工业开采诱发地震(二):监测技术和危险性研究
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摘要
随着页岩气和地热等能源开采过程中可能诱发地震并造成灾害等问题的关注度的提高,及时总结分析国际上已经实施开展的针对可能的诱发地震的监测、危险性分析、风险评价和风险管理工作,对有针对性地预防和减轻此类地震灾害、实现有效的社会治理等均具有重要意义。本文重点对国际上公开发表的学术出版物进行了调研,对目前已有的针对可能的诱发地震的监测系统建设、地震危险性分析和风险评价、风险管理等方面的研究和工作进行了归纳,以期为诱发地震减灾工作提供参考。
With the increasing attention of earthquakes and disasters caused by energy exploitation such as shale gas and geothermal energy, timely analysis of possible induced earthquakes, risk analysis,risk assessment, and risk management have been carried out internationally. It is of great significance for targeted prevention and mitigation of such earthquake disasters and effective social governance. In order to provide reference for similar potential earthquake-induced disaster reduction work, this paper focuses on the internationally published academic publications, and summarizes the existing research and work on the construction of monitoring systems, seismic hazard analysis, risk assessment, and risk management for possible induced earthquakes.
With the increasing attention of earthquakes and disasters caused by energy exploitation such as shale gas and geothermal energy, timely analysis of possible induced earthquakes, risk analysis,risk assessment, and risk management have been carried out internationally. It is of great significance for targeted prevention and mitigation of such earthquake disasters and effective social governance. In order to provide reference for similar potential earthquake-induced disaster reduction work, this paper focuses on the internationally published academic publications, and summarizes the existing research and work on the construction of monitoring systems, seismic hazard analysis, risk assessment, and risk management for possible induced earthquakes.
引文
[1]Healy J H,Rubey W W,Griggs D T,et al.The Denver earthquakes[J].Science,1968,161(3848):1301-1310
[2]Nicholson C,Wesson R L.Earthquake hazard associated with deep well injection:A report to the USEnvironmental Protection Agency[R].Washington,D.C.,U.S.Geol.Surv.Bull.No 1951,U.S.Gov.Print.Off.,1990
[3]Suckale J.Induced seismicity in hydrocarbon fields[J].Adv.Geophy.,2009,51:55-106
[4]Pennington W D,Davis S D,Carlson S M,et al.The evolution of seismic barriers and asperities caused by the depressuring of fault planes in oil and gas fields of south Texas[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Amer.,1986,76(4):939-948
[5]Davis S D,Pennington W D.Induced seismic deformation in the Cogdell oil field of west Texas[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Amer.,1989,79(5):1477-1495
[6]Frohlich C,Hayward C,Stump B,et al.The Dallas-Fort Worth earthquake sequence:October 2008 through May2009[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Amer.,2011,101(1):327-340
[7]Horton S.Disposal of hydrofracking waste fluid by injection into subsurface aquifers triggers earthquake swarm in central Arkansas with potential for damaging earthquake[J].Seismol.Res.Lett.,2012,83(2):250-260
[8]Gan W,Frohlich C.Gas injection may have triggered earthquakes in the Cogdell oil field,Texas[J].Proc.Nat Acad.Sci.,2013,110(47):18786-18791
[9]Ellsworth W L.Injection-induced earthquakes[J].Science,2013,341(6142):1225942
[10]Frohlich C,Brunt M.Two-year survey of earthquakes and injection/production wells in the Eagle Ford Shale,Texas,prior to the MW4.8 20 October 2011 earthquake[J].Earth Planet.Sci.Lett.,2013,379(5):53-63
[11]Keranen K M,Savage H M,Abers G A,et al.Potentially induced earthquakes in Oklahoma,USA:Links between wastewater injection and the 2011 MW5.7 earthquake sequence[J].Geology,2013,41(6):699-702
[12]Kim W Y.Induced seismicity associated with fluid injection into a deep well in Youngstown,Ohio[J].J.Geophys.Res.:Solid Earth,2013,118(7):3506-3518
