九寨沟M_S7.0地震强地震动模拟及漳扎镇地震动强度预测
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摘要
破坏性地震强度预测可用于工程领域抗震设防以及地震危险性分析评估,是防震减灾中一项很重要的基础工作.为了再现九寨沟地震的地震动强度,评估缺失强震记录的九寨章扎台站的地震动强度,本文用经验格林函数法对九寨沟地震进行了数值模拟.选取了震源周边地震动峰值加速度超过10Gal的10个强震台站进行模拟.因未得到九寨沟地震的余震,初次尝试将汶川地震和定西地震的余震作为格林函数模拟九寨沟地震.模拟结果整体上可以反映各台站地震动的强度特征,尤其是地震动高频成份拟合较好.模拟值的地震动峰值加速度、时程数据、反应谱等与观测值拟合较好.预测结果显示漳扎镇的地震动峰值加速度值约为180～200Gal.预测结果也表明在缺少大震的余震记录时,经验格林函数法使用其他大震的余震同样可以再现目标地震的强度特征.本研究也为经验格林函数方法在缺乏小震记录地区的使用积累了经验.最后总结了格林函数的选取标准,为经验格林函数方法来预测未来强震动特征积累了经验.
The intensity prediction of destructive earthquakes can be used in seismic fortification and seismic risk analysis and evaluation in the engineering field,which is an important basic work in earthquake prevention and disaster reduction.In order to reproduce the seismic intensity of the2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake and evaluate the seismic intensity of the Jiuzhaizhangzha station,which missed seismic records,the empirical Green function method was used to simulate this earthquake and evaluate the seismic intensity in the Zhangzha town.Ten strong groundmotion stations at which peak ground accelerations exceed 10 Gal were selected for simulation.Because of lacking the aftershocks,the first attempt was made to simulate the Jiuzhaigou earthquake with regarding the aftershocks of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and Dingxi earthquake as a green function.The simulated results can reflect the intensity characteristics of ground motion of each station as a whole,especially the high frequency component of ground motion is fitted well.The prediction results shows that the ground acceleration,time history,response spectrum and so on of the synthetic values are fitted well with the observed values.The prediction results also show that the peak ground acceleration value of the ground motion in the Zhangzha town is about180～200 Gal.These demonstrate that the empirical Green function method can reproduce the intensity characteristics of the target earthquake by using the aftershocks of other large earthquakes when lacking aftershock records of large earthquakes.This study has also accumulated experience for the use of the empirical Green function method in the case lacking of small earthquake records.Finally,the selection criteria of Green function are summarized.This work provides an experience of predicting the characteristics of strong ground motion using the empirical Green function method.
The intensity prediction of destructive earthquakes can be used in seismic fortification and seismic risk analysis and evaluation in the engineering field,which is an important basic work in earthquake prevention and disaster reduction.In order to reproduce the seismic intensity of the2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake and evaluate the seismic intensity of the Jiuzhaizhangzha station,which missed seismic records,the empirical Green function method was used to simulate this earthquake and evaluate the seismic intensity in the Zhangzha town.Ten strong groundmotion stations at which peak ground accelerations exceed 10 Gal were selected for simulation.Because of lacking the aftershocks,the first attempt was made to simulate the Jiuzhaigou earthquake with regarding the aftershocks of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and Dingxi earthquake as a green function.The simulated results can reflect the intensity characteristics of ground motion of each station as a whole,especially the high frequency component of ground motion is fitted well.The prediction results shows that the ground acceleration,time history,response spectrum and so on of the synthetic values are fitted well with the observed values.The prediction results also show that the peak ground acceleration value of the ground motion in the Zhangzha town is about180～200 Gal.These demonstrate that the empirical Green function method can reproduce the intensity characteristics of the target earthquake by using the aftershocks of other large earthquakes when lacking aftershock records of large earthquakes.This study has also accumulated experience for the use of the empirical Green function method in the case lacking of small earthquake records.Finally,the selection criteria of Green function are summarized.This work provides an experience of predicting the characteristics of strong ground motion using the empirical Green function method.
引文
Brune J N.1970.Tectonic stress and the spectra of seismic shear waves from earthquakes.Journal of Geophysical Research,75(26):4997-5009.
China Strong Motion Network Centre.2017.Strong ground motion observation bulletin(in Chinese).2017(4).
Deng Q D,Gao X,Chen G H,et al.2010.Recent tectonic activity of Bayankala fault-block and the Kunlun-Wenchuan earthquake series of the Tibetan Plateau.Earth Science Frontiers(in Chinese),17(5):163-178.
