Development of IDF Curve for Dhaka City Based on Scaling Theory under Future Precipitation Variability Due to Climate Change
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- 英文论文题名：Development of IDF Curve for Dhaka City Based on Scaling Theory under Future Precipitation Variability Due to Climate Change
- 论文作者：S.Afrin ; M.M.Islam ; M.M.Rahman
- 英文论文作者：S.Afrin ; M.M.Islam ; M.M.Rahman ; the Department of Civil Engineering ; Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology(BUET)
- 年：2015
- 作者机构：the Department of Civil Engineering,Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology(BUET);
- 英文论文关键词：Climate change ; extreme values ; IDF curves ; scaling exponent ; simple scaling
- 会议召开时间：2015-05-01
- 会议录名称：International Journal of Environmental Science and Development Vol.6 No.5
- 语种：英文
- 分类号：P467
- 学会代码：CDYA
- 学会名称：成都亚昂教育咨询有限公司
- 页数：4
- 文件大小：1287k
- 原文格式：D
摘要
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to climate change. The magnitude and frequency of extreme events such as high intensity rainfall, flash flooding, severe droughts, etc. are expected to be altered in future as a consequence of this change. This can introduce an element of uncertainty in the design of hydraulic structures, urban drainage systems, and other water-sensitive structures, if the variability is not taken into consideration. This study aims at developing a regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency(IDF) relationship for Dhaka city for present as well as future climatic scenarios. The scaling properties of extreme rainfall are examined to establish scaling relationship behavior of statistical moments over different durations. The results show that a rainfall property in time does follow a simple scaling process. A scale invariance concept is explored for disaggregation(or downscaling) of rainfall intensity from low to high resolution and is applied to the derivation of scaling IDF curves. These curves are developed based on scaling of the generalized extreme value(GEV) and Gumbel probability distributions. It is seen that scaled estimates are relatively close to observed estimates.
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to climate change. The magnitude and frequency of extreme events such as high intensity rainfall, flash flooding, severe droughts, etc. are expected to be altered in future as a consequence of this change. This can introduce an element of uncertainty in the design of hydraulic structures, urban drainage systems, and other water-sensitive structures, if the variability is not taken into consideration. This study aims at developing a regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency(IDF) relationship for Dhaka city for present as well as future climatic scenarios. The scaling properties of extreme rainfall are examined to establish scaling relationship behavior of statistical moments over different durations. The results show that a rainfall property in time does follow a simple scaling process. A scale invariance concept is explored for disaggregation(or downscaling) of rainfall intensity from low to high resolution and is applied to the derivation of scaling IDF curves. These curves are developed based on scaling of the generalized extreme value(GEV) and Gumbel probability distributions. It is seen that scaled estimates are relatively close to observed estimates.
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to climate change. The magnitude and frequency of extreme events such as high intensity rainfall, flash flooding, severe droughts, etc. are expected to be altered in future as a consequence of this change. This can introduce an element of uncertainty in the design of hydraulic structures, urban drainage systems, and other water-sensitive structures, if the variability is not taken into consideration. This study aims at developing a regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency(IDF) relationship for Dhaka city for present as well as future climatic scenarios. The scaling properties of extreme rainfall are examined to establish scaling relationship behavior of statistical moments over different durations. The results show that a rainfall property in time does follow a simple scaling process. A scale invariance concept is explored for disaggregation(or downscaling) of rainfall intensity from low to high resolution and is applied to the derivation of scaling IDF curves. These curves are developed based on scaling of the generalized extreme value(GEV) and Gumbel probability distributions. It is seen that scaled estimates are relatively close to observed estimates.
引文
[1]F.Ahammed,G.A.Hewa,and J.R.Argue,“Introducing Leaky-well concept for stormwater quantity control in Dhaka,Bangladesh,”Appl Water Sci,vol.3,pp.115-123,2013.
[2]K.Adamowski,P.Pilon,and Y.Alila,“Regional short duration rainfall intensity-frequency formula for Canada,”presented at the International Workshop on Rainfall in Urban Areas,Pontresina,Switzerland,1997.
[3]J.Bougadis and K.Adamowski,“Scaling model of a rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationship,”Hydrol Process,vol.20,pp.3747-3757,2006.
[4]D.R.Maidment,Handbook of applied hydrology,Mc Graw-Hill,NY,1993.
[5]M.A.Rajib,M.M.Rahman,A.K.M.S.Islam,and E.A.Mc Bean,“Analyzing the future state of monthly precipitation pattern in Bangladesh from multi-model projections using both GCM and RCM,”in Proc.the World Environmental&Water Resources Congress,American Society of Civil Engineers(ASCE),2011,pp.23-26.
[6]S.B.Murshed,A.K.M.Islam,and M.S.A.Khan,“Impact of climate change on rainfall intensity in Bangladesh,”International Proceedings of Water and Flood Management,Dhaka,IWFM,pp.881–890,8–10January,2011
[7]IPCC,“Climate change:The scientific basis,”in Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,J.T.Houghton,Y.Ding,D.J.Griggs,M.Noguer,P.J.van der Linden,X.Dai,K.Maskell,and C.A.Johnson,Eds.Cambridge University Press,Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,NY,USA,2001.
[8]IPCC,“Climate Change”The physical science basis,”in Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change,S.Solomon,D.Qin,M.Manning,Z.Chen,M.Marquis,K.B.Averyt,M.Tignor,and H.L.Miller,Eds.Cambridge University Press,Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,NY,USA,2007.
