Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models

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英文篇名：Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models 作者：HU ; Yecui ; ZHENG ; Yunmei ; ZHENG ; Xinqi 英文作者：HU Yecui1,2,ZHENG Yunmei1,ZHENG Xinqi1,2(1.School of Land Science & Technique,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China;2.Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation,Ministry of Land and Resources,Beijing 100035,China) 英文关键词：CLUE-S model;land use;Markov model;scenario simulation;Beijing 中文刊名：ZDKX 英文刊名：中国地理科学(英文版) 机构：School of Land Science & Technique,China University of Geosciences;Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation,Ministry of Land and Resources; 出版日期：2013-02-15 出版单位：Chinese Geographical Science 年：2013 期：v.23 基金：Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 70903061,41171440);; National Public Benefit (Land) Research Foundation of China (No. 201111014);; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 2011YXL055) 语种：英文; 页：ZDKX201301008 页数：9 CN：01 ISSN：22-1174/P 分类号：94-102

摘要

This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000,respectively,by combining spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model,and numerical land demand prediction using the Markov model.The simulations for 2000 and 2005 were confirmed to be generally accurate using Kappa indices.Then the land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2015 were simulated assuming two modes of development:1) urban development following existing trends;and 2) under a strict farmland control.The simulations suggested that under either mode,urbanized areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses.This expansion was predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2005 and 2015,and was expected to be accompanied by an extensive loss of farmland.The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the central urban Beijing and the surrounding regions including Yanqing County,Changping District and Fangshan District.Also,the simulations predicted a considerable expansion of urban/suburban areas in the mountainous regions of Beijing,suggesting a need for priority monitoring and protection.
        This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000,respectively,by combining spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model,and numerical land demand prediction using the Markov model.The simulations for 2000 and 2005 were confirmed to be generally accurate using Kappa indices.Then the land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2015 were simulated assuming two modes of development:1) urban development following existing trends;and 2) under a strict farmland control.The simulations suggested that under either mode,urbanized areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses.This expansion was predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2005 and 2015,and was expected to be accompanied by an extensive loss of farmland.The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the central urban Beijing and the surrounding regions including Yanqing County,Changping District and Fangshan District.Also,the simulations predicted a considerable expansion of urban/suburban areas in the mountainous regions of Beijing,suggesting a need for priority monitoring and protection.

引文

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