基于空间自回归和地理加权回归模型的佛山市中心城区河网水系演变驱动分析
|
摘要
为定量探究城市河流变化驱动成因,以2005～2010年佛山市中心城区为例,分析了河网水系演变及其驱动因子,根据河网水系变化与其驱动因子间一对多的映射关系,借助空间自回归和地理加权回归模型,分别从整体和局部分析了两者间的统计关系,结果表明:(1)末级河流长度减少量占各级河流总变化量约92.3%,变化最为显著,而城镇用地对水田、工业用地对水域的侵占以及农业活动则是影响末级河流的主要驱动因子;(2)整体来看,末级河流受建设用地扩张,尤其是工业用地扩张的负面影响程度最大;局部来看,各驱动因子的负面影响程度在不同空间位置上存在差异,以水田-城镇用地因子为例,其在罗村、老城区和桂城的交界区域以及南庄、罗村和老城区的交界区域负面影响程度较大;(3)空间自回归模型对区域河网水系变化与其驱动因子间的关系有整体、直观的把握,地理加权回归模型则能够描述驱动因子影响的空间非平稳性,有利于获取局部信息,结合两种模型的特点能够更加全面地刻画河网水系演变的驱动成因。
In order to quantitatively explore the causes of urban river changes, this paper took the central urban district of Foshan as an example to analyze the evolution of river network and its driving factors. According to the one-to-many mapping relationship between the change of river network and its driving factors, the spatial auto-regression and geographic weighted regression models were used to analyze the statistical relationships wholly and partially. The results show that:(1) The IV-order rivers have the most dramatic changes and its length reduction account for about 92.3% of the total-order rivers changes. And the encroachment of urban land on paddy field and industrial land on waters, the agricultural activities are the major driving forces affecting the IV-order rivers.(2) As a whole, the IV-order rivers are deeply affected by the expansion of construction land, especially the expansion of industrial land. In the local view, the negative effects of each driving factor vary in different spatial positions. Taking paddy field and urban land-use factors as an example, its negative effects are significant on the border areas among Luocun, old town and Guicheng, as well as on the border areas among Nanzhuang, Luocun and old town.(3) The spatial auto-regression has advantage on the relationship between the changes of river network and its driving factors in a whole, while the geographic weighted regression model can describe the spatial nonstationarity of the influence of driving factors, and it is beneficial for obtaining local information.The two combined models can more fully reveal the causes of the evolution of river network.
In order to quantitatively explore the causes of urban river changes, this paper took the central urban district of Foshan as an example to analyze the evolution of river network and its driving factors. According to the one-to-many mapping relationship between the change of river network and its driving factors, the spatial auto-regression and geographic weighted regression models were used to analyze the statistical relationships wholly and partially. The results show that:(1) The IV-order rivers have the most dramatic changes and its length reduction account for about 92.3% of the total-order rivers changes. And the encroachment of urban land on paddy field and industrial land on waters, the agricultural activities are the major driving forces affecting the IV-order rivers.(2) As a whole, the IV-order rivers are deeply affected by the expansion of construction land, especially the expansion of industrial land. In the local view, the negative effects of each driving factor vary in different spatial positions. Taking paddy field and urban land-use factors as an example, its negative effects are significant on the border areas among Luocun, old town and Guicheng, as well as on the border areas among Nanzhuang, Luocun and old town.(3) The spatial auto-regression has advantage on the relationship between the changes of river network and its driving factors in a whole, while the geographic weighted regression model can describe the spatial nonstationarity of the influence of driving factors, and it is beneficial for obtaining local information.The two combined models can more fully reveal the causes of the evolution of river network.
引文
[1]李原园,郦建强,李宗礼,等.河湖水系连通研究的若干问题与挑战[J].资源科学,2011,33(03):386-391.(LI Yuanyuan,LI Jianqiang,LIZongli,et al.Issues and challenges for the study of the interconnected river system network[J].Resources Science,2011,33(03):386-391.(in Chinese))
[2]韩龙飞,许有鹏,杨柳,等.近50年长三角地区水系时空变化及其驱动机制[J].地理学报,2015,70(05):819-827.(HAN Longfei,XUYoupeng,YANG Liu,et al.Temporal and spatial change of stream structure in Yangtze River Delta and its driving forces during1960s-2010s[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(05):819-827.(in Chinese))
[3]Chin A.Urban transformation of river landscapes in a global context[J].Geomorphology,2006,79(3):460-487.
[4]Shixia Zhang,Yakun Guo,Ziwen Wang.Correlation between flood frequency and geomorphologic complexity of rivers network-a case study of Hangzhou China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,527:113-118.
[5]Hammer T R.Stream channel enlargement due to urbanization[J].Water Resources Research,1972,8(6):1530-1540.