[9]V.K.Gupta and E.Waymire,“Multiscaling properties of spatial rainfall and river flow distributions,”Journal of Geophysical Research,vol.95,pp.1999-2009,1990.
[10]Y.Kuzuha,Y.Komatsu,K.Tomosugi,and T.Kishii,“regional flood frequency analysis,scaling and PUB,”Journal Japan Soc.Hydrol.and Water Resources,vol.18,no.4,pp.441-458,2005.
[11]K.G.Tawhid,“Causes and effects of water logging in Dhaka City,Bangladesh,”M.S.thesis,Dept.of Land and Water Resource Eng.,Royal Institute of Technology,KTH Stockholm,2004.
[12]V.T.Chow,D.R.Maidment,and L.W.Mays,Applied Hydrology,Mc Graw-Hill,1988.
[13]V.T.Nguyen,T.D.Nguyen and F.Ashkar,“Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls,”Water Sci.Technol.,vol.45,no.2,pp.75-81,2002.
[14]C.L.Chen,“Rainfall intensity duration frequency formulas,”Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,ASCE,vol.109,no.12,pp.1603-1621,1983.
[15]D.Koutsoyiannis and A.Manetas,“A mathematical framework for studying rainfall intensity duration frequency relationships,”Journal of Hydrology,vol.206,pp.118–135,1998.
[16]U.C.Kothyari and R.J.Grade,“Rainfall intensity duration frequency formula for India,”J.Hydr.Eng.,ASCE,vol.118,no.2,pp.323-336,1992.
[17]L.M.Nhat,Y.Tachikawa,and K.Takara,“Establishment of Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves for precipitation in the monsoon area of Vietnam,”Annuals of Disas.Prev.Res.Inst.,Kyoto Univ.,no.49B,2006.
[18]M.Menabde,A.Seed,and G.Pegram,“A simple scaling model for extreme rainfall,”Water Resources Research,vol.35,no.1,pp.335-339,1999.
[2]K.Adamowski,P.Pilon,and Y.Alila,“Regional short duration rainfall intensity-frequency formula for Canada,”presented at the International Workshop on Rainfall in Urban Areas,Pontresina,Switzerland,1997.
[3]J.Bougadis and K.Adamowski,“Scaling model of a rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationship,”Hydrol Process,vol.20,pp.3747-3757,2006.
[4]D.R.Maidment,Handbook of applied hydrology,Mc Graw-Hill,NY,1993.
[5]M.A.Rajib,M.M.Rahman,A.K.M.S.Islam,and E.A.Mc Bean,“Analyzing the future state of monthly precipitation pattern in Bangladesh from multi-model projections using both GCM and RCM,”in Proc.the World Environmental&Water Resources Congress,American Society of Civil Engineers(ASCE),2011,pp.23-26.
[6]S.B.Murshed,A.K.M.Islam,and M.S.A.Khan,“Impact of climate change on rainfall intensity in Bangladesh,”International Proceedings of Water and Flood Management,Dhaka,IWFM,pp.881–890,8–10January,2011
[7]IPCC,“Climate change:The scientific basis,”in Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,J.T.Houghton,Y.Ding,D.J.Griggs,M.Noguer,P.J.van der Linden,X.Dai,K.Maskell,and C.A.Johnson,Eds.Cambridge University Press,Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,NY,USA,2001.
[8]IPCC,“Climate Change”The physical science basis,”in Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change,S.Solomon,D.Qin,M.Manning,Z.Chen,M.Marquis,K.B.Averyt,M.Tignor,and H.L.Miller,Eds.Cambridge University Press,Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,NY,USA,2007.
[9]V.K.Gupta and E.Waymire,“Multiscaling properties of spatial rainfall and river flow distributions,”Journal of Geophysical Research,vol.95,pp.1999-2009,1990.
[10]Y.Kuzuha,Y.Komatsu,K.Tomosugi,and T.Kishii,“regional flood frequency analysis,scaling and PUB,”Journal Japan Soc.Hydrol.and Water Resources,vol.18,no.4,pp.441-458,2005.
[11]K.G.Tawhid,“Causes and effects of water logging in Dhaka City,Bangladesh,”M.S.thesis,Dept.of Land and Water Resource Eng.,Royal Institute of Technology,KTH Stockholm,2004.
[12]V.T.Chow,D.R.Maidment,and L.W.Mays,Applied Hydrology,Mc Graw-Hill,1988.
[13]V.T.Nguyen,T.D.Nguyen and F.Ashkar,“Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls,”Water Sci.Technol.,vol.45,no.2,pp.75-81,2002.
[14]C.L.Chen,“Rainfall intensity duration frequency formulas,”Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,ASCE,vol.109,no.12,pp.1603-1621,1983.
[15]D.Koutsoyiannis and A.Manetas,“A mathematical framework for studying rainfall intensity duration frequency relationships,”Journal of Hydrology,vol.206,pp.118–135,1998.
[16]U.C.Kothyari and R.J.Grade,“Rainfall intensity duration frequency formula for India,”J.Hydr.Eng.,ASCE,vol.118,no.2,pp.323-336,1992.
[17]L.M.Nhat,Y.Tachikawa,and K.Takara,“Establishment of Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves for precipitation in the monsoon area of Vietnam,”Annuals of Disas.Prev.Res.Inst.,Kyoto Univ.,no.49B,2006.
[18]M.Menabde,A.Seed,and G.Pegram,“A simple scaling model for extreme rainfall,”Water Resources Research,vol.35,no.1,pp.335-339,1999.