大国产能外移的宏观经济条件与逻辑
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- 英文论文题名：Macroeconomic Conditions and Logic of Capacity Relocation of Great Power
- 论文作者：刘巍
- 英文论文作者：Wei Liu ; China Center for Special Economic Zone Research ; Shenzhen University
- 年：2017
- 作者机构：深圳大学中国经济特区研究中心;
- 论文关键词：对外投资 ; 供给约束 ; 需求约束 ; 消费 ; 出口
- 英文论文关键词：Foreign Investment ; Supply Constraint ; Demand Constraint ; Consumption ; Export
- 会议召开时间：2017-01-01
- 会议录名称：中国经济特区研究（2016年第1期 总第9期）
- 英文会议录名称：China's Special Economic Zones(2016 Number 1 Volume 9)
- 语种：中文
- 分类号：F113
- 学会代码：SZTQ
- 学会名称：深圳大学中国经济特区研究中心
- 页数：15
- 文件大小：551k
- 原文格式：O
摘要
本文从逻辑和历史两个角度讨论了一国大规模对外投资的宏观经济条件。在供给约束型经济态势下,资本存量短缺,国内投资空间广阔,对外投资能力很低,对外投资不是一国宏观经济本身的要求,FDI进入本国受到欢迎。在需求约束型经济初期,国内投资取决于消费和出口,只要政府动用宏观经济调节政策促进消费需求或出口需求上升,国内投资还是有较大空间的,对外投资并不十分迫切。当到达需求约束型经济的成熟阶段时,潜在需求与有效需求比较接近,国内私人投资空间相当狭小,向境外合适地区投资是宏观经济本身的迫切需要。同时,向境外投资又可以拉动本国的资本品出口,不仅能使GNP增长,而且可以促进GDP增长。
Macroeconomic conditions for large- scale investment abroad of a power are discussed in two angles of logic and history.Under the supply- constrained economic situation,since the capital stock is in shortage and the domestic investment space is wide,so not only the investment abroad isnt required in the macro economy of one country but also the ability of investment abroad is very low,and even the FDI is welcomed into home country.At the beginning of demand- constrained economy,the domestic investment depends on the consumptions and exports.As long as the government promotes the consumption demand by adapting the macroeconomic adjustment policies or the export demand rises,the domestic investment still has larger space but the investment abroad isnt very urgent.At the mature stage of demand- constrained economy,the potential demands are fairly close to the effective demands and the domestic private investment space is quite narrow,and hence it's urgent need of the macro economy to invest in the suitable foreign regions.Meanwhile,the investment abroad can also pull the capital goods output of home country which not only lets the GNP increase but also can promote the GDP increase.
Macroeconomic conditions for large- scale investment abroad of a power are discussed in two angles of logic and history.Under the supply- constrained economic situation,since the capital stock is in shortage and the domestic investment space is wide,so not only the investment abroad isnt required in the macro economy of one country but also the ability of investment abroad is very low,and even the FDI is welcomed into home country.At the beginning of demand- constrained economy,the domestic investment depends on the consumptions and exports.As long as the government promotes the consumption demand by adapting the macroeconomic adjustment policies or the export demand rises,the domestic investment still has larger space but the investment abroad isnt very urgent.At the mature stage of demand- constrained economy,the potential demands are fairly close to the effective demands and the domestic private investment space is quite narrow,and hence it's urgent need of the macro economy to invest in the suitable foreign regions.Meanwhile,the investment abroad can also pull the capital goods output of home country which not only lets the GNP increase but also can promote the GDP increase.
引文
[1]刘巍:《从供给约束型经济向需求约束型经济的转变——1952年以来中国经济态势初探》,《广东外语外贸大学学报》2011年第2期。
[2]刘巍、陈昭:《近代中国50年GDP的估算与经济增长研究》,经济科学出版社,2012。
[3]刘巍、李杰:《美国大萧条的逻辑起点:收人分配不公(1919~1929)》,《国际经贸探索》2014年第12期。
[4]刘巍、周锦兰:《IS-LM模型的必备前提:潜在需求大于有效需求》,《中国计量经济史研究》2015年第1期。
[5]刘巍、倪坤:《对凯恩斯投资函数前提与逻辑的讨论——基于需求约束前提的修正》,《中国计量经济史研究》2016年第2期。
(1)约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯:《就业利息和货币通论》,魏埙译,陕西人民出版社,2004。
(2)鲁迪格·多恩布什、斯坦利·费希尔:《宏观经济学》,范家骧等译,中国人民大学出版社1997。
(1)关于潜在需求的解释参见刘巍、周锦兰(2015),限于篇幅,不再赘述。
[2]刘巍、陈昭:《近代中国50年GDP的估算与经济增长研究》,经济科学出版社,2012。
[3]刘巍、李杰:《美国大萧条的逻辑起点:收人分配不公(1919~1929)》,《国际经贸探索》2014年第12期。
[4]刘巍、周锦兰:《IS-LM模型的必备前提:潜在需求大于有效需求》,《中国计量经济史研究》2015年第1期。
[5]刘巍、倪坤:《对凯恩斯投资函数前提与逻辑的讨论——基于需求约束前提的修正》,《中国计量经济史研究》2016年第2期。
(1)约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯:《就业利息和货币通论》,魏埙译,陕西人民出版社,2004。
(2)鲁迪格·多恩布什、斯坦利·费希尔:《宏观经济学》,范家骧等译,中国人民大学出版社1997。
(1)关于潜在需求的解释参见刘巍、周锦兰(2015),限于篇幅,不再赘述。