中国农产品出口东盟市场的影响因素研究——基于二元边际的实证研究
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摘要
随着中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立和发展,中国与东盟的农产品贸易也日益紧密。本文根据联合国商品贸易数据库HS-92版本的六分位农产品数据,结合企业异质性理论发现,中国农产品出口东盟市场的集约边际小于扩展边际,但集约边际的贡献率高于扩展边际的贡献率。实证结果表明:各变量对集约边际和扩展边际的影响程度不同,贸易成本和进口国相对农业生产率对二元边际的影响均为负,进口国的相对GDP、农业经济规模和金融危机对中国农产品出口东盟市场的集约边际具有正向作用,而对扩展边际具有负向作用。
With the establishment and development of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, agricultural trade between China and ASEAN is developing rapidly and is increasingly close. Based on the HS92 six-digit data of Chinas' agricultural exports to the ASEAN market from 2000 to 2015, and combined with enterprise heterogeneity theory,the research shows the value of intensive margin is less than extensive margin, but the contribution rate of intensive margin is higher than extensive margin. The empirical results show that the influencing degree of each variable on intensive and extensive margin is different. The impact of trade costs and the relative productivity of binary margin are negative, the relative GDP of the importing country, the scale of the agricultural economy and the financial crisis have a positive effect on the intensive margin of Chinas' agricultural exports to the ASEAN market, but have a negative effect on the extensive margin.
With the establishment and development of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, agricultural trade between China and ASEAN is developing rapidly and is increasingly close. Based on the HS92 six-digit data of Chinas' agricultural exports to the ASEAN market from 2000 to 2015, and combined with enterprise heterogeneity theory,the research shows the value of intensive margin is less than extensive margin, but the contribution rate of intensive margin is higher than extensive margin. The empirical results show that the influencing degree of each variable on intensive and extensive margin is different. The impact of trade costs and the relative productivity of binary margin are negative, the relative GDP of the importing country, the scale of the agricultural economy and the financial crisis have a positive effect on the intensive margin of Chinas' agricultural exports to the ASEAN market, but have a negative effect on the extensive margin.
引文
[1]Andersson, M. Entry Costs and Adjustments on the Extensive Margin—An Analysis of How Familiarity Breeds Exports[R]. Stockholm:Royal Institute of Technology, 2006:1~21.
[2]Bergin, P. R., Lin, C. Exchange Rate Regimes and the Extensive Margin Trade[R]. NBER Working Paper, 2008.
[3]Chaney, T. Distorted Gravity:The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade[J]. The American Economic Review, 2008, 98(4).
[4]Felbermayr, G. J.,Kohler, W. Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World[J]. Review of World Economics, 2006, 142(4).
[5]Helpman, P., Melitz, M., Rubinstein, Y. Estimating Trade Flows:Trading Partners and Trading Volumes[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2008, 23(2).
[6]Hummels, D., Klenow, P. L. The Variety and Quality of a Nations’ Export[J].American Economic Review,2005, 95(3).
[7]Kancs, A. Trade Growth in a Heterogeneous Firm Model:Evidence from South Eastern Europe[J]. The World Economy, 2007, 30(7).
[8]Melitz, M. J. The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity[J].Econometrica, 2003, 71(6).
[9]杜运苏,陈勇兵,陈宇媚,周世民.贸易成本、企业出口动态与出口增长的二元边际——基于中国出口企业微观数据:2000~2005[J].经济学(季刊), 2012, 11(4).
[10]范爱军,刘馨遥.中国与东亚和美国贸易差额联动效应分析[J].南开经济研究, 2010,(6).
[11]郭俊芳,武拉平.中国农产品出口增长的二元边际及影响因素[J].经济问题探索, 2015,(1).
[12]刘义,阳素文.中国农产品出口增长的二元边际及其影响因素——以蔬菜出口为例[J].产经评论,2014,(3).
[13]马焕杰.中国—东盟区域经济一体化(CAFTA)对中国出口的二元边际的影响的实证研究——来自HS-6位数产品的证据[J].中南财经政法大学研究生学报, 2012,(5).
[14]钱学锋,熊平.中国出口增长的二元边际及其因素决定[J].经济研究, 2010,(1).