[13]Dost B,Spetzler J.Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for induced earthquakes in Groningen[R].KNMI report.Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute(De Bilt),2015:13
[14]Langenbruch C,Zoback M D.How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates?[J].Sci.Adv.,2016,2(11):e1601542
[15]Grigoli F,Cesca S,Priolo E,et al.Current challenges in monitoring,discrimination,and management of induced seismicity related to underground industrial activities:A European perspective[J].Rev.Geophys.,2017,55(2):310-340
[16]Dost B,Haak H W.Natural and induced seismicity[M]//Royal Nether-lands Academy of Arts and Sciences.Geology of the Netherlands.Amsterdam,2007:223-229
[17]Spetzler J,Dost B.Hypocenter estimation of induced earthquakes in Groningen[J].Geophys.J.Int.,2017,209(1):453-465
[18]Tan Y Y,Zhang H J,Li J L,et al.Focal mechanism determination for induced seismicity using the neighbourhood algorithm[J].Geophys.J.Int.,2018,214(3):1715-1731
[19]Maurer V,Cuenot N,Gaucher E,et al.Seismic monitoring of the Rittershoffen EGS project(Alsace,France)[C].Melbourne,Australia:World Geothermal Congress,2015:19-25
[20]Dost B,Ruigrok E,Spetzler J.Development of seismicity and probabilistic hazard assessment for the Groningen gas field[J].Neth.J.Geosci.,2017,96(5):235-245
[21]Priolo E,Romanelli M,Plasencia M P,et al.Seismic monitoring of an underground natural gas storage facility:The Collalto seismic network[J].Seismol.Res.Lett.,2015,86(1):109-123
[22]Kraft T,Deichmann N.High-precision relocation and focal mechanism of the injection-induced seismicity at the Basel EGS[J].Geothermics,2014,52:59-73
[23]Edwards B,Kraft T,Cauzzi C,et al.Seismic monitoring and analysis of deep geothermal projects in St.Gallen and Basel,Switzerland[J].Geophys.J.Int.,2015,201(2):1020-1037
[24]McGarr A,Bekins B,Burkardt N,et al.Coping with earthquakes induced by fluid injection[J].Science,2015,347(6224):830-831
[25]Thienen-Visser K V,Roholl J A,van Kempen B M M,et al.Categorizing seismic risk for the onshore gas fields in the Netherlands[J].Eng.Geo.,2018,237:198-207
[26]Eck T V,Goutbeek F,Haak H,et al.Seismic hazard due to small-magnitude,shallow-source,induced earthquakes in The Netherlands[J].Eng.Geol.,2006,87(1-2):105-121
[27]Bourne S J,Oates S J,Bommer J J,et al.A Monte Carlo method for probabilistic hazard assessment of induced seismicity due to conventional natural gas production[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Amer.,2015,105(3):1721-1738
[28]Bommer J J,Dost B,Edwards B,et al.Developing a model for the prediction of ground motions due to earthquakes in the Groningen gas field[J].Neth.J.Geosci.,2017,96(5):203-213
[29]Petersen M D,Mueller C S,Moschetti M P,et al.Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model-Results of 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies[R].U.S.Geol.Surv.Open-File Rep,2015.2015-1070
[30]Bommer J J,Dost B,Edwards B,et al.Developing an application-specific ground-motion model for induced seismicity[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Amer.,2016,106(1):158-173
[31]Langenbruch C,Zoback M D.Response to Comment on“How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma responds to decreased saltwater injection rates?”[J].Sci.Adv.,2017,3(8):eaao2277
[32]Langenbruch C,Shapiro S A.Decay rate of fluid-induced seismicity after termination of reservoir stimulations[J].Geophysics,2010,75(6):53-62
[33]Renn O.Risk governance:Towards an integraive approach[C].Geneva,Switzerland:Internaional Risk Governance Council,2005
[34]Renn O.Risk Governance[C].London,UK:Coping with Uncertainty in a Complex World.Earthscan.2008
[35]Stauffacher M.Risk governance for induced seismicity:A view from the social sciences[C].Schatzalp Workshop,2015
