生产性服务业集聚如何促进产业结构升级?——基于集聚外部性与城市规模约束的实证分析
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摘要
文章构建了生产性服务业集聚与产业结构升级的理论分析框架,并基于中国城市数据,运用动态空间面板模型和门槛面板模型进行了实证检验。研究发现,生产性服务业集聚主要通过Porter外部性促进了产业结构升级,而生产性服务业集聚的MAR外部性和Jacobs外部性对产业结构升级存在显著的抑制效应。但生产性服务业集聚对产业结构升级的影响受制于城市规模:当城市规模分别超过151.51万人和154.07万人的规模门槛时,生产性服务业集聚的MAR外部性和Jacobs外部性对产业结构升级的"抑制效应"将转化为"促进效应";而生产性服务业集聚的Porter外部性对产业结构升级的"促进效应"会随着城市规模扩大而增强,也证实了生产性服务业集聚在促进产业结构升级方面存在明显的"大城市优势"。
This paper constructs a theoretical framework for producer service industry agglomeration on industrial structural upgrading. Based on the data of China's cities, this paper use the dynamic spatial panel model and the threshold panel model to test the mechanism and framework. It is found that producer service industry agglomeration mainly promotes industrial structural through the externalities of Porter, while the MAR externality and Jacobs externality of producer service industry have a significant suppression effect on industrial structural upgrading. But the effect of producer service industry agglomeration on industrial structural upgrading is subject to the constraints of the scale of cities. When the scale of a city exceeds the threshold of 1.5151 million or 1.5407 million, the suppression effect of MAR externality and Jacobs externalities of producer service industry agglomeration on the industrial structure will be transformed into promoting effect. The promotion effect of the Porter externality of the industrial service industry on industrial structural upgrading will increase with the continuous expansion of the scale of cities, thus confirming the existence of big city advantages.
This paper constructs a theoretical framework for producer service industry agglomeration on industrial structural upgrading. Based on the data of China's cities, this paper use the dynamic spatial panel model and the threshold panel model to test the mechanism and framework. It is found that producer service industry agglomeration mainly promotes industrial structural through the externalities of Porter, while the MAR externality and Jacobs externality of producer service industry have a significant suppression effect on industrial structural upgrading. But the effect of producer service industry agglomeration on industrial structural upgrading is subject to the constraints of the scale of cities. When the scale of a city exceeds the threshold of 1.5151 million or 1.5407 million, the suppression effect of MAR externality and Jacobs externalities of producer service industry agglomeration on the industrial structure will be transformed into promoting effect. The promotion effect of the Porter externality of the industrial service industry on industrial structural upgrading will increase with the continuous expansion of the scale of cities, thus confirming the existence of big city advantages.
引文
蔡昉,2013: “中国经济增长如何转向全要素生产率驱动型”,《中国社会科学》,2013,1:56—71。
干春晖、郑若谷、余典范,2011:“中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响”,《经济研究》,2011,5:4—16。
柯善咨、赵曜,2014:“产业结构、城市规模与中国城市生产率”,《经济研究》,2014,4:76—88。
蓝庆新、陈超凡,2013:“新型城镇化推动产业结构升级了吗?——基于中国省际面板数据的空间计量研究”,《财经研究》,2013,12:57—71。
刘胜、顾乃华,2015:“行政垄断、生产性服务业集聚与城市工业污染——来自260个地级及以上城市的经验证据”,《财经研究》,2015,11:95—107。
谭洪波,2013:“细分贸易成本对中国制造业和服务空间集聚影响的实证研究”,《中国工业经济》,2013,9:147—159。
宣烨,2012:“生产性服务业空间集聚与制造业效率提升——基于空间外溢效应的实证研究”,《财贸经济》,2012,4:121—128。
杨仁发,2013:“产业集聚与地区工资差距——基于我国269个城市的实证研究”,《管理世界》,2013,8:41—52。
于斌斌,2017:“生产性服务业集聚能提高制造业生产率吗?——基于行业、地区和城市异质性视角的分析”,《南开经济研究》,2017,2:112—132。
于斌斌、金刚,2014:“中国城市结构调整与模式选择的空间溢出效应”,《中国工业经济》,2014,2:31—44。
余壮雄、杨扬,2014:“大城市的生产率优势:集聚与选择”,《世界经济》,2014,10:31—51。
Arrow, K.J., 1962.“The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing.” The Review of Economic Studies. 29(3):155-173.
Bas, M., 2014. “Does Services Liberalization Affect Manufacturing Firms' Export Performance? Evidence from India.” Journal of Comparative Economics. 42(3):569-589.