[6]Hirsch R M,Walker J F,Day J C,et al.The influence of man on hydrologic systems[J].Geological Society of America,1990,329-359.
[7]Stammler K L,Yates A G,Bailey R C.Buried streams:uncovering a potential threat to aquatic ecosystems[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2013,114:37-41.
[8]Jason P.Julian,Nicholas A.Wilgruber,Kirsten M.de Beurs,et al.Long-term impacts of land cover changes on stream channel loss[J].Science of the Total Environment,2015,537:399-410.
[9]冯平,冯焱.河流形态特征的分维计算方法[J].地理学报,1997,52(4):324-330.(FENG Ping,FENG Yan.Calculation on fractal dimension of river morphology[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1997,52(4):324-330.(in Chinese))
[10]刘怀湘,王兆印.典型河网形态特征与分布[J].水利学报,2007,38(11):1354-1357.(LIU Huaixiang,WANG Zhaoyin.Morphological feature and distribution of typical river networks[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2007,38(11):1354-1357.(in Chinese))
[11]邓晓军,许有鹏,韩龙飞,等.城市化背景下嘉兴市河流水系的时空变化[J].地理学报,2016,71(01):75-85.(DENG Xiaojun,XUYoupeng,HAN Longfei,et al.Spatial-temporal changes of river systems in Jiaxing under the background of urbanization[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(01):75-85.(in Chinese))
[12]周洪建,史培军,王静爱,等.近30年来深圳河网变化及其生态效应分析.地理学报,2008,63(9):969-980.(ZHOU Hongjian,SHIPeijun,WANG Jing'ai,et al.River network change and its ecological effects in Shenzhen region in recent 30 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,63(9):969-980.(in Chinese))
[13]陈云霞,许有鹏,付维军.浙东沿海城镇化对河网水系的影响[J].水科学进展,2007,(01):68-73.(CHEN Yunxia,XU Youpeng,FUWeijun.Influences of urbanization on river network in the coastal areas of east Zhejiang province[J].Advances in Water Sciences,2007,18(01):68-73.(in Chinese))
[14]徐慧,杨姝君.太湖平原圩区河网演变模式探析[J].水科学进展,2013,24(03):366-371.(XU Hui,YANG Shujun.Exploring the evolution of river networks in plain polders of Taihu Lake basin[J].Advances in Water Sciences,2013,24(03):366-371.(in Chinese))
[15]韩龙飞,许有鹏,邵玉龙,等.城市化对水系结构及其连通性的影响---以秦淮河中、下游为例[J].湖泊科学,2013,25(3):335-341.(HAN Longfei,XU Youpeng,SHAO Yulong,et al.Effect of urbanization on the stream structure and connectivity-a case study in the mid-lower reaches of the Qinhuai River[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2013,25(3):335-341.(in Chinese))
[16]Anselin Luc.Spatial Econometrics:Methods and Models[M].Springer Science&Business Media,2013.
[17]谢花林,刘黎明,李波,等.土地利用变化的多尺度空间自相关分析---以内蒙古翁牛特旗为例[J].地理学报,2006,61(04):389-400.(XIE Hualin,LIU Liming,LI Bo,et al.Spatial autocorrelation analysis of multi-scale land-use changes:a case study in Ongniud Banner,Inner Mongolia[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2006,61(04):389-400.(in Chinese))
[18]陈刚强,李映辉,胡湘菊.基于空间集聚的中国入境旅游区域经济效应分析[J].地理研究,2014,33(1):167-178.(CHEN Gangqiang,LIYinghui,HU Xiangju.Regional economic effects of inbound tourism in China based on the perspective of spatial agglomeration[J].Geographical Research,2014,33(1):167-178.(in Chinese))
[19]Anselin L,Florax R J G M.New Directions in Spatial Econometrics[M].Springer Science&Business Media,2012.
[20]Brunsdon C,Fotheringham A S,Charlton M.Geographically weighted summary statistics-a framework for localised exploratory data analysis[J].Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,2002,26(6):501-524.
[21]Fotheringham A S,Brunsdon C,Charlton M.Geographically Weighted Regression:the Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationships[M].John Wiley&Sons,2003.
[22]王秋香.佛山市耕地变化驱动机理及空间布局优化研究[D].南京大学,2011.(WANG Qiuxiang.Study on Cultivated Land Change Driving Mechanism and Spatial Distribution Optimization of Foshan[D].Nanjing University,2011.(in Chinese))
[2]韩龙飞,许有鹏,杨柳,等.近50年长三角地区水系时空变化及其驱动机制[J].地理学报,2015,70(05):819-827.(HAN Longfei,XUYoupeng,YANG Liu,et al.Temporal and spatial change of stream structure in Yangtze River Delta and its driving forces during1960s-2010s[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(05):819-827.(in Chinese))
[3]Chin A.Urban transformation of river landscapes in a global context[J].Geomorphology,2006,79(3):460-487.