[36]Majer E,Nelson J,Robertson-Tait A,et al.Protocol for addressing induced seismicity associated with enhanced geothermal systems[R].US Department of Energy,2012
[37]Marzocchi W.Using hazard information for establishing a rationale decision-making[C].Schatzalp Workshop,2015
[38]Raleigh C B,Healy J H,Bredehoeft J D.An experiment in earthquake control at Rangely,Colorado[J].Science,1976,191(4233):1230-1237
[39]Weingarten M,Ge S,Godt J W,et al.High-rate injection is associated with the increase in U.S.mid-continent seismicity[J].Science,2015,348(6241):1336-1340
[40]Hincks T,Aspinall W,Cooke R,et al.Oklahoma’s induced seismicity strongly linked to wastewater injection depth[J].Science,2018,359(6381):eaap791
[41]Brodsky E E.Injecting wastewater underground can cause earthquakes up to 10 kilometers away[Z].The Conversation,2018
[42]Barrett S,Bailey I,Diggin M,et al.Induced seismicity by hydrofracking and wastewater disposal:The re/insurance perspective[C].Schatzalp Workshop,2017
[2]Nicholson C,Wesson R L.Earthquake hazard associated with deep well injection:A report to the USEnvironmental Protection Agency[R].Washington,D.C.,U.S.Geol.Surv.Bull.No 1951,U.S.Gov.Print.Off.,1990
[3]Suckale J.Induced seismicity in hydrocarbon fields[J].Adv.Geophy.,2009,51:55-106
[4]Pennington W D,Davis S D,Carlson S M,et al.The evolution of seismic barriers and asperities caused by the depressuring of fault planes in oil and gas fields of south Texas[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Amer.,1986,76(4):939-948
[5]Davis S D,Pennington W D.Induced seismic deformation in the Cogdell oil field of west Texas[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Amer.,1989,79(5):1477-1495
[6]Frohlich C,Hayward C,Stump B,et al.The Dallas-Fort Worth earthquake sequence:October 2008 through May2009[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Amer.,2011,101(1):327-340
[7]Horton S.Disposal of hydrofracking waste fluid by injection into subsurface aquifers triggers earthquake swarm in central Arkansas with potential for damaging earthquake[J].Seismol.Res.Lett.,2012,83(2):250-260
[8]Gan W,Frohlich C.Gas injection may have triggered earthquakes in the Cogdell oil field,Texas[J].Proc.Nat Acad.Sci.,2013,110(47):18786-18791
[9]Ellsworth W L.Injection-induced earthquakes[J].Science,2013,341(6142):1225942
[10]Frohlich C,Brunt M.Two-year survey of earthquakes and injection/production wells in the Eagle Ford Shale,Texas,prior to the MW4.8 20 October 2011 earthquake[J].Earth Planet.Sci.Lett.,2013,379(5):53-63
[11]Keranen K M,Savage H M,Abers G A,et al.Potentially induced earthquakes in Oklahoma,USA:Links between wastewater injection and the 2011 MW5.7 earthquake sequence[J].Geology,2013,41(6):699-702
[12]Kim W Y.Induced seismicity associated with fluid injection into a deep well in Youngstown,Ohio[J].J.Geophys.Res.:Solid Earth,2013,118(7):3506-3518
[13]Dost B,Spetzler J.Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for induced earthquakes in Groningen[R].KNMI report.Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute(De Bilt),2015:13
[14]Langenbruch C,Zoback M D.How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates?[J].Sci.Adv.,2016,2(11):e1601542
[15]Grigoli F,Cesca S,Priolo E,et al.Current challenges in monitoring,discrimination,and management of induced seismicity related to underground industrial activities:A European perspective[J].Rev.Geophys.,2017,55(2):310-340
[16]Dost B,Haak H W.Natural and induced seismicity[M]//Royal Nether-lands Academy of Arts and Sciences.Geology of the Netherlands.Amsterdam,2007:223-229
[17]Spetzler J,Dost B.Hypocenter estimation of induced earthquakes in Groningen[J].Geophys.J.Int.,2017,209(1):453-465
[18]Tan Y Y,Zhang H J,Li J L,et al.Focal mechanism determination for induced seismicity using the neighbourhood algorithm[J].Geophys.J.Int.,2018,214(3):1715-1731
