概率水平、决策者角色和模糊性对短视损失规避的影响
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- 英文论文题名：Effects of Task's Probability and Decision-makers' Roles on Myopic Loss Aversion
- 论文作者：徐富明 ; 张慧 ; 李彬
- 英文论文作者：XU Fuming ; ZHANG Hui ; LI Bin ; School of Psychology ; Central China Normal University
- 年：2015
- 作者机构：华中师范大学心理学院;
- 论文关键词：短视损失规避 ; 概率水平 ; 决策者角色 ; 概率模糊性
- 英文论文关键词：myopic loss aversion ; probability level ; decision-makers' roles ; ambiguity of probability
- 会议召开时间：2015-10-16
- 会议录名称：第十八届全国心理学学术会议摘要集——心理学与社会发展
- 英文会议录名称：Proceedings of the 18th National Academic Congress of Psychology
- 语种：中文
- 分类号：B848.4
- 学会代码：ZGXG
- 会议名称：第十八届全国心理学学术会议
- 会议地点：中国天津
- 主办单位：中国心理学会
- 学会名称：中国心理学会
- 页数：3
- 文件大小：791k
- 原文格式：D
- 会议级别：全国
摘要
短视损失规避(myopic loss aversion)指投资者越频繁地评价其投资回报,越能够经常改变其投资决策,在风险资产中的投入越少的行为,是行为经济学中一种极为普遍的现象。前人主要关注了评价周期的影响,但是很少从博弈任务本身出发,本研究以现实生活为基础,探索收益和损失的概率水平、概率模糊性和决策者角色在短视损失规避中的作用,分析短视损失规避出现的条件的原因。因此,本研究通过两个系列研究,首先在概率清楚的条件下,分析概率水平和决策者角色的作用,并对模糊概率下的短视损失规避现象进行探索。研究一采用2×3×2混合设计,探讨不同任务概率水平下,决策者角色对短视损失规避的影响,结果发现:任务的概率水平能够影响短视损失规避,短视损失规避在中等损失概率任务中存在,说明短视损失规避在日常生活中是一种普遍现象。与自我决策相比,在给他人提供建议时,短视损失规避现象没有出现,说明在他人决策时,个体的行为更理性。研究二采用2×3完全随机实验设计探索在概率未知情境下,概率水平对短视损失规避的影响,发现在概率未知情境下,个体在高损失概率任务中表现出短视损失规避,在低损失概率任务中表现出反向的短视损失规避,说明相比于概率已知情境,"短视"的作用在概率未知情境下更普遍。因此,短视损失规避是日常生活中的一种普遍现象,在一定程度上对股权溢价之谜提供了依据。由于股市的变动性和不确定性,人们经常需要在模糊概率的情境下进行决策,人们在对股票投资的过程中的频繁评价经常体会到股票投资的损失。为了从心理上平衡这种损失体验,只有在股票长期收益率足够大时才能与无风险投资等价。同时,这些研究结果可以给未来短视损失规避研究提供一些方向和借鉴,也可以指导我们现实生活中的投资决策。
Myopic loss aversion refers to a phenomena that the investor often change their decisions and reduce the risky investment when they evaluate their return frequently, which is an important concept in behavioral economics. Since it was put forward, researchers have been focusing on the evaluation period and investment horizon. The paper develops other direction and discusses the influential factors of myopic loss aversion, including task's probability and decision-makers' roles in known and unknown situation. Study 1 attempted to explore the effect of task's probability level and decision-makers' roles in known situation on myopic loss aversion by using 2 x 3 mixed design. The results show that:(1)There is myopic loss aversion in the medium loss probability task, which suggest that myopic loss aversion is a kind of common phenomenon.(2) individuals don't show the phenomenon of myopic loss aversion and were more rational when offered advice to friends. Study 2 attempted to explore the myopic loss aversion in the situation which the task's probability is ambiguity using 2 x 3 completely randomized experimental design. The results show that: individuals could exhibit myopic loss aversion in the high loss probability task and reverse myopic loss aversion in the low loss probability task in the situation which the task's probability was unknown. It suggests that the function of "short-sight" is more common in the situation that the probability is unknown. These results suggest that myopic loss aversion is a universal phenomenon in the daily life, and provide the explanation to the equity premium puzzle. Since the stock market is volatility and uncertainty, people often make decisions in the context of fuzzy probability and feel the loss when evaluate stock investment. To balance this loss experience, the stock long-term yields must be sufficiently large equivalent to risk-free investment. These results can not only provide some direction and reference for the future research of myopic loss aversion, but also guide our investment decisions in real life.
Myopic loss aversion refers to a phenomena that the investor often change their decisions and reduce the risky investment when they evaluate their return frequently, which is an important concept in behavioral economics. Since it was put forward, researchers have been focusing on the evaluation period and investment horizon. The paper develops other direction and discusses the influential factors of myopic loss aversion, including task's probability and decision-makers' roles in known and unknown situation. Study 1 attempted to explore the effect of task's probability level and decision-makers' roles in known situation on myopic loss aversion by using 2 x 3 mixed design. The results show that:(1)There is myopic loss aversion in the medium loss probability task, which suggest that myopic loss aversion is a kind of common phenomenon.(2) individuals don't show the phenomenon of myopic loss aversion and were more rational when offered advice to friends. Study 2 attempted to explore the myopic loss aversion in the situation which the task's probability is ambiguity using 2 x 3 completely randomized experimental design. The results show that: individuals could exhibit myopic loss aversion in the high loss probability task and reverse myopic loss aversion in the low loss probability task in the situation which the task's probability was unknown. It suggests that the function of "short-sight" is more common in the situation that the probability is unknown. These results suggest that myopic loss aversion is a universal phenomenon in the daily life, and provide the explanation to the equity premium puzzle. Since the stock market is volatility and uncertainty, people often make decisions in the context of fuzzy probability and feel the loss when evaluate stock investment. To balance this loss experience, the stock long-term yields must be sufficiently large equivalent to risk-free investment. These results can not only provide some direction and reference for the future research of myopic loss aversion, but also guide our investment decisions in real life.
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