黑龙江省主汛期异常降水变化及其与洪涝的关系研究
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摘要
利用黑龙江省80个气象站1971-2016年6-8月逐日降水资料,参考国家标准规定大雨、暴雨为异常降水,采用数理统计方法,分析了黑龙江省主汛期内(6-8月)异常降水的变化特征,并构建了异常降水量与洪涝面积的相关关系。结果表明:1971-2016年间,研究区主汛期内异常降水在时间上呈现非连续性发生特征,空间上呈现分散性特征,上述特征在相同时间内暴雨较大雨更为突出,不同时间内6月最显著,而7月异常降水相对集中;研究期间,研究区各站主汛期内异常降水量呈大幅度波动变化,年际间振幅大,相同时间内暴雨事件降水量震荡更强,不同时间内大雨事件主汛期降水量变化最剧烈、暴雨事件7月降水量变化最剧烈。异常降水量在空间分布上存在差异,高值区主要分布在松嫩平原,松嫩平原为异常降水多发区域;1971-2016年间,研究区6月异常降水与洪涝相关不显著,主汛期、7月和8月大雨或暴雨事件的降水量均与洪涝面积具有极显著的正相关关系(P<0.01),表明异常降水对洪涝面积为正效应影响作用,其中主汛期大雨对洪涝影响最显著,7月大雨、暴雨影响均较显著。
Based on daily precipitation data from 80 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from June to August during 1971 to 2016, according to the national standards, heavy rain and rainstorm are defined as abnormal rainfall. Change characteristics of the abnormal rainfall during main flood season(from June to August) of Heilongjiang province is investigated by using the mathematical statistics methods, and then we analyze a correlation between abnormal precipitation and flood areas. The results showed that the temporal occurrence of abnormal rainfall events is discontinuous and it's discrete during main flood season in the research area. Such characteristics of rainstorm are more prominent than characteristics of heavy rain in the same period, and such characteristics of abnormal rainfall in June are most significant in the different period, while abnormal rainfall is relatively intensive in July. During 1971 to 2016, the abnormal precipitation changed greatly during main flood season of each station in the research area, oscillate of inter-annual precipitation is intense and its change range is large. Oscillate of rainstorm precipitation is more intense than oscillate of heavy rain in the same period, and in the different period, heavy rain precipitation changed most dramatically in main flood season and rainstorm precipitation changed most dramatically in July. There were differences in spatial distribution of abnormal precipitation, the regions of most precipitation are located on the Songnen plain, which are the regions of occurrence of abnormal rainfall easily. The correlation between abnormal rainfall and flood area is not significant in June in the research area, but the correlation between abnormal rainfall and flood area is most significant in July, August, and main flood season in the study area, which showed that the abnormal precipitation is favorable to flood area. Heavy rain events had the most significant impact on flood in the main flood season, and the influence of heavy rain and rainstorm on flood in July is more significant.
Based on daily precipitation data from 80 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from June to August during 1971 to 2016, according to the national standards, heavy rain and rainstorm are defined as abnormal rainfall. Change characteristics of the abnormal rainfall during main flood season(from June to August) of Heilongjiang province is investigated by using the mathematical statistics methods, and then we analyze a correlation between abnormal precipitation and flood areas. The results showed that the temporal occurrence of abnormal rainfall events is discontinuous and it's discrete during main flood season in the research area. Such characteristics of rainstorm are more prominent than characteristics of heavy rain in the same period, and such characteristics of abnormal rainfall in June are most significant in the different period, while abnormal rainfall is relatively intensive in July. During 1971 to 2016, the abnormal precipitation changed greatly during main flood season of each station in the research area, oscillate of inter-annual precipitation is intense and its change range is large. Oscillate of rainstorm precipitation is more intense than oscillate of heavy rain in the same period, and in the different period, heavy rain precipitation changed most dramatically in main flood season and rainstorm precipitation changed most dramatically in July. There were differences in spatial distribution of abnormal precipitation, the regions of most precipitation are located on the Songnen plain, which are the regions of occurrence of abnormal rainfall easily. The correlation between abnormal rainfall and flood area is not significant in June in the research area, but the correlation between abnormal rainfall and flood area is most significant in July, August, and main flood season in the study area, which showed that the abnormal precipitation is favorable to flood area. Heavy rain events had the most significant impact on flood in the main flood season, and the influence of heavy rain and rainstorm on flood in July is more significant.
引文
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[14] Timothy J Osborn, Mike Hulme, Philip D Jones, et al. Observed trends in the daily intensity of United Kingdom precipitation[J]. International Journal of Climatology. 2000, 20:347-364.
[15] 杨晓静,徐宗学,左德鹏,等.云南省1958-2013年极端降水时空变化特征分析[J].灾害学,2015,30(4):178-186.
[16] 柯丹,管兆勇.华中地区夏季区域性极端日降水事件变化特征及环流异常[J].气象学报,2014,72(3):478-493.