[15]谭晶荣,刘莉,王瑞,叶婷婷.中越农产品出口增长的二元边际分析[J].农业经济问题, 2013,(10).
(1)本文所指农产品按《商品名称及编码协调制度》进行界定,即涵盖第1~24章的农产品和第29、33、35、38、41、43、50、51、52 、53章的部分产品。
(2)即一国某一产业出口在总出口的比例与该国该产业进口在总进口中的比例之差,具体计算公式为NRCA=X_i~k/X_i-M_i~k/M_i。其中,X_i~k指i国家的k产品出口额,Xi指i国家的出口总额;M_i~k是i国家的k产品进口额,M_i是i国家的进口总额。该指数越高,国际竞争力越强;该指数越低,国际竞争力越弱。指数值大于0表示存在竞争力,指数值小于0表示存在竞争劣势,指数值等于0表示贸易自我平衡。
(1)因文章篇幅限制,文中省略中国农产品出口东盟十国的集约边际和扩展边际计算结果,如有需要,可向作者索取。
(1)该数据来源于世界银行,以2005年不变价美元计算。
(2)该数据来源于世界银行,以2005年不变价美元计算。
(1)数据来源于世界银行。
[2]Bergin, P. R., Lin, C. Exchange Rate Regimes and the Extensive Margin Trade[R]. NBER Working Paper, 2008.
[3]Chaney, T. Distorted Gravity:The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade[J]. The American Economic Review, 2008, 98(4).
[4]Felbermayr, G. J.,Kohler, W. Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World[J]. Review of World Economics, 2006, 142(4).
[5]Helpman, P., Melitz, M., Rubinstein, Y. Estimating Trade Flows:Trading Partners and Trading Volumes[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2008, 23(2).
[6]Hummels, D., Klenow, P. L. The Variety and Quality of a Nations’ Export[J].American Economic Review,2005, 95(3).
[7]Kancs, A. Trade Growth in a Heterogeneous Firm Model:Evidence from South Eastern Europe[J]. The World Economy, 2007, 30(7).
[8]Melitz, M. J. The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity[J].Econometrica, 2003, 71(6).
[9]杜运苏,陈勇兵,陈宇媚,周世民.贸易成本、企业出口动态与出口增长的二元边际——基于中国出口企业微观数据:2000~2005[J].经济学(季刊), 2012, 11(4).
[10]范爱军,刘馨遥.中国与东亚和美国贸易差额联动效应分析[J].南开经济研究, 2010,(6).
[11]郭俊芳,武拉平.中国农产品出口增长的二元边际及影响因素[J].经济问题探索, 2015,(1).
[12]刘义,阳素文.中国农产品出口增长的二元边际及其影响因素——以蔬菜出口为例[J].产经评论,2014,(3).
[13]马焕杰.中国—东盟区域经济一体化(CAFTA)对中国出口的二元边际的影响的实证研究——来自HS-6位数产品的证据[J].中南财经政法大学研究生学报, 2012,(5).
[14]钱学锋,熊平.中国出口增长的二元边际及其因素决定[J].经济研究, 2010,(1).
[15]谭晶荣,刘莉,王瑞,叶婷婷.中越农产品出口增长的二元边际分析[J].农业经济问题, 2013,(10).
(1)本文所指农产品按《商品名称及编码协调制度》进行界定,即涵盖第1~24章的农产品和第29、33、35、38、41、43、50、51、52 、53章的部分产品。
(2)即一国某一产业出口在总出口的比例与该国该产业进口在总进口中的比例之差,具体计算公式为NRCA=X_i~k/X_i-M_i~k/M_i。其中,X_i~k指i国家的k产品出口额,Xi指i国家的出口总额;M_i~k是i国家的k产品进口额,M_i是i国家的进口总额。该指数越高,国际竞争力越强;该指数越低,国际竞争力越弱。指数值大于0表示存在竞争力,指数值小于0表示存在竞争劣势,指数值等于0表示贸易自我平衡。
(1)因文章篇幅限制,文中省略中国农产品出口东盟十国的集约边际和扩展边际计算结果,如有需要,可向作者索取。
(1)该数据来源于世界银行,以2005年不变价美元计算。
(2)该数据来源于世界银行,以2005年不变价美元计算。
(1)数据来源于世界银行。
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