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环境约束下要素集聚与区域经济可持续发展
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摘要
可持续发展战略是人类经济和社会发展的内在要求,区域资源环境是区域经济发展的基础。长期以来,我国区域经济增长很大程度上是建立在对资源、能源的高消耗上,这种传统的发展模式无可避免地造成了环境污染。日益恶化的生态环境已成为影响区域经济可持续发展的制约因素。在环境约束下探求区域经济可持续发展路径,已经成为加快经济发展方式转变和实现区域经济又好又快发展的关键问题。
     要素集聚作为经济全球化背景下一种特有的资源配置方式,对当地经济增长具有巨大的推动作用,但在区域经济增长过程中要注重经济与环境的协调。只有大力发展区域创新能力,推动区域经济增长模式由要素推动型转变为创新驱动型,才能实现区域经济可持续发展。本文根据区域创新能力对区域经济发展过程中资源环境约束的突破作用,以区域创新能力为中介变量,沿着由要素集聚到区域创新能力的形成,再到区域全要素生产率增长和区域经济空间结构优化的时空演进路径,系统阐述了要素集聚对区域创新能力的影响机制、区域创新能力对区域环境全要素生产率的动力机制,并从时空的维度揭示环境约束下要素集聚促进区域经济协调可持续发展的内在作用机理。本文的主要内容和结论如下:
     (1)界定了要素集聚、区域创新能力与区域经济发展的内涵。要素集聚是各生产要素(劳动力、物质资本和人力资本)依托着企业的经济活动,在企业内部规模扩张和更多企业空间集中的引导下,以一定的结构聚集在某一特定区域,并通过要素集聚效应的发挥提升区域创新能力,促进区域经济发展。
     区域经济发展是时间维度和空间维度、数量维度和质量维度上的立体展开。本文从三个方面考虑区域经济发展:一是区域经济规模的扩大和生产效率的提高;二是区域经济空间结构的优化;三是注重绿色、清洁技术在区域经济发展的应用,不对生态环境造成破坏。区域经济发展必须依靠区域创新能力的提高。
     区域创新能力是指一定区域的创新主体直接或间接地参与知识生产或技术创新,通过对创新资源进行集成和融合,提高知识存量和技术水平的能力。本文从知识创造、知识获取、企业技术创新和创新环境四方面分析区域创新能力的内涵。
     (2)要素集聚、区域经济发展与环境的互动机制。地区的生态环境特色和优势通过影响要素的流动和区位变迁决定要素的集聚。要素集聚给集聚区带来了丰厚经济收益的同时,也给生态环境带来负效应。区域创新能力是实现区域经济发展与环境保护双赢的根本途径。
     本文以二氧化碳的排放作为环境污染的替代变量,测度我国各地区能源消耗所产生的碳足迹,并测度劳动力、物质资本和人力资本的集聚密度、区位商和空间自相关性,发现劳动力、物质资本和人力资本都呈现高度集聚和空间相关特征。本文利用Divisia指数分解法,分析了区域经济增长对环境污染排放量的规模效应、技术进步效应、区域产业结构效应和空间结构效应。结果表明,规模效应和区域产业结构的不合理是导致环境污染加重的主要原因,区域空间结构效应对环境质量的改善起到不利的影响;技术效应对环境质量的改善起到正向促进作用。
     (3)环境约束下要素集聚对区域创新能力的影响机制。物质资本集聚过程中表现出资本深化的特征,但资本深化对经济发展的促进作用只有在资本深化促进区域创新能力的前提下才能成立。人力资本集聚有利于信任的产生和知识尤其是隐含经验类知识的传播,从而产生知识溢出效应。本文通过构建空间知识溢出模型分析物质资本投资(资本深化)、人力资本集聚对知识存量增长率的影响,发现人力资本集聚提高了区域吸收能力,增大了知识溢出,物质资本投资体现了知识生产的干中学效应,增大落后地区的人力资本和物质资本投入,有助于缩小知识差距,实现区域经济趋同。
     本文利用GWR模型实证分析了物质资本集聚、人力资本集聚、能源足迹强度和环境规制水平对区域创新能力的影响。结果表明,物质资本集聚带来的资本深化并未转化为技术深化,对区域创新能力没有促进作用;而人力资本集聚对区域创新能力表现出明显的促进作用;能源足迹强度越大,对区域创新能力的制约作用越大;环境规制对区域创新能力具有双重效应,当期环境规制政策不利于区域创新能力的提高,而前期环境规制对区域创新的激励作用正在凸显,弥补甚至超过了环境成本负效应。