[19]Maurer V,Cuenot N,Gaucher E,et al.Seismic monitoring of the Rittershoffen EGS project(Alsace,France)[C].Melbourne,Australia:World Geothermal Congress,2015:19-25
[20]Dost B,Ruigrok E,Spetzler J.Development of seismicity and probabilistic hazard assessment for the Groningen gas field[J].Neth.J.Geosci.,2017,96(5):235-245
[21]Priolo E,Romanelli M,Plasencia M P,et al.Seismic monitoring of an underground natural gas storage facility:The Collalto seismic network[J].Seismol.Res.Lett.,2015,86(1):109-123
[22]Kraft T,Deichmann N.High-precision relocation and focal mechanism of the injection-induced seismicity at the Basel EGS[J].Geothermics,2014,52:59-73
[23]Edwards B,Kraft T,Cauzzi C,et al.Seismic monitoring and analysis of deep geothermal projects in St.Gallen and Basel,Switzerland[J].Geophys.J.Int.,2015,201(2):1020-1037
[24]McGarr A,Bekins B,Burkardt N,et al.Coping with earthquakes induced by fluid injection[J].Science,2015,347(6224):830-831
[25]Thienen-Visser K V,Roholl J A,van Kempen B M M,et al.Categorizing seismic risk for the onshore gas fields in the Netherlands[J].Eng.Geo.,2018,237:198-207
[26]Eck T V,Goutbeek F,Haak H,et al.Seismic hazard due to small-magnitude,shallow-source,induced earthquakes in The Netherlands[J].Eng.Geol.,2006,87(1-2):105-121
[27]Bourne S J,Oates S J,Bommer J J,et al.A Monte Carlo method for probabilistic hazard assessment of induced seismicity due to conventional natural gas production[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Amer.,2015,105(3):1721-1738
[28]Bommer J J,Dost B,Edwards B,et al.Developing a model for the prediction of ground motions due to earthquakes in the Groningen gas field[J].Neth.J.Geosci.,2017,96(5):203-213
[29]Petersen M D,Mueller C S,Moschetti M P,et al.Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model-Results of 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies[R].U.S.Geol.Surv.Open-File Rep,2015.2015-1070
[30]Bommer J J,Dost B,Edwards B,et al.Developing an application-specific ground-motion model for induced seismicity[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Amer.,2016,106(1):158-173
[31]Langenbruch C,Zoback M D.Response to Comment on“How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma responds to decreased saltwater injection rates?”[J].Sci.Adv.,2017,3(8):eaao2277
[32]Langenbruch C,Shapiro S A.Decay rate of fluid-induced seismicity after termination of reservoir stimulations[J].Geophysics,2010,75(6):53-62
[33]Renn O.Risk governance:Towards an integraive approach[C].Geneva,Switzerland:Internaional Risk Governance Council,2005
[34]Renn O.Risk Governance[C].London,UK:Coping with Uncertainty in a Complex World.Earthscan.2008
[35]Stauffacher M.Risk governance for induced seismicity:A view from the social sciences[C].Schatzalp Workshop,2015
[36]Majer E,Nelson J,Robertson-Tait A,et al.Protocol for addressing induced seismicity associated with enhanced geothermal systems[R].US Department of Energy,2012
[37]Marzocchi W.Using hazard information for establishing a rationale decision-making[C].Schatzalp Workshop,2015
[38]Raleigh C B,Healy J H,Bredehoeft J D.An experiment in earthquake control at Rangely,Colorado[J].Science,1976,191(4233):1230-1237
[39]Weingarten M,Ge S,Godt J W,et al.High-rate injection is associated with the increase in U.S.mid-continent seismicity[J].Science,2015,348(6241):1336-1340
[40]Hincks T,Aspinall W,Cooke R,et al.Oklahoma’s induced seismicity strongly linked to wastewater injection depth[J].Science,2018,359(6381):eaap791
[41]Brodsky E E.Injecting wastewater underground can cause earthquakes up to 10 kilometers away[Z].The Conversation,2018
[42]Barrett S,Bailey I,Diggin M,et al.Induced seismicity by hydrofracking and wastewater disposal:The re/insurance perspective[C].Schatzalp Workshop,2017
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