河北低涡暴雨的统计及模拟诊断研究
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摘要
通过对河北省1991～2000年的夏季低涡暴雨资料的统计分析发现,造成该地区暴雨的低涡系统主要为西北涡,其次为东蒙冷涡,影响最少的是西南涡。西北涡主要影响太行山南部地区,东蒙冷涡主要影响燕山南麓,以7、8月份最多。西南涡暴雨仅发生在7月份。70%的西北涡暴雨,南方有台风或热带气旋出现。经向型西北涡的水汽源地主要是黄海和东海;纬向型西北涡和经向型东蒙冷涡的水汽源地主要是南海和孟加拉湾。500hPa中纬度经向型的环流形势更有利于低涡暴雨的持续性,降雨强度也更大:暴雨区一般出现在700hPa低涡暖切变附近、最大风速区的左侧。
利用MM5中尺度模式对2000年7月4日08时～5日20时(北京时)的低涡暴雨天气过程进行了数值模拟。通过对湿位涡及其倾向的诊断分析发现,低涡暴雨一般是落在低层位涡高值中心东侧,低层位涡的负值区的分布和变化与低涡暴雨的落区和移动相一致,高低层位涡的“正负值区垂直叠加”有利于低涡暴雨发生、发展。湿位涡的局地变化以及平流项和垂直输送项的变化,对低涡暴雨的强度和落区有指示作用。通过对中尺度扰动场的分析发现,此次降雨过程中,重力波的发展、传播经历了两个阶段:中尺度的正涡度和负散度中心两度向东北方向传播,以及随后北部的涡度散度中心减弱消失,使大的降雨中心两次向东北延伸又回落到南部。可见,重力波向东北的传播以及在南部地区的维持是降雨区的移动以及在南部地区维持加强的一个重要原因。通过分析低涡暴雨的稳定性条件,发现整个过程一直是对流不稳定的,且对流不稳定先于降水出现,降雨量随着对流不稳定的加强而增大,雨团中心也随着对流不稳定区的移动而移动。因此对流不稳定是此次降雨过程中中尺度雨团在华北南部停滞少动并加强的一个重要机制。
With statistical and synthetic analysis on the examples of low eddies rainstorm weathers between 1991-2000 of Hebei Province, it is indicated that the low eddies system of rainstorm is primarily for the Northwest eddies, to the next is for east-Mongolia cold eddies, the influence of southwest eddies is lighted. Northwest eddies affect mostly at south department of Taihang mountain, and east-Mongolia cold eddies primarily affect at Yanshan mountain southern foot, mostly at July and August. The southwest eddies rainstorm only take place in July. 70% of northwest eddies rainstorm accompany with typhoon or tropical cyclone at south. The vapour source is Yellow Sea or East China Sea in northwest vortex meridional circulation. And it is South China Sea or the Bay of Bengal in northwest vortex zonal circulation and east-Mongolia cold vortex meridional circulation. Midlatitude meridional circulations at 500hPa are advantageous to the rainstorm continuously and heavily. The general emergence of the rainstorm area is near the worm sheer line of low eddies, the left side of the biggest wind velocity area at 700hPa.By using MM5 model, numerical simulation is carried out for the rainstorm on 4th to 5th July, 2000.The result from diagnosis about moist potential vorticity and its tendency shows that, the vortex heavy rain usually locates the eastward part of high MPV center of vortex circulation in the lower troposphere, corresponding to the maximum negative region. It is advantage to the development of the vortex rainstorm that plus MPV zone just over minus one. The local variations of moist potential vorticity can indicate the locality of the heavy rain. Horizontal flow and vertial transportation of MPV play a important part in the varying of the heavy rain.The meco-scale disturbance field is analyzed. It is found that there are two periods through the development and spread of inertia-gravity wave. Meco-scale negative value center of vorticity and the positive value center of divergence spread towards northeast, and disappear later, corresponding with the rainfall center spread
towards northeast twice and return to south. So, inertia-gravity wave spreading towards northeast and maintaining in south is the important reason of rainfall region moving and continuously in south.Though analysis convection instability condition, it shows that it is convection instability in the whole process of heavy rain. The rainfall appears latter the convection instability, and strengthen along with it. Rainfall region moves with it at the same time. Convection instability is the important mechanism for meco-scale rainfall continuously in the south of North China.