     (4)环境约束下区域创新能力对经济增长效率的动力机制。区域环境全要素生产率的增长体现了区域经济发展质量。本文构建数理模型分析了区域创新能力的提高和污染排放量的减少对区域全要素生产率增长的动力机制。在此基础上.利用SBM方向性距离函数和GML指数测算及分解了中国各省市的环境技术效率和环境全要素生产率增长。结果表明,环境技术效率在省际间的分布不均,技术进步及其导致的规模报酬递增在推动环境全要素生产率增长中占据主导地位。
     本文在控制了产业结构、外商直接投资、市场化程度等变量的基础上,利用Tobit模型分析了环境规制、区域创新能力对环境技术效率和环境全要素生产率增长的影响。结果发现,区域创新能力对环境效率和环境全要素增长率具有显著的促进作用;政府环境规制与环境效率和环境全要素生产率负相关。
     (5)环境约束下要素集聚对区域经济持续增长的内生机制。构建包含要素集聚和环境质量的内生增长模型,利用Hamilton动态优化模型求解最优稳态增长解,讨论经济可持续发展的必要条件和集聚外部性程度、消费和环境偏好、污染排放密度等参数与经济增长率之间应满足的动态关系。结果显示,在经济可持续增长的均衡路径上,集聚的空间外部性越大,人力资本积累速度越快,污染排放密度的指数越大,时间贴现率越低,对环境质量的偏好程度越大,跨期替代弹性越小,则经济增长率越大。
     利用面板固定效应模型对区域经济发展的影响因素进行实证分析,结果显示,物质资本集聚与区域经济增长之间存在“倒U型”关系,物质资本过度集聚时,阻碍了劳动生产率的提高;人力资本集聚对劳动生产率具有显著的促进作用;无效环境效率对劳动生产率的提高具有显著的阻碍作用;只有人力资本集聚通过作用于区域创新能力间接促进区域经济发展。
     (6)环境约束下要素集聚对区域经济协调发展的作用机制。构建局部溢出模型,分析要素空间集聚的需求关联、溢出等外部规模经济效应与环境污染、拥挤等外部不经济效应对区域经济协调发展的作用机制。结果发现需求关联效应和溢出效应为聚集力,环境污染、拥挤等外部不经济效应为维持对称均衡的分散力,同时,溢出效应也可成为促进经济分散的力量;要素空间集聚与经济增长之间存在“倒U型”的关系;由于溢出效应的存在,经济增长速度越快的地区对外辐射能力越强,越有利于缩小区域经济差距。
     区域经济合作有利于区域知识溢出、经济辐射效应的发挥,同时也是解决区域性环境污染的重要途径。本文构建区域经济合作的博弈模型分析区域经济合作效用的分配问题和合作机制的形成。参与合作的各地方政府给联盟带来经济效用增量和环境效用损失,两者的差值是参与合作的各地方政府给联盟带来的净效用,根据此比例分配区域经济合作中获得的效用。区域经济合作机制形成的充分条件是各地方政府参与合作带来的效用大于不合作时所能获得的效用,各地区要素的互补性是区域经济合作的必要条件。
     最后根据理论分析和实证研究结果,从区域创新能力的提高、要素的合理配置、生态环境的改善三方面提出了促进区域经济发展的政策建议。
Sustainable economic development strategy is the inherent requirement of human economic and social development, and regional resources and environment is the basis of regional economic development. For a long time, China's regional economic rapid growth is largely based on high consumption of resources and energy, the traditional model of development inevitably resulted in environmental pollution. The deteriorating ecological environment has become the constraints of regional economic sustainable growth. Exploring regional economic development path under environmental constraints has become the key issues of speeding up economic development pattern and achieving sound and rapid development of regional economy.
