基于贝叶斯网络的北极通航可行性评估建模技术
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摘要
全球气候变暖的背景下,北极航道的开发和利用对传统航道形成了巨大的冲击。相比于传统航道,北极航道既存在航道距离短、海运成本低、地缘政治简单、海盗袭击风险低的优势,又面临着基础设施不完善、应急响应及救援能力差、生态环境脆弱等劣势。显然,北极通航的可行性分析是一个复杂的工程,具有大量的、动态的信息,会随着气候、市场及突发事件的影响而发生改变。本文采用贝叶斯网络,将客观定量模型与专家主观定性知识相结合,旨在比较北极航道与传统航道的综合效益,对北极通航可行性进行综合评估。以东北航道为例,本文首先建立了航道综合效益模型,以该模型中的各个变量作为贝叶斯网络的节点构建贝叶斯网络,将当前状态作为基准(中),把各个变量的取值划分为高、中、低3个状态,利用蒙特卡洛方法在模型中随机抽取若干样本代入网络中,通过EM算法获得各个节点间先验分布的条件概率表。其次,结合专家知识,对网络进行训练与更新。最后,采用该网络对未来可能情景进行了分析与讨论。
引文
[1]郭培清.北极航道的国际问题研究[M].北京:海洋出版社,2009.
[2]Young OR.The Age of the Arctic[J].Foreign Policy,1986,61;160-179.
[3]李娜.北极航道通航对我国航运业的影响研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2012.
[4]王丹,李振福,张燕.北极航道开通对我国航运业发展的影响[J].中国航海,2014,37(1):141-145.
[5]Winther M,Christensen J H,Plejdrup MS,et al.Emission inventories for ships in the arctic based on satellite sampled AIS data[J].Atmospheric Environment,2014,91(7):1-14.
[6]Nsr Information Office.Search and Rescue(Northern Sea Route Information Office)[EB/OL].http://www.arcticlio.com/nsr_searchandrescue
[7]Authors C L,Brigham L,Mccalla R,et al.Arctic marine shipping assessment 2009 report[R].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2009.
[8]Valsson T,Ulfarsson G F.Future changes in activity structures of the globe under a receding Arctic ice scenario[J].Futures,2011,43(4);450-459.
[9]戴晋.浅谈东北航道对我国航运业的影响[J].中国远洋航务,2010(4):70-71.
[10]Hong N.The melting Arctic and its impact on China's maritime transport[J].Research in Transportation Economics,2012,35(1):50-57.
[11]Stroeve J C,Kattsov V,Barrett A,et al.Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5,CMIP3 and observations[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2012,39(16):L1605.
[12]DNV.Shipping across the Arctic Ocean;A feasible option in 2030-2050 as a result of global warming[J].Ocean&Coastal Management,1998(41):175-207.
[13]Somanathan S,Flynn P,Szymanski J.The northwest passage;a simulation[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2009,43(2):127-135.
[14]Liu M,Kronbak J.The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route(NSR)as an alternative route between Asia and Europe[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2010,18(3):434-444.
[15]Way B,Khan F,Veitch B.The Northern Sea Route vs the Suez Canal Route;An Economic Analysis Incorporating Probabilistic Simulation Optimization of Vessel Speed[C]//ASME 2015 34th International Conference on Ocean,Offshore and Arctic Engineering.American Society of Mechanical Engineers,2015:V008T07A010-V008T07A010.
[16]杨理智,张韧,白成祖,等.基于贝叶斯网络的我国海上能源通道海盗袭击风险分析与实验评估[J].指挥控制与仿真,2014(2):51-57.
[17]Liu M,Kronbak J.The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route(NSR)as an alternative route between Asia and Europe[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2010,18(3):434-444.
[18]谢春林.航运特别战争险和绑架赎金险解析[J].水运管理,2010,32(5):1-3.
[19]史春林,李秀英.苏伊士运河与航运安全——兼论中国的通航对策[J].太平洋学报,2014(10):79-90.
[20]Consultants D S.Ship operating costs:annual review and forecast[M].Drewry:Drewry Shipping Consultana Ltd,2010.
[21]Smith T W P,Jalkanen J P,Anderson B A,et al.Third IMO GHG study 2014[OL].http://www.iadc.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/MEPC-67-6-INF3-2014-Final-Report-complete.pdf,2014.
[22]尹红鑫.船舶大型化对航运业碳排放影响研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2015.
(1)造船数据来源于英国克拉克松公司。
[2]Young OR.The Age of the Arctic[J].Foreign Policy,1986,61;160-179.
[3]李娜.北极航道通航对我国航运业的影响研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2012.
[4]王丹,李振福,张燕.北极航道开通对我国航运业发展的影响[J].中国航海,2014,37(1):141-145.
[5]Winther M,Christensen J H,Plejdrup MS,et al.Emission inventories for ships in the arctic based on satellite sampled AIS data[J].Atmospheric Environment,2014,91(7):1-14.
[6]Nsr Information Office.Search and Rescue(Northern Sea Route Information Office)[EB/OL].http://www.arcticlio.com/nsr_searchandrescue
[7]Authors C L,Brigham L,Mccalla R,et al.Arctic marine shipping assessment 2009 report[R].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2009.
[8]Valsson T,Ulfarsson G F.Future changes in activity structures of the globe under a receding Arctic ice scenario[J].Futures,2011,43(4);450-459.
[9]戴晋.浅谈东北航道对我国航运业的影响[J].中国远洋航务,2010(4):70-71.
[10]Hong N.The melting Arctic and its impact on China's maritime transport[J].Research in Transportation Economics,2012,35(1):50-57.
[11]Stroeve J C,Kattsov V,Barrett A,et al.Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5,CMIP3 and observations[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2012,39(16):L1605.
[12]DNV.Shipping across the Arctic Ocean;A feasible option in 2030-2050 as a result of global warming[J].Ocean&Coastal Management,1998(41):175-207.
[13]Somanathan S,Flynn P,Szymanski J.The northwest passage;a simulation[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2009,43(2):127-135.
[14]Liu M,Kronbak J.The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route(NSR)as an alternative route between Asia and Europe[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2010,18(3):434-444.
[15]Way B,Khan F,Veitch B.The Northern Sea Route vs the Suez Canal Route;An Economic Analysis Incorporating Probabilistic Simulation Optimization of Vessel Speed[C]//ASME 2015 34th International Conference on Ocean,Offshore and Arctic Engineering.American Society of Mechanical Engineers,2015:V008T07A010-V008T07A010.
[16]杨理智,张韧,白成祖,等.基于贝叶斯网络的我国海上能源通道海盗袭击风险分析与实验评估[J].指挥控制与仿真,2014(2):51-57.
[17]Liu M,Kronbak J.The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route(NSR)as an alternative route between Asia and Europe[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2010,18(3):434-444.
[18]谢春林.航运特别战争险和绑架赎金险解析[J].水运管理,2010,32(5):1-3.
[19]史春林,李秀英.苏伊士运河与航运安全——兼论中国的通航对策[J].太平洋学报,2014(10):79-90.
[20]Consultants D S.Ship operating costs:annual review and forecast[M].Drewry:Drewry Shipping Consultana Ltd,2010.
[21]Smith T W P,Jalkanen J P,Anderson B A,et al.Third IMO GHG study 2014[OL].http://www.iadc.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/MEPC-67-6-INF3-2014-Final-Report-complete.pdf,2014.
[22]尹红鑫.船舶大型化对航运业碳排放影响研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2015.
(1)造船数据来源于英国克拉克松公司。
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