Fang L H,Wu J P,Su J R,et al.2018.Relocation of mainshock and aftershock sequence of the MS7.0Sichuan Jiuzhaigou earthquake.Chinese Science Bulletin,63(7):649-662.
Hanks T C,Kanamori H.1979.A moment magnitude scale.Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth,84(B5):2348-2350.
Hartzell S H.1978.Earthquake aftershocks as Green's functions.Geophysical Research Letters,5(1):1-4.
Haskell N A.1969.Elastic displacements in the near-field of a propagating fault.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,59(2):865-908.
Irikura K.1983.Semi-empirical estimation of strong ground motion during large earthquake.Bull Disas Prev Res,33:63-104.
Irikura K.1986.Prediction of strong acceleration motion using empirical Green′s function.∥Proceedings of the 7th Japan Earthquake Engineering Symposium.Tokyo:Architectural Institute of Japan,151-156.
Irikura K,Kamae K.1994.Estimation of strong ground motion in broad-frequency band based on a seismic source scaling model and an empirical Green′s function technique.Annals of Geophysics,37(6):1721-1743.
Irikura K,Miyake H.2011.Recipe for predicting strong ground motion from crustal earthquake scenarios.Pure and Applied Geophysics,168(1-2):85-104.
Irikura K,Miyakoshi K,Kamae K,et al.2017.Applicability of source scaling relations for crustal earthquakes to estimation of the ground motions of the 2016Kumamoto earthquake.Earth,Planets and Space,69:10.
Kamae K,Irikura K,Pitarka A.1998.A technique for simulating strong ground motion using hybrid Green's function.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,88(2):357-367.
Kanamori H.1979.A semi-empirical approach to prediction of longperiod ground motions from great earthquake.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,69(6):1654-1670.
Kurahashi S,Irikura K.2010.Characterized source model for simulating strong ground motions during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,100(5B):2450-2475.
Li Q C,Jing L P.2012.A review of ground motion simulation with empirical Green′s function.World Earthquake Engineering(in Chinese),28(4):89-94.
Li Z C.2017.The uncertainty factors research of near-field ground motion numerical simulation[Ph.D.thesis](in Chinese).Beijing:Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration.
Luo Q F.1989.Semi empirical synthesis of Near field acceleration[Ph.D.thesis](in Chinese).Harbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake and Ministration.
Miyake H,Iwata T,Irikura K.2003.Source characterization for broadband ground-motion simulation:Kinematic heterogeneous source model and strong motion generation area.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,93(6):2531-2545.
Shan B,Zheng Y,Liu C L,et al.2017.Coseismic Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the 2017 M7.0Jiuzhaigou earthquake,and its relationship with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.Science China Earth Sciences,60(12):2181-2189.
Shan X J,Qu C Y,Gong W Y,et al.2017.Coseismic deformation field of the Jiuzhaigou MS7.0earthquake from Sentinel-1AInSAR data and fault slip inversion.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),60(12):4527-4536,doi:10.6038/cjg20171201.
Somerville P,Irikura K,Graves R,et al.1999.Characterizing crustal earthquake slip models for the prediction of strong ground motion.Seismological Research Letters,70(1):59-80.
Xia C,Zhao B M,Horike M,et al.2015.Strong ground motion simulations of the MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake using the empirical Green′s function method.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,105(3):1383-1397.
Xu X W,Chen G H,Wang Q X,et al.2017.Discussion on seismogenic structure of Jiuzhaigou earthquake and its implication for current strain state in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),60(10):4018-4026,doi:10.6038/cjg20171028.
Yang Y H,Fan J,Hua Q,et al.2017.Inversion for the focal mechanisms of the 2017Jiuzhaigou M7.0earthquake sequence using near-field full waveforms.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),60(10):4098-4104,doi:10.6038/cjg20171034.
Yi G X,Long F,Liang M J,et al.2017.Focal mechanism solutions and seismogenic structure of the 8August 2017 M7.0Jiuzhaigou earthquake and its aftershocks,northern Sichuan.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),60(10):4083-4097,doi:10.6038/cjg20171033.
Zhang X,Feng W P,Xu L S,et al.2017.The source-process inversion and the intensity estimation of the 2017 MS7.0Jiuzhaigou earthquake.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),60(10):4105-4116,doi:10.6038/cjg20171035.
Zheng X J,Zhang Y,Wang R J.2017.Estimating the rupture process of the 8August 2017Jiuzhaigou earthquake by inverting strong-motion data with IDS method.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),60(11):4421-4430,doi:10.6038/cjg20171128.