     Factor agglomeration is a unique mode of resource allocation in the context of economic globalization, and has a huge role on promoting local economic growth, but in the process of regional economic growth should pay attention to the coordination of the economy and the environment. Only to develop regional innovation capacity, promote regional economic growth model to change from material elements-driven into the innovation-driven, until achieve regional economic development. According to the breakthrough role of regional innovation capability on resource and environmental constraints on the process of regional economic development, regional innovation capacity as mediating variables, we along timing evolution path of factor agglomeration to regional innovation capability, to regional total factor productivity growth, analyze influence mechanism of factor agglomeration on regional innovation capability, dynamic mechanism of regional innovation capacity on total factor productivity, revealing underlying mechanisms of factor agglomeration on promoting coordinated and sustainable development of regional economy under environmental constraints from the dimension of time-space. The main contents and conclusions are as follows:
     (1) Define the connotation of factor agglomeration, the regional innovation capacity and regional economic development. Factor agglomeration is that various factors of production (labor, physical capital and human capital) relying on the economic activities of enterprises, by a certain structure gather in a given region under the guidance of internal expansion and spatial concentration of more businesses, and through effect of factor agglomeration enhance regional innovation ability, then promote regional economic development.
     Regional economic development is not only the quantitative growth, but also focus on the growth quality. Regional economic development are considered from three aspects:Firstly, the expansion of the regional economic scale and improvement of production efficiency; Secondly, the optimization of regional spatial structure; Thirdly, focusing on the application of green, clean technologies to the regional economic development, not damage the ecological environment. Regional economic development must rely on regional innovation capability.
     Regional innovation capacity refers to capabilities of improving the stock of knowledge and skill levels, innovation subjects of a certain area directly or indirectly involving in the production of knowledge or technology innovation, through integration and convergence of innovative resources. Regional innovation capability was analyzes from the four aspects of knowledge creation, knowledge acquisition, corporate innovation and the innovation environment.
     (2) Interactive mechanism among factor agglomeration, regional economic development and environment. The characteristics and advantages of the ecological environment through the mobility of factors and location changes determinants factor agglomeration. Factor agglomeration has brought huge economic benefits to gathering area, also brought negative effects to the ecological environment. Regional Innovation capability is the fundamental way to achieve win-win of regional economic development and environmental protection.
     Taking carbon dioxide emissions as an alternative to variable environmental pollution, this article measures carbon footprint of energy consumption, and measures density, location quotient and spatial autocorrelation of labor, physical capital and human capital, and found that labor, physical capital and human capital are highly concentrated and positive spatial correlated. This paper uses the Divisia index decomposition method to analyze the scale effect, technological progress effect, regional industrial structure effects and spatial structure effects of regional economic growth on environmental pollution emissions. The results showed that unreasonable of the scale and regional industrial structure is the main reason for environmental pollution, regional spatial structure play an adverse impact on the improvement of the environment quality; technical effects play a positive role on promoting the improvement of the environment quality.
     (3) Influence mechanisms of factor agglomeration on regional innovation capability under environmental constraints. Physical capital agglomeration shows the characteristics of capital deepening, but capital deepen promoting economic development can be established only under the premise of capital deepen promoting regional innovation capability. Agglomeration of human capital is conducive to the generation of trust and the spread of knowledge, especially tacit knowledge, resulting in knowledge spillovers. By building space knowledge spillover model, analyzes the effects of physical capital investment (capital deepen), agglomeration of human capital on the growth rate of the stock of knowledge, found that the agglomeration of human capital improves the regional absorptive capacity, increasing the knowledge spillover, investment in physical capital embodies the learning by doing effects of knowledge production, increasing the human capital and physical capital investment of the backward areas helps narrow of the knowledge gap, and the realization of regional economic convergence.
