1951—2015年北京极端降水变化研究
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摘要
为了掌握北京极端降水事件的气候变化规律,基于1951—2015年北京日降水数据,利用线性趋势分析、主成分分析、相关分析、突变检测以及R/S分析等方法,对北京地区极端降水变化趋势进行研究。结果表明:1951—2015年北京持续湿期、暴雨日数、强降水量、1日最大降水量、降水强度、湿日降水量呈显著下降趋势。北京暴雨日数、强降水量、1日最大降水量、降水强度、湿日降水量具有相似的年代际变化,均在1950s偏强,在1960s—1990s呈波动减少趋势,2000s均显著减少减弱。突变检测结果表明,北京1日最大降水量和降水强度分别于1968和1988年发生由强到弱的突变。除持续干期指数之外的其他极端降水指数之间存在显著的正相关,极端降水量指数、各等级降水日数、持续降水时间是导致北京极端降水变化的主导因子。R/S分析表明,北京极端降水指数未来具有减小减弱的趋势。北京极端降水未来呈减少趋势将增大干旱灾害的风险,严重影响水资源供给,因此应加强调节控制,以保障北京社会经济尤其是农业的可持续发展。
The paper aims to master the climate change laws of extreme precipitation events in Beijing. Byadopting methods of linear regression, principal component analysis, correlation analysis, Mann-Kendallmutation test and R/S analysis, the authors studied the variation trends of extreme precipitation events inBeijing based on daily precipitation data during 1951-2015. The results showed that: extreme precipitationindices of CWD, R25 mm, R95 p, RX1 day, SDII and PRCPTOT showed a significant decreasing trend; extremeprecipitation indices of R25 mm, R95 p, RX1 day, SDII and PRCPTOT showed similar interdecadal variation,the indices were all strong in the 1950 s and basically showed a sustained decreasing tendency of fluctuationduring 1960 s-1990 s and the indices were significantly reduced and weakened in the 2000 s; the extremeprecipitation indices of RX1 day and SDII had mutation from strong to weak in 1968 and 1988, respectively; theextreme precipitation indices had significant positive correlations among them except for the CDD; thevariables of extreme precipitation(RX1 day, R99 p, RX5 day and R95 p), the variables of precipitation days atdifferent levels(R25 mm, R20 mm and R10 mm) and the variables of precipitation duration(CDD and CWD)were the main factors resulting in the change of extreme precipitation events in Beijing; R/S analysis of extremeprecipitation indices indicated that extreme precipitation events would reduce and keep a weakening trend in future in Beijing and the change of extreme precipitation events had a direct impact on the change of regionalwater resources. The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will be further intensified inthe future and will increase the risk of drought disaster, so the integrated water management must bestrengthened accordingly to ensure the sustainable development of Beijing's social economy, especiallyagriculture.
The paper aims to master the climate change laws of extreme precipitation events in Beijing. Byadopting methods of linear regression, principal component analysis, correlation analysis, Mann-Kendallmutation test and R/S analysis, the authors studied the variation trends of extreme precipitation events inBeijing based on daily precipitation data during 1951-2015. The results showed that: extreme precipitationindices of CWD, R25 mm, R95 p, RX1 day, SDII and PRCPTOT showed a significant decreasing trend; extremeprecipitation indices of R25 mm, R95 p, RX1 day, SDII and PRCPTOT showed similar interdecadal variation,the indices were all strong in the 1950 s and basically showed a sustained decreasing tendency of fluctuationduring 1960 s-1990 s and the indices were significantly reduced and weakened in the 2000 s; the extremeprecipitation indices of RX1 day and SDII had mutation from strong to weak in 1968 and 1988, respectively; theextreme precipitation indices had significant positive correlations among them except for the CDD; thevariables of extreme precipitation(RX1 day, R99 p, RX5 day and R95 p), the variables of precipitation days atdifferent levels(R25 mm, R20 mm and R10 mm) and the variables of precipitation duration(CDD and CWD)were the main factors resulting in the change of extreme precipitation events in Beijing; R/S analysis of extremeprecipitation indices indicated that extreme precipitation events would reduce and keep a weakening trend in future in Beijing and the change of extreme precipitation events had a direct impact on the change of regionalwater resources. The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will be further intensified inthe future and will increase the risk of drought disaster, so the integrated water management must bestrengthened accordingly to ensure the sustainable development of Beijing's social economy, especiallyagriculture.
引文
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[4]郁珍艳,李正泉,高大伟,等.定量评估极端天气影响农业总产值的方法[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(2):147-153.
