近50年中国冬季气温和冬季风以及区域环流的年代际变化研究
|
摘要
IPCC第五次评估报告指出，全球平均气温自1998年以来并没有呈现显著上升（基本趋平），即进入所谓全球变暖趋缓或停顿时期，并且这种变化还有可能持续一段时间。在这一背景下，重新对我国气温及其相关的区域环流的年代际变化特征进行研究是具有科学和实际意义的，有助于深入理解全球气候变化对区域温度和环流影响的过程和机制。本文的研究主要得到下列结论：
（1）对中国大陆1960~2013年53个冬季气温的年代际变化特征进行分析和气候跃变检验发现，中国冬季气温在整体变暖的趋势上叠加有年代际波动，可划分为冷期、暖期和停滞期三个时期。并据此对比分析三个阶段内东亚大气环流和东亚冬季风强度的差异，结果表明，伴随着气温的冷-暖-冷变化，东亚冬季风的强度也出现了强-弱-强的变化。并且东亚高空急流、东亚大槽和西伯利亚高压也出现了类似的年代际变化。
在上述研究的基础上，将PDO的年代际变化分量作为背景，分析NAM/AO和ENSO不同配置下对中国冬季气温和东亚冬季风环流的影响，结果发现，PDO和ENSO这两种海洋表层温度变率模态与NAM/AO的不同配置，对中国冬季气温和冬季风以及极端低温事件有不同的影响。它们不仅影响中国冬季气温一致型（EOF1）的年代际变化，而且也可以影响到冬季气温南北反相分布型（EOF2）的变化，这从自然原因方面解释了1980s和1990s中国快速变暖与最近十年北方降温趋势较为明显的观测事实。研究也指出当PDO为负位相时，NAM/AO也常出现负位相。
（2）本文进一步揭示了NAM/AO直接影响我国冬季气温的两种方式。对此着重分析了NAM/AO指数异常事件中北极冷空气活动的优势路径及其对中国冬季气温的影响途径和方式。研究结果表明，在正NAM/AO指数异常事件中，北极地区近地面冷空气大多被局限在中高纬地区，极区为气旋式运动。极区冷空气较少地影响到我国北方地区，气温偏高。但在指数下降过程中，东欧槽和南支槽加深，这有利于欧洲中高纬冷空气向东侵入中国，同时也利于孟加拉湾水汽向中国华南地区输送，为造成大范围寒潮天气甚至冰冻雨雪天气提供了有利条件。第二种影响方式，是发生在NAM/AO为负指数异常时期，这种情况下极区存在反气旋式运动，同时中纬度地区的经向环流型加强，并且在指数下降阶段出现了强烈影响欧亚大陆的冷空气活动路径，冷空气团可以直接进入我国东北部地区，造成东北地区大范围的寒潮暴雪等剧烈天气，同时可进一步向南传播造成我国东部地区的大范围降温。
（3）在上述大尺度环流背景下，本文分析和讨论了不同类型的强区域持续性极端低温事件的发生频率和路径。结果表明，我国的强区域持续性极端低温事件在冷期多发且强度更强，而暖期较少强度减弱，停滞期爆发频率增加。尤其是在NAM/AO负指数时期，东北型极端低温事件的爆发频率和强度增加。
（4）本文还用6个CMIP5模式评估和预估了中国冬季气温变化。模拟的结果表明，模式大多基本能模拟出冷暖时期的突变时间，并且中国区域冬季气温一致型（EOF1）增暖的变化趋势模拟较好。模式结果也可以大体反映出南北反向型（EOF2）的时空变化。但在冷暖期的突变时间点以及两个模态的模拟上，BCC-CSM-1.1模式模拟的结果与实际观测相比较其他模式更为符合。在高、中、低三种排放情景下的模式预测结果表明，未来中国区域的冬季气温仍呈现上升趋势，并叠加有年代际变化，其中停滞期大致在2010~2025年期间结束，之后中国冬季气温继续加速上升。
The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report claims that the global mean surface air temperature hasremained flat for the past15years, termed the global warming hiatus period. And some research resultssuggest that there is a chance that the current observed hiatus could extend for several more years. Undermentioned backgrounds, analyzing the interdecadal changes of the surface air temperature (SAT) overChina mainland anew is a potential scientific value and practical significance. Considering that thewintertime SAT is characterized by the significant interdecadal time scale, the study on which will deepthe present understanding of the global warming and promote the predictability of the future SAT. Theconclusions are derived as follows:
(1) Based on the daily air surface temperature data of468meteorological observation stations inthe mainland of China from1960~2013, the spatial and temporal characteristics of winter temperatureare analyzed. Firstly, the linear regression and regime shift detection methods are used to identify thetendency and abrupt point. The result is that the winter temperature shows an interdecadal variabilitysuperimposed on the long-term warming trend, with the cold period in1960/61~1985/86, the warmperiod in1986/87~2005/06and the hiatus period in2006/07~2012/13. To understand the underlyingmechanism for the formation of the three periods, the atmospheric circulation systems are compared byusing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. It is found that the cold/hiatus (warm) period is characterizedby weak (strong) zonal wind in the middle and high latitude of the Northern Hemisphere, strong (weak)East Asian Trough on500hPa geopotential height field, strong (weak) downdraft after the trough, strong (weak) Siberian High and enhanced (weakened) northeast surface wind over Asian continent.These provide favorable circulation conditions for cold (warm) winter in the mainland of China.Furthermore, by influencing the East Asian winter monsoon circulations the Northern HemisphereAnnular Mode (NAM)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) puts an impact on the winter temperature, especially thewinter minimum temperature on the interdecadal timescale.
On the other hand, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is positively correlated to the wintertemperature on the interdecadal timescale. Subsequently, the results indicate that with the modulation ofthe interdecadal variability of the PDO the combined effects of the NAM/AO and ENSO not onlyinfluence the first EOF1mode that has an identical signal in whole China, but also influence the secondEOF mode that has a seesaw pattern between southern and northern China. In addition, thesuperimposition of EOF1and EOF2probably causes persistent warming winters in the1980s and1990s and may be responsible for the significant cooling trend during the last seven years in NorthwestChina and Northeast China. The results also point out that the NAM/AO tends to be at negative phaseduring negative phase of the PDO.
(2) The paper confirms that the NAM/AO is an important factor affecting winter SAT over China.This is because that on the synoptic time scale the NAM/AO has an influence on the movement of thenear surface cold air in the Arctic, which is very important in the outbreak of the cold wave. The paperfocuses on analyzing the superior trajectory of the near surface cold air in the Arctic during the abnormalNAM/AO index events and how these cold airs can affect the SAT over China. The results show thatduring the positive NAM/AO index event, the near surface air is restricted in the Arctic and high latitudeareas, characterized by cyclonical trajectory. In this case, the Arctic cold air seldom sweeps down overnorth China so that the winter SAT is warmer than normal. During the NAM/AO index descentingphase, the circulation pattern is beneficial to intrusions of the cold air from mid-high latitudes of Europeto southern China and transporting of the water vapor from the Bay of Bengal to South China with the East European Trough and the southern branch trough deepening, which provide favorable atmosphericconditions for the low temperature weather, for example the cold wave or even snow calamity. On thecontrary, during the negative NAM/AO index event, the near surface air flows out the Arctic in theanticyclonical trajectory. At the same time, the meridional circulation pattern is intensified in themid-high latitudes. During the NAM/AO index descenting phase, the cold air can directly affect thenortheast part of China and the Mongolia Cold Wave key area. The latter cooperates with otheratmospheric circulation systems can induce cold waves in the eastern China.
(3) However, the NAM/AO is not the single factor that modulating the outbreak of cold wave andother low temperature weather that are subject to many other circulation patterns. The paper analyzesthe different patterns of the strong regional prolonged low temperature events (RPLTE) in China. Theresults show the frequency and intensity of the RPLTE is higher and stronger in the cold period, whilethe frequency and intensity is lower and weaker in the warm period. So far the frequency of the RPLTEis increasing during the hiatus period. In general the NAM/AO index is negative during early andmature stage of the Northeastern type and the Eastern type of the RPLTE, while the relationshipbetween the other types of the RPLTE and the NAM/AO index is uncertain.
(4) The simulated capability of6global system modes released by Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase5(CMIP5) is tested for the wintertime SAT over China. The6modelscan reasonably reproduce the evolution of wintertime SAT over China during the1960~2005incapturing the long term trend of warming especially in the North China. Also, the6models can almostcapture the spatiotemporal structures of the second EOF mode that has a seesaw pattern betweensouthern and northern China. The models of BCC-CSM1.1can detect the regime shift in the EOF1corresponding normalized time coefficient of the wintertime SAT over China.6model scenarioprojections of future climate change during2006~2035indicate that the wintertime SAT over Chinawould continue to rise, while the intensities are scenario-dependent. The results indicate that the wintertemperature shows an interdecadal variability superimposed on the long-term warming trend, with thehiatus period ending around2010~2025. After that the wintertime SAT over China will increase warming.
（1）对中国大陆1960~2013年53个冬季气温的年代际变化特征进行分析和气候跃变检验发现，中国冬季气温在整体变暖的趋势上叠加有年代际波动，可划分为冷期、暖期和停滞期三个时期。并据此对比分析三个阶段内东亚大气环流和东亚冬季风强度的差异，结果表明，伴随着气温的冷-暖-冷变化，东亚冬季风的强度也出现了强-弱-强的变化。并且东亚高空急流、东亚大槽和西伯利亚高压也出现了类似的年代际变化。
在上述研究的基础上，将PDO的年代际变化分量作为背景，分析NAM/AO和ENSO不同配置下对中国冬季气温和东亚冬季风环流的影响，结果发现，PDO和ENSO这两种海洋表层温度变率模态与NAM/AO的不同配置，对中国冬季气温和冬季风以及极端低温事件有不同的影响。它们不仅影响中国冬季气温一致型（EOF1）的年代际变化，而且也可以影响到冬季气温南北反相分布型（EOF2）的变化，这从自然原因方面解释了1980s和1990s中国快速变暖与最近十年北方降温趋势较为明显的观测事实。研究也指出当PDO为负位相时，NAM/AO也常出现负位相。
（2）本文进一步揭示了NAM/AO直接影响我国冬季气温的两种方式。对此着重分析了NAM/AO指数异常事件中北极冷空气活动的优势路径及其对中国冬季气温的影响途径和方式。研究结果表明，在正NAM/AO指数异常事件中，北极地区近地面冷空气大多被局限在中高纬地区，极区为气旋式运动。极区冷空气较少地影响到我国北方地区，气温偏高。但在指数下降过程中，东欧槽和南支槽加深，这有利于欧洲中高纬冷空气向东侵入中国，同时也利于孟加拉湾水汽向中国华南地区输送，为造成大范围寒潮天气甚至冰冻雨雪天气提供了有利条件。第二种影响方式，是发生在NAM/AO为负指数异常时期，这种情况下极区存在反气旋式运动，同时中纬度地区的经向环流型加强，并且在指数下降阶段出现了强烈影响欧亚大陆的冷空气活动路径，冷空气团可以直接进入我国东北部地区，造成东北地区大范围的寒潮暴雪等剧烈天气，同时可进一步向南传播造成我国东部地区的大范围降温。
（3）在上述大尺度环流背景下，本文分析和讨论了不同类型的强区域持续性极端低温事件的发生频率和路径。结果表明，我国的强区域持续性极端低温事件在冷期多发且强度更强，而暖期较少强度减弱，停滞期爆发频率增加。尤其是在NAM/AO负指数时期，东北型极端低温事件的爆发频率和强度增加。
（4）本文还用6个CMIP5模式评估和预估了中国冬季气温变化。模拟的结果表明，模式大多基本能模拟出冷暖时期的突变时间，并且中国区域冬季气温一致型（EOF1）增暖的变化趋势模拟较好。模式结果也可以大体反映出南北反向型（EOF2）的时空变化。但在冷暖期的突变时间点以及两个模态的模拟上，BCC-CSM-1.1模式模拟的结果与实际观测相比较其他模式更为符合。在高、中、低三种排放情景下的模式预测结果表明，未来中国区域的冬季气温仍呈现上升趋势，并叠加有年代际变化，其中停滞期大致在2010~2025年期间结束，之后中国冬季气温继续加速上升。
The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report claims that the global mean surface air temperature hasremained flat for the past15years, termed the global warming hiatus period. And some research resultssuggest that there is a chance that the current observed hiatus could extend for several more years. Undermentioned backgrounds, analyzing the interdecadal changes of the surface air temperature (SAT) overChina mainland anew is a potential scientific value and practical significance. Considering that thewintertime SAT is characterized by the significant interdecadal time scale, the study on which will deepthe present understanding of the global warming and promote the predictability of the future SAT. Theconclusions are derived as follows:
(1) Based on the daily air surface temperature data of468meteorological observation stations inthe mainland of China from1960~2013, the spatial and temporal characteristics of winter temperatureare analyzed. Firstly, the linear regression and regime shift detection methods are used to identify thetendency and abrupt point. The result is that the winter temperature shows an interdecadal variabilitysuperimposed on the long-term warming trend, with the cold period in1960/61~1985/86, the warmperiod in1986/87~2005/06and the hiatus period in2006/07~2012/13. To understand the underlyingmechanism for the formation of the three periods, the atmospheric circulation systems are compared byusing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. It is found that the cold/hiatus (warm) period is characterizedby weak (strong) zonal wind in the middle and high latitude of the Northern Hemisphere, strong (weak)East Asian Trough on500hPa geopotential height field, strong (weak) downdraft after the trough, strong (weak) Siberian High and enhanced (weakened) northeast surface wind over Asian continent.These provide favorable circulation conditions for cold (warm) winter in the mainland of China.Furthermore, by influencing the East Asian winter monsoon circulations the Northern HemisphereAnnular Mode (NAM)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) puts an impact on the winter temperature, especially thewinter minimum temperature on the interdecadal timescale.
