“全面二孩”政策背景下生育对城镇女性职业中断的影响研究
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摘要
随着"全面二孩"政策的深入推行,城镇女性的生育习惯与生育行为逐渐发生改变,面临因生育及二次生育而职业中断的窘境,聚焦生育与职业中断成为当前女性就业工作的重要环节。基于相关数据,运用固定效应模型测度城镇女性职业中断的影响因素,借助Probit模型剖析生育对城镇女性职业中断的影响与作用机制,结果显示:生育和抚养意愿越强的女性越容易发生职业中断,生育年龄越大、生育间隔越长越有利于女性就业;家庭照料、就业支持和育儿假正向影响女性再就业;生育保险、生育津贴和托幼服务对避免女性职业中断具有积极效果,劳动合同、就业培训和就业补助是女性就业的重要保障,性别歧视会加重女性职业中断。因此,应健全"二孩"配套政策,优化社会支持体系;在家庭内部建立工作—家庭平衡机制,完善家庭照料体系;重塑组织文化,最大限度地吸纳女性就业;努力提升女性人力资本存量,从而营造高涵养力的就业环境,建立健全生育与就业保障体系。
With the implementation of the "Universal Two-Child Policy",urban women's reproductive habits and fertility behaviors have gradually changed,facing the dilemma of career interruption due to childbirth and second childbirth.Focusing on childbearing and career interruption has become an important part of women's employment at current stage.Based on the yearbook and survey data,this paper uses the Fixed-Effect Model to measure the influencing factors of urban women's career interruption,and the Probit Model to analyze the influence of fertility on career interruption and its mechanism.The results show that women with stronger fertility and supportive desires are more likely to experience career interruption.The older childbearing age,as well as the longer birth interval,is more conducive to women's employment;family care,employment support and parental leave are positively affecting women 's re-employment;maternity insurance,maternity benefits and childcare services have positive effects on avoiding career interruption;labor contracts,employment guidance and employment subsidies are important guarantees for women 's employment;and gender discrimination can aggravate career interruption.We should improve the supporting policy for two-child families,establish a work-family balance mechanism within the family,strive to increase the stock of women's human capital,create an employment environment with high resilience,and establish a sound system of fertility and employment security.
With the implementation of the "Universal Two-Child Policy",urban women's reproductive habits and fertility behaviors have gradually changed,facing the dilemma of career interruption due to childbirth and second childbirth.Focusing on childbearing and career interruption has become an important part of women's employment at current stage.Based on the yearbook and survey data,this paper uses the Fixed-Effect Model to measure the influencing factors of urban women's career interruption,and the Probit Model to analyze the influence of fertility on career interruption and its mechanism.The results show that women with stronger fertility and supportive desires are more likely to experience career interruption.The older childbearing age,as well as the longer birth interval,is more conducive to women's employment;family care,employment support and parental leave are positively affecting women 's re-employment;maternity insurance,maternity benefits and childcare services have positive effects on avoiding career interruption;labor contracts,employment guidance and employment subsidies are important guarantees for women 's employment;and gender discrimination can aggravate career interruption.We should improve the supporting policy for two-child families,establish a work-family balance mechanism within the family,strive to increase the stock of women's human capital,create an employment environment with high resilience,and establish a sound system of fertility and employment security.
引文
丁仁船,2008,《宏观经济因素对中国城镇劳动供给的影响》,《中国人口科学》第3期。
第三期中国妇女社会地位调查课题组,2011,《第三期中国妇女社会地位调查主要数据报告》,《妇女研究论丛》第6期。
何谦,2007,《职业生涯中断对女性雇员的影响---一个文献的综述》,《中国劳动关系学院学报》第3期。
黄桂霞,2014,《生育支持对女性职业中断的缓冲作用---以第三期中国妇女社会地位调查为基础》,《妇女研究论丛》第4期。
赖德胜,1998,《教育、劳动力市场与收入分配》,《经济研究》第5期。
李芳,2007,《国内外关于女性人力资本理论研究综述》,《现代经济探讨》第11期。
李芬,2015,《工作母亲的职业新困境及其化解---以单独二孩政策为背景》,《东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》第4期。
李芬,2018,《二孩政策下生育对女性职业发展的瘢痕效应---基于全国十二城市的实证研究》,《河北学刊》第6期。
李芬、风笑天,2016,《“对母亲的收入惩罚”现象:理论归因与实证检验》,《国外理论动态》第3期。
马莉、郑真真,2015,《韩国妇女的生育后再就业及其对中国的启示》,《劳动经济研究》第2期。
宁本荣,2005,《新时期女性职业发展的困境及原因分析》,《西北人口》第4期。
孙志军,2004,《中国教育个人收益率研究:一个文献综述及其政策含义》,《中国人口科学》第5期。
张琪、张琳,2017,《生育支持对女性职业稳定的影响机制研究》,《北京社会科学》第7期。
张樨樨、李勤、高紫琪,2018,《全面二孩政策引发的职业女性就业歧视新思考》,《山西大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》第5期。
张樨樨、王利华,2017,《“全面二孩”政策对城镇女性就业质量的影响》,《上海大学学报(社会科学版)》第5期。
张霞、茹雪,2016,《中国职业女性生育困境原因探究---以“全面二孩”政策为背景》,《贵州社会科学》第9期。
张银,2017,《城镇女性的生育型职业中断问题探析》,《理论与现代化》第2期。
Aisenbrey,S.,Evertsson,M.and Grunow,D.,2009,“Is There a Career Penalty for Mothers'Time Out?A Comparison of Germany,Sweden and the United States”,Social Forces,Vol.88,No.2.