[5]黄德林,李喜明,鞠劭芃.气候变化对中国粮食生产、消费及经济增长的影响研究--基于中国农业一般均衡模型[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(20):165-176.
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[8]张红英,李晶晶,段娟,等.气候变暖背景下长治市极端降水变化趋势[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(32):137-143.
[9]张核真,尼玛吉,多吉次仁.近50年西藏最长连续无降水日数变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(35):151-154.
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[11]高涛,谢立安.近50年来中国极端降水趋势与物理成因研究综述[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(5):577-589.
[12]杨金虎,江志红,王鹏祥,等.中国年极端降水事件的时空分布特征[J].气候与环境研究,2008,13(1):75-83.
[13]邹用昌,杨修群,孙旭光,等.我国极端降水过程频数时空变化的季节差异[J].南京大学学报:自然科学版,2009,45(1):98-109.
[14]闵屾,钱永甫.我国近40年各类降水事件的变化趋势[J].中山大学学报:自然科学版,2008,47(3):105-111.
[15]任国玉,任玉玉,战云健,等.中国降水时空变异规律--II现代变化趋势[J].水科学进展,2015,26(4):1-17.
[16]任正果,张明军,王圣杰,等.1961-2011年中国南方地区极端降水事件变化[J].地理学报,2014,69(5):640-649.
[17]武文博,游庆龙,王岱.基于均一化降水资料的中国极端降水特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(6):1015-1026.
[18]Chen HP,Sun JQ.Changes in climate extreme events in China associated with warming[J].International Journal of Climatology,2015,35(10):2735-2751.
[19]Chi Xx,Yin Ze,Wang X,et al.Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation extremes of China during the past 50 years(1960-2009)[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2016,124(3/4):555-564.
[20]陈海山,范苏丹,张新华.中国近50a极端降水事件变化特征的季节性差异[J].大气科学学报,2009,32(6):744-751.
[21]冯晓莉,刘彩红,祁栋林.青海省汛期极端强降水特征及影响[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(5):125-130.
[22]杨江红,吴海婷,郭翠荣,等.临汾市极端气候事件的分析与研究[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(26):246-249.
[23]吉奇,赵雷,高巍,等.本溪山区极端降水指数的变化特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(8):169-173.
[24]陈金明,陆桂华,吴志勇,等.1960-2009年中国夏季极端降水事件与气温的变化及其环流特征[J].高原气象,2016,35(3):675-684.
[25]王志福,钱永甫.中国极端降水事件的频数和强度特征[J].水科学进展,2009,20(1):1-9.
[26]安华,延军平,张涛涛,等.增暖背景下华北平原极端降水事件时空变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2013,33(3):144-148.
[27]曹祥会,龙怀玉,张继宗,等.河北省主要极端气候指数的时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(3):245-253.
[28]郝立生,闵锦忠,丁一汇.华北地区降水事件变化和暴雨事件减少原因分析[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(5):1160-1167.
[29]张瑞麟.北京市降水年内分配特征量化研究[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(12):9-13.
[30]谌芸,孙军,徐珺,等.北京721特大暴雨极端性分析及思考(一):观测分析及思考[J].气象,2012,38(10):1255-1266.
[31]孙建华,赵思雄,傅慎明,等.2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨的多尺度特征[J].大气科学,2013,37(3):705-718.
[32]孙继松,雷蕾,于波,等.近10年北京地区极端暴雨事件的基本特征[J].气象学报,2015,73(4):609-623.
[33]Karl TR,Nicholls N,Ghazi A.CLIVAR/GCOS/WMO Workshop on Indices and Indicators for Climate Extremes Workshop Summary[A].Karl TR,Nicholls N,Ghazi A,editors.Weather and Climate Extremes:Changes,Variations and a Perspective from the Insurance Industry[M].Springer Netherlands:Dordrecht,1999:3-7.
[34]杨溯,李庆祥.中国降水量序列均一性分析方法及数据集更新完善[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(4):276-281.
[35]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:18-19,37-40,63-65.
[36]Wand MP,Jones MC.Kernel Smoothing[M].London:Chapman and Hall,1995.
[37](美)Johnson RA,Wichern DW,陆璇,等.实用多元统计分析(第6版)[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2008:334-373.
[38]Weron R.Estimating long-range dependence:finite sample properties and confidence intervals[J].Physica a-Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications,2002,312(1/2):285-299.
[39]Chinchorkar SS,Sayyad FG,Vaidya VB,et al.Trend detection in annual maximum temperature and precipitation using the Mann Kendall test-A case study to assess climate change on Anand of central Gujarat[J].Mausam,2015,66(1):1-6.
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