利用MM5中尺度模式对2000年7月4日08时～5日20时(北京时)的低涡暴雨天气过程进行了数值模拟。通过对湿位涡及其倾向的诊断分析发现,低涡暴雨一般是落在低层位涡高值中心东侧,低层位涡的负值区的分布和变化与低涡暴雨的落区和移动相一致,高低层位涡的“正负值区垂直叠加”有利于低涡暴雨发生、发展。湿位涡的局地变化以及平流项和垂直输送项的变化,对低涡暴雨的强度和落区有指示作用。通过对中尺度扰动场的分析发现,此次降雨过程中,重力波的发展、传播经历了两个阶段:中尺度的正涡度和负散度中心两度向东北方向传播,以及随后北部的涡度散度中心减弱消失,使大的降雨中心两次向东北延伸又回落到南部。可见,重力波向东北的传播以及在南部地区的维持是降雨区的移动以及在南部地区维持加强的一个重要原因。通过分析低涡暴雨的稳定性条件,发现整个过程一直是对流不稳定的,且对流不稳定先于降水出现,降雨量随着对流不稳定的加强而增大,雨团中心也随着对流不稳定区的移动而移动。因此对流不稳定是此次降雨过程中中尺度雨团在华北南部停滞少动并加强的一个重要机制。
With statistical and synthetic analysis on the examples of low eddies rainstorm weathers between 1991-2000 of Hebei Province, it is indicated that the low eddies system of rainstorm is primarily for the Northwest eddies, to the next is for east-Mongolia cold eddies, the influence of southwest eddies is lighted. Northwest eddies affect mostly at south department of Taihang mountain, and east-Mongolia cold eddies primarily affect at Yanshan mountain southern foot, mostly at July and August. The southwest eddies rainstorm only take place in July. 70% of northwest eddies rainstorm accompany with typhoon or tropical cyclone at south. The vapour source is Yellow Sea or East China Sea in northwest vortex meridional circulation. And it is South China Sea or the Bay of Bengal in northwest vortex zonal circulation and east-Mongolia cold vortex meridional circulation. Midlatitude meridional circulations at 500hPa are advantageous to the rainstorm continuously and heavily. The general emergence of the rainstorm area is near the worm sheer line of low eddies, the left side of the biggest wind velocity area at 700hPa.By using MM5 model, numerical simulation is carried out for the rainstorm on 4th to 5th July, 2000.The result from diagnosis about moist potential vorticity and its tendency shows that, the vortex heavy rain usually locates the eastward part of high MPV center of vortex circulation in the lower troposphere, corresponding to the maximum negative region. It is advantage to the development of the vortex rainstorm that plus MPV zone just over minus one. The local variations of moist potential vorticity can indicate the locality of the heavy rain. Horizontal flow and vertial transportation of MPV play a important part in the varying of the heavy rain.The meco-scale disturbance field is analyzed. It is found that there are two periods through the development and spread of inertia-gravity wave. Meco-scale negative value center of vorticity and the positive value center of divergence spread towards northeast, and disappear later, corresponding with the rainfall center spread
towards northeast twice and return to south. So, inertia-gravity wave spreading towards northeast and maintaining in south is the important reason of rainfall region moving and continuously in south.Though analysis convection instability condition, it shows that it is convection instability in the whole process of heavy rain. The rainfall appears latter the convection instability, and strengthen along with it. Rainfall region moves with it at the same time. Convection instability is the important mechanism for meco-scale rainfall continuously in the south of North China.
引文
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[2] 陶诗言等.中国之暴雨.科学出版社,1980:25-34
[3] 陆尔,丁一汇,李月洪.1991年江淮特大暴雨的位涡分析与冷空气活动.应用气象学报,1995,5(3):267-274
[4] 王永中,杨大升.暴雨和低层流场的位涡,1984,8(4):411-417
[5] 吴国雄,蔡雅萍,唐晓菁.湿位涡和倾斜涡度发展,气象学报,1995,53(4):378-405
[6] 侯定臣.夏季江淮气旋的Ertel位涡诊断分析.气象学报,1991,49(2):141-150
[7] 李国平,刘行军.西南低涡暴雨的湿位涡诊断分析.应用气象学报,1994,5(3):354-360
[8] 王建中,马淑芬,丁一汇.位涡在暴雨成因分析中的应用.应用气象学报,1996,7(1):19-27
[9] 寿绍文,李耀辉,范可.暴雨中尺度气旋发展的等熵面位涡分析.气象学报,2001,59(5):560-567
[10] 牛宝山,丁治英,王劲松.一次爆发性气旋的发展与湿位涡关系的研究.南京气象学院学报,2003,26(1):7-16
[11] 高守亭,雷霆,周玉淑.强暴雨系统中湿位涡异常的诊断分析.应用气象学报,2002,13(6):662-669
[12] 朱利华,周伟灿,邹兰军.垂直切变流中非线性重力波及其相互作用.南京气象学院学报,2004,27(3):405-412
[13] 林锡怀,钱家声.我国东部沿海地区“高后型飑线”的一种形成机制.应用气象学报,1996,7(3):330-335
[14] 崔新建,焦国树,王平等.中尺度重力波的触发作用在一次暴雨个例中的检验.河南气象,1999,1,19-20
[15] 许小峰,孙照渤.非地转平衡流激发的重力惯性波对梅雨锋暴雨影响的动力学研究.气象学报,2003,61(6):656-660
[16] 河北省气象局.河北省天气预报手册.北京:气象出版社,1987:113-133
[17] EliassenAand Kleinschmidt E. Dynamics Meterorology. Handbuch der physik. S. Hugge, Ed. Springer-verlag, 1957,48,1-154.