[17] 马晓刚,李凝,张旭,等.阜新夏季异常降水在太阳活动周期的规律研究[J].灾害学,2017,32(3):107-111.
[18] 白美兰,郝润全,高建峰,等.内蒙古地区极端气候事件分布特征及对农业影响评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(2):21-27.
[19] 陈丹,周长艳,熊光明,等. 近53年四川盆地夏季暴雨变化特征分析[J].高原气象,2018,37(1):197-206.
[20] 王艳姣,周兵,司东,等.2012年夏季我国降水异常及成因分析[J].气象,2013,39(1):118-122.
[21] 杨金虎,李耀辉,王鹏祥,等.中国极端强降水事件年内非均匀性特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(4):623-633.
[22] 周自江,宋连春,李小泉.1998 年长江流域特大洪水的降水分析[J].应用气象学报, 2000,11(3):287-296.
[23] 毕宝贵,矫梅燕,廖要明,等.2003 年淮河流域大洪水的雨情、水情特征分析[J].应用气象学报,2004,15(6):681-687.
[24] 贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.1961—2005 年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):519-531.
[25] 乔林,李延香,符娇兰,等. 降水量等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2012:1-2.
[2] 张录军,钱永甫.长江流域汛期降水集中程度和洪涝关系研究[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(4):622-630.
[3] 周瑾,祖世亨.“98”嫩江特大洪涝对大庆市粮食产量的影响[J].黑龙江气象,1999(4):34-37.
[4] 姜丽霞,陈可心,刘丹,等.2013年黑龙江省主汛期降水异常特征及其对作物产量影响的分析[J].气象,2015,41(1):105-112.
[5] 孔锋,史培军,方建,等.全球变化背景下极端降水时空格局变化及其影响因素研究进展和展望[J].灾害学,2017,32(2):165-174.
[6] 丁一汇, 任国玉, 石广玉, 等. 气候变化国家评估报告(I):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2(1):3-8.
[7] 黄荣辉, 刘永, 冯涛.20世纪90年代末中国东部夏季降水和环流的年代际变化特征及其内动力成因[J]. 科学通报,2013,58:617-628.
[8] 孔锋,王一飞,吕丽莉,等.近百年来全球、大洲和区域尺度降雨时空变化诊断(1900-2010)[J].灾害学,2018,33(1):81-88,95.
[9] 陈东辉,汪结华,宁贵财,等.北京市极端降水事件和应对策略分析[J].灾害学,2016,31(2):182-187.
[10] 翟颖佳,李耀辉,施春华.近50年华北区8月降水异常的时空特征及其成因分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(3):787-797.
[11] Madsen H, Lawrence D, LANG M, et al. Review of trend analysis and climate change projections of extreme precipitation and floods in Europe[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2014, 519:3634-3650.
[12] Buffoni L,M Maugeri,T Nanni. Precipitation in Italy from 1833 to 1996[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 1999,63:33-40,417-425.
[13] Pavel Ya. Groisman,Thomas R. Karl, David R. Easterling, et al. Changes in the probability of heavy precipitation: Important indicators of climatic change[J]. Climatic Change, 1999, 42(1):243-283.
[14] Timothy J Osborn, Mike Hulme, Philip D Jones, et al. Observed trends in the daily intensity of United Kingdom precipitation[J]. International Journal of Climatology. 2000, 20:347-364.
[15] 杨晓静,徐宗学,左德鹏,等.云南省1958-2013年极端降水时空变化特征分析[J].灾害学,2015,30(4):178-186.
[16] 柯丹,管兆勇.华中地区夏季区域性极端日降水事件变化特征及环流异常[J].气象学报,2014,72(3):478-493.
[17] 马晓刚,李凝,张旭,等.阜新夏季异常降水在太阳活动周期的规律研究[J].灾害学,2017,32(3):107-111.
[18] 白美兰,郝润全,高建峰,等.内蒙古地区极端气候事件分布特征及对农业影响评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(2):21-27.
[19] 陈丹,周长艳,熊光明,等. 近53年四川盆地夏季暴雨变化特征分析[J].高原气象,2018,37(1):197-206.
[20] 王艳姣,周兵,司东,等.2012年夏季我国降水异常及成因分析[J].气象,2013,39(1):118-122.
[21] 杨金虎,李耀辉,王鹏祥,等.中国极端强降水事件年内非均匀性特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(4):623-633.
[22] 周自江,宋连春,李小泉.1998 年长江流域特大洪水的降水分析[J].应用气象学报, 2000,11(3):287-296.
[23] 毕宝贵,矫梅燕,廖要明,等.2003 年淮河流域大洪水的雨情、水情特征分析[J].应用气象学报,2004,15(6):681-687.
[24] 贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.1961—2005 年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):519-531.
[25] 乔林,李延香,符娇兰,等. 降水量等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2012:1-2.
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