Bachmann,A.C.and Gatermann,D.,2017,“The Duration of Family-Related Employment Interruptions---the Role of Occupational Characteristics”,Journal for Labour Market Research,Vol.50,No.1.
Bauernschuster,S.and Schlotter,M.,2015,“Public Child Care and Mothers'Labor Supply---Evidence from Two Quasi-Experiments”,Journal of Public Economics,Vol.123.
Bettendorf,L.J.H.,Jongen,E.L.W.and Muller,P.,2015,“Childcare Subsidies and Labour Supply---Evidence from a Large Dutch Reform”,Labour Economics,Vol.36.
Brewster,K.L.and Rindfuss,R.R.,2000,“Fertility and Women's Employment in Industrialized Nations”,Annual Review of Sociology,Vol.26,No.26.
Budig,M.J.,2003,“Are Women's Employment and Fertility Histories Interdependent?An Examination of Causal Order Using Event History Analysis”,Social Science Research,Vol.32,No.3.
Drasch,K.,2013,“Educational Attainment and Family-Related Employment Interruptions in Germany:Do Changing Institutional Settings Matter?”European Sociological Review,Vol.29,No.5.
Ejrns,M.and Kunze,A.,2013,“Work and Wage Dynamics around Childbirth”,The Scandinavian Journal of Economics,Vol.115,No.3.
Evertsson,M.and Duvander,A.Z.,2011,“Parental Leave-Possibility or Trap?Does Family Leave Length Effect Swedish Women's Labour Market Opportunities?”European Sociological Review,Vol.27,No.4.
Freitas,N.E.M.D.,Duc,C.,Briard,K.,et al.,2011,“Career Interruptions:How Do They Impact Pension Rights?”The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance-Issues and Practice,Vol.36,No.3.
Gafni,D.and Siniver,E.,2015,“Is There a Motherhood Wage Penalty for Highly Skilled Women?”Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy,Vol.15,No.3.
Gash,V.,2009,“Sacrificing Their Careers for Their Families?An Analysis of the Penalty to Motherhood in Europe”,Social Indicators Research,Vol.93,No.3.
Geyer,J.,Haan,P.and Wrohlich,K.,2015,“The Effects of Family Policy on Maternal Labor Supply:Combining Evidence from a Structural Model and a Quasi-Experimental Approach”,Labour Economics,Vol.36.
Givord,P.and Marbot,C.,2015,“Does the Cost of Child Care Affect Female Labor Market Participation?An Evaluation of a French Reform of Childcare Subsidies”,Labour Economics,Vol.36.
Grunow,D.,Aisenbrey,S.and Evertsson,M.,2011,“Familienpolitik,Bildung und Berufskarrieren von Müttern in Deutschland,USA und Schweden”,Kzfss K9lner Zeitschrift Für Soziologie Und Sozialpsychologie,Vol.63,No.3.
Haan,P.and Wrohlich,K.,2011,“Can Child Care Policy Encourage Employment and Fertility?Evidence from a Structural Model”,Labour Economics,Vol.18,No.4.
Hakim,C.,2003,“A New Approach to Explaining Fertility Patterns:Preference Theory”,Population&Development Review,Vol.29,No.3.
Jia,N.and Dong,X.Y.,2013,“Economic Transition and the Motherhood Wage Penalty in Urban China:Investigation Using Panel Data”,Cambridge Journal of Economics,Vol.37,No.4.
Kahn,J.R.,Garcíamanglano,J.and Bianchi,S.M.,2014,“The Motherhood Penalty at Midlife:Long-Term Effects of Children on Women's Careers”,Journal of Marriage&Family,Vol.76,No.1.