[18] HoskinsB J,Mcintyre M E and Robertson A W on the use and siginificanceof isentropic potential vorticity maps, Quart J R, Meteor soc, 1985, vol. 111(470):877-946
[19] 吴国雄,蔡雅萍.风垂直切变和下滑倾斜涡度发展.大气科学,1997,21(3):273-281
[20] 刘还珠,张绍晴.湿位涡与强降水天气的三维结构.应用气象学报,1996,7(3):275-284
[21] 王川,寿绍文.一次青藏高原东侧大暴雨过程的诊断分析.气象,2003,29(7):7-12
[22] 范可,琚建华,范学峰.湿位涡诊断分析在东南亚降水中的应用.气象科技,2003,31(1):23-28
[23] 田珍富,腾俏彬,王作述.一次局地特大暴雨湿位涡的中尺度分析.热带气象学报,1998,14(2):163-172
[24] 夏大庆,郑良杰,董双林等.气象场几种中尺度分离算子及其比较.大气科学,1983,7 (3):303-311
[25] 陈明,傅抱璞,于强.山区地形对暴雨的影响[J].地理学报,1995,50(3):256-262
[26] 范广洲,吕世华.地形对华北地区夏季降水影响的数值模拟研究[J].高原气象,1999,18(4):659-667
[27] 徐国强,胡欣,苏华.太行山地形对“96.8”暴雨影响的数值试验研究[J].气象,1999,25(7):3-7
[28] 徐国强,李小艳,李江波.太行山地形对“99.8”暴雨影响的数值试验[J].河北气象,2000,19(1):1-3
[29] 孟智勇,徐祥德,陈联寿.9606号台风与中纬度系统相互作用的中尺度特征.气象学报,2002,60(1):32-39
[30] 李江南,蒙伟光,闫敬华等.热带风暴Fitow(0114)暴雨的中尺度特征及成因分析.热带气象学报,2005,21(1):24-32
[31] 于玉斌,姚秀萍.“96.8”暴雨过程的尺度分离动能方程的诊断.应用气象学报,1999,10(1):49-58
[32] 连志鸾,王春彦,王丽荣.“96.8”特大暴雨中低层流场的滤波分析.气象,1999,25(8):50-53
[33] 王川,寿绍文.一次青藏高原东侧大暴雨过程的诊断分析.气象,2003,29(7):7-12.
[34] 赵宇,杨晓霞,孙兴池.影响山东的台风暴雨天气的湿位涡诊断分析.气象,2004,30(4):15-19.
[35] 寿绍文,李耀辉,范可.暴雨中尺度气旋发展的等熵面位涡分析,气象学报,2001,59(5):560-567.
[36] 于玉斌,姚秀萍.对华北一次特大台风暴雨过程的位涡诊断分析.高原气象,2000,19(1):111-120.
[37] 寿绍文,励申申,姚秀萍.中尺度气象学.气象出版社,2003.
[38] 杨福全,杨大升.1991年江淮流域暴雨中不同尺度系统的相互作用.应用气象学报,1996,7(1),9-19.
[39] 党人庆.中尺度滤波法及对中间尺度云团分析的初步应用.气象科学.1984,2:9-14.
[40] 徐元泰,丁一汇.气象场的客观分析和中尺度滤波.大气科学.1988,12(3):247-282.
[41] 蔡则怡,余波.带通滤波在华北胞线中的应用.气象,1988.14(1):23-27.
[42] 《华北暴雨》编写组.华北暴雨,气象出版社1992:87-105.
