国际形势乱象丛生,中国经济缓中趋稳

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• 英文论文题名：The international situation is chaotic,and China's economy begins to stabilize in slowdown
• 年：2017
• 会议召开时间：2017-01-08
• 会议录名称：清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心简报（总第58期）——清华大学中国与世界经济论坛（三十）：2017何以稳中求进
• 英文会议录名称：Proceedings of the 30th CCWE Macroeconomics Forum:2017-How to Seek Progress While Maintaining Stability
• 语种：中文
• 分类号：F124
• 学会代码：QDZG
• 会议名称：清华大学中国与世界经济论坛（三十） ; 2017何以稳中求进
• 会议地点：中国北京
• 主办单位：清华大学经济管理学院中国与世界经济研究中心
• 学会名称：清华大学经济管理学院中国与世界经济研究中心
• 页数：66
• 文件大小：18305k
• 原文格式：O
• 会议级别：全国

摘要

<正>中国经济:固定资产投资——2016基建贡献近半,2017增速缓慢回升房地产——增速回落,面临调整汇率与资本流动——贬值外流需警惕,多管齐下稳预期进出口——全球贸易格局有变,中国出口降中求稳价格指数——CPI保持温和上行,PPI上涨势头不变消费——汽车产销增速放缓,零售增长稳中略降去产能——去产能力度加大,"硬骨头"开始显现金融——银行坏账处置需加快,债市违约规模可控制

引文

1其他投资定义为:其他投资=固定资产投资-制造业投资-房地产投资-基建投资,以2016年1-11月的数据计算,制造业投资、房地产投资、基建投资和其他投资占固定资产投资的比重分别为31.6%、17.3%、19.7%和31.4%。
    2 CCWE利用商品房广义存销比反映商品房的库存状况与化解库存所需的时间。广义存销比是商品房的存量与一定时期内(通常指一个月)内销量的比值,计算公式如下:商品房广义存销比=(商品房待售面积+商品房在建面积)/平均每月商品房销售面积。其中,平均每月商品房销售面积用最近3个月销售面积的滑动平均值来计算;商品房在建面积包括住宅施工面积、办公楼施工面积和商业营业房施工面积等。
    3按照CCWE的测算方法,广义资本外流=外汇储备减少值+贸易顺差(包括商品和服务贸易)-汇率波动造成的外储贬值效应。其中,2016年1-11月,贸易顺差累计为2695亿美元,由于美元对其他货币汇率波动导致外汇储备估值减少量约为296亿美元
    4在将资本流出按资产持有主体划分时,我们做了如下相关假设:1.认为经常账户项下,隐藏在货物贸易中的资本流出为企业部门所主导,而隐藏在服务贸易中(主要为旅游)的资本流出为居民所主导;2.认为证券投资、直接投资所涉及的资本流出的执行主体为企业部门,理由是证券投资主要为金融机构借助QDII等渠道流出,而直接投资大多为国企及民营企业行为;3.在其他投资项中仅考虑境内存贷款,其中住户存贷款为居民部门主导,非金融企业存贷款为企业部门主导。
    5具体划分标准如下,工业类进口为:矿产品,机电、音像设备及其零件、附件,贱金属及其制品,塑料及其制品;橡胶及其制品,化学工业及其相关工业的产品,纺织原料及纺织制品,武器、弹药及其零件、附件。消费类进口为:珠宝、贵金属及制品;仿首饰;硬币;光学、医疗等仪器;钟表;乐器;植物产品;车辆、航空器、船舶及运输设备;生皮、皮革、毛皮及其制品;鞍具及挽具;旅行用品、手提包;动、植物油、脂、蜡;精制食用油脂;木浆等;废纸;纸、纸板及其制品;食品;饮料、酒及醋;烟草及制品;艺术品、收藏品及古物;鞋帽伞等;已加工的羽毛及其制品;人造花:人发制品;杂项制品;木及制品;木炭;软木;编结品;活动物;动物产品;石料、石膏、水泥、石棉、云母及类似材料的制品;陶瓷产品;玻璃及其制品。其他进口为:特殊交易品及未分类商品
    6 http://stock.jrj.com.cn/2016/12/27053621890399.shtml
    7购置房地产是印度最常见的洗钱途径之一。有报道称,“废钞令”已经对孟买等大城市的房地产交易量带来了负面影响。
    8 Other investment is defined as:other investment=fixed asset investment-manufacturing investment-real estate investmentinfrastructure investment,calculated by January-November 2016 data,manufacturing investment,real estate,infrastructure and other investments accounted for 31.6%,17.3%.19.7%and 31.4%of the total fixed asset investment,respectively.
    9 CCWE use broad stock-to-sales ratio to reflect the real estate inventory the situation and the time required for resolving inventory.The broad stock-to-sales ratio is the ratio of the stock of real estate and the sales over a certain time(usually one month),which is calculated by the following formula:the broad stock-to-sales ratio of real estate=(real estate for sale area+area under construction)/average monthly sales area.Where,the average monthly sales area of commercial housing is calculated by the moving average for the last 3 months;the area of commercial housing under construction includes construction area of residential house,office buildings and business operating house.
    10 According to the CCWE's measure,broad capital outflow=reduction in foreign exchange reserves+trade surplus(including trade in goods and services)-external reserve devaluation caused by fluctuation of exchange rate.Among them,from January to November 2016,the trade surplus accumulated to 269.5 billion US dollars,foreign exchange reserves reduced due to fluctuations in the US dollar against other currencies,amounting to approximately$29.6 billion.
    11 If the capital outflow is calculated by asset holders,we made the following assumptions:1.under current accounts,the capital outflow hidden in trade in goods was an intention of enterprise sector,while the capital outflow hidden in trade in service(mainly tourism)was an intention of residents.2.The capital outflow involved securities investment and direct investment was performed by the business sector on the grounds that securities investment mainly provided a QDII channel for capital outflow to financial institutions,while direct investment is mostly executed by state-owned enterprises or private enterprises;3.Only considering the domestic deposit for other investments,the residents'deposit is lead by residential sectors,non-financial enterprises'deposit and credit is dominated by enterprise sector.
    12 The specific criteria are as follows,industrial imports are:mineral products,electrical and mechanical,audio-visual equipment and parts,accessories,base metals and their products,plastics and their products;rubber and its products,the chemical industry and related industrial products,textile raw materials and textile products,weapons,ammunition and parts,accessories.Consumption imports:jewelry,noble metals and products,imitation ornament,coins,optical and medical devices,watches and clocks,musical instruments,plant products,vehicles,aircraft,ships and transport equipment,leather,fur and their products;saddler and harness,travel goods,handbags,animal and vegetable oils,fats and waxes,refined edible oils and fats,wood pulp,waste paper,paper,cardboard and products,food,beverage,wine and vinegar,tobacco and products;works of art,collectibles and antiquities;shoes and hats umbrella,processed feathers and their products,man-made flowers,human hair product,other miscellaneous products,wood and products,charcoal,softwood,knits,animal products,stone materials,gypsum,cement,asbestos,mica,and mica products,ceramic products,glass and its products.Other imports are:special trade goods and unclassified goods.
    7 Purchasing real estate is one of the most common ways of money laundering in India.There is report that"currency ban"has already inflicted negative impact on real estate transaction volumes in Mumbai and other large cities.