On the other hand, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is positively correlated to the wintertemperature on the interdecadal timescale. Subsequently, the results indicate that with the modulation ofthe interdecadal variability of the PDO the combined effects of the NAM/AO and ENSO not onlyinfluence the first EOF1mode that has an identical signal in whole China, but also influence the secondEOF mode that has a seesaw pattern between southern and northern China. In addition, thesuperimposition of EOF1and EOF2probably causes persistent warming winters in the1980s and1990s and may be responsible for the significant cooling trend during the last seven years in NorthwestChina and Northeast China. The results also point out that the NAM/AO tends to be at negative phaseduring negative phase of the PDO.
(2) The paper confirms that the NAM/AO is an important factor affecting winter SAT over China.This is because that on the synoptic time scale the NAM/AO has an influence on the movement of thenear surface cold air in the Arctic, which is very important in the outbreak of the cold wave. The paperfocuses on analyzing the superior trajectory of the near surface cold air in the Arctic during the abnormalNAM/AO index events and how these cold airs can affect the SAT over China. The results show thatduring the positive NAM/AO index event, the near surface air is restricted in the Arctic and high latitudeareas, characterized by cyclonical trajectory. In this case, the Arctic cold air seldom sweeps down overnorth China so that the winter SAT is warmer than normal. During the NAM/AO index descentingphase, the circulation pattern is beneficial to intrusions of the cold air from mid-high latitudes of Europeto southern China and transporting of the water vapor from the Bay of Bengal to South China with the East European Trough and the southern branch trough deepening, which provide favorable atmosphericconditions for the low temperature weather, for example the cold wave or even snow calamity. On thecontrary, during the negative NAM/AO index event, the near surface air flows out the Arctic in theanticyclonical trajectory. At the same time, the meridional circulation pattern is intensified in themid-high latitudes. During the NAM/AO index descenting phase, the cold air can directly affect thenortheast part of China and the Mongolia Cold Wave key area. The latter cooperates with otheratmospheric circulation systems can induce cold waves in the eastern China.
(3) However, the NAM/AO is not the single factor that modulating the outbreak of cold wave andother low temperature weather that are subject to many other circulation patterns. The paper analyzesthe different patterns of the strong regional prolonged low temperature events (RPLTE) in China. Theresults show the frequency and intensity of the RPLTE is higher and stronger in the cold period, whilethe frequency and intensity is lower and weaker in the warm period. So far the frequency of the RPLTEis increasing during the hiatus period. In general the NAM/AO index is negative during early andmature stage of the Northeastern type and the Eastern type of the RPLTE, while the relationshipbetween the other types of the RPLTE and the NAM/AO index is uncertain.
(4) The simulated capability of6global system modes released by Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase5(CMIP5) is tested for the wintertime SAT over China. The6modelscan reasonably reproduce the evolution of wintertime SAT over China during the1960~2005incapturing the long term trend of warming especially in the North China. Also, the6models can almostcapture the spatiotemporal structures of the second EOF mode that has a seesaw pattern betweensouthern and northern China. The models of BCC-CSM1.1can detect the regime shift in the EOF1corresponding normalized time coefficient of the wintertime SAT over China.6model scenarioprojections of future climate change during2006~2035indicate that the wintertime SAT over Chinawould continue to rise, while the intensities are scenario-dependent. The results indicate that the wintertemperature shows an interdecadal variability superimposed on the long-term warming trend, with thehiatus period ending around2010~2025. After that the wintertime SAT over China will increase warming.
引文
1. Alexander M A, Bhatt U S, Walsh J E. The atmospheric response to realistic sea ice anomalies in an AGCM duringwinter[J]. J Clim,2004,17(5):890-905.
2. Alexander L V, Zhang X, Peterson T C, et al. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperatureand precipitation[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres (1984–2012),2006,111(D5).
3. Ambaum M H P, Hoskins B J and Stephenson D B. Arctic Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Journal ofClimate,2001,14(16):3495-3507.
4.白爱娟,翟盘茂.中国近百年气候变化的自然原因讨论[J].气象科学,2007,27(5):584-590.
5. Baldwin M P, Cheng X and Dunkerton T J. Observed correlations between winter-mean tropospheric andstratospheric circulation anomalies[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,1994,21(12):1141-1144
6. Baldwin M P and Dunkerton T J. Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1999,104(24):30,937-30,946
7. Baldwin M P and Dunkerton T J. Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes[J]. Science,2001,294(5542):581-584.
8. Baldwin M P, Thompson D W J, Shuckburgh E F, et al. Weather from the Stratosphere[J]. Science,2003,301(5631):317-318
9. Baldwin M P, Stephenson D B, Thompson D W J, et al. Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weatherforecasts[J]. Science,2003,301(5633):636-640
10. Bates G T. Influence of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on the winter climate of East China[J]. Advances inAtmospheric Sciences,2007,24(1):126-135.
11. Benedict J J, Lee S and Feldstein S B. Synoptic view of the North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,2004,61(2):121-144.
12. Blackmon M L. A climatological spectral study of the500mb geopotential height of the Northern Hemisphere[J].Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,1976,33(8):1607-1623
13. Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A et al. Characteristics of daily and extreme temperature over Canada[J]. J.Climate,2001,5(14):1959-1976.
14.布和朝鲁，纪立人.东亚冬季风活动异常与热带太平洋海温异常[J].科学通报，1999,44(3):252-259.
15. Carillo A, Ruti P M and Navarra A. Storm tracks and zonal mean flow variability: Acomparison between observedand simulated data[J]. Climate Dynamics,2000,16(2-3):219-228.
16. Chan J C L, Li Chongyin. The East Asia winter monsoon [M]//Chang CP. East Asian Monsoon. Singapore: WorldScientific Publishing Co. Pet. Ltd,2004,54-106
17. Chang C P, Lau K M. Northeasterly cold surges and near-equatorial disturbances over the winter MONEX areaduring December1974, Part II: Planetary-scale aspect[J]. Mon.Wea.Rev.,1980,108(3):298-312.
18. Chang C P and Lun K M. Short term planetary scale interaction over the tropics and the mid-latitudes duringnorthern winer. PartⅠ: Cnotrast between active and inactive periods[J]. Mon Wea Rev,1982,110(8):933-946.
19. Charney J G and Drazin P G. Propagation of planetaryscale disturbances from the lower into the upperatmosphere[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,1961,66(83):83-109.
20.陈海山,孙照渤,闵锦忠.欧亚大陆冬季积雪异常与东亚冬季风及中国冬季气温的关系[J].南京气象学院学报.1999,22(4):609-615.
21.陈海山,孙照渤.欧亚积雪异常分布对冬季大气环流的影响I.观测研究[J].大气科学.2003,27(3):304-316.
22. Chen H S, Zhang Y. Sensitivity experiments of impacts of large-scale urbanization in East China on East Asianwinter monsoon[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58(7):809-815.
23.陈隆勋,周秀骥,李维亮.中国近80年来气候变化特征及其形成机制[J].气象学报,2004,62(5):634-646.
24.陈佩燕,倪允琪.近50年来全球海温异常对我国东部地区冬季温度异常影响的诊断研究[J].热带气象学报,2001,17(4):371-380.
25.陈文. El Nino和La Nina事件对东亚冬、夏季风循环的影响[J].大气科学,2002,26(5):595-610.
26. Chen W, H F Graf, and R Huang. The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon and its relation to thesummer monsoon[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2000,17(1):48-60.
27. Chen W, Graf H F and Takahashi M. Observed interannual oscillation of planetary wave forcing in the NorthernHemisphere winter[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2002,29(22):2073, doi:10.1029/2002GL016062
28. Chen W, Takahashi M and Graf H F. Interannual variations of stationary planetary wave activity in the northernwinter troposphere and stratosphere and their relations to NAM and SST[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,2003,108(24):4797, doi:10.1029/2003JD003834
29.陈文,魏科,王林等.东亚冬季风的气候变异和机理以及平流层过程的影响[J].大气科学.2013,37(2):425-438.
30.陈隽,孙淑清.东亚冬季风异常与全球大气环流变化: Ⅰ.强弱冬季风影响的对比研究[J].大气科学,1999,23(1):101-111.
31.陈磊.近50年我国极端低温事件的特征及其成因的初步研究[D].兰州大学,2011.
32. Cheng Xinhua, Gregor Nitsche, John M Wallace. Robustness of Low-Frequency Circulation Patterns Derivedfrom EOF and Rotated EOFAnalyses[J]. J. Climate,1995,8(6):1709-1713.
33. Cheung Ho Nam, Zhou Wen, Hing Yim Mok, Wu Man Chi. Relationship between Ural–Siberian Blocking and theEast Asian Winter Monsoon in Relation to the Arctic Oscillation and the El Ni o–Southern Oscillation[J]. J.Climate,2012,25():4242–4257.
34.崔晓鹏,孙照渤.东亚冬季风强度指数及其变化的分析[J].南京气象学院学报,1999,22(3):321-325.
35. Cutlip K. Northern influence[J]. Weatherwise,2000,53(2):10-11
36. Deser C. On the teleconnectivity of the "Arctic Oscillation"[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2000,27(6):779-782
37. Deser, Clara, John E. Walsh, Michael S. Timlin. Arctic Sea Ice Variability in the Context of Recent AtmosphericCirculation Trends[J]. J. Climate,2000,13(3):617–633.
38. DeWeaver E and Nigam S. Do Stationary Waves Drive the Zonal-Mean Jet Anomalies of the Northern Winter[J].Journal of Climate,2000,13(13):2160-2176
39. Dickinson R E. Planetary Rossby waves propagating vertically through weak westerly wind wave guides[J].Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,1968,25(6):984-1002
40. Ding R, K Ha, and J Li. Interdecadal shift in the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and thetropical Indian Ocean[J]. Climate Dyn.,2010,34(7-8):1059-1071.
41.丁一汇.东亚冬季风的统计研究[J].热带气象,1990,6(2):119-128
42.丁一汇.东亚寒潮冷空气的传播和行星尺度作用[J].应用气象学报.1991,2(2):718-724
43.丁一汇，温市耕，李运锦.冬季西伯利亚高压动力结构的研究[J].气象学报.1991,49(4):430-439
44.丁一汇，戴晓苏.中国近百年来的温度变化[J].气象学报,1994,13(5):513-525.
45.丁一汇.高等天气学[M].北京：气象出版社,2004,257pp.
46.丁一汇，任国玉，石广玉.气候变化国家评估报告：中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展.2006,2(1)3-8
47.丁一汇，任国玉，赵宗慈，等.中国气候变化的检测及预估[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2007,1(1):1-10.
48.丁一汇.全球气候变化中的物理问题[J].物理,2009,38(2):71-83.
49. Ding Yihui and Krishnamurti T N. Heat budget of the Siberian High and the winter monsoon[J]. Mon Wea Rev,1987,115(10):2428-2499.
50. Ding Yihui. Build-up, air mass transformation and propagation of Siberian high and its relations to cold surge inEast Asia [J]. Meteorology andAtmospheric Physics,1990,44(1-4), pp281-292.
51. Ding Yihui, Ren Guoyu, Zhao Zongci, et al. Detection, Causes and Projection of Climate Change over China: AnOverview of Recent Progress[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.2007,24(6):954-971
52.丁裕国,梁建茵,刘吉峰. EOF/PPCA诊断气象变量场问题的新探讨[J].大气科学,2005,29(2):307-313.
53. Dunkerton T J. Midwinter Deceleration of the Subtropical Mesospheric Jet and Interannual Variability of theHigh-Latitude Flow in UKMOAnalyses[J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1968,57(23):3838-3855
54. Easterling D R, Horton B, Jones P D, et al. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe[J]. Science,1997,277(5324):364-367.
55. Easterling D R and Wehner M F. Is the climate warming or cooling?[J].2009, Geophysical Research Letters,36(8).
56.方修琦，张学珍，戴玉娟，等.1951-2005年中国大陆冬季温度变化过程的区域差异[J].地理科学，2010,30(4):571-576.
57. Feldstein S B. The timescale, power spectra, and climate noise properties of teleconnection patterns[J]. Journal ofClimate,2000,13(24):4430-4440.
58. Feldstein S B. The recent trend and variance increase of the annular mode[J]. Journal of climate,2002,15(1):88-94.
59. Feldstein S B. The dynamics of NAO teleconnection pattern growth and decay[J]. Quarterly Journal of the RoyalMeteorological Society,2003,129(589):901-924
60. Feldstein S B and Franzke C. Are the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Northern Annular Mode Distinguishable[J].Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,2006,63(11):2915-2930.
