变化环境下半干旱草原流域径流变化特征及其影响因子定量分析
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摘要
地表水文过程在气候波动和人类活动的作用下发生了不可忽视的变化,这种变化对于内蒙古半干旱草原流域来说更为显著。采用改进的M-K趋势检验法、双累积曲线法、累积距平法和小波变换法对典型半干旱草原流域——锡林河流域1963～2015年径流序列的变化特征进行了剖析,并以社会经济指标量化流域内人类活动影响及细化降水特征因素,运用统计检验和主成分分析进行了变化环境下流域径流主要影响因素的定量分析。结果表明,锡林河流域径流量在水文年、季尺度呈现显著(p<0.05)减少趋势;流域径流的突变年份为1998年,在其前后影响径流变化的主导因素发生变化,1998年以后径流受到人类活动和气候变化的双重影响;水文年和枯水季径流序列均存在6年、25年左右的周期,而丰水季径流不存在显著周期变化;尽管气候因素中的降水、蒸发、相对湿度及所有人类活动因素与径流显著相关而影响径流,但其中人类活动为径流变化的主导因素。
The climate fluctuation and human activities have significant effects on the changes of surface hydrological processes in the basin, especially for the semiarid steppe basin. This paper chosen the Xilin River basin to analyze the variation characteristics of its runoff series from 1963 to 2015 by using the improved M-K trend test method, the double accumulation curve method, the cumulative anomaly method and the wavelet transform method. The main influencing factors were analyzed by the statistical correlation test and the principal component analysis at hydrological year and seasonal scale. The results show that the runoff decreased significantly at all time scale in the Xilin River basin in the past years; the mutation year of it was in 1998, and the dominant factors affecting runoff were changed after that year; the cycles of the hydrological year and dry season runoff were 6 and25 years while there were no significant cycle changes in the wet season runoff. The factors like precipitation, evaporation, relative humidity, and human activities have significant impacts on runoff, but the human activities are the dominant ones.
The climate fluctuation and human activities have significant effects on the changes of surface hydrological processes in the basin, especially for the semiarid steppe basin. This paper chosen the Xilin River basin to analyze the variation characteristics of its runoff series from 1963 to 2015 by using the improved M-K trend test method, the double accumulation curve method, the cumulative anomaly method and the wavelet transform method. The main influencing factors were analyzed by the statistical correlation test and the principal component analysis at hydrological year and seasonal scale. The results show that the runoff decreased significantly at all time scale in the Xilin River basin in the past years; the mutation year of it was in 1998, and the dominant factors affecting runoff were changed after that year; the cycles of the hydrological year and dry season runoff were 6 and25 years while there were no significant cycle changes in the wet season runoff. The factors like precipitation, evaporation, relative humidity, and human activities have significant impacts on runoff, but the human activities are the dominant ones.
引文
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[14] Xixi Wang,Xiaomin Yang.Trend and extreme occurrence of precipi-tation in a midlatitude Eurasian steppe watershed at various timescales[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2014, 28(22):5547-5560.
[15]赵煜飞,朱江,许艳.近50a中国降水格点数据集的建立及质量评估[J].气象科学,2014,34(4):414-420.(ZHAO Yufei,ZHU Jiang,XU Yan. Establishment and assessment of the grid precipitationdatasets in China for recent 50 years[J]. Pratacultural Science,2014,34(4):414-420.(in Chinese))
[16] Hamed K.H.,Rao.A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for auto-correlated data[J]. Hydrology, 1998, 204, 182-196.
