近年来陕西省小麦条锈病流行规律及其与气象条件的关系
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摘要
对陕西省小麦条锈病的发病规律和影响因素进行分析,为陕西省小麦条锈病预报预警、综合防治提供科学依据。基于陕西省2010-2017小麦条锈病调查资料和温度、降水等气象要素资料,利用DPS数据处理系统,采用相关分析法,分析小麦条锈病发生流行监测指标与气象因子的关系,筛选关键时段和气象因子;采用线性回归、非线性回归和逐步回归分析方法,研究陕西省小麦条锈病发生流行规律,建立小麦条锈病发生流行监测指标与气象因子的关系模型。结果表明:近年来,关中、陕南地区条锈病平均始见期分别为4月18日和1月30日,两地区始见期时间顺序都为由西向东逐步推迟,全省条锈病始见期具有提早的趋势。研究期内陕西省小麦条锈病发病程度变化趋势不明显,秋田发病面积具有逐年减少的趋势,而最终病田面积具有逐年增加的趋势。条锈病发生面积扩展过程可用逻辑斯蒂(Logistic)生长曲线来模拟。小麦条锈病始见期的早晚对最终发生面积具有极显著影响,始见期越早最终病田面积越大,始见期越晚最终病田面积越小。冬前条锈病发生面积与最终发生面积的关系不大,初春发生病面积与最终发生面积具有极显著的相关关系。陕西小麦主产区条锈病流行取决于春季菌源传入时间和数量。反映小麦条锈病的指标(始见期、流行速率、发病面积、发病程度)与冬季温度、初春降水量关系密切。冬季温度高,有利于条锈病孢子越冬;初春降水多,空气湿度大有利于条锈病滋生、蔓延和流行。暖冬、初春降水多等有利气象条件是陕西省小麦条锈病流行的外因。
The regularity and influencing factors of wheat stripe rust in Shaanxi Province are analyzed in this paper,which provide a scientific basis for comprehensive prevention and early warning of wheat stripe rust in Shaanxi. Based on the wheat stripe rust monitoring data,meteorological elements such as temperature,precipitation and so on in Shaanxi from 2010 to 2017,this thesis adopt the DPS data processing system and related analysis method to analyze the relationship between meteorological factors and monitoring index of wheat stripe rust epidemic in key period with specific meteorological factors. The method of analysis is as follows: linear regression,nonlinear regression and stepwise regression analysis. After studying on the prevalence of wheat stripe rust in Shaanxi,it had built a relational model between monitoring index for the occurrence of wheat stripe rust and meteorological factors.The results showed that: In recent years,the average beginning period of the stripe rust in central and southern Shaanxi is 18 th April and 30 th January respectively. And time sequence of two regions beginning time is gradually postponed from the west to the East. The beginning stage of stripe rust in the province has come earlier. Trend of wheat stripe rust in Shaanxi Province during the study period change slightly and the area of disease field decrease year by year. But the final area of the disease field increase year after year. The development of the stripe rust area can be simulated by the logical( Logistic) growth curve. The time of initial stage of wheat stripe rust has a very significant impact on final disease area. The earlier the initial stage causes the larger the final disease area,vice versa. The preceding pre-winter rust occurrence area is of less concern about final disease area. But the early spring rust occurrence area has a very significant correlation with final disease area. Index of wheat stripe rust,which is closely related to winter temperature and early spring precipitation( initial stage,prevalence rate,disease area,degree of disease). High temperature in winter help spores of stripe rust survive successfully; more precipitation in the early spring and the air humidity promote the emergence,spread and epidemic of stripe rust. Favorable weather conditions such as warm winter and early spring precipitation are the external cause of the wheat stripe rust epidemic in Shaanxi Province. The initial stage of wheat stripe rust,epidemic rate,area of disease,degree of disease,area expansion process and regression equation of meteorological conditions can be tested and verified in the prediction of incidence of stripe rust.
The regularity and influencing factors of wheat stripe rust in Shaanxi Province are analyzed in this paper,which provide a scientific basis for comprehensive prevention and early warning of wheat stripe rust in Shaanxi. Based on the wheat stripe rust monitoring data,meteorological elements such as temperature,precipitation and so on in Shaanxi from 2010 to 2017,this thesis adopt the DPS data processing system and related analysis method to analyze the relationship between meteorological factors and monitoring index of wheat stripe rust epidemic in key period with specific meteorological factors. The method of analysis is as follows: linear regression,nonlinear regression and stepwise regression analysis. After studying on the prevalence of wheat stripe rust in Shaanxi,it had built a relational model between monitoring index for the occurrence of wheat stripe rust and meteorological factors.The results showed that: In recent years,the average beginning period of the stripe rust in central and southern Shaanxi is 18 th April and 30 th January respectively. And time sequence of two regions beginning time is gradually postponed from the west to the East. The beginning stage of stripe rust in the province has come earlier. Trend of wheat stripe rust in Shaanxi Province during the study period change slightly and the area of disease field decrease year by year. But the final area of the disease field increase year after year. The development of the stripe rust area can be simulated by the logical( Logistic) growth curve. The time of initial stage of wheat stripe rust has a very significant impact on final disease area. The earlier the initial stage causes the larger the final disease area,vice versa. The preceding pre-winter rust occurrence area is of less concern about final disease area. But the early spring rust occurrence area has a very significant correlation with final disease area. Index of wheat stripe rust,which is closely related to winter temperature and early spring precipitation( initial stage,prevalence rate,disease area,degree of disease). High temperature in winter help spores of stripe rust survive successfully; more precipitation in the early spring and the air humidity promote the emergence,spread and epidemic of stripe rust. Favorable weather conditions such as warm winter and early spring precipitation are the external cause of the wheat stripe rust epidemic in Shaanxi Province. The initial stage of wheat stripe rust,epidemic rate,area of disease,degree of disease,area expansion process and regression equation of meteorological conditions can be tested and verified in the prediction of incidence of stripe rust.