[2] 陶诗言等.中国之暴雨.科学出版社,1980:25-34
[3] 陆尔,丁一汇,李月洪.1991年江淮特大暴雨的位涡分析与冷空气活动.应用气象学报,1995,5(3):267-274
[4] 王永中,杨大升.暴雨和低层流场的位涡,1984,8(4):411-417
[5] 吴国雄,蔡雅萍,唐晓菁.湿位涡和倾斜涡度发展,气象学报,1995,53(4):378-405
[6] 侯定臣.夏季江淮气旋的Ertel位涡诊断分析.气象学报,1991,49(2):141-150
[7] 李国平,刘行军.西南低涡暴雨的湿位涡诊断分析.应用气象学报,1994,5(3):354-360
[8] 王建中,马淑芬,丁一汇.位涡在暴雨成因分析中的应用.应用气象学报,1996,7(1):19-27
[9] 寿绍文,李耀辉,范可.暴雨中尺度气旋发展的等熵面位涡分析.气象学报,2001,59(5):560-567
[10] 牛宝山,丁治英,王劲松.一次爆发性气旋的发展与湿位涡关系的研究.南京气象学院学报,2003,26(1):7-16
[11] 高守亭,雷霆,周玉淑.强暴雨系统中湿位涡异常的诊断分析.应用气象学报,2002,13(6):662-669
[12] 朱利华,周伟灿,邹兰军.垂直切变流中非线性重力波及其相互作用.南京气象学院学报,2004,27(3):405-412
[13] 林锡怀,钱家声.我国东部沿海地区“高后型飑线”的一种形成机制.应用气象学报,1996,7(3):330-335
[14] 崔新建,焦国树,王平等.中尺度重力波的触发作用在一次暴雨个例中的检验.河南气象,1999,1,19-20
[15] 许小峰,孙照渤.非地转平衡流激发的重力惯性波对梅雨锋暴雨影响的动力学研究.气象学报,2003,61(6):656-660
[16] 河北省气象局.河北省天气预报手册.北京:气象出版社,1987:113-133
[17] EliassenAand Kleinschmidt E. Dynamics Meterorology. Handbuch der physik. S. Hugge, Ed. Springer-verlag, 1957,48,1-154.
[18] HoskinsB J,Mcintyre M E and Robertson A W on the use and siginificanceof isentropic potential vorticity maps, Quart J R, Meteor soc, 1985, vol. 111(470):877-946
[19] 吴国雄,蔡雅萍.风垂直切变和下滑倾斜涡度发展.大气科学,1997,21(3):273-281
[20] 刘还珠,张绍晴.湿位涡与强降水天气的三维结构.应用气象学报,1996,7(3):275-284
[21] 王川,寿绍文.一次青藏高原东侧大暴雨过程的诊断分析.气象,2003,29(7):7-12
[22] 范可,琚建华,范学峰.湿位涡诊断分析在东南亚降水中的应用.气象科技,2003,31(1):23-28
[23] 田珍富,腾俏彬,王作述.一次局地特大暴雨湿位涡的中尺度分析.热带气象学报,1998,14(2):163-172
[24] 夏大庆,郑良杰,董双林等.气象场几种中尺度分离算子及其比较.大气科学,1983,7 (3):303-311
[25] 陈明,傅抱璞,于强.山区地形对暴雨的影响[J].地理学报,1995,50(3):256-262
[26] 范广洲,吕世华.地形对华北地区夏季降水影响的数值模拟研究[J].高原气象,1999,18(4):659-667
[27] 徐国强,胡欣,苏华.太行山地形对“96.8”暴雨影响的数值试验研究[J].气象,1999,25(7):3-7
[28] 徐国强,李小艳,李江波.太行山地形对“99.8”暴雨影响的数值试验[J].河北气象,2000,19(1):1-3
[29] 孟智勇,徐祥德,陈联寿.9606号台风与中纬度系统相互作用的中尺度特征.气象学报,2002,60(1):32-39
[30] 李江南,蒙伟光,闫敬华等.热带风暴Fitow(0114)暴雨的中尺度特征及成因分析.热带气象学报,2005,21(1):24-32
[31] 于玉斌,姚秀萍.“96.8”暴雨过程的尺度分离动能方程的诊断.应用气象学报,1999,10(1):49-58
[32] 连志鸾,王春彦,王丽荣.“96.8”特大暴雨中低层流场的滤波分析.气象,1999,25(8):50-53
[33] 王川,寿绍文.一次青藏高原东侧大暴雨过程的诊断分析.气象,2003,29(7):7-12.
[34] 赵宇,杨晓霞,孙兴池.影响山东的台风暴雨天气的湿位涡诊断分析.气象,2004,30(4):15-19.
[35] 寿绍文,李耀辉,范可.暴雨中尺度气旋发展的等熵面位涡分析,气象学报,2001,59(5):560-567.
[36] 于玉斌,姚秀萍.对华北一次特大台风暴雨过程的位涡诊断分析.高原气象,2000,19(1):111-120.
[37] 寿绍文,励申申,姚秀萍.中尺度气象学.气象出版社,2003.
[38] 杨福全,杨大升.1991年江淮流域暴雨中不同尺度系统的相互作用.应用气象学报,1996,7(1),9-19.
[39] 党人庆.中尺度滤波法及对中间尺度云团分析的初步应用.气象科学.1984,2:9-14.
[40] 徐元泰,丁一汇.气象场的客观分析和中尺度滤波.大气科学.1988,12(3):247-282.
[41] 蔡则怡,余波.带通滤波在华北胞线中的应用.气象,1988.14(1):23-27.
[42] 《华北暴雨》编写组.华北暴雨,气象出版社1992:87-105.