不同气候稻作区径流及面源污染排放模拟分析
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摘要
在全球气候变暖背景下,开展稻田排水其水文水质对气候变化的响应研究,减少气候变化对农业面源污染及水环境的不利影响,从而为流域水分管理及农业面源污染防控提供依据。以江西省赣抚平原灌区芳溪湖小流域为研究对象,基于构建的灌区水量转化及农业面源污染分布式模拟模型(SWAT模型),对气温升高和降雨增加等气候因子变化下的芳溪湖流域径流及农业面源污染负荷进行模拟,分析气候变化对芳溪湖入湖径流及氮磷排放负荷的影响,结果表明:温度升高,芳溪湖流域径流量减少,稻田氮磷排放减少,但流域出口氮磷排放有增加趋势;降水量增加,芳溪湖流域出口径流量及氮磷排放负荷均呈明显增加趋势;到2050年,芳溪湖流域稻田排水量将增加8.01%,总氮排放将增加8.56%,总磷排放将增加7.30%;流域出口径流量将增加8.14%,总氮排放将增加10.08%,总磷排放将增加9.98%,因农业生产造成的面源污染问题将越来越突出。
Under the background of global climate change,response study of hydrology and quality of paddy field drainage on climate change plays an important role in diminishing the adverse effect of climate change on agricultural non-point source pollution and water environment and improving the basin water management and the agricultural non-point source pollution prevention and control. The Fangxi Lake Basin,located in the Ganfu Plains Irrigation Area in Jiangxi Province,is selected as the study object. Based on the building of irrigation water conversion and agricultural non-point source pollution distributed model SWAT,effect of temperature rise and rainfall increase on runoff and agricultural non-point source pollution discharge is simulated. The results show that the runoff of the Fangxi Lake Basin and the discharge of nitrogen and phosphorous from paddy field decrease with temperature increasing,however,the discharge of nitrogen and phosphorous at the outlet of the basin has increased. The results show that the runoff and the nutrient load increase significantly when the rainfall increases. By2050,the drainage would increase by 8.01%,the TN discharge by 8.56% and the TP discharge by 7.30% on field scale in the Fangxi Lake Basin. In addition,for watershed scale,the runoff would increase by 8.14%,the TN discharge by 10.08% and the TP discharge by 9.98%.The problem of agricultural non-point source pollution became more and more serious in the future.
Under the background of global climate change,response study of hydrology and quality of paddy field drainage on climate change plays an important role in diminishing the adverse effect of climate change on agricultural non-point source pollution and water environment and improving the basin water management and the agricultural non-point source pollution prevention and control. The Fangxi Lake Basin,located in the Ganfu Plains Irrigation Area in Jiangxi Province,is selected as the study object. Based on the building of irrigation water conversion and agricultural non-point source pollution distributed model SWAT,effect of temperature rise and rainfall increase on runoff and agricultural non-point source pollution discharge is simulated. The results show that the runoff of the Fangxi Lake Basin and the discharge of nitrogen and phosphorous from paddy field decrease with temperature increasing,however,the discharge of nitrogen and phosphorous at the outlet of the basin has increased. The results show that the runoff and the nutrient load increase significantly when the rainfall increases. By2050,the drainage would increase by 8.01%,the TN discharge by 8.56% and the TP discharge by 7.30% on field scale in the Fangxi Lake Basin. In addition,for watershed scale,the runoff would increase by 8.14%,the TN discharge by 10.08% and the TP discharge by 9.98%.The problem of agricultural non-point source pollution became more and more serious in the future.
引文
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[2]陈媛,郭秀锐,程水源,等.SWAT模型在三峡库区流域非点源污染模拟的适用性研究[J].安全与环境学报,2012,12(2):146-152.
[3]Tanoh J J,Jourda J P.Assessment of sediment and pollutants in Buyo Lake,Ivory Coast,using SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)Model[J].Journal of Chem-istry and Chemical Engineering,2013,(7):1 054-1 059.
[4]汪朝辉,赵登忠,曹波,等.基于GIS和SWAT模型的清江流域面源污染模拟研究[J].长江科学院院报,2010,27(1):57-61.
[5]代俊峰,崔远来.基于SWAT的灌区分布式水文模型——Ⅰ.模型构建的原理与方法[J].水利学报,2009,40(2):145-152.
[6]谢先红.灌区的变量标度不变性与水循环分布式模拟[D].武汉:武汉大学,2008.
[7]王建鹏,崔远来.水稻灌区水量转化模型及其模拟效率分析[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(1):22-28.
[8]郑捷,李光永,韩振中,等.改进的SWAT模型在平原灌区的应用[J].水利学报,2011,42(1):88-97.
[9]童晓霞,崔远来,赵树君,等.基于改进的SWAT模型农业面源污染变化规律数值模拟[J].长江科学院院报,2015,32(3):89-94.
[10]李硕,赖正清,王桥,等.基于SWAT模型的平原河网区水文过程分布式模拟[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(6):106-112.
[11]Cubasch U Meehl G A.Projections of Future Climate Change[C]∥Houghton J T,Ding Y.Climate Change 2001:The Scientific Basis,Contribution of WGI to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001:527-529.
[12]徐影,丁一汇,赵宗慈.长江中下游地区21世纪气候变化情景预测[J].自然灾害学报,2004,13(1):25-31.