ECMWF集合预报在安徽大别山区降水预报中的检验
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摘要
利用2015年6月1日至8月31日ECMWF集合预报系统(EPS)51个成员的降水预报结果,基于安徽省大别山区12个代表站点1～3 d的逐12 h降水观测资料,采用TS评分、箱须图、泰勒图等方法,研究ECMWF集合预报降水结果在安徽省大别山区降水分级预报中的应用效果。主要结论如下:ECMWF集合降水预报中,08时起报的24 h降水量和20时起报的48 h降水量可参考性较大;降水分级检验中,晴雨预报正确率在70%以上,小雨和中雨的空报率较高,对大雨以上量级的预报能力相对较差;大型降水过程中,暴雨以上量级的预报需关注不同预报时效下降水量预报的变化趋势,个别成员对极端降水的表现也值得关注。
Using the precipitation forecast data of 51 members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System(EPS) from June 1 to August 31,2015, TS skill score, boxplot and Taylor diagram method are used to research the application effect of precipitation forecast by ECMWF ensemble prediction in the Ta-pieh Mountains area of Anhui Province based on the 1-3 days 12 h precipitation observation data of 12 representative sites in the Ta-pieh Mountains area. The main results are as follows. For the precipitation of ECMWF, the 24 h projected precipitation from 08:00 and the 48 h projected precipitation from 20:00 can be used for reference. In the precipitation classification test, the accuracy of rainfall forecast is more than 70%. There are high miss forecasts for light and moderate rain. The forecast ability of the magnitude of heavy rain is relatively poor. During the large-scale precipitation events, the trend of the forecast precipitation in different forecast times should be paid attention when forecasting the magnitude of precipitation above the heavy rain. Meanwhile, the performance of the individual members for extreme precipitation should be worthy of attention.
Using the precipitation forecast data of 51 members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System(EPS) from June 1 to August 31,2015, TS skill score, boxplot and Taylor diagram method are used to research the application effect of precipitation forecast by ECMWF ensemble prediction in the Ta-pieh Mountains area of Anhui Province based on the 1-3 days 12 h precipitation observation data of 12 representative sites in the Ta-pieh Mountains area. The main results are as follows. For the precipitation of ECMWF, the 24 h projected precipitation from 08:00 and the 48 h projected precipitation from 20:00 can be used for reference. In the precipitation classification test, the accuracy of rainfall forecast is more than 70%. There are high miss forecasts for light and moderate rain. The forecast ability of the magnitude of heavy rain is relatively poor. During the large-scale precipitation events, the trend of the forecast precipitation in different forecast times should be paid attention when forecasting the magnitude of precipitation above the heavy rain. Meanwhile, the performance of the individual members for extreme precipitation should be worthy of attention.
引文
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[15]苗春生,刘维鑫,王坚红,等.梅雨期经大别山两侧暴雨中尺度低涡对比分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(2):394-406
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[17]赵琳娜,吴昊,田付友,等.基于TIGGE资料的流域概率性降水预报评估[J].气象, 2010, 36(7):133-142
[18]潘留杰,薛春芳,张宏芳,等.两个集合预报系统对秦岭及周边降水预报性能对比[J].应用气象学报, 2016, 27(6):676-687
[2]周迪,陈静,陈朝平,等.暴雨集合预报-观测概率匹配订正法在四川盆地的应用研究[J].暴雨灾害,2015,34(2):97-104
[3]宗志平,代刊,蒋星.定量降水预报技术研究进展[J].气象科技进展,2012,2(5):29-35
[4]潘留杰,张宏芳,陈小婷,等. ECMWF集合预报在中国中部地区的降水概率预报性能评估[J].高原气象, 2017, 36(1):138-147
[5] Buizza R, Houtekamer P L, Pellerin G, et al. A Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction Systems[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2005, 133(5):347-357
[6]张宏芳,潘留杰,杨新. ECMWF、日本高分辨率模式降水预报能力的对比分析[J].气象,2014,40(04):424-432.
[7]陈博宇,代刊,郭云谦. 2013年汛期ECMWF集合统计量产品的降水预报检验与分析[J].暴雨灾害, 2015, 34(1):64-73
[8]周迪,陈静,陈朝平,等.暴雨集合预报-观测概率匹配订正法在四川盆地的应用研究[J].暴雨灾害, 2015, 34(2):97-104
[9]吴志鹏,陈静,张涵斌,等.基于集合预报的持续性强降水可预报性评估方法研究[J].暴雨灾害, 2014, 33(2):97-105
[10]张华龙,吴乃庚,唐思瑜,等.广东省ECMWF降水集合预报统计量的检验与分析[J].广东气象,2017,39(2):1-6
[11]李俊,廖移山,张兵,等.集合数值预报方法在山洪预报中的初步应用[J].高原气象,2007,26(4):854-861
[12]周昆,陈兴超,王东勇,徐焕.2014年淮河流域一次飑线过程的结构及环境分析[J].暴雨灾害,2016,35(01):69-75
[13]李子良.地形降水试验和背风回流降水机制[J].气象,2006,32(5):10-15
[14]赵玉春,徐小峰,崔春光.中尺度地形对梅雨锋暴雨影响的个例研究[J].高原气象,2012,31(5):1 268-1 282
[15]苗春生,刘维鑫,王坚红,等.梅雨期经大别山两侧暴雨中尺度低涡对比分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(2):394-406
[16]周昆,郝元甲,姚晨,邱学兴.6种数值模式在安徽区域天气预报中的检验[J].气象科学,2010,30(06):801-805
[17]赵琳娜,吴昊,田付友,等.基于TIGGE资料的流域概率性降水预报评估[J].气象, 2010, 36(7):133-142
[18]潘留杰,薛春芳,张宏芳,等.两个集合预报系统对秦岭及周边降水预报性能对比[J].应用气象学报, 2016, 27(6):676-687