61. Franzke C, Lee S and Feldstein S B. Is the North Atlantic Oscillation a Breaking Wave[J]. Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,2004,61(2):145-160
62.高辉.东亚冬季风指数及其对东亚大气环流异常的表现[J].气象学报,2007,65(2):272-279
63.高辉,刘芸芸,王勇.冬季风异常对中国春季北方沙尘日数的影响[J].高原山地气象研究,2012,32(1):18-21
64.高守亭，陶诗言，丁一汇.寒潮期间高空波动与东亚急流的相互作用[J].大气科学.1992,16(6):209-219
65. Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci, Ding Yihui, Huang Ronghui and Filippo Giorhi. Climate Change Due to GreenhouseEffects in China as Simulated by a Regional Climate Model-Part Ⅰ：Evaluation of the Model Simulations[J].ACTAMETEOROLOGICASINICA.2003,17(4):406-416
66. Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci, Ding Yihui, Huang Ronghui and Filippo Giorhi. Climate Change Due to GreenhouseEffects in China as Simulated by a Regional Climate Model-Part Ⅱ: Climate Change[J]. ACTAMETEOROLOGICASINICA.2003,17(4):417-427
67. Gates W L. A statistical analysis of Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure patterns accompanying high and lowpolar pressure deficit[D]. Bachelor's thesis, M.I.T., Cambridge, MA.1950
68. Gong D Y, Wang S W, Zhu J H. East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic oscillation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2001,28(10):2073-2076.
69.龚道溢，王绍武.西伯利亚高压的长期变化及全球变暖可能影响的研究[J].地理学报,1999,54(2):125-133.
70.龚道溢,王绍武.近百年我国的异常暖冬与冷冬[J].灾害学,1999,14(2):63-68.
71.龚道溢，朱锦红，王绍武.西伯利亚高压对亚洲大陆的气候影响分析[J].高原气象，2002,21(1):8-14.
72.龚道溢,朱锦红,王绍武.长江流域夏季降水与前期北极涛动的显著相关[J].科学通报,2002,47(7):546-549
73.龚道溢,王绍武.近百年北极涛动对中国冬季气候的影响[J].地理学报,2003,58(4):559-568.
74.龚志强,王晓娟,崔冬林,等.区域性极端低温事件的识别及其变化特征[J].应用气象学报[J]，2012,23(2):195-204.
75.顾雷，魏科，黄荣辉.2008年1月我国严重低温雨雪冰冻灾害与东亚季风系统异常的关系[J].气候与环境研究,2008,13(4):405-418.
76.郭其蕴.东亚冬季风的变化与中国气温异常的关系[J].应用气象学报,1994,5(2):218-224
77. HarMan H H. Modem FactorAnalysis [M]. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.1976, p487
78.贺圣平,王会军.东亚冬季风综合指数及其表达的东亚冬季风年际变化特征[J].大气科学,2012,36(3):523-538.
79.贺圣平.20世纪80年代中期以来动摇冬季风年际变率的减弱及可能成因[J].科学通报,2013,58(6):609-616.
80. He Shengping, Wang Huijun, Liu Jiping. Changes in the Relationship between ENSO and Asia–PacificMidlatitude WinterAtmospheric Circulation[J]. J. Climate,2013,26(10):3377–3393.
81.何溪澄，丁一汇，何金海.东亚冬季风对ENSO事件的响应特征[J].大气科学.2008,32(2):335-344
82. Held I M, Lyons S W and Nigam S. Transients and the extratropical response to El Nino[J]. Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,1989,46(1):163-174
83. Honda M, Yamazaki K, Nakamura H, et al. Dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of atmospheric responseto anomalous sea-ice extent in the Sea of Okhotsk[J]. J Clim,1999,12(12):3347-3358.
84. Honda M, Inous J, Yamane S. Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters[J].Geophys Res Lett,2009,36(8): L08707.
85. Horel J D. A rotated principal component analysis of the interannual variability of the Northern Hemisphere500mb height field [J]. Monthly Weather Review,1981,109(10):2080-2092.
86. Hoerling Martin P, Arun Kumar, Min Zhong. El Ni o, La Ni a, and the Nonlinearity of Their Teleconnections[J]. J.Climate,1997,10:1769-1786.
87.侯威.极端事件检测、评价方法及中国近40年极端温度和降水事件时空变化研究.兰州大学博士论文,
2009.
88. Huang R H and Gambo K. On other wave guide in stationary planetary wave propagations in the winter NorthernHemisphere[J]. Science in China,1983,27(6):940-950
89. Huang R H, Chen J L, Huang G. Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impactson climate disasters in China[J].AdvAtmos Sci,2007,24:993-1023.
90. Huang Ronghui, Chen J L, Wang L, et al. Characteristic, Processes, and Causes of the Spatio-temporal Variabilitiesof the East Asian Monsoon System[J]. Adv Atmos Sci,2012,29(5):910-942.
91.黄菲，高聪晖.东亚冬季气温的年际变化特征及其与海温和海冰异常的关系[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)，2012,42(9):7-14.
92.黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法.北京：气象出版社,2004.
93.黄小梅,管兆勇,戴竹君,等.冬季东亚大槽强度年际变化及其与中国气候联系的再分析[J].气象学报,2013,71(3):416-428.
94.黄琰，封国林，董文杰.近50年中国气温、降水极值分区的时空变化特征[J].气象学报，2011,69(1):125-136.
95.胡宜昌,董文杰，何勇.21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2007,22(10):1066-1075.
96. Hu Z Z, Bengtsson L, Arpe K. Impact of global warming on the Asian winter monsoon in a coupled GCM[J].Journal of geophysical research,2000,105(D4):4607-4624.
97. James I N. Some aspects of the global circulation of the atmosphere in January and July1980, Large-scaledynamical processes in the atmosphere[M]. London,Academic Press,1983:5-25.
98. Jeffrey C Rogers. The20th century cooling trend over the southeastern United States[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013,40(1-2):341-352.
99. Ji Liren and Sun Shuqing. Observational and model study on interseasonal connection of atmospheric circulation.General Circulation of theAtmosphere[M], Beijing: China Meteorological Press,1995, p365-376.
100. Ji Liren, Sun Shuqing, Arpe K, et al. Model study on the interannual variability of Asian winter monsoon and itsinfluence[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1997,14(1):1-22.
101.姜大膀,田芝平.21世纪东亚季风变化: CMIP3和CMIP5模式预估结果[J].科学通报,2013,58:707-716.
102.金祖辉,孙淑清.东亚大陆冬季风的低频振荡特征[J].大气科学,1996,20(1):101-111.
103. Jhun Jong-Ghap and Eun-Jeong Lee. A New East Asian Winter Monsoon Index and Associated Characteristics ofthe Winter Monsoon[J]. J. Climate,2004,17(4):711–726.
104. Jones P D, Briffa K R, Barnett T P, et al. High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium:interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures[J]. TheHolocene,1998,8(4):455-471.
105.琚建华,吕俊梅,任菊章.北极涛动年代际变化对华北地区干旱化的影响[J].高原气象,2006,25(1):74-81
106. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR40-year reanalyses project [J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1996,77(33):437-471.
107.康丽华,陈文,魏科.我国冬季气温年代际变化及其与大气环流异常变化的关系[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(3):330-339.
108.康丽华，陈文，王林，等.我国冬季气温的年际变化及其与大气环流和海温异常的关系[J].气候与环境研究.2009,14(1):45-53.
109.康志明,金荣华,鲍媛媛.1951-2006年期间我国寒潮活动特征分析[J].高原气象，2010,29(2):420-428.
110. Kenyon J, Hegerl G C. Influence of modes of climate variability on global temperature extremes[J]. Journal ofClimate,2008,21(15):3872-3889.
111. Kenyon J, Hegerl G C. Influence of modes of climate variability on global precipitation extremes[J]. Journal ofClimate,2010,23(23):6248-6262.
112. Kendall M G, Gibbons J D. Rank Correlation Methods.5th London, UkedwardAmold,1981.320
113. Kerr RA.ANorthAtlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries[J]. Science,2000,288(5473):1984-1985.
114. Krishnamurti T N.热带气象学[M].柳崇健、朱伯承译.北京:气象出版社,1979, P284.
115. Kumar A, Perlwitz J, Eischeid J, et al. Contribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification[J]. Geophys Res Lett,2010,37(21): L21701.
116. Lan K M and Li M T. The monsoon of East Asian and its global associations A Survey[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1984,65(2):114-125.
117. Latif M and Barnett T P. Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America: Dynamics andpredictability[J]. J. Climate,1996,9(10):2407-2423.
118. Lau N C, Lau K M. The structure and energetics of midlatitude disturbances accompanying cold-air outbreaks overEast Asia[J]. Mon.Wea.Rev.,1984,112(7):1309-1327.
119. Li Congyin. Interaction between anomalous winter monsoon in East Asia and El Ni o events[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,1990,7(1),36-46.
120.李崇银.频繁的强东亚大槽活动与EI Nino的发生[J].中国科学,1988,31(6):667-674.
121.李崇银. El Nino事件与中国东部气温异常[J].热带气象学报,1989a,5(3):210-219.
122.李崇银.中国东部地区的暖冬与厄尔尼诺[J].科学通报,1989b,34(4):283-286.
123.李崇银.北半球大气运动的30-50天振荡，长期天气预报论文集.北京：气象出版社.1990,63-73.
124.李崇银.气候动力学引论[M].北京:气象出版社.2000.
125. Li Chongyin, Sun Shuqing, Mu Mingquan. Origin of the TBO-Interaction between anomalous East Asian wintermonsoon and ENSO cycle[J].AdvAtmos Sci,2001,18(4):554-566.
126.李崇银,王力群,顾薇.冬季蒙古高压与北太平洋异常的年际尺度关系[J].大气科学,2011,35(2):193-200.
127. Li F, Wang H J. Predictability of the East Asian winter monsoon interannual variability as indicated by theDEMETER CGCMS[J].AdvAtmos Sci,2012,29(3):441-454
128.李峰，矫梅燕，丁一汇，金荣花.北极区近30年环流的变化及对中国强冷事件的影响[J].大气科学.2006,25(2):209-219.
129.李琳,李崇银,宋洁.2009/2010年冬季北极涛动异常及其影响分析[J].中国科学:地球科学,2011,41(12):1771-1785.
130. Li Qi, Wang Yuqing. Changes in the Observed Trends in Extreme Temperatures over China around1990[J]. J.Climate,2012,25(15):5208–5222.
131.李庆祥，黄嘉佑.北京极端低温事件的长期变化特征[J].高原气象，2012,31(4):1145-1150.
132. Li Yueqing, Yang Song. A dynamical index for the East Asian winter monsoon[J]. J.Climate,2010,23(15):4255-4262.
133.李双林,王彦明,郜永祺.北大西洋年代际振荡(AMO)气候影响的研究评述[J].大气科学学报,2009,32(3):458-465.
134.梁必骐等.热带气象学[M].广州:中山大学出版社.1990.
135.梁红丽，肖子牛，宴红明.孟加拉湾冬季风及其与亚洲夏季气候的关系[J].热带气息学报，2004,20(5):537-547.
136. Limpasuvan V and Hartmann D L. Eddies and the annular modes of climate variability[J]. Geophysical ResearchLetters,1999,26(20):3133-3136.
137. Linkin Megan E., Sumant Nigam. The North Pacific Oscillation–West Pacific Teleconnection Pattern:Mature-Phase Structure and Winter Impacts[J]. J. Climate,2008,21(9):1979–1997.
138.林振敏,施能.北半球冬季大气环流遥相关型特征与我国区域气候[J].气象科技,2004,32(5):333-342
139.刘舸,纪立人,孙淑清,等.关于东亚冬季风指数的一个讨论-东亚中、低纬冬季风的差异[J].大气科学,2013,37(3):755-764.
140.刘怡,仇永炎.用轨迹法研究寒潮个例[J].气象学报,1992,50(1):60-71.
141. Liu H, E Tosi, S Tibalti. On the relationship between northern hemisphere weather regimes in winter time andspring precipitation over China[J]. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,1994,120:185-194.
142.刘莉红,郑祖光.近百余年我国气温变化的突变点分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(3):378-383.
143.刘实.确定东亚冬季风强度指数的一种方法探讨[J].地理科学,2007,27(z1):10-18.
144.刘实,布和朝鲁,陶诗言,等.东亚冬季风强度的统计预测方法研究[J].大气科学,2010,34(1):35-44.
145. Lorenz D J and Hartmann D L. Eddy-zonal flow feedback in the Southern Hemisphere[J]. Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,2000,58(21):3312-3327
146. Lorenz E N. Seasonal and irregular variations of the Northern Hemisphere sealevel pressure profile[J]. Journal ofMeteorology,1951,8(1):52-59.
147.卢爱刚,庞德谦,康世昌,等.全球变暖背景下中国气温时空差异响应[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(8):61-65.
148. Lu E, Chan J C L.Aunified monsoon index for South China[J]. Journal of Climate,1999,12(8):2375-2385.
149.卢孟明.1992/93年冬季寒潮与大气低频波动之关系.海峡两岸天气与气候学术研讨会论文汇编.台湾,1994,49-63.
150. Luo Yong, Zhao Zongci, Xu Ying, Gao Xuejie and Ding Yihui. Projections of Climate Change over China for the21st Century[J].ACTAMETEOROLOGICASINICA.2005,19(4):401-406
151.马晓青，丁一汇，徐海明，何金海.2004/2005年冬季强寒潮事件与大气低频波动关系的研究[J].大气科学.2008,32(2):380-393.
152. Mantua N J, Hare S R, Zhang Y, et al. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmonproduction[J]. Bull.Amer. Soc.,1997,78(6):1069-1079.
153.穆明权,李崇银.东亚冬季风年际变化的ENSO信息Ⅰ.观测资料分析[J].大气科学,1999,23(3):276-185.
154. Namias J. Recent seasonal interaction between North Pacific waters and the overlying atmospheric circulation[J]. JGeogphys Res,1959,64(2):631-646.