Kricheli-Katz,T.,2012,“Choice,Discrimination,and the Motherhood Penalty”,Law&Society Review,Vol.46,No.3.
Mertens,N.,Schippers,J.and Siegers,J.,1995,“Career Interruptions and Women's Life-Time Earnings”,European Journal of Women's Studies,Vol.2,No.4.
Miller,A.R.,2011,“The Effects of Motherhood Timing on Career Path”,Journal of Population Economics,Vol.24,No.3.
Ondrich,J.,Spiess,C.K.and Yang,Q.,2003,“Changes in Women's Wages after Parental Leave”,Social Science Studies,Vol.123,No.1.
Ruhm,C.J.,1998,“The Economic Consequences of Parental Leave Mandates:Lessons from Europe”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.113,No.1.
Stier,H.and Braun,M.,2001,“Welfare Regimes,Family-Supportive Policies,and Women's Employment along the Life-Course”,American Journal of Sociology,Vol.106,No.6.
Ziefle,A.,2004,“Die Individuellen Kosten des Erziehungsurlaubs”,Kzfss K9lner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie,Vol.56,No.2.
Ziefle,A.and Gangl,M.,2014,“Do Women Respond to Changes in Family Policy?A Quasi-Experimental Study of the Duration of Mothers'Employment Interruptions in Germany”,European Sociological Review,Vol.30,No.5.
(1)数据来源于《中国劳动统计年鉴(2016)》。
(1)专家团成员包括:中国人民大学劳动人事学院、中国社科院劳动经济研究所、首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院以及中国海洋大学管理学院、经济学院的专家学者。
第三期中国妇女社会地位调查课题组,2011,《第三期中国妇女社会地位调查主要数据报告》,《妇女研究论丛》第6期。
何谦,2007,《职业生涯中断对女性雇员的影响---一个文献的综述》,《中国劳动关系学院学报》第3期。
黄桂霞,2014,《生育支持对女性职业中断的缓冲作用---以第三期中国妇女社会地位调查为基础》,《妇女研究论丛》第4期。
赖德胜,1998,《教育、劳动力市场与收入分配》,《经济研究》第5期。
李芳,2007,《国内外关于女性人力资本理论研究综述》,《现代经济探讨》第11期。
李芬,2015,《工作母亲的职业新困境及其化解---以单独二孩政策为背景》,《东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》第4期。
李芬,2018,《二孩政策下生育对女性职业发展的瘢痕效应---基于全国十二城市的实证研究》,《河北学刊》第6期。
李芬、风笑天,2016,《“对母亲的收入惩罚”现象:理论归因与实证检验》,《国外理论动态》第3期。
马莉、郑真真,2015,《韩国妇女的生育后再就业及其对中国的启示》,《劳动经济研究》第2期。
宁本荣,2005,《新时期女性职业发展的困境及原因分析》,《西北人口》第4期。
孙志军,2004,《中国教育个人收益率研究:一个文献综述及其政策含义》,《中国人口科学》第5期。
张琪、张琳,2017,《生育支持对女性职业稳定的影响机制研究》,《北京社会科学》第7期。
张樨樨、李勤、高紫琪,2018,《全面二孩政策引发的职业女性就业歧视新思考》,《山西大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》第5期。
张樨樨、王利华,2017,《“全面二孩”政策对城镇女性就业质量的影响》,《上海大学学报(社会科学版)》第5期。
张霞、茹雪,2016,《中国职业女性生育困境原因探究---以“全面二孩”政策为背景》,《贵州社会科学》第9期。
张银,2017,《城镇女性的生育型职业中断问题探析》,《理论与现代化》第2期。
Aisenbrey,S.,Evertsson,M.and Grunow,D.,2009,“Is There a Career Penalty for Mothers'Time Out?A Comparison of Germany,Sweden and the United States”,Social Forces,Vol.88,No.2.
Bachmann,A.C.and Gatermann,D.,2017,“The Duration of Family-Related Employment Interruptions---the Role of Occupational Characteristics”,Journal for Labour Market Research,Vol.50,No.1.
Bauernschuster,S.and Schlotter,M.,2015,“Public Child Care and Mothers'Labor Supply---Evidence from Two Quasi-Experiments”,Journal of Public Economics,Vol.123.
Bettendorf,L.J.H.,Jongen,E.L.W.and Muller,P.,2015,“Childcare Subsidies and Labour Supply---Evidence from a Large Dutch Reform”,Labour Economics,Vol.36.