引文
[1]王保通,李高宝,李强,等. 2001-2005年陕西省小麦条锈菌生理小种变化动态[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2007,35(3):209-216.
[2]陈万权,康振生,马占鸿,等.中国小麦条锈病综合治理理论与实践[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(20):4254-4262.
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[5]李恩才,李素玉,武剑州,等.关中西部小麦条锈病发生规律及病菌越冬、越夏问题研究[J].陕西农业科学,2008(1):103-104.
[6]崔鸣,李增义,王玉波,等.陕南小麦条锈病发生流行的原因与防治对策[J].石河子大学学报(自然科学版),2004,22(Sl):21-23.
[7]詹刚明,王建锋,王晓杰,等.中国小麦条锈菌生理小种演化及遗传重组[J].中国农业科学,2011,44(9):1815-1822.
[8]夏明安,唐建祥,李文巧,等.勉县小麦条锈病与气象条件的关系[J].陕西农业科学,2015,61(4):82-83.
[9]张顺京,陈光华,林伟锋,等.商洛市小麦条锈病发生特点及测报技术探讨[J].中国植保导刊,2012,32(9):40-43.
[10]温晓荣,芦静.宝鸡市小麦条锈病的发生状况及综合防治[J].种子科技,2017,5(35):102-103.
[11]胡小平,杨之为,李振岐,等.汉中地区小麦条锈病流行程度预测研究[J].西北农业大学学报,2000,28(2):18-21.
[12]唐启义,冯明光. DPS数据处理系统:实验设计、统计分析及数据挖掘[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.
[13] CHEN W Q,XIE S X. Ecological zone and inter-regional dispersal of wheat stripe rust in China[C]//HONG F Z,LI K X.(China Association of Agricultural Science Societies). Research Progress in Plant Protection and Plant Nutrition. Beijing:China Agriculture Press,1999:276-277.
[14]张俊文,刘延虹.宝鸡市近年小麦条锈病重发原因分析及综合治理技术[J].陕西农业科学,2010(2):100-102.
[15]杨之为,李振岐,贾美玲,等.小麦条锈病防治指标的初步研究[J].西北农业大学学报,1991,19(Sl):33-38.
[16] MA Z H,SHI S D,WANG H G,et al. Climate-based regional classification for oversummering and overwintering of Puccinia striiformis in China with GIS and Geostatistics[C]//Proceeding of9th International Workshop on Plant Disease Epidemiology. Landerneau,France,2005.
[2]陈万权,康振生,马占鸿,等.中国小麦条锈病综合治理理论与实践[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(20):4254-4262.
[3]谢水仙,汪可宁,陈杨林,等.我国小麦条锈病菌传播与高空气流关系的初步研究[J].植物病理学报,1993,23(3):203-209.
[4]谢飞舟,冯小军,文耀东,等. 2004-2011年陕西省小麦条锈菌越夏范围研究初报[J].麦类作物学报,2012,32(4):774-778.
[5]李恩才,李素玉,武剑州,等.关中西部小麦条锈病发生规律及病菌越冬、越夏问题研究[J].陕西农业科学,2008(1):103-104.
[6]崔鸣,李增义,王玉波,等.陕南小麦条锈病发生流行的原因与防治对策[J].石河子大学学报(自然科学版),2004,22(Sl):21-23.
[7]詹刚明,王建锋,王晓杰,等.中国小麦条锈菌生理小种演化及遗传重组[J].中国农业科学,2011,44(9):1815-1822.
[8]夏明安,唐建祥,李文巧,等.勉县小麦条锈病与气象条件的关系[J].陕西农业科学,2015,61(4):82-83.
[9]张顺京,陈光华,林伟锋,等.商洛市小麦条锈病发生特点及测报技术探讨[J].中国植保导刊,2012,32(9):40-43.
[10]温晓荣,芦静.宝鸡市小麦条锈病的发生状况及综合防治[J].种子科技,2017,5(35):102-103.
[11]胡小平,杨之为,李振岐,等.汉中地区小麦条锈病流行程度预测研究[J].西北农业大学学报,2000,28(2):18-21.
[12]唐启义,冯明光. DPS数据处理系统:实验设计、统计分析及数据挖掘[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.
[13] CHEN W Q,XIE S X. Ecological zone and inter-regional dispersal of wheat stripe rust in China[C]//HONG F Z,LI K X.(China Association of Agricultural Science Societies). Research Progress in Plant Protection and Plant Nutrition. Beijing:China Agriculture Press,1999:276-277.
[14]张俊文,刘延虹.宝鸡市近年小麦条锈病重发原因分析及综合治理技术[J].陕西农业科学,2010(2):100-102.
[15]杨之为,李振岐,贾美玲,等.小麦条锈病防治指标的初步研究[J].西北农业大学学报,1991,19(Sl):33-38.
[16] MA Z H,SHI S D,WANG H G,et al. Climate-based regional classification for oversummering and overwintering of Puccinia striiformis in China with GIS and Geostatistics[C]//Proceeding of9th International Workshop on Plant Disease Epidemiology. Landerneau,France,2005.