155. Namias J. Short-period climate fluctions[J]. Science,1965,147(2):696-706.
156.潘敖大,李忠贤,倪东鸿,等.欧洲冬季500hPa环流异常及与中国气候异常的关系[J].气象科学,2011,31(2):129-134.
157.潘晓华，翟盘茂.气温极端值的选取与分析[J].气象,2002,28(10):28-31.
158.庞子琴，郭品文.不同年代际背景下AO与冬季中国东北气温的关系[J].大气科学学报,2010,33(4):469-476.
159. Park T W, Ho C H, Yang S. Relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and cold surges over East Asia[J]. Journalof Climate,2011,24(1):68-83.
160.裴顺强，李崇银.东亚冬季风及其影响的进一步研究I.东亚冬季风变化及异常的特征[J].气候与环境研究,2007,12(2):124-136.
161. Qian W, Lin X. Regional trends in recent temperature indices in China[J]. Climate Research,2004,27(2):119-134.
162.钱维宏,张宗婕.南方持续低温冻雨事件预测的前期信号[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(5):1501-1512.
163.乔云亭，陈烈庭，张庆云.东亚季风系数的定义及其与中国气候的关系[J].大气科学，2002,26(1):69-82.
164.曲金华,江志红,谭桂容,等.冬季北大西洋海温年际、年代际变化与中国气温的关系[J].地理科学,2006,26(5):557-563
165.任福民，翟盘茂.1951-1990年中国极端气温变化分析[J].大气科学，1998,22(2):217-227.
166. Ren Fumin, Donglin Cui, Zhiqiang Gong, et al. An Objective Identification Technique for Regional ExtremeEvents[J]. J. Climate,2012,25(20):7015–7027.
167.任国玉,初子莹,周雅清,等.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究，2005,10(4):701-716.
168.任国玉,陈峪,邹旭恺,等.综合极端气候指数的定义和趋势分析[J].气候与环境研究,2010,15(4):354-364.
169. Ren Guoyu, Ding Yihui, Zhao Zongci, et al. Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change in China [J]. AdvancesinAtmospheric Sciences,2012,29(5):958-977.
170. Richard A. Kerr. ExpertsAgree Global Warming Is Melting the World Rapidly [J]. Science,2012,338:1138.
171. Richman M B. Rotation of principal components[J]. J. Climate,1986,6(3):293-333.
172. Rigor I G, Colony R L and Martin S. Variations in Surface Air Temperature Observations in the Arctic,1979-97[J].Journal of Climate,2000,13(5):896-914.
173. Rigor, Ignatius G., John M. Wallace, Roger L. Colony. Response of Sea Ice to the Arctic Oscillation[J]. J. Climate,2002,15(18):2648–2663.
174. Riviere G and Orlanski I. Characteristics of the Atlantic Storm-Track Eddy Activity and Its Relation with the NorthAtlantic Oscillation[J]. Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,2007,64(2):241-266
175. Rodionov S. N. A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2004,31(9): L09204.1-L09204.4.
176. Rodionov S. N. The problem of red noise in climate regime shift detection[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33: L12707, doi:10.1029/2006GL025904.
177. Roeckner E, Brokopf R, Esch M, et al. Sensitivity simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in theECHAM5atmosphere model. J Clim,2006,19:3771–3791.
178. Rothrock D A, Yu Y and Maykut G A. Thinning of the Arctic Sea-Ice Cover[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,1999,26(23):3469-3472
179. Screen J A and Simmonds I.2010. The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperatureamplification[J]. Nature,464:1334-1337.
180. Shabbar A, Huang J and Higuchi K. The relationship between the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation andblocking episodes in the NorthAtlantic[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2001,21(3):355-369.
181.邵鹏程，李栋梁.东亚冬季风指数的分类和比较[J],气象科学,2012,32(2):226-235.
182.施能.近40年东亚冬季风环流强度的多时间尺度变化特征及其与气候的关系[J].应用气象学报,1996,7(2):175-182.
183.施晓辉,徐祥德,谢立安.近40年来东亚冬季风的年代际时空变化趋势[J].大气科学.2007,31(4):747-756.
184. Shukla J and Wallace J M. Numerical Simulation of the Atmospheric Response to Equatorial Pacific Sea SurfaceTemperatureAnomalies[J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1983,40(7):1613-1630.
185. Sillmann J, Croci‐Maspoli M. Present and future atmospheric blocking and its impact on European mean andextreme climate[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36:L10702.
186. Smith T M, Reynolds R W. Improved extended reconstruction of SST(1854-1997)[J]. J Climate,2004,17(12):2466-2477.
187.宋连春,俞亚勋,孙旭映,等.北极涛动与我国北方强沙尘暴的关系[J].高原气象,2004,23(6):835-839.
188.宋燕,季劲钧.气候变暖的显著性检验以及温度场和降水场的时空分布特征[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(2):157-165.
189.所玲玲,黄嘉佑,谭本馗.北极涛动对我国冬季同期极端气温的影响研究[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(2):163-168.
190.索渺清,丁一汇.冬半年副热带南支西风槽结构和演变特征研究[J].大气科学,2009,33(3):425-442.
191.孙柏民,孙淑清.东亚冬季风异常及其影响的统计研究//何金海:亚洲季风研究的新进展.北京：气象出版社,1996,108-113.
192.孙柏民,李崇银.冬季东亚大槽的扰动与热带对流活动的关系[J].科学通报,1997,42(5):500-504.
193. Sun Bomin and Sun Shuqing.1994. The analysis on the features of the atmospheric circulation in preceding winterfor the summer drought and flooding in the Yangtze and Huaihe River valley[J]. Advances in AtmosphericSciences,1994,11(1):79-90.
194.孙丞虎,任福民,周兵,等.2011/2012年冬季我国异常低温特征及其可能成因分析[J].气象,2012,38(7):884-889.
195. Sun J Q, Wang H J, Yuan W, et al. Spatial-temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possiblechange[J]. J Geophys Res,2010,115: D16110.
196.孙淑清,孙柏民.东亚冬季风环流异常与中国江淮流域夏季旱涝天气的关系[J].气象学报,1995,53(4):438-450
197.唐国利，丁一汇.由最高最低气温求算的平均气温对我国年平均气温序列影响[J].应用气象学报.2007,18(2):187-192
198.唐国利，丁一汇，王绍武，等.中国近百年温度曲线的对比分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(2):71-78.
199.唐国利,罗勇,黄健斌,等.气候变暖在继续[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(4):235-242.
200.唐红玉，翟盘茂.1951-2002年中国东、西部地区地面气温变化对比[J].地球物理学报，2005,4（83）：526-534.
201.唐红玉，翟盘茂，王振宇.1951-2002年中国平均最高、最低气温及日较差变化[J].气候与环境研究.2005,10(4):728-735.
202.陶诗言.冬季由印缅来的低槽对于华南天气的影响[J].气象学报,1952,23(3):172-192.
203.陶诗言.东亚冬季冷空气活动的研究[J].中央气象局.短期预报手册,1957.
204. Taylor K E, Stouffer R J, Meehl G A. An overview of CMIP5and the experiment design[J]. BAMS,2012:485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
205. Thompson D W J and Wallace J M. The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height andtemperature fields[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,1998,25(9):1297-1300.
206. Thompson D W J and Wallace J M. Regional climate impacts of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode[J].Science,2001,293(5527):85-89.
207. Thompson D W J, Lee S and Baldwin M P. Atmospheric Processes Governing the Northern Hemisphere AnnularMode/North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Geophysical monograph,2003,134:81-112
208. Thorncroft C D, Hoskins B J and McIntyre M E. Two paradigms of baroclinic wave life-cycle behavior[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1993,119(509):17-55.
209. Tomita T, Yasunari T. Role of the northeast winter monsoon on the biennial oscillation of the ENSO/monsoonsystem[J]. J.Meteor.Soc. Japan,1996,74(4):399-413.
210. Trenberth K E, Hurrell J W. Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific[J]. Clim. Dynam.,1994,9(6):303-309.
211. Trenberth K E, Shea D J. Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in2005[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33(12).
212. Walker G T and Bliss E W. World Weather V[M], Memoirs of the R. M. S.1932,4:53-83
213. Wallace J M and Gutzler D S. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemispherewinter[J]. Monthly Weather Review,1981,109(4):784-812
214. Wallace J M. North Atlantic Oscillation/Annular Mode: Two Paradigms-One Phenomenon[J]. Quarterly Journalof the Royal Meteorological Society,2000a,126(564):791-805
215. Wallace J M. On theArctic andAntarctic Oscillation[R]. NCAR Summer Colloquium Lecture Notes,2000b.
216. Wallace J M and Thompson D W J. The Pacific Center of Action of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode: RealorArtifact[J]. Journal of Climate,2002,15(14):1987-1991.
217. Wang H J, Ye E T, Yang S. An exceptionally heavy snowfall in Northeast China: Large-scale circulation anomaliesand hindcast of the NCAR WRF model[J]. Meteorol Atmos Phys,2011,113(1-2):11-25.
218. Wang H J, Sun J Q. Variability of northeast China river break-up data[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2009,26(4):701-706.
219.王会军和姜大膀.2004.一个新的东亚冬季风强度指数及其强弱变化之大气环流场差异[J].第四纪研究,24(1):19-27.
220.王会军，贺圣平.我国东北冬季降雪的年代季增多及其与冬季风减弱的关系[J].科学通报,2013,58(8):629-633.
221.贺圣平,王会军.东亚冬季风综合指数及其表达的东亚冬季风年际变化特征[J].大气科学,2012,36(3):523-538.
222.王会军，范可.东亚冬季风近几十年来的主要变化特征[J].大气科学,2013,37(2):313-318.
223. Wang Lin, Chen Wen, Huang Ronghui. Interdecadal modulation of PDO on the impact of ENSO on the East Asianwinter monsoon[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35, L20702, doi:10.1029/2008GL035287.
224. Wang Lin, Wen Chen, Wen Zhou, Ronghui Huang. Interannual Variations of East Asian Trough Axis at500hPaand itsAssociation with the EastAsian Winter Monsoon Pathway[J]. J. Climate,2009,22(3):600–614.
225. Wang Lin, Huang Ronghui, Gu L, et al.2009. Interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and theirassociation with quasi-stationary planetary wave activity[J]. Journal of Climate,2009,22(18):4860-4872.
226. Wang Lin, Chen Wen. How well do Exisiting Indices Measure the strength of the East Asian Monsoon[J]. AdvAtmos Sci,2010,27(4):855-870.
227. Wang Lin, Chen Wen. Downward Arctic Oscillation signal associated with moderate weak stratospheric polarvortex and the cold2009December[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2010,37, L09707.
228. Wang L, Chen W. An intensity index for the East Asian winter monsoon[J]. Journal of Climate,2013(2013).
229. Wang L, Chen W. The East Asian winter monsoon: Re-amplification in the mid-2000s[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2014,59(4):430-436.
230. Wang Y, Li S, Luo D. Seasonal response of Asian monsoonal climate to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres (1984–2012),2009,114(D2).
231.王林，陈文，等.北太平洋涛动的季节演变及其与我国冬春气候异常的联系[J].大气科学,2011,35(3):393-402.
232.王启祎,丁一汇.东亚冬季风的演变特征[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(2):186-196.
233.王启祎,丁一汇，江滢.亚洲季风活动及其与中国大陆江水关系[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(1):84-89.
234.王绍武.近百年气候变化与变率的诊断研究[J].气象学报,1994,52(3):261-273.
235.王绍武,叶瑾琳.近百年全球气候变暖的分析[J].大气科学,1995,19(5):545-553.
236.王绍武,叶瑾琳,龚道溢,等.近百年中国年气温序列的建立[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(4):92-101.
237.王绍武.现代气候学研究进展[M].气象出版社,2001.
238.王绍武，罗勇，唐国利，等.近10年全球变暖停滞了吗[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(2):95-99.
239.王晓娟,龚志强,任福民,等.1960-2009年中国冬季区域性极端低温事件的时空特征[J].气候变化研究进展.2012,8(1):8-15.
240.王亚伟，翟盘茂，田华.近四十年南方高温变化特征与2003年的高温事件[J].气象，2006，32(10):27-33.
241.王遵娅，丁一汇.近50年来中国气候变化特征的再分析[J].气象学报.2004,62(2):228-236
242.王遵娅，丁一汇.近53年中国寒潮的变化特征及其可能原因[J].大气科学.2006,30(6):1068-1076.
243.韦道明，李崇银.东亚冬季风的区域差异和突变特征[J].高原气象，2009,28(5):1149-1157.
244.魏凤英，曹鸿兴.20世纪我国气候增暖进程的统计事实[J].应用气象学报，2003,14(1):79-86.
245. Wei Junhong, Lin Zhaohui. The Leading Mode of Wintertime Cold Wave Frequency in Northern China during theLast42Years and Its Association with Arctic Oscillation[J]. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCELETTERS,2009,2(3):130－134.
246. Wei K, Chen W, Zhou W. Changes in the EastAsian cold season since2000[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2011,28(1):69-79.
247.魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术.2007,北京:气象出版社.
248. Wen Min, Yang Song, Kumar A, et al. An analysis of the large-scale climate anomalies associated with thesnowstorms affecting China in January2008[J]. Mon Wea Rev,2009,137(3):1111-1131.
249.武炳义,黄荣辉,高登义.冬季北极喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积变化对东亚冬季风的影响[J].大气科学,1999,23(3):267-275.
250.武炳义,黄荣辉.冬季北大西洋涛动极端异常变化与东亚冬季风[J].大气科学,1999,23(6):641-651.