邓起东,高翔,陈桂华等.2010.青藏高原昆仑-汶川地震系列与巴颜喀喇断块的最新活动.地学前缘,17(5):163-178.
房立华,吴建平,苏金蓉等.2018.四川九寨沟MS7.0地震主震及其余震序列精定位.科学通报,2018,63(7):649-662.
国家强震动台网中心.2017.强震动观测简报.2017(4).
李启成,景立平.2012.经验格林函数方法模拟地震动研究现状.世界地震工程,28(4):89-94.
李宗超.2017.大震近场地震动数值模拟不确定性研究[博士论文].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所.
罗奇峰.1989.近场加速度的半经验合成[博士论文].哈尔滨:中国家地震局工程力学研究所.
单斌,郑勇,刘成利等.2017.2017年M7.0级九寨沟地震同震库仑应力变化及其与2008年汶川地震的关系.中国科学:地球科学,47(11):1329-1338.
单新建,屈春燕,龚文瑜等.2017.2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级地震InSAR同震形变场及断层滑动分布反演.地球物理学报,60(12):4527-4536,doi:10.6038/cjg20171201.
徐锡伟,陈桂华,王启欣等.2017.九寨沟地震发震断层属性及青藏高原东南缘现今应变状态讨论.地球物理学报,60(10):4018-4026,doi:10.6038/cjg20171028.
杨宜海,范军,花茜等.2017.近震全波形反演2017年九寨沟M7.0地震序列震源机制解.地球物理学报,60(10):4098-4104,doi:10.6038/cjg20171034.
易桂喜,龙锋,梁明剑等.2017.2017年8月8日九寨沟M7.0地震及余震震源机制解与发震构造分析.地球物理学报,60(10):4083-4097,doi:10.6038/cjg20171033.
张旭,冯万鹏,许力生等.2017.2017年九寨沟MS7.0级地震震源过程反演与烈度估计.地球物理学报,60(10):4105-4116,doi:10.6038/cjg20171035.
郑绪君,张勇,汪荣江.2017.采用IDS方法反演强震数据确定2017年8月8日九寨沟地震的破裂过程.地球物理学报,60(11):4421-4430,doi:10.6038/cjg20171128.
China Strong Motion Network Centre.2017.Strong ground motion observation bulletin(in Chinese).2017(4).
Deng Q D,Gao X,Chen G H,et al.2010.Recent tectonic activity of Bayankala fault-block and the Kunlun-Wenchuan earthquake series of the Tibetan Plateau.Earth Science Frontiers(in Chinese),17(5):163-178.
Fang L H,Wu J P,Su J R,et al.2018.Relocation of mainshock and aftershock sequence of the MS7.0Sichuan Jiuzhaigou earthquake.Chinese Science Bulletin,63(7):649-662.
Hanks T C,Kanamori H.1979.A moment magnitude scale.Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth,84(B5):2348-2350.
Hartzell S H.1978.Earthquake aftershocks as Green's functions.Geophysical Research Letters,5(1):1-4.
Haskell N A.1969.Elastic displacements in the near-field of a propagating fault.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,59(2):865-908.
Irikura K.1983.Semi-empirical estimation of strong ground motion during large earthquake.Bull Disas Prev Res,33:63-104.
Irikura K.1986.Prediction of strong acceleration motion using empirical Green′s function.∥Proceedings of the 7th Japan Earthquake Engineering Symposium.Tokyo:Architectural Institute of Japan,151-156.
Irikura K,Kamae K.1994.Estimation of strong ground motion in broad-frequency band based on a seismic source scaling model and an empirical Green′s function technique.Annals of Geophysics,37(6):1721-1743.
Irikura K,Miyake H.2011.Recipe for predicting strong ground motion from crustal earthquake scenarios.Pure and Applied Geophysics,168(1-2):85-104.
Irikura K,Miyakoshi K,Kamae K,et al.2017.Applicability of source scaling relations for crustal earthquakes to estimation of the ground motions of the 2016Kumamoto earthquake.Earth,Planets and Space,69:10.
Kamae K,Irikura K,Pitarka A.1998.A technique for simulating strong ground motion using hybrid Green's function.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,88(2):357-367.
Kanamori H.1979.A semi-empirical approach to prediction of longperiod ground motions from great earthquake.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,69(6):1654-1670.
Kurahashi S,Irikura K.2010.Characterized source model for simulating strong ground motions during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,100(5B):2450-2475.
Li Q C,Jing L P.2012.A review of ground motion simulation with empirical Green′s function.World Earthquake Engineering(in Chinese),28(4):89-94.
Li Z C.2017.The uncertainty factors research of near-field ground motion numerical simulation[Ph.D.thesis](in Chinese).Beijing:Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration.