[4]Shixia Zhang,Yakun Guo,Ziwen Wang.Correlation between flood frequency and geomorphologic complexity of rivers network-a case study of Hangzhou China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,527:113-118.
[5]Hammer T R.Stream channel enlargement due to urbanization[J].Water Resources Research,1972,8(6):1530-1540.
[6]Hirsch R M,Walker J F,Day J C,et al.The influence of man on hydrologic systems[J].Geological Society of America,1990,329-359.
[7]Stammler K L,Yates A G,Bailey R C.Buried streams:uncovering a potential threat to aquatic ecosystems[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2013,114:37-41.
[8]Jason P.Julian,Nicholas A.Wilgruber,Kirsten M.de Beurs,et al.Long-term impacts of land cover changes on stream channel loss[J].Science of the Total Environment,2015,537:399-410.
[9]冯平,冯焱.河流形态特征的分维计算方法[J].地理学报,1997,52(4):324-330.(FENG Ping,FENG Yan.Calculation on fractal dimension of river morphology[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1997,52(4):324-330.(in Chinese))
[10]刘怀湘,王兆印.典型河网形态特征与分布[J].水利学报,2007,38(11):1354-1357.(LIU Huaixiang,WANG Zhaoyin.Morphological feature and distribution of typical river networks[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2007,38(11):1354-1357.(in Chinese))
[11]邓晓军,许有鹏,韩龙飞,等.城市化背景下嘉兴市河流水系的时空变化[J].地理学报,2016,71(01):75-85.(DENG Xiaojun,XUYoupeng,HAN Longfei,et al.Spatial-temporal changes of river systems in Jiaxing under the background of urbanization[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(01):75-85.(in Chinese))
[12]周洪建,史培军,王静爱,等.近30年来深圳河网变化及其生态效应分析.地理学报,2008,63(9):969-980.(ZHOU Hongjian,SHIPeijun,WANG Jing'ai,et al.River network change and its ecological effects in Shenzhen region in recent 30 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,63(9):969-980.(in Chinese))
[13]陈云霞,许有鹏,付维军.浙东沿海城镇化对河网水系的影响[J].水科学进展,2007,(01):68-73.(CHEN Yunxia,XU Youpeng,FUWeijun.Influences of urbanization on river network in the coastal areas of east Zhejiang province[J].Advances in Water Sciences,2007,18(01):68-73.(in Chinese))
[14]徐慧,杨姝君.太湖平原圩区河网演变模式探析[J].水科学进展,2013,24(03):366-371.(XU Hui,YANG Shujun.Exploring the evolution of river networks in plain polders of Taihu Lake basin[J].Advances in Water Sciences,2013,24(03):366-371.(in Chinese))
[15]韩龙飞,许有鹏,邵玉龙,等.城市化对水系结构及其连通性的影响---以秦淮河中、下游为例[J].湖泊科学,2013,25(3):335-341.(HAN Longfei,XU Youpeng,SHAO Yulong,et al.Effect of urbanization on the stream structure and connectivity-a case study in the mid-lower reaches of the Qinhuai River[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2013,25(3):335-341.(in Chinese))
[16]Anselin Luc.Spatial Econometrics:Methods and Models[M].Springer Science&Business Media,2013.
[17]谢花林,刘黎明,李波,等.土地利用变化的多尺度空间自相关分析---以内蒙古翁牛特旗为例[J].地理学报,2006,61(04):389-400.(XIE Hualin,LIU Liming,LI Bo,et al.Spatial autocorrelation analysis of multi-scale land-use changes:a case study in Ongniud Banner,Inner Mongolia[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2006,61(04):389-400.(in Chinese))
[18]陈刚强,李映辉,胡湘菊.基于空间集聚的中国入境旅游区域经济效应分析[J].地理研究,2014,33(1):167-178.(CHEN Gangqiang,LIYinghui,HU Xiangju.Regional economic effects of inbound tourism in China based on the perspective of spatial agglomeration[J].Geographical Research,2014,33(1):167-178.(in Chinese))
[19]Anselin L,Florax R J G M.New Directions in Spatial Econometrics[M].Springer Science&Business Media,2012.
[20]Brunsdon C,Fotheringham A S,Charlton M.Geographically weighted summary statistics-a framework for localised exploratory data analysis[J].Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,2002,26(6):501-524.
[21]Fotheringham A S,Brunsdon C,Charlton M.Geographically Weighted Regression:the Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationships[M].John Wiley&Sons,2003.
[22]王秋香.佛山市耕地变化驱动机理及空间布局优化研究[D].南京大学,2011.(WANG Qiuxiang.Study on Cultivated Land Change Driving Mechanism and Spatial Distribution Optimization of Foshan[D].Nanjing University,2011.(in Chinese))
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |