交通基础设施投资与经济增长——基于准自然实验的证据
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摘要
基于京九铁路构建的准自然实验样本并运用非参数匹配估计方法,本文探讨了交通基础设施投资与经济增长的关系.利用1991-2010年中部地区50个县数据检验了京九铁路投资对途经县市经济增长的短期效应,中长期效应及滞后效应.实证检验结论表明:第一,京九铁路投资对途经县市经济增长的影响总体上是显著的.短期内京九铁路投资对途经县市人均GDP的增长显著,且平均增加值达220元左右,中长期的平均增加值达1100元左右.第二,京九铁路投资存在明显的溢出效应,京九铁路沿线主要站点附近县市的经济增长均受益.第三,京九铁路投资对途经县市的经济增长存在滞后效应并呈现倒U型结构,表现为经济增长会逐步增大至10年左右后呈逐步减弱的特点.
This paper explores the relationship between the investment of transportation infrastructure and the economic growth by a non-parametric matching estimation method based on the quasi-natural experiment samples from the Beijing-Kowloon Railway. Using the data from 50 counties in the central region from 1991 to 2010, we test the short-term effects, medium and long-term effects, and lagging effects of the investment by Beijing-Kowloon Railway on counties of the economic growth. The empirical results show that: First, the impact of Beijing-Kowloon Railway investment on the economic growth of counties and cities is generally significant. The growth of the Beijing-Kowloon Railway investment in the perspective of GDP per capita of transiting counties in the short-term is significant, and the average increase value reaches around 220 yuan, and the average increase is as high as 1,100 yuan in medium and long-term.Second, there is a significant spill over effect from the investment of the Beijing-Kowloon Railway. The economic growth of the counties and cities near the main stations along the Beijing-Kowloon Railway will benefit. Third, there is a lagged effect from the investment of the Beijing-Kowloon Railway on the economic growth that passes through counties and cities and presents an inverted U-shaped structure,which is characterized by gradual increase in economic growth to gradually decline after about 10 years.
This paper explores the relationship between the investment of transportation infrastructure and the economic growth by a non-parametric matching estimation method based on the quasi-natural experiment samples from the Beijing-Kowloon Railway. Using the data from 50 counties in the central region from 1991 to 2010, we test the short-term effects, medium and long-term effects, and lagging effects of the investment by Beijing-Kowloon Railway on counties of the economic growth. The empirical results show that: First, the impact of Beijing-Kowloon Railway investment on the economic growth of counties and cities is generally significant. The growth of the Beijing-Kowloon Railway investment in the perspective of GDP per capita of transiting counties in the short-term is significant, and the average increase value reaches around 220 yuan, and the average increase is as high as 1,100 yuan in medium and long-term.Second, there is a significant spill over effect from the investment of the Beijing-Kowloon Railway. The economic growth of the counties and cities near the main stations along the Beijing-Kowloon Railway will benefit. Third, there is a lagged effect from the investment of the Beijing-Kowloon Railway on the economic growth that passes through counties and cities and presents an inverted U-shaped structure,which is characterized by gradual increase in economic growth to gradually decline after about 10 years.
引文
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[14]Qin Y. No county left behind? The distributional impact of high-speed rail upgrades in China[J]. Journal of Economic Geography, 2017, 17(3):489-520.
[15]李涵,唐丽淼.交通基础设施投资,空间溢出效应与企业库存[J].管理世界,2015(4):126-136.Li H, Tang L M. Transportation infrastructure investment, space spill over effects and corporate inventories[J].Management World, 2015(4):126-136.
[16]张学良.中国交通基础设施与经济增长的区域比较分析[J].财经研究,2007(8):51-63.Zhang X L. Regional comparative analysis on the relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth in China[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2007(8):51-63.
[17]唐东波.挤入还是挤出:中国基础设施投资对私人投资的影响研究[J].金融研究,2015(8):31-45.Tang D B. Crowding in or crowding out:A study on the impact of infrastructure investment on private investment in China[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2015(8):31-45.
[18]Heckman J J. Sample selection bias as a specification error[J]. Econometrica, 1979, 47(1):153-161.
[19]Dehejia R H, Wahba S. Propensity score-matching methods for nonexperimental causal studies[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 2002, 84(1):151-161.
[20]毛其淋,许家云.中国对外直接投资如何影响了企业加成率:事实与机制[J].世界经济,2016, 39(6):77-99.Mao Q L, Xu J Y. How outward foreign direct investment affects Chinese manufacturing firms'markups:Facts and mechanisms[J]. The Journal of World Economy, 2016, 39(6):77-99.
[21]叶阿忠,陈晓玲.FDI,自主创新与经济增长的时空脉冲分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017, 37(2):353-364.Ye A Z, Chen X L. Impulse response analysis on FDI, innovation and economic growth in time and space[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2017, 37(2):353-364.