[17]刘志方,刘友存,郝永红,等.黑河出山径流过程与气象要素多尺度交叉小波分析[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(6):1137-1146.(LIU Zhi-fang,LIU Youcun,HAO Yonghong,et al. Multi-time scale cross-wavelet transformation between runoff and climate factors in theupstream of Heihe River[J]. Arid Land Geography,2014,37(6):1137-1146.(in Chinese))
[18]高瑞忠,冯国华,朝伦巴根,等.黄河内蒙古段冰情变化特性的统计分析[J].人民黄河,2010,32(04):53-58.(GAO Ruizhong,FENG Guo-hua,CHAOLUN Bagen,et al. Statistical analysis on characteristicsof ice regime variation at Inner Mongolia section of the YellowRiver[J]. Yellow River,2010,32(04):53-58.(in Chinese))
[19]唐启义.DPS数据处理系统-实验设计、统计分析及模型优化[M].北京:科学出版社, 2006.(TANG Qiyi.DPS Data Processing Systemfor Experimental Design, Statistical Analysis and Model Optimiza-tion[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2006.(in Chinese))
[20]刘洪兰,张强,郭俊琴,等.黑河流域春季降水空间分异性特征及其与黑河流量的相关分析[J].中国沙漠, 2014, 34(06):1633-1640.(LIU Honglan, ZHANG Qiang, GUO Junqin, et al. Spatial differ-entiation of spring precipitation in the Heihe River basin and itscorrelation with the river flow[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2014, 34(6):1633-1640.(in Chinese))
[2]刘贵花,齐述华,熊梦雅,等.气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域赣江径流影响的定量分析[J].湖泊科学,2016,28(3):682-690.(LIUGuihua, QI Shuhua, XIONG Mengya, et al. Quantitative estimationof runoff changes in Ganjiang River, Lake Poyang basin under cli-mate change and anthropogenic impacts[J]. Journal of Lake Sci-ences, 2016,28(3):682-690.(in Chinese))
[3]崔新华.人工神经网络模型在淮滨站天然径流量计算中的应用初探[J].水文,2008,28(2):55-59.(CUI Xinhua. Application of neuralnetwork BP model in calculating annual natural runoff at Huaibinstation[J]. Journal of China Hydrology,2008,28(2):55-59.(in Chi-nese))
[4]高瑞忠,白勇,刘廷玺,等.内蒙古高原典型草原内陆河流域径流的时序演变特征[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(3):10-17.(GAORuizhong, BAI Yong, LIU Tingxi,et al.Evolution characteristics ofrunoff in the typical grassland inland river basin of Inner MongoliaPlateau[J]. South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology, 2018, 16(3):10-17.(in Chinese))
[5]邵月红,林柄章,刘永和,等.基于径流分类的流域降雨-径流过程动态神经网络建模[J].地理科学,2012,32(1):74-80.(SHAO Yuehong,LIN Bingzhang, LIU Yonghe,et al.Rainfall-runoff simulation basedon runoff classification using dynamic artificial neural networks[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(1):74-80.(in Chinese))
[6]吴梦莹,王中根,党素珍,等.基于HIMS的黑河上游山区径流模拟与分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(10):1913-1921.(WU Mengying,WANG Zhonggen, DANG Suzhen, et al.Simulation and analysisbased on HIMS of runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe Riverbasin[J]. Resources Science,2012,34(10):1913-1921.(in Chinese))
[7]刘兆飞,王翊晨,姚治君,等.太湖流域降水、气温与径流变化趋势及周期分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(9):1575-1584.(LIUZhaofei,WANG Yichen,YAO Zhijun,et al.Trend and periodicity ofprecipitation,air temperature and runoff in the Taihu Lake basin[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(9):1575-1584.(in Chi-nese))
[8] Xu,J. X.Sediment flux to the sea as influenced by changing humanactivities and precipitation:example of the Yellow River, China[J].Environ. Manag. 2003, 31(3), 328-341.
