杨楼流域降水变化特征及CMIP5气候模式评估
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摘要
利用杨楼流域9个站点的逐日降水资料,分析历史时段(1981—2010年)降水时空变化特征,基于多目标函数的秩评分方法,评估全球耦合模式第五阶段(CMIP5)的23个气候模式对流域降水的模拟能力,并利用优选出的气候模式对未来降水进行预估。结果表明:杨楼流域历史时段降水整体呈微弱上升趋势,增量为39.4 mm/10a;CMIP5气候模式模拟降水量普遍偏高,模拟能力较优的模式是ACCESS1.0,Had GEM2-AO及CNRM-CM5;流域未来时段降水年际波动较平缓,年内分配更为不均,集中于汛期。
This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation in history using daily precipitation data of the Yanglou River basin, and evaluates the simulation of 23 General Circulation Models( GCMs) from CMIP5 on precipitation for this river basin based on multiple objective function of ranking score method, and predictes the future precipitation from the selected GCMs. Results show that the historical precipitation in the study area has a slightly increasing trend, and the trend is 39. 4 mm/10 a. The GCMs from CMIP5 overestimates the precipitation in general. The best GCMs are ACCESS 1. 0, Had GEM2-AO and CNRM-CM5. The precipitation in the future will have less obviously change, but the distribution within the year will be more uneven, and the precipitation will mainly focus on the rainy season.
This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation in history using daily precipitation data of the Yanglou River basin, and evaluates the simulation of 23 General Circulation Models( GCMs) from CMIP5 on precipitation for this river basin based on multiple objective function of ranking score method, and predictes the future precipitation from the selected GCMs. Results show that the historical precipitation in the study area has a slightly increasing trend, and the trend is 39. 4 mm/10 a. The GCMs from CMIP5 overestimates the precipitation in general. The best GCMs are ACCESS 1. 0, Had GEM2-AO and CNRM-CM5. The precipitation in the future will have less obviously change, but the distribution within the year will be more uneven, and the precipitation will mainly focus on the rainy season.
引文
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[11]刘兆飞,王蕊,姚治君.蒙古高原气温与降水变化特征及CMIP5气候模式评估[J].资源科学,2016,38(5):956-969.
[2]李秀萍,徐宗学,程华琼.多模式集合预估21世纪淮河流域气候变化情景[J].高原气象,2012,31(6):1622-1635.
[3]俞芬,千怀遂,段海来.淮河流域水稻的气候适宜度及其变化趋势分析[J].地理科学,2008,28(4):537-542.
[4]程晓陶,王静,夏军,等.气候变化对淮河防洪与排涝管理项目的影响及适应对策研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(6):10-15.
[5]FLERCHINGER G N,XAIO W,MARKS D,et al.Comparison of algorithms for incoming atmospheric long-wave radiation.[J].Water Resources Research,2009(45):450-455.
[6]SEO K H,OK J.Assessing Future Changes in the East Asian Summer Monsoon Using CMIP3 Models:Results from the Best Model Ensemble[J].Journal of Climate,2013,26(19):7662-7675.
[7]MANN H B.Nonparametric test against trend[J].Econometrica,1945,13(3):245-259.
[8]KAHYA E,KALAYC S.Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey[J].Journal of Hydrology,2004,289(1–4):128-144.
[9]KNUTSON T R,DELWORTH T L,DIXON K W,et al.Model assessment of regional surface temperature trends(1949–1997)[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,1999,104(D24):30981-30996.
[10]HAY L E,WILBY R L,LEAVESLEY G H.A Comparison of Delta Change and Downscaled GCM Scenarios for Three Mountaidous Basins in the UNITED STATES[J].Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2000,36(2):387-397.
[11]刘兆飞,王蕊,姚治君.蒙古高原气温与降水变化特征及CMIP5气候模式评估[J].资源科学,2016,38(5):956-969.