Brewster,K.L.and Rindfuss,R.R.,2000,“Fertility and Women's Employment in Industrialized Nations”,Annual Review of Sociology,Vol.26,No.26.
Budig,M.J.,2003,“Are Women's Employment and Fertility Histories Interdependent?An Examination of Causal Order Using Event History Analysis”,Social Science Research,Vol.32,No.3.
Drasch,K.,2013,“Educational Attainment and Family-Related Employment Interruptions in Germany:Do Changing Institutional Settings Matter?”European Sociological Review,Vol.29,No.5.
Ejrns,M.and Kunze,A.,2013,“Work and Wage Dynamics around Childbirth”,The Scandinavian Journal of Economics,Vol.115,No.3.
Evertsson,M.and Duvander,A.Z.,2011,“Parental Leave-Possibility or Trap?Does Family Leave Length Effect Swedish Women's Labour Market Opportunities?”European Sociological Review,Vol.27,No.4.
Freitas,N.E.M.D.,Duc,C.,Briard,K.,et al.,2011,“Career Interruptions:How Do They Impact Pension Rights?”The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance-Issues and Practice,Vol.36,No.3.
Gafni,D.and Siniver,E.,2015,“Is There a Motherhood Wage Penalty for Highly Skilled Women?”Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy,Vol.15,No.3.
Gash,V.,2009,“Sacrificing Their Careers for Their Families?An Analysis of the Penalty to Motherhood in Europe”,Social Indicators Research,Vol.93,No.3.
Geyer,J.,Haan,P.and Wrohlich,K.,2015,“The Effects of Family Policy on Maternal Labor Supply:Combining Evidence from a Structural Model and a Quasi-Experimental Approach”,Labour Economics,Vol.36.
Givord,P.and Marbot,C.,2015,“Does the Cost of Child Care Affect Female Labor Market Participation?An Evaluation of a French Reform of Childcare Subsidies”,Labour Economics,Vol.36.
Grunow,D.,Aisenbrey,S.and Evertsson,M.,2011,“Familienpolitik,Bildung und Berufskarrieren von Müttern in Deutschland,USA und Schweden”,Kzfss K9lner Zeitschrift Für Soziologie Und Sozialpsychologie,Vol.63,No.3.
Haan,P.and Wrohlich,K.,2011,“Can Child Care Policy Encourage Employment and Fertility?Evidence from a Structural Model”,Labour Economics,Vol.18,No.4.
Hakim,C.,2003,“A New Approach to Explaining Fertility Patterns:Preference Theory”,Population&Development Review,Vol.29,No.3.
Jia,N.and Dong,X.Y.,2013,“Economic Transition and the Motherhood Wage Penalty in Urban China:Investigation Using Panel Data”,Cambridge Journal of Economics,Vol.37,No.4.
Kahn,J.R.,Garcíamanglano,J.and Bianchi,S.M.,2014,“The Motherhood Penalty at Midlife:Long-Term Effects of Children on Women's Careers”,Journal of Marriage&Family,Vol.76,No.1.
Kricheli-Katz,T.,2012,“Choice,Discrimination,and the Motherhood Penalty”,Law&Society Review,Vol.46,No.3.
Mertens,N.,Schippers,J.and Siegers,J.,1995,“Career Interruptions and Women's Life-Time Earnings”,European Journal of Women's Studies,Vol.2,No.4.
Miller,A.R.,2011,“The Effects of Motherhood Timing on Career Path”,Journal of Population Economics,Vol.24,No.3.
Ondrich,J.,Spiess,C.K.and Yang,Q.,2003,“Changes in Women's Wages after Parental Leave”,Social Science Studies,Vol.123,No.1.
Ruhm,C.J.,1998,“The Economic Consequences of Parental Leave Mandates:Lessons from Europe”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.113,No.1.
Stier,H.and Braun,M.,2001,“Welfare Regimes,Family-Supportive Policies,and Women's Employment along the Life-Course”,American Journal of Sociology,Vol.106,No.6.
Ziefle,A.,2004,“Die Individuellen Kosten des Erziehungsurlaubs”,Kzfss K9lner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie,Vol.56,No.2.
Ziefle,A.and Gangl,M.,2014,“Do Women Respond to Changes in Family Policy?A Quasi-Experimental Study of the Duration of Mothers'Employment Interruptions in Germany”,European Sociological Review,Vol.30,No.5.
(1)数据来源于《中国劳动统计年鉴(2016)》。
(1)专家团成员包括:中国人民大学劳动人事学院、中国社科院劳动经济研究所、首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院以及中国海洋大学管理学院、经济学院的专家学者。
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