[9]陈剑霞,黄维东.祖厉河流域年径流趋势预测分析[J].水利科技与经济,2007,13(12):920-921.(CHEN Jianxia,HUANG Weidong.Forecast and analysis of annual runoff trend in Zuli River basin[J].Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy,2007,13(12):920-921.(in Chinese))
[10]邓振镛,张强,王润元,等.河西内陆河径流对气候变化的响应及其流域适应性水资源管理研究[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(5):1267-1275.(DENG Zhenyong,ZHANG Qiang,WANG Runyuan,et al. A studyon impacts of climate change on runoff of inland rivers and adap-tive water resource managements in Hexi corridor[J]. Journal ofGlaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(5):1267-1275.(in Chinese))
[11]牛最荣,赵文智,刘进琪,等.甘肃渭河流域气温、降水和径流变化特征及趋势研究[J].水文,2012,32(2):78-84.(NIU Zuirong, ZHAOWenzhi, LIU Jinqi, et al.Study on change characteristics and ten-dency of temperature, precipitation and runoff in Weihe Riverbasin in Gansu[J]. Journal of China Hydrology,2012,32(2):78-84.(in Chinese))
[12]焦玮,朱仲元,宋小园,等.近50年气候和人类活动对锡林河流域径流的影响[J].中国水土保持科学,2015,13(6):904-909.(JIAOWei,ZHU Zhongyuan,SONG Xiaoyuan,et al. Impacts of climatechange and human activities on runoff yield of the Xilin Riverbasin over nearly 50 years[J]. Science of Soil and Water Conser-vation,2015,13(6):904-909.(in Chinese))
[13]杨立哲,钱虹,郝璐.锡林河近50年径流变化特征及其影响因素分析[J].草业科学,2015,32(3):303-310.(YANG Lizhe,QIAN Hong,HAO Lu. Analysis of runoff variations and impact factors in Xil-inhe River basin in recent 50 years[J]. Pratacultural Science,2015,32(3):303-310.(in Chinese))
[14] Xixi Wang,Xiaomin Yang.Trend and extreme occurrence of precipi-tation in a midlatitude Eurasian steppe watershed at various timescales[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2014, 28(22):5547-5560.
[15]赵煜飞,朱江,许艳.近50a中国降水格点数据集的建立及质量评估[J].气象科学,2014,34(4):414-420.(ZHAO Yufei,ZHU Jiang,XU Yan. Establishment and assessment of the grid precipitationdatasets in China for recent 50 years[J]. Pratacultural Science,2014,34(4):414-420.(in Chinese))
[16] Hamed K.H.,Rao.A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for auto-correlated data[J]. Hydrology, 1998, 204, 182-196.
[17]刘志方,刘友存,郝永红,等.黑河出山径流过程与气象要素多尺度交叉小波分析[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(6):1137-1146.(LIU Zhi-fang,LIU Youcun,HAO Yonghong,et al. Multi-time scale cross-wavelet transformation between runoff and climate factors in theupstream of Heihe River[J]. Arid Land Geography,2014,37(6):1137-1146.(in Chinese))
[18]高瑞忠,冯国华,朝伦巴根,等.黄河内蒙古段冰情变化特性的统计分析[J].人民黄河,2010,32(04):53-58.(GAO Ruizhong,FENG Guo-hua,CHAOLUN Bagen,et al. Statistical analysis on characteristicsof ice regime variation at Inner Mongolia section of the YellowRiver[J]. Yellow River,2010,32(04):53-58.(in Chinese))
[19]唐启义.DPS数据处理系统-实验设计、统计分析及模型优化[M].北京:科学出版社, 2006.(TANG Qiyi.DPS Data Processing Systemfor Experimental Design, Statistical Analysis and Model Optimiza-tion[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2006.(in Chinese))
[20]刘洪兰,张强,郭俊琴,等.黑河流域春季降水空间分异性特征及其与黑河流量的相关分析[J].中国沙漠, 2014, 34(06):1633-1640.(LIU Honglan, ZHANG Qiang, GUO Junqin, et al. Spatial differ-entiation of spring precipitation in the Heihe River basin and itscorrelation with the river flow[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2014, 34(6):1633-1640.(in Chinese))
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