海平面上升情景下沿海地区发展脆弱性评价
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摘要
为了揭示海平面上升情景下中国沿海地区发展的脆弱性和地区之间的不平衡性,通过分析海平面上升对沿海地区资源环境和社会经济影响机理,定义了沿海发展脆弱性内涵,构建了沿海发展脆弱性评价指标体系,利用投影寻踪聚类模型实现对沿海地区发展脆弱性的综合评价.实证分析结果表明:上海市和广东省属于高脆弱,江苏省和山东省为较高脆弱地区,浙江省、天津市、海南省和辽宁省为中等脆弱,河北省、广西壮族自治区和福建省为低脆弱.最后,通过对沿海各地区脆弱性影响因子的分析,提出针对性的沿海地区发展建议:加强对海洋科技的投入和海洋生态环境的保护,提升海洋经济发展效率以及增强基础设施建设等工作对于提升沿海地区应对能力具有积极作用.
In order to reveal the fragility of Chinese coastal areas and the imbalance among regions in the sea level rise scenario,the vulnerability of coastal development has been defined by analysing the impacting mechanism of sea level rise on the resources,environment,socio-economic of coastal areas,a vulnerability assessment index system of coastal development has been constructed,and the projection pursuit clustering model had been used to achieve the comprehensive assessment on the vulnerability of coastal development. The empirical analysis shows that,Shanghai and Guangdong provinces have the highest level of vulnerability,Jiangsu and Shandong provinces have higher level of vulnerability,Zhejiang,Tianjin,Hainan and Liaoning provinces are moderately vulnerable,and the vulnerability of Hebei Province,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Fujian Province is low fragile.Through the analysis of the impact factor of the vulnerability of coastal development,pertinent suggestions for coastal development were proposed: strengthening the investment in marine science and technology and the protection of the marine ecological environment,improving the efficiency of marine economic development,and strengthening infrastructure construction have a positive effect on improving the response capacity of coastal areas.
In order to reveal the fragility of Chinese coastal areas and the imbalance among regions in the sea level rise scenario,the vulnerability of coastal development has been defined by analysing the impacting mechanism of sea level rise on the resources,environment,socio-economic of coastal areas,a vulnerability assessment index system of coastal development has been constructed,and the projection pursuit clustering model had been used to achieve the comprehensive assessment on the vulnerability of coastal development. The empirical analysis shows that,Shanghai and Guangdong provinces have the highest level of vulnerability,Jiangsu and Shandong provinces have higher level of vulnerability,Zhejiang,Tianjin,Hainan and Liaoning provinces are moderately vulnerable,and the vulnerability of Hebei Province,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Fujian Province is low fragile.Through the analysis of the impact factor of the vulnerability of coastal development,pertinent suggestions for coastal development were proposed: strengthening the investment in marine science and technology and the protection of the marine ecological environment,improving the efficiency of marine economic development,and strengthening infrastructure construction have a positive effect on improving the response capacity of coastal areas.
引文
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[2]刘克修,袁文亚,骆敬新,等.海平面上升:悄然发生的海洋灾害[J].海洋信息,2012(3):31-39.
[3]石先武,国志兴,张尧,等.风暴潮灾害脆弱性研究综述[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(7):889-897.
[4]刘洋.全球气候变化对长三角河口海岸地区社会经济影响研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2014.
[5]谢守红,周驾易.中国县级市社会发展水平评价及空间差异分析[J].人口与发展,2014,20(2):17-22.
[6]闫白洋.海平面上升叠加风暴潮影响下上海市社会经济脆弱性评价[D].上海:华东师范大学,2016.
[7]郑雪梅,王怡,吴小影,等.近20年福建省沿海与内陆城市高温热浪脆弱性比较[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(10):1197-1205.
[8]刘佳,周长晓,韩欢乐.旅游经济系统脆弱性测度及其时空演化特征:以山东省沿海地区为例[J].经济与管理评论,2015,31(3):139-147.
[9]李博,杨智,苏飞.基于集对分析的大连市人海经济系统脆弱性测度[J].地理研究,2015,34(5):967-976.
[10]彭飞,韩增林,杨俊,等.基于BP神经网络的中国沿海地区海洋经济系统脆弱性时空分异研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(12):2441-2450.
[11]方佳毅,陈文方,孔锋,等.中国沿海地区社会脆弱性评价[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(3):280-286.
[12]石勇,许世远,石纯,等.沿海区域水灾脆弱性及风险的的初步分析[J].地理科学,2009,29(6):853-857.
[13] WANG L,HUANG G,ZHOU W,et al. Historical change and future scenarios of sea level rise in Macau and adjacent waters[J]. Advances In Atmospheric Sciences,2016,33(4):462-475.
[14]白至东,郑术蓉,姜丹丹.大维统计分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2012:343-384.
[15] JEROME H F,JOHN W T. A projection pursuit algorithm for exploratory data analysis[J]. IEEE Transaction on Computers,1974,C-23(9):881-890.
[16]楼文高,熊聘,冯国珍,等.影响投影寻踪聚类建模的关键因素分析与实证研究[J].数理统计与管理,2017,36(5):783-801.
[17]陈理国,蔡之华.改进的正交遗传算法及其在函数优化中的应用[J].计算机工程与设计,2008(13):3413-3415+3418.
[18]易平涛,李伟伟,郭亚军.线性无量纲化方法的结构稳定性分析[J].系统管理学报,2014,23(1):104-110.