Boschma, R., A.Minondo, and M.Navarro, 2013. “The Emergence and Industries at the Regional Level in Spain:A Proximity Approach Based on Product Relatedness.” Economic Geography. 89(1):29-51.
Cainelli, G., A.Fracasso, and G.V.Marzetti, 2014. “Spatial Agglomeration and Productivity in Italy:A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach.” Papers in Regional Science. 93(3):1-29.
Combes, P.P., G.Duranton, L.Gobillon, D.Puga, and S.Roux, 2012. “Productivity Advantages of Large Cities:Distinguishing Agglomeration from Firm Selection.” Econometrics. 80(6):2543-2594.
Drucker, J., and E.Feser, 2012. “Regional Industrial Structure and Agglomeration Economies:An Analysis of Productivity in Three Manufacturing Industries.” Regional Science and Urban Economics. 42(1-2):1-14.
Elhorst, J.P., 2012. “Dynamic Spatial Panels:Models, Methods, and Inferences.” Journal of Geographical System. 14(1):5-28.
Feser, E., 2002. “Tracing the Sources of Local External Economies.” Urban Studies. 39(4-13):2485-2506.
Glaeser, E.L., H.D.Kallal, J.A.Scheinkman, and A.Shleifer, 1992. “Growth in Cities.” Journal of Political Economy. 100(6):1126-1152.
Hansen, B.E., 2000. “Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation.” Econometrica. 68(3):575-603.
Hanssens, H., B.Derudder,and F. Witlox, 2013. “Are Advanced Producer Services Connectors for Regional Economies?An Exploration of the Geographies of Advanced Producer Service Procurement in Belgium.” Geoforum. 47(2):12-21.
Jacobs, J., 1969. The Economy of Cities.New York:Vintage.
Jacobs, W., H.R.A.Koster, and O.F.Van, 2014. “Co-agglomeration of Knowledge-intensive Business Services and Multinational Enterprises.” Journal of Economic Geography. 14(2):443-475.
Ketels, C., 2013. “Recent Research on Competitiveness and Clusters:What are the Implication for Reginal Policy?” Cambridge Journal of Regions.6(2):269-284.
Melo, P.C., D.J.Graham, D.Levinson, and S.Aarabi, 2017. “Agglomeration,Accessibility and Productivity:Evidence for Large Metropolitan Areas in the US.” Urban Studies.54(1):179-195.
Parkinson, M., R.Meegan, and J.Karecha, 2015. “City Size and Economic Performance:Is Bigger Better,Small more Beautiful or Middling Marvellous? ” European Planning Studies.23(6):1054-1068.
Porteous, D.J., 1995. The Geography of Finance:Spatial Dimensions of Intermediary Behaviors. Aldershot:Avebury Press.
Porter, M.E., 1990. The Competitive Advantage of Nations. New York:Free Press.
Romer, P.M., 1986. “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth.” Journal of Political Economy.94(5):1002-1037.
Winters, M.S., A.G.Karim, and B. Martawardya, 2014. “Public Service Provision under Conditions of Insufficient Citizen Demand:Insights from the Urban Sanitation Sector in Indonesia.” World Development. 60:31-42.
(1)本文设定不同教育水平的受教育年限:小学为6年、初中为9年、高中为12年、大专以上为16年。然后,以各受教育水平在人口中的比例为权数,计算得到各地区的平均受教育年限。
(2)通过对地理距离的计算发现,306公里是中国城市之间最小的“门槛距离”,即在不小于该距离的情况下,才能实现每一个城市都至少有一个邻近的城市。
(3)受篇幅限制,本文并未给出LISA集聚图,仅报告结果,有需要的读者可向作者索要。
干春晖、郑若谷、余典范,2011:“中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响”,《经济研究》,2011,5:4—16。
柯善咨、赵曜,2014:“产业结构、城市规模与中国城市生产率”,《经济研究》,2014,4:76—88。
蓝庆新、陈超凡,2013:“新型城镇化推动产业结构升级了吗?——基于中国省际面板数据的空间计量研究”,《财经研究》,2013,12:57—71。
刘胜、顾乃华,2015:“行政垄断、生产性服务业集聚与城市工业污染——来自260个地级及以上城市的经验证据”,《财经研究》,2015,11:95—107。
谭洪波,2013:“细分贸易成本对中国制造业和服务空间集聚影响的实证研究”,《中国工业经济》,2013,9:147—159。
宣烨,2012:“生产性服务业空间集聚与制造业效率提升——基于空间外溢效应的实证研究”,《财贸经济》,2012,4:121—128。
杨仁发,2013:“产业集聚与地区工资差距——基于我国269个城市的实证研究”,《管理世界》,2013,8:41—52。
于斌斌,2017:“生产性服务业集聚能提高制造业生产率吗?——基于行业、地区和城市异质性视角的分析”,《南开经济研究》,2017,2:112—132。
于斌斌、金刚,2014:“中国城市结构调整与模式选择的空间溢出效应”,《中国工业经济》,2014,2:31—44。
余壮雄、杨扬,2014:“大城市的生产率优势:集聚与选择”,《世界经济》,2014,10:31—51。
Arrow, K.J., 1962.“The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing.” The Review of Economic Studies. 29(3):155-173.