251.武炳义,黄荣辉,高登义.北极海冰的厚度和面积变化对大气环流影响的数值模拟研究[J].气象学报,2001,59(4):414-428.
252.武炳义，卞林根，张人禾.冬季北极涛动和北极海冰变化对东亚气候变化的影响[J].极地研究,2004,16(3):211-220
253.武炳义,苏志京,张人禾.秋冬季节北极海冰对冬季西伯利亚高压的影响[J].科学通报,2011,56(27):2335-2343.
254. Wu B Y, Wang J. Winter Arctic oscillation, Siberian high and East Asian winter monsoon[J]. Geophysical ResearchLetters,2002,29(19):1897.
255. Wu Bingyi and Wang Jia. Possible impacts of winter Arctic Oscillation on Siberian high, the East Asian wintermonsoon and sea–ice extent[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2002,19(2):297-320.
256. Wu B Y, Wang J, Walsh J. Possible feedback of winter sea ice in the Greenland and Barents Seas on the localatmosphere[J]. Mon. Wea. Rev.,2004,132(7):1868-1876.
257. Wu B Y, Su J Z, Zhang R H. Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High[J]. Chinese Sci Bull,2011,56(30):3220-3228.
258. Wu M C, Leung Y K, Chang W L. Relationship between winter temperature in Hong Kong and East Asian WinterMonsoon. Symposium on Asian Monsoon Winter MONEX: A Quarter Century and Beyond. Malaysia.2006,75-78.
259.吴尚森,梁建茵.华南冬季异常冷月预测概念模型Ⅱ-大气环流、极冰、积雪等物理因子特征[J].热带气象学报,2000,66(5):781-788.
260.徐国昌.青藏高原冷暖与东亚大气环流的统计分析[J].气象,1987,13（1）：20-24.
261.徐建军,朱乾根,周铁汉.近百年东亚冬季风的突变性和周期性[J].应用气象学报,1999,10(1):1-8.
262.徐淑英,季劲钧.我国冬季风来临的天气气候学研究[J].地理期刊,1965,9:85-101.
263.徐影，丁一汇，赵宗慈.近30年人类活动对东亚地区气候变化影响的检测与评估[J].气象学报.2002,13(5):513-525.
264.晏红明，段玮，肖子牛.东亚冬季风与中国夏季气候变化[J].热带气象学报,2003,19(4):367-376.
265.晏红明,周文,杨辉,等.东亚冬季风指数的定义及其年际年代际异常[J].大气科学学报,2009,32(3):367-376.
266.杨桂英,章淹.冬季东亚大槽异常与El Nino的关系[J].应用气象学报,1994,5(1):114-118.
267.杨松，朱乾根.冷涌结构及冷涌期中低纬度环流相互作用的数值模拟[J].热带气象.1989,5(3):328-333.
268. Yang Song, K M Lau, K M Kim. Variations of the East Asian Jet Stream and Asian–Pacific–American WinterClimateAnomalies[J]. J. Climate,2002,15(3):306–325.
269.杨修群，黄士松.欧亚雪盖的气候效应及其在冬季风形成中的作用[J].南京大学学报,1992,28(2):326-335.
270.杨修群,朱益民,谢倩,等.太平洋年代际振荡的研究进展[J].大气科学,1994,28(6):979-992.
271.杨绚，李栋梁.我国冬季气温异常对东亚季风和高原加热场的响应[J].高原气象,2009,28(4):731-737.
272.姚惠茹,李栋梁.亚洲急流与冬季风的关系及其对中国冬季气候的影响[J]，气象学报，2013,71(3),429-439.
273.么枕生.聚类统计检验用于气候分类[M].气候学研究（4）-气候理论与应用,北京:气象出版社,1997,85-94.
274.曾红玲,高新全,戴新刚.近20年全球冬、夏季海平面气压场和500hPa高度场年代际变化特征分析[J].高原气象,2002,21(1):66-73.
275.曾剑，张强，王同美.东亚冬季风与中国南方冬季降水的关系分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(4):975-981.
276.曾琮，胡斯团，梁建茵，等.东亚冬季风异常与广东前汛期旱涝关系的初步分析[J].应用气象学报[J]，2005,16(5):645-554.
277.翟盘茂，任福民.中国近四十年最高最低温度变化[J].气象学报,1997,55(4):418-429.
278.翟盘茂，潘晓华.中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化[J].地理学报.2003，58(S1):1-10.
279. Zhai Panmao, Ren Fumin. On changes of China's maximum and minimum temperatures in the recent40years.Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1997,55(4):418-429.
280. Zhai Panmao, Sun A, Ren Fumin, et al. Changes of climate extremes in China[M]//Weather and Climate Extremes.Springer Netherlands,1999,203-218.
281. Zhai Panmao, Pan Xiaohua. Trends in temperature extremes during1951–1999in China[J]. Geophysical ResearchLetters,2003,30(17):1913
282. Zhai Panmao, Zhang Xuebin, Wan Hui, Pan Xiaohua. Trends in Total Precipitation and Frequency of DailyPrecipitation Extremes over China[J]. J. Climate,2005,18(7),1096-1108.
283.张培忠,陈光明.影响中国寒潮冷高压的统计研究[J].气象学报,1999,57(4):493-501.
284.张鹏飞,鲁亚斌,张杰,普贵明.一次低纬高原地区大到暴雪天气过程的诊断分析[J].高原气象.2006,25(4):696-703.
285.张庆云,陶诗言,彭京备.我国灾害性天气气候事件成因机理的研究进展[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):815-825.
286. Zhang R., A. Sumi, and M. Kimoto. Impact of El Ni o on the east Asian monsoon: Adiagnostic study of the86/87and91/92events[J]. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan.,1996,74(1),49-62.
287. Zhang Y, Sperber K, Boyle J. Climatology and interannual variation of the East Asian winter monsoon: Resultsfrom the1979-95NCEP/NCAR reanalysis[J]. Mon Wea Rev,1997,125(10):2605-2616.
288. Zhang Yingxian, Ding Yihui, Li Qiaoping. A Climatology of Extratropical Cyclones over East Asia During1958-2001[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2012,26(3):261-277.
289. Zhang Zongjie, Qian Weihong. Identifying regional prolonged low temperature events in China[J]. Advances inAtmospheric Sciences,2011,28:338-351.
290.张宗婕,钱维宏.中国冬半年区域持续性低温事件的前期信号[J].大气科学,2012,36(6):1269-1279.
291.赵汉光，张先恭.东亚季风与我国夏季玉带的关系[J].气象，1996,22(4):8-12.
292.赵宗慈,罗勇,黄建斌.对地球系统模式评估方法的回顾[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):001-008.
293.赵宗慈,王绍武,徐影,等.近百年我国地表气温趋势变化的可能原因[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):808-817.
294. Zhao Zongci, Ding Yihui, Luo Yong and Wang Shaowu. Recent Studies on Attributions of Climate Change inChina[J].ACTAMETEOROLOGICASINICA.2005,19(4):389-400.
295.赵宗慈,王绍武,罗勇,等.近百年气候变暖的不确定性分析[J].科技导报,2009(23):41-48.
296. Zhou W, Li C Y, Wang X. Possible connection between Pacific Oceanic interdecadal pathway and East Asianwinter monsoon[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett,2007,34(1), L01701.
297.周雅清,任国玉.中国大陆1956~2008年极端气温事件变化特征分析[J].气候与环境研究,2010(4):405-417.
298. Zhu C, Lee W S, Kang H, et al. A proper monsoon index for seasonal and interannual variations of the East Asianmonsoon[J]. Geophysical research letters,2005,32(2).
299.朱抱真,丁一汇,罗会邦.关于东亚大气环流和季风的研究[J].气象学报,1990,48(1):4-16.
300.祝从文，何金海，吴国雄.东亚季风指数及其与大尺度热力环流年际变化关系[J].气象学报,2008,66(5):781-788.
301.朱乾根,杨松.青藏高原大地形对冷涌作用的数值模拟研究[J].气象学报,1990,48(2):162-171.
302.朱乾根.我国的东亚冬季风研究.气象[J]，1990,16(1):3-10.
303.朱伟军,孙照渤. ENSO事件对冬季北半球太平洋风暴轴维持的影响[J].南京气象学院学报,1998,21(2):189-195.
304.朱伟军,孙照渤.冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年际变化及其与500hPa高度以及热带和北太平洋海温的联系[J].气象学报,2000,58(3):309-320
305.朱艳峰，谭桂容，王永光.中国冬季气温变化的空间模态及其与大尺度环流异常的联系[J]．气候变化研究进展,2007,3(5):266-270．
306.朱艳峰.一个适用于描述中国大陆冬季气温变化的东亚冬季风指数[J].气象学报,2008,66(5):781-788.
307.朱益民，杨修群.太平洋年代际振荡与中国气候变率的联系[J].气象学报,2003,61(6):641-654.
2. Alexander L V, Zhang X, Peterson T C, et al. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperatureand precipitation[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres (1984–2012),2006,111(D5).
3. Ambaum M H P, Hoskins B J and Stephenson D B. Arctic Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Journal ofClimate,2001,14(16):3495-3507.
4.白爱娟,翟盘茂.中国近百年气候变化的自然原因讨论[J].气象科学,2007,27(5):584-590.
5. Baldwin M P, Cheng X and Dunkerton T J. Observed correlations between winter-mean tropospheric andstratospheric circulation anomalies[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,1994,21(12):1141-1144
6. Baldwin M P and Dunkerton T J. Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1999,104(24):30,937-30,946
7. Baldwin M P and Dunkerton T J. Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes[J]. Science,2001,294(5542):581-584.
8. Baldwin M P, Thompson D W J, Shuckburgh E F, et al. Weather from the Stratosphere[J]. Science,2003,301(5631):317-318
9. Baldwin M P, Stephenson D B, Thompson D W J, et al. Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weatherforecasts[J]. Science,2003,301(5633):636-640
10. Bates G T. Influence of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on the winter climate of East China[J]. Advances inAtmospheric Sciences,2007,24(1):126-135.
11. Benedict J J, Lee S and Feldstein S B. Synoptic view of the North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,2004,61(2):121-144.
12. Blackmon M L. A climatological spectral study of the500mb geopotential height of the Northern Hemisphere[J].Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,1976,33(8):1607-1623
13. Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A et al. Characteristics of daily and extreme temperature over Canada[J]. J.Climate,2001,5(14):1959-1976.
14.布和朝鲁，纪立人.东亚冬季风活动异常与热带太平洋海温异常[J].科学通报，1999,44(3):252-259.
15. Carillo A, Ruti P M and Navarra A. Storm tracks and zonal mean flow variability: Acomparison between observedand simulated data[J]. Climate Dynamics,2000,16(2-3):219-228.
16. Chan J C L, Li Chongyin. The East Asia winter monsoon [M]//Chang CP. East Asian Monsoon. Singapore: WorldScientific Publishing Co. Pet. Ltd,2004,54-106
17. Chang C P, Lau K M. Northeasterly cold surges and near-equatorial disturbances over the winter MONEX areaduring December1974, Part II: Planetary-scale aspect[J]. Mon.Wea.Rev.,1980,108(3):298-312.
18. Chang C P and Lun K M. Short term planetary scale interaction over the tropics and the mid-latitudes duringnorthern winer. PartⅠ: Cnotrast between active and inactive periods[J]. Mon Wea Rev,1982,110(8):933-946.
19. Charney J G and Drazin P G. Propagation of planetaryscale disturbances from the lower into the upperatmosphere[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,1961,66(83):83-109.
20.陈海山,孙照渤,闵锦忠.欧亚大陆冬季积雪异常与东亚冬季风及中国冬季气温的关系[J].南京气象学院学报.1999,22(4):609-615.
21.陈海山,孙照渤.欧亚积雪异常分布对冬季大气环流的影响I.观测研究[J].大气科学.2003,27(3):304-316.
22. Chen H S, Zhang Y. Sensitivity experiments of impacts of large-scale urbanization in East China on East Asianwinter monsoon[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58(7):809-815.
23.陈隆勋,周秀骥,李维亮.中国近80年来气候变化特征及其形成机制[J].气象学报,2004,62(5):634-646.
24.陈佩燕,倪允琪.近50年来全球海温异常对我国东部地区冬季温度异常影响的诊断研究[J].热带气象学报,2001,17(4):371-380.
25.陈文. El Nino和La Nina事件对东亚冬、夏季风循环的影响[J].大气科学,2002,26(5):595-610.
26. Chen W, H F Graf, and R Huang. The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon and its relation to thesummer monsoon[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2000,17(1):48-60.
27. Chen W, Graf H F and Takahashi M. Observed interannual oscillation of planetary wave forcing in the NorthernHemisphere winter[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2002,29(22):2073, doi:10.1029/2002GL016062
28. Chen W, Takahashi M and Graf H F. Interannual variations of stationary planetary wave activity in the northernwinter troposphere and stratosphere and their relations to NAM and SST[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,2003,108(24):4797, doi:10.1029/2003JD003834
29.陈文,魏科,王林等.东亚冬季风的气候变异和机理以及平流层过程的影响[J].大气科学.2013,37(2):425-438.
30.陈隽,孙淑清.东亚冬季风异常与全球大气环流变化: Ⅰ.强弱冬季风影响的对比研究[J].大气科学,1999,23(1):101-111.
31.陈磊.近50年我国极端低温事件的特征及其成因的初步研究[D].兰州大学,2011.
32. Cheng Xinhua, Gregor Nitsche, John M Wallace. Robustness of Low-Frequency Circulation Patterns Derivedfrom EOF and Rotated EOFAnalyses[J]. J. Climate,1995,8(6):1709-1713.
33. Cheung Ho Nam, Zhou Wen, Hing Yim Mok, Wu Man Chi. Relationship between Ural–Siberian Blocking and theEast Asian Winter Monsoon in Relation to the Arctic Oscillation and the El Ni o–Southern Oscillation[J]. J.Climate,2012,25():4242–4257.
34.崔晓鹏,孙照渤.东亚冬季风强度指数及其变化的分析[J].南京气象学院学报,1999,22(3):321-325.
35. Cutlip K. Northern influence[J]. Weatherwise,2000,53(2):10-11
36. Deser C. On the teleconnectivity of the "Arctic Oscillation"[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2000,27(6):779-782
37. Deser, Clara, John E. Walsh, Michael S. Timlin. Arctic Sea Ice Variability in the Context of Recent AtmosphericCirculation Trends[J]. J. Climate,2000,13(3):617–633.
38. DeWeaver E and Nigam S. Do Stationary Waves Drive the Zonal-Mean Jet Anomalies of the Northern Winter[J].Journal of Climate,2000,13(13):2160-2176
39. Dickinson R E. Planetary Rossby waves propagating vertically through weak westerly wind wave guides[J].Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,1968,25(6):984-1002
40. Ding R, K Ha, and J Li. Interdecadal shift in the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and thetropical Indian Ocean[J]. Climate Dyn.,2010,34(7-8):1059-1071.
41.丁一汇.东亚冬季风的统计研究[J].热带气象,1990,6(2):119-128
42.丁一汇.东亚寒潮冷空气的传播和行星尺度作用[J].应用气象学报.1991,2(2):718-724
43.丁一汇，温市耕，李运锦.冬季西伯利亚高压动力结构的研究[J].气象学报.1991,49(4):430-439
44.丁一汇，戴晓苏.中国近百年来的温度变化[J].气象学报,1994,13(5):513-525.
45.丁一汇.高等天气学[M].北京：气象出版社,2004,257pp.
46.丁一汇，任国玉，石广玉.气候变化国家评估报告：中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展.2006,2(1)3-8
47.丁一汇，任国玉，赵宗慈，等.中国气候变化的检测及预估[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2007,1(1):1-10.
48.丁一汇.全球气候变化中的物理问题[J].物理,2009,38(2):71-83.
49. Ding Yihui and Krishnamurti T N. Heat budget of the Siberian High and the winter monsoon[J]. Mon Wea Rev,1987,115(10):2428-2499.
50. Ding Yihui. Build-up, air mass transformation and propagation of Siberian high and its relations to cold surge inEast Asia [J]. Meteorology andAtmospheric Physics,1990,44(1-4), pp281-292.
51. Ding Yihui, Ren Guoyu, Zhao Zongci, et al. Detection, Causes and Projection of Climate Change over China: AnOverview of Recent Progress[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.2007,24(6):954-971
52.丁裕国,梁建茵,刘吉峰. EOF/PPCA诊断气象变量场问题的新探讨[J].大气科学,2005,29(2):307-313.
53. Dunkerton T J. Midwinter Deceleration of the Subtropical Mesospheric Jet and Interannual Variability of theHigh-Latitude Flow in UKMOAnalyses[J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1968,57(23):3838-3855
54. Easterling D R, Horton B, Jones P D, et al. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe[J]. Science,1997,277(5324):364-367.
55. Easterling D R and Wehner M F. Is the climate warming or cooling?[J].2009, Geophysical Research Letters,36(8).
56.方修琦，张学珍，戴玉娟，等.1951-2005年中国大陆冬季温度变化过程的区域差异[J].地理科学，2010,30(4):571-576.
57. Feldstein S B. The timescale, power spectra, and climate noise properties of teleconnection patterns[J]. Journal ofClimate,2000,13(24):4430-4440.
58. Feldstein S B. The recent trend and variance increase of the annular mode[J]. Journal of climate,2002,15(1):88-94.
59. Feldstein S B. The dynamics of NAO teleconnection pattern growth and decay[J]. Quarterly Journal of the RoyalMeteorological Society,2003,129(589):901-924
60. Feldstein S B and Franzke C. Are the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Northern Annular Mode Distinguishable[J].Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,2006,63(11):2915-2930.
61. Franzke C, Lee S and Feldstein S B. Is the North Atlantic Oscillation a Breaking Wave[J]. Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,2004,61(2):145-160
62.高辉.东亚冬季风指数及其对东亚大气环流异常的表现[J].气象学报,2007,65(2):272-279
63.高辉,刘芸芸,王勇.冬季风异常对中国春季北方沙尘日数的影响[J].高原山地气象研究,2012,32(1):18-21
64.高守亭，陶诗言，丁一汇.寒潮期间高空波动与东亚急流的相互作用[J].大气科学.1992,16(6):209-219
65. Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci, Ding Yihui, Huang Ronghui and Filippo Giorhi. Climate Change Due to GreenhouseEffects in China as Simulated by a Regional Climate Model-Part Ⅰ：Evaluation of the Model Simulations[J].ACTAMETEOROLOGICASINICA.2003,17(4):406-416
66. Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci, Ding Yihui, Huang Ronghui and Filippo Giorhi. Climate Change Due to GreenhouseEffects in China as Simulated by a Regional Climate Model-Part Ⅱ: Climate Change[J]. ACTAMETEOROLOGICASINICA.2003,17(4):417-427
67. Gates W L. A statistical analysis of Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure patterns accompanying high and lowpolar pressure deficit[D]. Bachelor's thesis, M.I.T., Cambridge, MA.1950
68. Gong D Y, Wang S W, Zhu J H. East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic oscillation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2001,28(10):2073-2076.
69.龚道溢，王绍武.西伯利亚高压的长期变化及全球变暖可能影响的研究[J].地理学报,1999,54(2):125-133.
70.龚道溢,王绍武.近百年我国的异常暖冬与冷冬[J].灾害学,1999,14(2):63-68.
71.龚道溢，朱锦红，王绍武.西伯利亚高压对亚洲大陆的气候影响分析[J].高原气象，2002,21(1):8-14.
72.龚道溢,朱锦红,王绍武.长江流域夏季降水与前期北极涛动的显著相关[J].科学通报,2002,47(7):546-549
73.龚道溢,王绍武.近百年北极涛动对中国冬季气候的影响[J].地理学报,2003,58(4):559-568.
74.龚志强,王晓娟,崔冬林,等.区域性极端低温事件的识别及其变化特征[J].应用气象学报[J]，2012,23(2):195-204.
75.顾雷，魏科，黄荣辉.2008年1月我国严重低温雨雪冰冻灾害与东亚季风系统异常的关系[J].气候与环境研究,2008,13(4):405-418.
76.郭其蕴.东亚冬季风的变化与中国气温异常的关系[J].应用气象学报,1994,5(2):218-224
77. HarMan H H. Modem FactorAnalysis [M]. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.1976, p487
78.贺圣平,王会军.东亚冬季风综合指数及其表达的东亚冬季风年际变化特征[J].大气科学,2012,36(3):523-538.
79.贺圣平.20世纪80年代中期以来动摇冬季风年际变率的减弱及可能成因[J].科学通报,2013,58(6):609-616.
80. He Shengping, Wang Huijun, Liu Jiping. Changes in the Relationship between ENSO and Asia–PacificMidlatitude WinterAtmospheric Circulation[J]. J. Climate,2013,26(10):3377–3393.
81.何溪澄，丁一汇，何金海.东亚冬季风对ENSO事件的响应特征[J].大气科学.2008,32(2):335-344
82. Held I M, Lyons S W and Nigam S. Transients and the extratropical response to El Nino[J]. Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,1989,46(1):163-174
83. Honda M, Yamazaki K, Nakamura H, et al. Dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of atmospheric responseto anomalous sea-ice extent in the Sea of Okhotsk[J]. J Clim,1999,12(12):3347-3358.
84. Honda M, Inous J, Yamane S. Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters[J].Geophys Res Lett,2009,36(8): L08707.
85. Horel J D. A rotated principal component analysis of the interannual variability of the Northern Hemisphere500mb height field [J]. Monthly Weather Review,1981,109(10):2080-2092.
86. Hoerling Martin P, Arun Kumar, Min Zhong. El Ni o, La Ni a, and the Nonlinearity of Their Teleconnections[J]. J.Climate,1997,10:1769-1786.
87.侯威.极端事件检测、评价方法及中国近40年极端温度和降水事件时空变化研究.兰州大学博士论文,
2009.
88. Huang R H and Gambo K. On other wave guide in stationary planetary wave propagations in the winter NorthernHemisphere[J]. Science in China,1983,27(6):940-950
89. Huang R H, Chen J L, Huang G. Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impactson climate disasters in China[J].AdvAtmos Sci,2007,24:993-1023.
90. Huang Ronghui, Chen J L, Wang L, et al. Characteristic, Processes, and Causes of the Spatio-temporal Variabilitiesof the East Asian Monsoon System[J]. Adv Atmos Sci,2012,29(5):910-942.
91.黄菲，高聪晖.东亚冬季气温的年际变化特征及其与海温和海冰异常的关系[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)，2012,42(9):7-14.
92.黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法.北京：气象出版社,2004.
93.黄小梅,管兆勇,戴竹君,等.冬季东亚大槽强度年际变化及其与中国气候联系的再分析[J].气象学报,2013,71(3):416-428.
94.黄琰，封国林，董文杰.近50年中国气温、降水极值分区的时空变化特征[J].气象学报，2011,69(1):125-136.
95.胡宜昌,董文杰，何勇.21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2007,22(10):1066-1075.
96. Hu Z Z, Bengtsson L, Arpe K. Impact of global warming on the Asian winter monsoon in a coupled GCM[J].Journal of geophysical research,2000,105(D4):4607-4624.
97. James I N. Some aspects of the global circulation of the atmosphere in January and July1980, Large-scaledynamical processes in the atmosphere[M]. London,Academic Press,1983:5-25.
98. Jeffrey C Rogers. The20th century cooling trend over the southeastern United States[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013,40(1-2):341-352.
99. Ji Liren and Sun Shuqing. Observational and model study on interseasonal connection of atmospheric circulation.General Circulation of theAtmosphere[M], Beijing: China Meteorological Press,1995, p365-376.
100. Ji Liren, Sun Shuqing, Arpe K, et al. Model study on the interannual variability of Asian winter monsoon and itsinfluence[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1997,14(1):1-22.
101.姜大膀,田芝平.21世纪东亚季风变化: CMIP3和CMIP5模式预估结果[J].科学通报,2013,58:707-716.
102.金祖辉,孙淑清.东亚大陆冬季风的低频振荡特征[J].大气科学,1996,20(1):101-111.
103. Jhun Jong-Ghap and Eun-Jeong Lee. A New East Asian Winter Monsoon Index and Associated Characteristics ofthe Winter Monsoon[J]. J. Climate,2004,17(4):711–726.
104. Jones P D, Briffa K R, Barnett T P, et al. High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium:interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures[J]. TheHolocene,1998,8(4):455-471.
105.琚建华,吕俊梅,任菊章.北极涛动年代际变化对华北地区干旱化的影响[J].高原气象,2006,25(1):74-81
106. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR40-year reanalyses project [J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1996,77(33):437-471.
107.康丽华,陈文,魏科.我国冬季气温年代际变化及其与大气环流异常变化的关系[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(3):330-339.
108.康丽华，陈文，王林，等.我国冬季气温的年际变化及其与大气环流和海温异常的关系[J].气候与环境研究.2009,14(1):45-53.
109.康志明,金荣华,鲍媛媛.1951-2006年期间我国寒潮活动特征分析[J].高原气象，2010,29(2):420-428.
110. Kenyon J, Hegerl G C. Influence of modes of climate variability on global temperature extremes[J]. Journal ofClimate,2008,21(15):3872-3889.
111. Kenyon J, Hegerl G C. Influence of modes of climate variability on global precipitation extremes[J]. Journal ofClimate,2010,23(23):6248-6262.
112. Kendall M G, Gibbons J D. Rank Correlation Methods.5th London, UkedwardAmold,1981.320
113. Kerr RA.ANorthAtlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries[J]. Science,2000,288(5473):1984-1985.
114. Krishnamurti T N.热带气象学[M].柳崇健、朱伯承译.北京:气象出版社,1979, P284.
115. Kumar A, Perlwitz J, Eischeid J, et al. Contribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification[J]. Geophys Res Lett,2010,37(21): L21701.
116. Lan K M and Li M T. The monsoon of East Asian and its global associations A Survey[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1984,65(2):114-125.
117. Latif M and Barnett T P. Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America: Dynamics andpredictability[J]. J. Climate,1996,9(10):2407-2423.
118. Lau N C, Lau K M. The structure and energetics of midlatitude disturbances accompanying cold-air outbreaks overEast Asia[J]. Mon.Wea.Rev.,1984,112(7):1309-1327.
119. Li Congyin. Interaction between anomalous winter monsoon in East Asia and El Ni o events[J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,1990,7(1),36-46.
120.李崇银.频繁的强东亚大槽活动与EI Nino的发生[J].中国科学,1988,31(6):667-674.
121.李崇银. El Nino事件与中国东部气温异常[J].热带气象学报,1989a,5(3):210-219.
122.李崇银.中国东部地区的暖冬与厄尔尼诺[J].科学通报,1989b,34(4):283-286.
123.李崇银.北半球大气运动的30-50天振荡，长期天气预报论文集.北京：气象出版社.1990,63-73.
124.李崇银.气候动力学引论[M].北京:气象出版社.2000.
125. Li Chongyin, Sun Shuqing, Mu Mingquan. Origin of the TBO-Interaction between anomalous East Asian wintermonsoon and ENSO cycle[J].AdvAtmos Sci,2001,18(4):554-566.
126.李崇银,王力群,顾薇.冬季蒙古高压与北太平洋异常的年际尺度关系[J].大气科学,2011,35(2):193-200.
127. Li F, Wang H J. Predictability of the East Asian winter monsoon interannual variability as indicated by theDEMETER CGCMS[J].AdvAtmos Sci,2012,29(3):441-454
128.李峰，矫梅燕，丁一汇，金荣花.北极区近30年环流的变化及对中国强冷事件的影响[J].大气科学.2006,25(2):209-219.
129.李琳,李崇银,宋洁.2009/2010年冬季北极涛动异常及其影响分析[J].中国科学:地球科学,2011,41(12):1771-1785.
130. Li Qi, Wang Yuqing. Changes in the Observed Trends in Extreme Temperatures over China around1990[J]. J.Climate,2012,25(15):5208–5222.
131.李庆祥，黄嘉佑.北京极端低温事件的长期变化特征[J].高原气象，2012,31(4):1145-1150.
132. Li Yueqing, Yang Song. A dynamical index for the East Asian winter monsoon[J]. J.Climate,2010,23(15):4255-4262.
133.李双林,王彦明,郜永祺.北大西洋年代际振荡(AMO)气候影响的研究评述[J].大气科学学报,2009,32(3):458-465.
134.梁必骐等.热带气象学[M].广州:中山大学出版社.1990.
135.梁红丽，肖子牛，宴红明.孟加拉湾冬季风及其与亚洲夏季气候的关系[J].热带气息学报，2004,20(5):537-547.
136. Limpasuvan V and Hartmann D L. Eddies and the annular modes of climate variability[J]. Geophysical ResearchLetters,1999,26(20):3133-3136.
137. Linkin Megan E., Sumant Nigam. The North Pacific Oscillation–West Pacific Teleconnection Pattern:Mature-Phase Structure and Winter Impacts[J]. J. Climate,2008,21(9):1979–1997.
138.林振敏,施能.北半球冬季大气环流遥相关型特征与我国区域气候[J].气象科技,2004,32(5):333-342
139.刘舸,纪立人,孙淑清,等.关于东亚冬季风指数的一个讨论-东亚中、低纬冬季风的差异[J].大气科学,2013,37(3):755-764.
140.刘怡,仇永炎.用轨迹法研究寒潮个例[J].气象学报,1992,50(1):60-71.
141. Liu H, E Tosi, S Tibalti. On the relationship between northern hemisphere weather regimes in winter time andspring precipitation over China[J]. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,1994,120:185-194.
142.刘莉红,郑祖光.近百余年我国气温变化的突变点分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(3):378-383.
143.刘实.确定东亚冬季风强度指数的一种方法探讨[J].地理科学,2007,27(z1):10-18.
144.刘实,布和朝鲁,陶诗言,等.东亚冬季风强度的统计预测方法研究[J].大气科学,2010,34(1):35-44.
145. Lorenz D J and Hartmann D L. Eddy-zonal flow feedback in the Southern Hemisphere[J]. Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,2000,58(21):3312-3327
146. Lorenz E N. Seasonal and irregular variations of the Northern Hemisphere sealevel pressure profile[J]. Journal ofMeteorology,1951,8(1):52-59.
147.卢爱刚,庞德谦,康世昌,等.全球变暖背景下中国气温时空差异响应[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(8):61-65.
148. Lu E, Chan J C L.Aunified monsoon index for South China[J]. Journal of Climate,1999,12(8):2375-2385.
149.卢孟明.1992/93年冬季寒潮与大气低频波动之关系.海峡两岸天气与气候学术研讨会论文汇编.台湾,1994,49-63.
150. Luo Yong, Zhao Zongci, Xu Ying, Gao Xuejie and Ding Yihui. Projections of Climate Change over China for the21st Century[J].ACTAMETEOROLOGICASINICA.2005,19(4):401-406
151.马晓青，丁一汇，徐海明，何金海.2004/2005年冬季强寒潮事件与大气低频波动关系的研究[J].大气科学.2008,32(2):380-393.
152. Mantua N J, Hare S R, Zhang Y, et al. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmonproduction[J]. Bull.Amer. Soc.,1997,78(6):1069-1079.
153.穆明权,李崇银.东亚冬季风年际变化的ENSO信息Ⅰ.观测资料分析[J].大气科学,1999,23(3):276-185.
154. Namias J. Recent seasonal interaction between North Pacific waters and the overlying atmospheric circulation[J]. JGeogphys Res,1959,64(2):631-646.
155. Namias J. Short-period climate fluctions[J]. Science,1965,147(2):696-706.
156.潘敖大,李忠贤,倪东鸿,等.欧洲冬季500hPa环流异常及与中国气候异常的关系[J].气象科学,2011,31(2):129-134.
157.潘晓华，翟盘茂.气温极端值的选取与分析[J].气象,2002,28(10):28-31.
158.庞子琴，郭品文.不同年代际背景下AO与冬季中国东北气温的关系[J].大气科学学报,2010,33(4):469-476.
159. Park T W, Ho C H, Yang S. Relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and cold surges over East Asia[J]. Journalof Climate,2011,24(1):68-83.
160.裴顺强，李崇银.东亚冬季风及其影响的进一步研究I.东亚冬季风变化及异常的特征[J].气候与环境研究,2007,12(2):124-136.
161. Qian W, Lin X. Regional trends in recent temperature indices in China[J]. Climate Research,2004,27(2):119-134.
162.钱维宏,张宗婕.南方持续低温冻雨事件预测的前期信号[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(5):1501-1512.
163.乔云亭，陈烈庭，张庆云.东亚季风系数的定义及其与中国气候的关系[J].大气科学，2002,26(1):69-82.
164.曲金华,江志红,谭桂容,等.冬季北大西洋海温年际、年代际变化与中国气温的关系[J].地理科学,2006,26(5):557-563
165.任福民，翟盘茂.1951-1990年中国极端气温变化分析[J].大气科学，1998,22(2):217-227.
166. Ren Fumin, Donglin Cui, Zhiqiang Gong, et al. An Objective Identification Technique for Regional ExtremeEvents[J]. J. Climate,2012,25(20):7015–7027.
167.任国玉,初子莹,周雅清,等.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究，2005,10(4):701-716.
168.任国玉,陈峪,邹旭恺,等.综合极端气候指数的定义和趋势分析[J].气候与环境研究,2010,15(4):354-364.
169. Ren Guoyu, Ding Yihui, Zhao Zongci, et al. Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change in China [J]. AdvancesinAtmospheric Sciences,2012,29(5):958-977.
170. Richard A. Kerr. ExpertsAgree Global Warming Is Melting the World Rapidly [J]. Science,2012,338:1138.
171. Richman M B. Rotation of principal components[J]. J. Climate,1986,6(3):293-333.
172. Rigor I G, Colony R L and Martin S. Variations in Surface Air Temperature Observations in the Arctic,1979-97[J].Journal of Climate,2000,13(5):896-914.
173. Rigor, Ignatius G., John M. Wallace, Roger L. Colony. Response of Sea Ice to the Arctic Oscillation[J]. J. Climate,2002,15(18):2648–2663.
174. Riviere G and Orlanski I. Characteristics of the Atlantic Storm-Track Eddy Activity and Its Relation with the NorthAtlantic Oscillation[J]. Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences,2007,64(2):241-266
175. Rodionov S. N. A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2004,31(9): L09204.1-L09204.4.
176. Rodionov S. N. The problem of red noise in climate regime shift detection[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33: L12707, doi:10.1029/2006GL025904.
177. Roeckner E, Brokopf R, Esch M, et al. Sensitivity simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in theECHAM5atmosphere model. J Clim,2006,19:3771–3791.
178. Rothrock D A, Yu Y and Maykut G A. Thinning of the Arctic Sea-Ice Cover[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,1999,26(23):3469-3472
179. Screen J A and Simmonds I.2010. The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperatureamplification[J]. Nature,464:1334-1337.
180. Shabbar A, Huang J and Higuchi K. The relationship between the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation andblocking episodes in the NorthAtlantic[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2001,21(3):355-369.
181.邵鹏程，李栋梁.东亚冬季风指数的分类和比较[J],气象科学,2012,32(2):226-235.
182.施能.近40年东亚冬季风环流强度的多时间尺度变化特征及其与气候的关系[J].应用气象学报,1996,7(2):175-182.
183.施晓辉,徐祥德,谢立安.近40年来东亚冬季风的年代际时空变化趋势[J].大气科学.2007,31(4):747-756.
184. Shukla J and Wallace J M. Numerical Simulation of the Atmospheric Response to Equatorial Pacific Sea SurfaceTemperatureAnomalies[J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1983,40(7):1613-1630.
185. Sillmann J, Croci‐Maspoli M. Present and future atmospheric blocking and its impact on European mean andextreme climate[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36:L10702.
186. Smith T M, Reynolds R W. Improved extended reconstruction of SST(1854-1997)[J]. J Climate,2004,17(12):2466-2477.
187.宋连春,俞亚勋,孙旭映,等.北极涛动与我国北方强沙尘暴的关系[J].高原气象,2004,23(6):835-839.
188.宋燕,季劲钧.气候变暖的显著性检验以及温度场和降水场的时空分布特征[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(2):157-165.
189.所玲玲,黄嘉佑,谭本馗.北极涛动对我国冬季同期极端气温的影响研究[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(2):163-168.
190.索渺清,丁一汇.冬半年副热带南支西风槽结构和演变特征研究[J].大气科学,2009,33(3):425-442.
191.孙柏民,孙淑清.东亚冬季风异常及其影响的统计研究//何金海:亚洲季风研究的新进展.北京：气象出版社,1996,108-113.
192.孙柏民,李崇银.冬季东亚大槽的扰动与热带对流活动的关系[J].科学通报,1997,42(5):500-504.
193. Sun Bomin and Sun Shuqing.1994. The analysis on the features of the atmospheric circulation in preceding winterfor the summer drought and flooding in the Yangtze and Huaihe River valley[J]. Advances in AtmosphericSciences,1994,11(1):79-90.
194.孙丞虎,任福民,周兵,等.2011/2012年冬季我国异常低温特征及其可能成因分析[J].气象,2012,38(7):884-889.
195. Sun J Q, Wang H J, Yuan W, et al. Spatial-temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possiblechange[J]. J Geophys Res,2010,115: D16110.
196.孙淑清,孙柏民.东亚冬季风环流异常与中国江淮流域夏季旱涝天气的关系[J].气象学报,1995,53(4):438-450
197.唐国利，丁一汇.由最高最低气温求算的平均气温对我国年平均气温序列影响[J].应用气象学报.2007,18(2):187-192
198.唐国利，丁一汇，王绍武，等.中国近百年温度曲线的对比分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(2):71-78.
199.唐国利,罗勇,黄健斌,等.气候变暖在继续[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(4):235-242.
200.唐红玉，翟盘茂.1951-2002年中国东、西部地区地面气温变化对比[J].地球物理学报，2005,4（83）：526-534.
201.唐红玉，翟盘茂，王振宇.1951-2002年中国平均最高、最低气温及日较差变化[J].气候与环境研究.2005,10(4):728-735.
202.陶诗言.冬季由印缅来的低槽对于华南天气的影响[J].气象学报,1952,23(3):172-192.
203.陶诗言.东亚冬季冷空气活动的研究[J].中央气象局.短期预报手册,1957.
204. Taylor K E, Stouffer R J, Meehl G A. An overview of CMIP5and the experiment design[J]. BAMS,2012:485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
205. Thompson D W J and Wallace J M. The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height andtemperature fields[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,1998,25(9):1297-1300.
206. Thompson D W J and Wallace J M. Regional climate impacts of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode[J].Science,2001,293(5527):85-89.
207. Thompson D W J, Lee S and Baldwin M P. Atmospheric Processes Governing the Northern Hemisphere AnnularMode/North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Geophysical monograph,2003,134:81-112
208. Thorncroft C D, Hoskins B J and McIntyre M E. Two paradigms of baroclinic wave life-cycle behavior[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1993,119(509):17-55.
209. Tomita T, Yasunari T. Role of the northeast winter monsoon on the biennial oscillation of the ENSO/monsoonsystem[J]. J.Meteor.Soc. Japan,1996,74(4):399-413.
210. Trenberth K E, Hurrell J W. Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific[J]. Clim. Dynam.,1994,9(6):303-309.
211. Trenberth K E, Shea D J. Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in2005[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33(12).
212. Walker G T and Bliss E W. World Weather V[M], Memoirs of the R. M. S.1932,4:53-83
213. Wallace J M and Gutzler D S. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemispherewinter[J]. Monthly Weather Review,1981,109(4):784-812
214. Wallace J M. North Atlantic Oscillation/Annular Mode: Two Paradigms-One Phenomenon[J]. Quarterly Journalof the Royal Meteorological Society,2000a,126(564):791-805
215. Wallace J M. On theArctic andAntarctic Oscillation[R]. NCAR Summer Colloquium Lecture Notes,2000b.
216. Wallace J M and Thompson D W J. The Pacific Center of Action of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode: RealorArtifact[J]. Journal of Climate,2002,15(14):1987-1991.
217. Wang H J, Ye E T, Yang S. An exceptionally heavy snowfall in Northeast China: Large-scale circulation anomaliesand hindcast of the NCAR WRF model[J]. Meteorol Atmos Phys,2011,113(1-2):11-25.