[2]Bougheas S, Demetriades P O, Mamuneas T P. Infrastructure, specialization, and economic growth[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics, 2000, 33(2):506-522.
[3]胡吉祥,童英,陈玉宇.国有企业上市对绩效的影响:一种处理效应方法[J].经济学(季刊),2011,10(3):965-988.Hu J X, Tong Y, Chen Y Y. Evaluating the effects of public listing on SOEs'performance in China:A treatment effect approach[J]. China Economic Quarterly, 2011, 10(3):965-988.
[4]Hulten C R, Schwab R M. Public capital formation and the growth of regional manufacturing industries[J].National Tax Journal, 1991:121-134.
[5]Canning D, Pedroni P. Infrastructure and long run economic growth[J]. Economic Research Journal, 1999:22-25.
[6]刘秉镰,武鹏,刘玉海.交通基础设施与中国全要素生产率增长——基于省域数据的空间面板计量分析[J].中国工业经济,2010(3):54-64.Liu B L, Wu P, Liu Y H. Transportation infrastructure and the increase in TFP in China:Spatial econometric analysis on provincial panel data[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2010(3):54-64.
[7]张学良.中国交通基础设施促进了区域经济增长吗——兼论交通基础设施的空间溢出效应[J].中国社会科学,2012(3):60-77.Zhang X L. Has transport infrastructure promoted regional economic growth? With an analysis of the spatial spill over effects of transport infrastructure[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2012(3):60-77.
[8]吴清华,冯中朝,何红英.农村基础设施对农业生产率的影响:基于要素投入的视角[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(12):3164-3170.Wu Q H, Feng Z C, He H Y. The influence of rural infrastructure on agricultural productivity:A view based on factor input[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2015, 35(12):3164-3170.
[9]Garcia-Mila T, McGuire T J, Porter R H. The effect of public capital in state-level production functions reconsidered[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1996:177-180.
[10]Holtz-Eakin D, Schwartz A E. Spatial productivity spill overs from public infrastructure:Evidence from state highways[J]. International Tax and Public Finance, 1995, 2(3):459-468.
[11]刘生龙,胡鞍钢.基础设施的外部性在中国的检验:1988-2007[J].经济研究,2010, 45(3):4-15.Liu S L, Hu A G. Test on the externality of infrastructure in China:1988-2007[J]. Economic Research Journal,2010, 45(3):4-15.
[12]刘生龙,胡鞍钢.交通基础设施与经济增长:中国区域差距的视角[J].中国工业经济,2010(4):14-23.Liu S L, Hu A G. Transport infrastructure and economic growth:Perspective from China's regional disparities[J].China Industrial Economics, 2010(4):14-23.
[13]张克中,陶东杰.交通基础设施的经济分布效应——来自高铁开通的证据[J].经济学动态,2016(6):62-73.Zhang K Z, Tao D J. Economic distribution effect of transportation infrastructure:Evidence from the opening of high speed rail[J]. Economic Perspectives, 2016(6):62-73.
[14]Qin Y. No county left behind? The distributional impact of high-speed rail upgrades in China[J]. Journal of Economic Geography, 2017, 17(3):489-520.
[15]李涵,唐丽淼.交通基础设施投资,空间溢出效应与企业库存[J].管理世界,2015(4):126-136.Li H, Tang L M. Transportation infrastructure investment, space spill over effects and corporate inventories[J].Management World, 2015(4):126-136.
[16]张学良.中国交通基础设施与经济增长的区域比较分析[J].财经研究,2007(8):51-63.Zhang X L. Regional comparative analysis on the relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth in China[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2007(8):51-63.
[17]唐东波.挤入还是挤出:中国基础设施投资对私人投资的影响研究[J].金融研究,2015(8):31-45.Tang D B. Crowding in or crowding out:A study on the impact of infrastructure investment on private investment in China[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2015(8):31-45.
[18]Heckman J J. Sample selection bias as a specification error[J]. Econometrica, 1979, 47(1):153-161.
[19]Dehejia R H, Wahba S. Propensity score-matching methods for nonexperimental causal studies[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 2002, 84(1):151-161.
[20]毛其淋,许家云.中国对外直接投资如何影响了企业加成率:事实与机制[J].世界经济,2016, 39(6):77-99.Mao Q L, Xu J Y. How outward foreign direct investment affects Chinese manufacturing firms'markups:Facts and mechanisms[J]. The Journal of World Economy, 2016, 39(6):77-99.
[21]叶阿忠,陈晓玲.FDI,自主创新与经济增长的时空脉冲分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017, 37(2):353-364.Ye A Z, Chen X L. Impulse response analysis on FDI, innovation and economic growth in time and space[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2017, 37(2):353-364.
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