Luo Q F.1989.Semi empirical synthesis of Near field acceleration[Ph.D.thesis](in Chinese).Harbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake and Ministration.
Miyake H,Iwata T,Irikura K.2003.Source characterization for broadband ground-motion simulation:Kinematic heterogeneous source model and strong motion generation area.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,93(6):2531-2545.
Shan B,Zheng Y,Liu C L,et al.2017.Coseismic Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the 2017 M7.0Jiuzhaigou earthquake,and its relationship with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.Science China Earth Sciences,60(12):2181-2189.
Shan X J,Qu C Y,Gong W Y,et al.2017.Coseismic deformation field of the Jiuzhaigou MS7.0earthquake from Sentinel-1AInSAR data and fault slip inversion.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),60(12):4527-4536,doi:10.6038/cjg20171201.
Somerville P,Irikura K,Graves R,et al.1999.Characterizing crustal earthquake slip models for the prediction of strong ground motion.Seismological Research Letters,70(1):59-80.
Xia C,Zhao B M,Horike M,et al.2015.Strong ground motion simulations of the MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake using the empirical Green′s function method.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,105(3):1383-1397.
Xu X W,Chen G H,Wang Q X,et al.2017.Discussion on seismogenic structure of Jiuzhaigou earthquake and its implication for current strain state in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),60(10):4018-4026,doi:10.6038/cjg20171028.
Yang Y H,Fan J,Hua Q,et al.2017.Inversion for the focal mechanisms of the 2017Jiuzhaigou M7.0earthquake sequence using near-field full waveforms.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),60(10):4098-4104,doi:10.6038/cjg20171034.
Yi G X,Long F,Liang M J,et al.2017.Focal mechanism solutions and seismogenic structure of the 8August 2017 M7.0Jiuzhaigou earthquake and its aftershocks,northern Sichuan.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),60(10):4083-4097,doi:10.6038/cjg20171033.
Zhang X,Feng W P,Xu L S,et al.2017.The source-process inversion and the intensity estimation of the 2017 MS7.0Jiuzhaigou earthquake.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),60(10):4105-4116,doi:10.6038/cjg20171035.
Zheng X J,Zhang Y,Wang R J.2017.Estimating the rupture process of the 8August 2017Jiuzhaigou earthquake by inverting strong-motion data with IDS method.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),60(11):4421-4430,doi:10.6038/cjg20171128.
邓起东,高翔,陈桂华等.2010.青藏高原昆仑-汶川地震系列与巴颜喀喇断块的最新活动.地学前缘,17(5):163-178.
房立华,吴建平,苏金蓉等.2018.四川九寨沟MS7.0地震主震及其余震序列精定位.科学通报,2018,63(7):649-662.
国家强震动台网中心.2017.强震动观测简报.2017(4).
李启成,景立平.2012.经验格林函数方法模拟地震动研究现状.世界地震工程,28(4):89-94.
李宗超.2017.大震近场地震动数值模拟不确定性研究[博士论文].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所.
罗奇峰.1989.近场加速度的半经验合成[博士论文].哈尔滨:中国家地震局工程力学研究所.
单斌,郑勇,刘成利等.2017.2017年M7.0级九寨沟地震同震库仑应力变化及其与2008年汶川地震的关系.中国科学:地球科学,47(11):1329-1338.
单新建,屈春燕,龚文瑜等.2017.2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级地震InSAR同震形变场及断层滑动分布反演.地球物理学报,60(12):4527-4536,doi:10.6038/cjg20171201.
徐锡伟,陈桂华,王启欣等.2017.九寨沟地震发震断层属性及青藏高原东南缘现今应变状态讨论.地球物理学报,60(10):4018-4026,doi:10.6038/cjg20171028.
杨宜海,范军,花茜等.2017.近震全波形反演2017年九寨沟M7.0地震序列震源机制解.地球物理学报,60(10):4098-4104,doi:10.6038/cjg20171034.
易桂喜,龙锋,梁明剑等.2017.2017年8月8日九寨沟M7.0地震及余震震源机制解与发震构造分析.地球物理学报,60(10):4083-4097,doi:10.6038/cjg20171033.
张旭,冯万鹏,许力生等.2017.2017年九寨沟MS7.0级地震震源过程反演与烈度估计.地球物理学报,60(10):4105-4116,doi:10.6038/cjg20171035.
郑绪君,张勇,汪荣江.2017.采用IDS方法反演强震数据确定2017年8月8日九寨沟地震的破裂过程.地球物理学报,60(11):4421-4430,doi:10.6038/cjg20171128.