218. Wang H J, Sun J Q. Variability of northeast China river break-up data[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2009,26(4):701-706.
219.王会军和姜大膀.2004.一个新的东亚冬季风强度指数及其强弱变化之大气环流场差异[J].第四纪研究,24(1):19-27.
220.王会军，贺圣平.我国东北冬季降雪的年代季增多及其与冬季风减弱的关系[J].科学通报,2013,58(8):629-633.
221.贺圣平,王会军.东亚冬季风综合指数及其表达的东亚冬季风年际变化特征[J].大气科学,2012,36(3):523-538.
222.王会军，范可.东亚冬季风近几十年来的主要变化特征[J].大气科学,2013,37(2):313-318.
223. Wang Lin, Chen Wen, Huang Ronghui. Interdecadal modulation of PDO on the impact of ENSO on the East Asianwinter monsoon[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35, L20702, doi:10.1029/2008GL035287.
224. Wang Lin, Wen Chen, Wen Zhou, Ronghui Huang. Interannual Variations of East Asian Trough Axis at500hPaand itsAssociation with the EastAsian Winter Monsoon Pathway[J]. J. Climate,2009,22(3):600–614.
225. Wang Lin, Huang Ronghui, Gu L, et al.2009. Interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and theirassociation with quasi-stationary planetary wave activity[J]. Journal of Climate,2009,22(18):4860-4872.
226. Wang Lin, Chen Wen. How well do Exisiting Indices Measure the strength of the East Asian Monsoon[J]. AdvAtmos Sci,2010,27(4):855-870.
227. Wang Lin, Chen Wen. Downward Arctic Oscillation signal associated with moderate weak stratospheric polarvortex and the cold2009December[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2010,37, L09707.
228. Wang L, Chen W. An intensity index for the East Asian winter monsoon[J]. Journal of Climate,2013(2013).
229. Wang L, Chen W. The East Asian winter monsoon: Re-amplification in the mid-2000s[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2014,59(4):430-436.
230. Wang Y, Li S, Luo D. Seasonal response of Asian monsoonal climate to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres (1984–2012),2009,114(D2).
231.王林，陈文，等.北太平洋涛动的季节演变及其与我国冬春气候异常的联系[J].大气科学,2011,35(3):393-402.
232.王启祎,丁一汇.东亚冬季风的演变特征[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(2):186-196.
233.王启祎,丁一汇，江滢.亚洲季风活动及其与中国大陆江水关系[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(1):84-89.
234.王绍武.近百年气候变化与变率的诊断研究[J].气象学报,1994,52(3):261-273.
235.王绍武,叶瑾琳.近百年全球气候变暖的分析[J].大气科学,1995,19(5):545-553.
236.王绍武,叶瑾琳,龚道溢,等.近百年中国年气温序列的建立[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(4):92-101.
237.王绍武.现代气候学研究进展[M].气象出版社,2001.
238.王绍武，罗勇，唐国利，等.近10年全球变暖停滞了吗[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(2):95-99.
239.王晓娟,龚志强,任福民,等.1960-2009年中国冬季区域性极端低温事件的时空特征[J].气候变化研究进展.2012,8(1):8-15.
240.王亚伟，翟盘茂，田华.近四十年南方高温变化特征与2003年的高温事件[J].气象，2006，32(10):27-33.
241.王遵娅，丁一汇.近50年来中国气候变化特征的再分析[J].气象学报.2004,62(2):228-236
242.王遵娅，丁一汇.近53年中国寒潮的变化特征及其可能原因[J].大气科学.2006,30(6):1068-1076.
243.韦道明，李崇银.东亚冬季风的区域差异和突变特征[J].高原气象，2009,28(5):1149-1157.
244.魏凤英，曹鸿兴.20世纪我国气候增暖进程的统计事实[J].应用气象学报，2003,14(1):79-86.
245. Wei Junhong, Lin Zhaohui. The Leading Mode of Wintertime Cold Wave Frequency in Northern China during theLast42Years and Its Association with Arctic Oscillation[J]. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCELETTERS,2009,2(3):130－134.
246. Wei K, Chen W, Zhou W. Changes in the EastAsian cold season since2000[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2011,28(1):69-79.
247.魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术.2007,北京:气象出版社.
248. Wen Min, Yang Song, Kumar A, et al. An analysis of the large-scale climate anomalies associated with thesnowstorms affecting China in January2008[J]. Mon Wea Rev,2009,137(3):1111-1131.
249.武炳义,黄荣辉,高登义.冬季北极喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积变化对东亚冬季风的影响[J].大气科学,1999,23(3):267-275.
250.武炳义,黄荣辉.冬季北大西洋涛动极端异常变化与东亚冬季风[J].大气科学,1999,23(6):641-651.
251.武炳义,黄荣辉,高登义.北极海冰的厚度和面积变化对大气环流影响的数值模拟研究[J].气象学报,2001,59(4):414-428.
252.武炳义，卞林根，张人禾.冬季北极涛动和北极海冰变化对东亚气候变化的影响[J].极地研究,2004,16(3):211-220
253.武炳义,苏志京,张人禾.秋冬季节北极海冰对冬季西伯利亚高压的影响[J].科学通报,2011,56(27):2335-2343.
254. Wu B Y, Wang J. Winter Arctic oscillation, Siberian high and East Asian winter monsoon[J]. Geophysical ResearchLetters,2002,29(19):1897.
255. Wu Bingyi and Wang Jia. Possible impacts of winter Arctic Oscillation on Siberian high, the East Asian wintermonsoon and sea–ice extent[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2002,19(2):297-320.
256. Wu B Y, Wang J, Walsh J. Possible feedback of winter sea ice in the Greenland and Barents Seas on the localatmosphere[J]. Mon. Wea. Rev.,2004,132(7):1868-1876.
257. Wu B Y, Su J Z, Zhang R H. Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High[J]. Chinese Sci Bull,2011,56(30):3220-3228.
258. Wu M C, Leung Y K, Chang W L. Relationship between winter temperature in Hong Kong and East Asian WinterMonsoon. Symposium on Asian Monsoon Winter MONEX: A Quarter Century and Beyond. Malaysia.2006,75-78.
259.吴尚森,梁建茵.华南冬季异常冷月预测概念模型Ⅱ-大气环流、极冰、积雪等物理因子特征[J].热带气象学报,2000,66(5):781-788.
260.徐国昌.青藏高原冷暖与东亚大气环流的统计分析[J].气象,1987,13（1）：20-24.
261.徐建军,朱乾根,周铁汉.近百年东亚冬季风的突变性和周期性[J].应用气象学报,1999,10(1):1-8.
262.徐淑英,季劲钧.我国冬季风来临的天气气候学研究[J].地理期刊,1965,9:85-101.
263.徐影，丁一汇，赵宗慈.近30年人类活动对东亚地区气候变化影响的检测与评估[J].气象学报.2002,13(5):513-525.
264.晏红明，段玮，肖子牛.东亚冬季风与中国夏季气候变化[J].热带气象学报,2003,19(4):367-376.
265.晏红明,周文,杨辉,等.东亚冬季风指数的定义及其年际年代际异常[J].大气科学学报,2009,32(3):367-376.
266.杨桂英,章淹.冬季东亚大槽异常与El Nino的关系[J].应用气象学报,1994,5(1):114-118.
267.杨松，朱乾根.冷涌结构及冷涌期中低纬度环流相互作用的数值模拟[J].热带气象.1989,5(3):328-333.
268. Yang Song, K M Lau, K M Kim. Variations of the East Asian Jet Stream and Asian–Pacific–American WinterClimateAnomalies[J]. J. Climate,2002,15(3):306–325.
269.杨修群，黄士松.欧亚雪盖的气候效应及其在冬季风形成中的作用[J].南京大学学报,1992,28(2):326-335.
270.杨修群,朱益民,谢倩,等.太平洋年代际振荡的研究进展[J].大气科学,1994,28(6):979-992.
271.杨绚，李栋梁.我国冬季气温异常对东亚季风和高原加热场的响应[J].高原气象,2009,28(4):731-737.
272.姚惠茹,李栋梁.亚洲急流与冬季风的关系及其对中国冬季气候的影响[J]，气象学报，2013,71(3),429-439.
273.么枕生.聚类统计检验用于气候分类[M].气候学研究（4）-气候理论与应用,北京:气象出版社,1997,85-94.
274.曾红玲,高新全,戴新刚.近20年全球冬、夏季海平面气压场和500hPa高度场年代际变化特征分析[J].高原气象,2002,21(1):66-73.
275.曾剑，张强，王同美.东亚冬季风与中国南方冬季降水的关系分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(4):975-981.
276.曾琮，胡斯团，梁建茵，等.东亚冬季风异常与广东前汛期旱涝关系的初步分析[J].应用气象学报[J]，2005,16(5):645-554.
277.翟盘茂，任福民.中国近四十年最高最低温度变化[J].气象学报,1997,55(4):418-429.
278.翟盘茂，潘晓华.中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化[J].地理学报.2003，58(S1):1-10.
279. Zhai Panmao, Ren Fumin. On changes of China's maximum and minimum temperatures in the recent40years.Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1997,55(4):418-429.
280. Zhai Panmao, Sun A, Ren Fumin, et al. Changes of climate extremes in China[M]//Weather and Climate Extremes.Springer Netherlands,1999,203-218.
281. Zhai Panmao, Pan Xiaohua. Trends in temperature extremes during1951–1999in China[J]. Geophysical ResearchLetters,2003,30(17):1913
282. Zhai Panmao, Zhang Xuebin, Wan Hui, Pan Xiaohua. Trends in Total Precipitation and Frequency of DailyPrecipitation Extremes over China[J]. J. Climate,2005,18(7),1096-1108.
283.张培忠,陈光明.影响中国寒潮冷高压的统计研究[J].气象学报,1999,57(4):493-501.
284.张鹏飞,鲁亚斌,张杰,普贵明.一次低纬高原地区大到暴雪天气过程的诊断分析[J].高原气象.2006,25(4):696-703.
285.张庆云,陶诗言,彭京备.我国灾害性天气气候事件成因机理的研究进展[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):815-825.
286. Zhang R., A. Sumi, and M. Kimoto. Impact of El Ni o on the east Asian monsoon: Adiagnostic study of the86/87and91/92events[J]. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan.,1996,74(1),49-62.
287. Zhang Y, Sperber K, Boyle J. Climatology and interannual variation of the East Asian winter monsoon: Resultsfrom the1979-95NCEP/NCAR reanalysis[J]. Mon Wea Rev,1997,125(10):2605-2616.
288. Zhang Yingxian, Ding Yihui, Li Qiaoping. A Climatology of Extratropical Cyclones over East Asia During1958-2001[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2012,26(3):261-277.
289. Zhang Zongjie, Qian Weihong. Identifying regional prolonged low temperature events in China[J]. Advances inAtmospheric Sciences,2011,28:338-351.
290.张宗婕,钱维宏.中国冬半年区域持续性低温事件的前期信号[J].大气科学,2012,36(6):1269-1279.
291.赵汉光，张先恭.东亚季风与我国夏季玉带的关系[J].气象，1996,22(4):8-12.
292.赵宗慈,罗勇,黄建斌.对地球系统模式评估方法的回顾[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):001-008.
293.赵宗慈,王绍武,徐影,等.近百年我国地表气温趋势变化的可能原因[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):808-817.
294. Zhao Zongci, Ding Yihui, Luo Yong and Wang Shaowu. Recent Studies on Attributions of Climate Change inChina[J].ACTAMETEOROLOGICASINICA.2005,19(4):389-400.
295.赵宗慈,王绍武,罗勇,等.近百年气候变暖的不确定性分析[J].科技导报,2009(23):41-48.
296. Zhou W, Li C Y, Wang X. Possible connection between Pacific Oceanic interdecadal pathway and East Asianwinter monsoon[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett,2007,34(1), L01701.
297.周雅清,任国玉.中国大陆1956~2008年极端气温事件变化特征分析[J].气候与环境研究,2010(4):405-417.
298. Zhu C, Lee W S, Kang H, et al. A proper monsoon index for seasonal and interannual variations of the East Asianmonsoon[J]. Geophysical research letters,2005,32(2).
299.朱抱真,丁一汇,罗会邦.关于东亚大气环流和季风的研究[J].气象学报,1990,48(1):4-16.
300.祝从文，何金海，吴国雄.东亚季风指数及其与大尺度热力环流年际变化关系[J].气象学报,2008,66(5):781-788.
301.朱乾根,杨松.青藏高原大地形对冷涌作用的数值模拟研究[J].气象学报,1990,48(2):162-171.
302.朱乾根.我国的东亚冬季风研究.气象[J]，1990,16(1):3-10.
303.朱伟军,孙照渤. ENSO事件对冬季北半球太平洋风暴轴维持的影响[J].南京气象学院学报,1998,21(2):189-195.
304.朱伟军,孙照渤.冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年际变化及其与500hPa高度以及热带和北太平洋海温的联系[J].气象学报,2000,58(3):309-320
305.朱艳峰，谭桂容，王永光.中国冬季气温变化的空间模态及其与大尺度环流异常的联系[J]．气候变化研究进展,2007,3(5):266-270．
306.朱艳峰.一个适用于描述中国大陆冬季气温变化的东亚冬季风指数[J].气象学报,2008,66(5):781-788.
307.朱益民，杨修群.太平洋年代际振荡与中国气候变率的联系[J].气象学报,2003,61(6):641-654.