Bas, M., 2014. “Does Services Liberalization Affect Manufacturing Firms' Export Performance? Evidence from India.” Journal of Comparative Economics. 42(3):569-589.
Boschma, R., A.Minondo, and M.Navarro, 2013. “The Emergence and Industries at the Regional Level in Spain:A Proximity Approach Based on Product Relatedness.” Economic Geography. 89(1):29-51.
Cainelli, G., A.Fracasso, and G.V.Marzetti, 2014. “Spatial Agglomeration and Productivity in Italy:A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach.” Papers in Regional Science. 93(3):1-29.
Combes, P.P., G.Duranton, L.Gobillon, D.Puga, and S.Roux, 2012. “Productivity Advantages of Large Cities:Distinguishing Agglomeration from Firm Selection.” Econometrics. 80(6):2543-2594.
Drucker, J., and E.Feser, 2012. “Regional Industrial Structure and Agglomeration Economies:An Analysis of Productivity in Three Manufacturing Industries.” Regional Science and Urban Economics. 42(1-2):1-14.
Elhorst, J.P., 2012. “Dynamic Spatial Panels:Models, Methods, and Inferences.” Journal of Geographical System. 14(1):5-28.
Feser, E., 2002. “Tracing the Sources of Local External Economies.” Urban Studies. 39(4-13):2485-2506.
Glaeser, E.L., H.D.Kallal, J.A.Scheinkman, and A.Shleifer, 1992. “Growth in Cities.” Journal of Political Economy. 100(6):1126-1152.
Hansen, B.E., 2000. “Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation.” Econometrica. 68(3):575-603.
Hanssens, H., B.Derudder,and F. Witlox, 2013. “Are Advanced Producer Services Connectors for Regional Economies?An Exploration of the Geographies of Advanced Producer Service Procurement in Belgium.” Geoforum. 47(2):12-21.
Jacobs, J., 1969. The Economy of Cities.New York:Vintage.
Jacobs, W., H.R.A.Koster, and O.F.Van, 2014. “Co-agglomeration of Knowledge-intensive Business Services and Multinational Enterprises.” Journal of Economic Geography. 14(2):443-475.
Ketels, C., 2013. “Recent Research on Competitiveness and Clusters:What are the Implication for Reginal Policy?” Cambridge Journal of Regions.6(2):269-284.
Melo, P.C., D.J.Graham, D.Levinson, and S.Aarabi, 2017. “Agglomeration,Accessibility and Productivity:Evidence for Large Metropolitan Areas in the US.” Urban Studies.54(1):179-195.
Parkinson, M., R.Meegan, and J.Karecha, 2015. “City Size and Economic Performance:Is Bigger Better,Small more Beautiful or Middling Marvellous? ” European Planning Studies.23(6):1054-1068.
Porteous, D.J., 1995. The Geography of Finance:Spatial Dimensions of Intermediary Behaviors. Aldershot:Avebury Press.
Porter, M.E., 1990. The Competitive Advantage of Nations. New York:Free Press.
Romer, P.M., 1986. “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth.” Journal of Political Economy.94(5):1002-1037.
Winters, M.S., A.G.Karim, and B. Martawardya, 2014. “Public Service Provision under Conditions of Insufficient Citizen Demand:Insights from the Urban Sanitation Sector in Indonesia.” World Development. 60:31-42.
(1)本文设定不同教育水平的受教育年限:小学为6年、初中为9年、高中为12年、大专以上为16年。然后,以各受教育水平在人口中的比例为权数,计算得到各地区的平均受教育年限。
(2)通过对地理距离的计算发现,306公里是中国城市之间最小的“门槛距离”,即在不小于该距离的情况下,才能实现每一个城市都至少有一个邻近的城市。
(3)受篇幅限制,本文并未给出LISA集聚图,仅报告结果,有需要的读者可向作者索要。