灰色模型在预测隧道围岩变形中的应用

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• 英文论文题名：Application of Grey Model in Predicting Deformation of Tunnel Surrounding Rock
• 论文作者：刘小俊 ; 蒋雅君 ; 陶双江 ; 刘会钢 ; 李鹏
• 英文论文作者：LIU Xiaojun ; JIANG Yajun ; TAO Shuangjiang ; LIU Huigang ; LI Peng ; Key Laboratory of Transportation Tunnel Engineering ; Ministry of Education ; School of Civil Engineering Southwest Jiaotong University ; Sichuan Provincial Communications Department Highway Planning ; Survey ; Design & Research Institute
• 年：2016
• 作者机构：西南交通大学交通隧道工程教育部重点实验室土木工程学院;四川省交通运输厅公路规划勘察设计研究院;
• 论文关键词：Verhulst模型 ; GM(1 ; 1)模型 ; 隧道围岩 ; 变形预测
• 英文论文关键词：Verhuls model ; GM(1 ; 1) model ; Tunnel surrounding rock ; Deformation prediction
• 会议召开时间：2016-10-24
• 会议录名称：2016中国隧道与地下工程大会（CTUC）暨中国土木工程学会隧道及地下工程分会第十九届年会论文集
• 语种：中文
• 分类号：U451.2
• 学会代码：OGTY
• 会议名称：2016中国隧道与地下工程大会（CTUC）暨中国土木工程学会隧道及地下工程分会第十九届年会
• 会议地点：中国四川成都
• 主办单位：中国土木工程学会隧道及地下工程分会
• 学会名称：中国土木工程学会
• 页数：6
• 文件大小：1942k
• 原文格式：O
• 会议级别：全国

摘要

为了能够更加准确地预测围岩变形,文章采用了不同的灰色模型进行了研究。文章结合某公路隧道实例,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型、传统的灰色Verhulst模型及改进的灰色Verhulst模型对隧道拱顶沉降进行了预测,并与实测值进行对比。研究结果表明灰色GM(1,1)模型具有无限增长的特性,只适用于隧道变形的短期预测。Verhulst模型能反映隧道围岩变形的全过程,可预测隧道的最终变形量。改进的灰色Verhulst模型预测,具有更高的精度,对隧道稳定性评价和隧道施工有一定的指导意义。
In order to predict the deformation of surrounding rock more accurately,the paper used different grey models to study the deformation.In this paper,the gray GM(1,1) model,the grey Verhulst model and the improved gray Verhulst model were used to predict the vault crown settlement,and the analytic results were compared with the measured values.The results show that the gray GM(1,1) model has the characteristics of unlimited growth,which is only suitable for the short term prediction of tunnel deformation.Verhulst model can reflect the whole process of tunnel surrounding rock deformation,and it can predict the final deformation of tunnel.The improved grey Verhulst model has better accuracy,and has higher accuracy,and has certain directive significance to the tunnel stability evaluation and tunnel construction.

引文

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