基于多方博弈的快递专用电动三轮车限速策略研究
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- 英文论文题名：Studv on the Speed Limit Strategy of the Electric—Tricycle for Express Special Based on Multi-game Model
- 论文作者：曾敏刚 ; 林瀚 ; 林倩
- 英文论文作者：ZENG Min-gang ; LIN Han ; LIN Qian ; South China University of Technology ; School of Management Administration
- 年：2016
- 作者机构：华南理工大学工商管理学院;
- 论文关键词：快递专用电动三轮车 ; 限速 ; 多方博弈
- 英文论文关键词：electric-tricycle for express special ; speed-limit ; multi-game model
- 会议召开时间：2016-11-12
- 会议录名称：第十八届中国管理科学学术年会论文集
- 英文会议录名称：Proceedings of the 18th Chinese Annual Conference on Management Science
- 语种：中文
- 分类号：F259.2
- 学会代码：ZHYJ
- 会议名称：第十八届中国管理科学学术年会
- 会议地点：中国陕西西安
- 主办单位：中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会、西安交通大学、中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院、《中国管理科学》编辑部
- 学会名称：中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
- 页数：6
- 文件大小：664k
- 原文格式：O
- 会议级别：全国
摘要
通过对快递专用电动三轮车实际运营情况调研分析,快递专用电动三轮车的安全事故风险受到行驶速度、速度离散性等因素的综合影响,目前的限速政策无法平衡快递配送时效性和安全性之间的矛盾。基于多方博弈提出政府监管部门、快递企业和消费者的三方博弈模型,研究了快递专用电动三轮车限速条件下各博弈主体的参与策略,并针对政府的相关措施提出了建议。研究结果表明,在政府不监管的情况下,快递企业倾向于按照快递专用电动三轮车目前的行驶速度继续运营;而若政府进行监管,则快递企业需要衡量因配送效率降低而导致的人力资源成本增加和超速行驶可能导致的处罚之间的关系。对于消费者来说,无论政府是否监管,都倾向于选择配送速度快的快递企业。为了兼顾快递配送效率与安全,政府应当合理制定相关的法律法规,建立快递专用电动三轮车管理信息系统,实行准驾制度;快递企业应当改进快递员"按件计价"薪酬体系,并加强企业快递员管理和安全教育培训。
With the investigation of the literature at home and abroad,as well as the implementation state of electric-tricycle for express special,it is found that the safety level of the electric-tricycle is affected by many factors,such as speed,speed difference and so on,and the current speed limit policy can not balance the contradiction between the safety level and effectiveness.A multi-game model is developed to describe the relationship among government,express logistics enterprises and consumers and search the decision that each game player will choose.By using the example,it shows that express logistics enterprises will choose the high speed when the government does not supervise.Under the supervision,the strategy of express logistics enterprises depends on the relationship between penalty and human resource cost.For consumers,they choose the high-speed express logistics enterprises all the time.In order to approve the safety level under the premise of effectiveness,the government should formulate relevant laws and regulations,build Information Management System and issue driving license for electric-tricycle.The express logistics enterprises should also approve their salary system and strengthen safety training.
With the investigation of the literature at home and abroad,as well as the implementation state of electric-tricycle for express special,it is found that the safety level of the electric-tricycle is affected by many factors,such as speed,speed difference and so on,and the current speed limit policy can not balance the contradiction between the safety level and effectiveness.A multi-game model is developed to describe the relationship among government,express logistics enterprises and consumers and search the decision that each game player will choose.By using the example,it shows that express logistics enterprises will choose the high speed when the government does not supervise.Under the supervision,the strategy of express logistics enterprises depends on the relationship between penalty and human resource cost.For consumers,they choose the high-speed express logistics enterprises all the time.In order to approve the safety level under the premise of effectiveness,the government should formulate relevant laws and regulations,build Information Management System and issue driving license for electric-tricycle.The express logistics enterprises should also approve their salary system and strengthen safety training.
引文
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[14]王曼丽.城市道路电动自行车的交通安全特性分析[D].成都:西南交通大学,2010.
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[18]程波.基于交通冲突的电动自行车交通安全研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2014.
[19]王云,马国忠,唐国利.电动自行车对城市交通安全影响分析[J].交通标准化,2005(2):27-29.
[20]陈喆罕.电动自行车交通现状问题及对策研究-以昆明市为例[D].昆明:云南大学,2012.
[21]杨广红.中山市电动自行车管理规范化的研究[D].广州:华南理工大学,2013.
[2]林震,杨浩.基于车速的交通事故贝叶斯预测[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(2):34-36.
[3]Cirillo J A.Interstate system accident research studyⅡ,interim reportⅡ[J].Public Roads,1968,35(3):71-75.
[4]刘志强,王兆华,钱卫东.基于速度的交通事故分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2005,15(11):35-38.
[5]唐琤琤.限速、车速与安全[J].公路交通科技,2006,22(3):97-100.琤
[6]Evans L.Driver injury and fatality risk in two-car crashes versus mass ratio inferred using Newtonian mechanics[J].Accident Analysis&Prevention,1994,26(5):609-616.
[7]Jayadevan A S.Effect of speed limit increase on crash rate on rural two-lane highways in Louisiana[D]Louisiana,us:Louisiana State University,2006.
[8]McCarthy P.Effect of speed limits on speed distributions and highway safety:A survey of recent literature[J].Transport Review,2001,21(1):31-50.
[9]唐琤琤.限速、车速与安全[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(3):97-100.
[10]马国忠,明士军,吴海涛.电动自行车安全特性分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2006,16(4):48-52.
[11]赵桂范,刘明敏,刘磊,等.人-车-路系统下电动自行车安全性试验[J].中国公路学报,2014,27(2):105-111.
[12]董斌杰.电动助动车综合交通特性研究[D].上海:同济大学,2008.
[13]贾海亮.电动自行车交通特性研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2014.
[14]王曼丽.城市道路电动自行车的交通安全特性分析[D].成都:西南交通大学,2010.
[15]王小凤.电动自行车交通冲突分析与交通安全评价[D].昆明:昆明理工大学,2013.
[16]罗江凡.电动自行车交通安全相关问题及管理研究[D].西安:西安交通大学,2008.
[17]华星.关于电动自行车交通管理的研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2012.
[18]程波.基于交通冲突的电动自行车交通安全研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2014.
[19]王云,马国忠,唐国利.电动自行车对城市交通安全影响分析[J].交通标准化,2005(2):27-29.
[20]陈喆罕.电动自行车交通现状问题及对策研究-以昆明市为例[D].昆明:云南大学,2012.
[21]杨广红.中山市电动自行车管理规范化的研究[D].广州:华南理工大学,2013.