     This paper makes empirical analysis of agglomeration of material capital and human capital, the intensity of energy footprint and environmental regulation level on regional innovation capability using GWR model. The results show that capital deepen of physical capital agglomeration doesn't transform into technology deepening, and not promoting regional innovation capability; human capital agglomeration significantly promotes regional innovation capacity; the greater intensity of energy footprint is, the greater constraints role on the regional innovation capacity is; Environmental Regulation dual effect on regional innovation capability, and current environmental regulation policy is not conducive to improvement of regional innovation capability, while incentives role of the pre-environmental regulation on regional innovation is highlighted to make up, even more than the negative effect of environmental costs.
     (4) Dynamic mechanism of regional innovation capacity on economic growth efficiency under environmental constraints. The growth of the regional environment total factor productivity reflects the quality of regional economic development. The paper constructs a mathematical model to analyze the dynamic mechanism of the regional innovation capability and the reduction of pollution emissions on regional total factor productivity growth. On this basis, estimate and decompose the technical efficiency and total factor productivity growth of Chinese provinces and cities using the SBM directional distance function and the GML index under environmental constraints. The results show that distribution of environmental efficiency in inter-provincial is uneven; technological progress and resulting in increasing returns to scale is dominate to promote environmental total factor productivity growth.
     On the basis of controlling of the industrial structure, foreign direct investment, the degree of market variables, using Tobit model to analyze the effect of environmental regulation, regional innovation capacity on environmental efficiency and total factor productivity growth. It was found that regional innovation capability has a significant role on promoting environmental efficiency and total factor growth rate; government environmental regulation is negatively related to environmental total factor productivity of environmental efficiency.
     (5) Endogenous mechanisms of factor agglomeration on sustained economic growth under environmental constraints. Constructing endogenous growth model that contains factor agglomeration and environmental quality, and using the Hamilton dynamic optimization model to solve the optimal steady-state growth solution, this paper discusses necessary conditions for sustainable economic development, and the dynamic relationship of agglomeration external level, consumer and environmental preferences, pollution emission density and the rate of economic growth. The results show that on the equilibrium path of sustainable economic growth, the greater the spatial externality of agglomeration is, the faster the rate of human capital accumulation is, the greater the density index of pollution emissions is, the lower time discount rate is, the greater the preference of environmental quality is, the smaller inter-temporal elasticity of substitution is, then the greater the rate of economic growth is.
     Using panel fixed effects model to make an empirical analysis of factors affecting regional economic development, the results show that physical capital agglomeration and regional economic growth show the inverted U-shaped relationship, excessive physical capital agglomeration hinders the improvement of labor productivity; human capital, gathering a significant role in promoting labor productivity; an invalid environmental efficiency significantly hinders the growth of labor productivity; only human capital agglomeration by acting on regional innovation capability indirectly promote regional economic growth.
     (6) Active mechanism of factor agglomeration on coordinated development of regional economy under environmental constraints. This paper builds a local spillover model to analyze active mechanism of external economies of scale effect of spatial agglomeration, which are demand related and spillover, and external diseconomies of environmental pollution, crowding on regional economic coordinated development. The results showed that demand related effects and spillover effects are gathered force, environmental pollution, crowding and other external diseconomies are dispersion force to maintain balance symmetric. At the same time, spillover effects can also be a force for economic dispersion. There is "inverted U" relationship between industry agglomeration and economic development. Due to spillover effects, the faster economic growth, the stronger regional external radiation, the more conducive to narrow the regional gap.
     Regional economic cooperation is conducive to regional knowledge spillover and economic radiation, but also it is an important way to address regional environmental pollution. Build a game model of regional economic cooperation to analyze the utilities allocation problem of regional economic cooperation and the formation of cooperation mechanisms. Local governments participating in cooperation brings incremental of the economic utility and loss of environmental utility, the difference between the two is the net utility of local governments participating in cooperation bringing to the union, allocating utilities of regional economic cooperation according to this proportion of net utility. The sufficient condition of formation of regional economic cooperation mechanisms is that utility of local governments participating in cooperation is greater compared to not participating in cooperation. Complementary of factors is a necessary condition for regional economic cooperation.
     Finally, results of based on theoretical analysis and empirical research, we put forward policy recommendations of promoting regional economic development from the improvement of regional innovation capability, the rational allocation of the factors, and improvement of the ecological environment.
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