SRM融雪径流模型在奎屯河流域洪水预报的应用
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摘要
我国中小河流域防洪标准普遍偏低,急需加强洪水预报工作,特别是在站点稀少,资料匮乏的高寒山区,由融雪产生的径流与由降水产生的径流难以区分,加大了洪水预报工作难度。SRM融雪径流模型是专门解决这个问题的水文模型,它对于山区流域融雪径流预报和模拟研究起着非常重要的作用。基于SRM融雪径流模型,以新疆地区典型山区中小河流域奎屯河为例,通过MODIS遥感数据提取流域积雪覆盖率,并结合气象台站数据,对研究区进行水文模拟,研究结果认为:融雪径流模型能够很好的模拟奎屯河流域的径流过程,率定期与验证期Nash效率系数都达到了0.7以上,说明融雪径流模型能够适用于奎屯河流域的洪水预报,对高寒山区中小河流域防洪预警具有一定的指导意义。
The medium and small rivers in China generally have low flood control standards and urgently need strengthened flood forecasting,especially in high-cold mountainous areas with insufficient stations and data,where it is difficult to distinguish the runoff produced by snowmelt from that by precipitation,which enhances the difficulty of flood forecasting.Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM)is a hydrological model for simulating and forecasting the snowmelt runoff in mountainous watersheds.It plays an important role in the study of mountainous watersheds with snowmelt and precipitation as the main runoff sources.Based on SRM and taking Kuitun River as a typical case of medium and small rivers in high-cold mountainous areas of Xinjiang,we simulated the daily runoff of the catchment by extracting the snow cover rate through MODIS remote sensing data and collecting meteorological data.The results showed that the snowmelt runoff model could well simulate the runoff process of Kuitun River catchment,and its Nash efficiency coefficients in both calibration and validation periods exceeded 0.7,which means that the snowmelt runoff model can be applied to flood forecasting in Kuitun River.The model has some guiding significance for the flood prevention and early warning in medium and small river catchments of high-cold mountainous areas.
The medium and small rivers in China generally have low flood control standards and urgently need strengthened flood forecasting,especially in high-cold mountainous areas with insufficient stations and data,where it is difficult to distinguish the runoff produced by snowmelt from that by precipitation,which enhances the difficulty of flood forecasting.Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM)is a hydrological model for simulating and forecasting the snowmelt runoff in mountainous watersheds.It plays an important role in the study of mountainous watersheds with snowmelt and precipitation as the main runoff sources.Based on SRM and taking Kuitun River as a typical case of medium and small rivers in high-cold mountainous areas of Xinjiang,we simulated the daily runoff of the catchment by extracting the snow cover rate through MODIS remote sensing data and collecting meteorological data.The results showed that the snowmelt runoff model could well simulate the runoff process of Kuitun River catchment,and its Nash efficiency coefficients in both calibration and validation periods exceeded 0.7,which means that the snowmelt runoff model can be applied to flood forecasting in Kuitun River.The model has some guiding significance for the flood prevention and early warning in medium and small river catchments of high-cold mountainous areas.
引文
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[17]房世峰.基于"3S"技术的分布式融雪径流模型的设计和应用[D].新疆大学,2007.(FANG S F.The design and application of distributed snowmelt runoff model based on the"3S"technology[D].Xinjiang University,2007.(in Chinese))
[18]李弘毅,王建.SRM融雪径流模型在黑河流域上游的模拟研究[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(5):769-775.(LI H Y,WANG J.The snowmelt runoff model applied in the upper Heihe River Basin[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2008,30(5):769-775.(in Chinese))
[19]李晶,刘时银,魏俊锋,等.塔里木河源区托什干河流域积雪动态及融雪径流模拟与预估[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(6):1508-1516.(LI J,LIU S Y,WEI J F,et al.Snow cover dynamics and snowmelt runoff modeling in the Toxkan River basin,source region of the Tarim River,Xinjiang[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2014,36(6):1508-1516.(in Chinese))DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0181.
[20]怀保娟,李忠勤,孙美平,等.SRM融雪径流模型在乌鲁木齐河源区的应用研究[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(1):41-48.(HUAI B J,LI Z Q,SUN M P,et al.Snowmelt runoff model applied in the headwaters region of Urumqi River[J].Arid Land Geography,2013,36(1):41-48.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13826/j.cnki.cn65-1103/x.2013.01.010.
[21]赵军,黄永生,宋阁庆,等.SRM融雪径流模型在疏勒河流域上游的应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(1):72-80.(ZHAO J,HUANG Y S,SONG G Q,et al.Application of snowmelt runoff model in upper stream of Shule river basin[J].Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2015,26(1):72-80.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.01.014.
[22]HE Z H,PARAJKA J,TIAN F Q.Estimating degree-day factors from MODIS for snowmelt runoff modeling[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014,18:4773-4789.DOI:10.5194/hess-18-4773-2014.
[23]侯慧姝,杨宏业.MODIS积雪产品及研究应用概述[J].遥感技术与应用,2009,24(2):252-256.(HOU H S,YANG H Y.A general introduction to MODIS snow products and its researching application[J].Remote Sensing Technology and Application,2009,24(2):252-256.(in Chinese))
[24]MARTINEC J,RANGO A,ROBERTS R.The snowmelt runoff model(SRM)user′s manual(updated edition 1998,Version4.0)[M].Berne:University of Berne,1998.
[25]JONATHAN K,WOONSUP C,ANKE K.Snowmelt runoff modeling:Limitations and potential for mitigating water disputes[J].Journal of Hydrology,2012,430-431:179-181.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.01.043.
[26]MOHSIN J B,MUHAMMAD B.Application of snowmelt runoff model for water resource management[J].Hydrological Processes,2011,25:3735-3747.DOI:10.1002/hyp.8099.
[27]苑希民,李鸿雁,刘树坤,等.神经网络和遗传算法在水科学领域的应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002.(YUAN X M,LI H Y,LIU S K,et al.Application of neural network and genetic algorithm in water science[M].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2002.(in Chinese))
[2]党素珍,刘昌明,王中根,等.黑河流域上游融雪径流时间变化特征及成因分析[J].冰川冻土,2012(4):920-926.(DANG S Z,LIU C M,WANG Z G,et al.Analyses on temporal variations of snowmelt runoff time in the upper reaches of Heihe river and its climate causes[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2012(4):920-926.(in Chinese))
[3]柳林,安会静.中小河流洪水预报的难点与解决方案探讨[J].海河水利,2013(5):51-53.(LIU L,AN H J.Discussion on difficulties and solutions of flood forecasting in medium and small rivers[J].Haihe Water Resources,2013(5):51-53.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7328.2013.05.018.
[4]亚力昆·马合木提.探析中小河流洪水预报的难点与解决方案[J].黑龙江水利科技,2014(3):70-71.(YALIKUN Mahemuti.Discussion on the difficulties and solutions of flood forecast in middle and small rivers[J].Heilongjiang Science and Technology of Water Conservancy,2014(3):70-71.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14122/j.cnki.hskj.2014.03.010.
[5]MARTINEC J,RANGO A.Parameter values for snowmelt runoff modelling[J].Journal of Hydrology,1986,84(3-4):197-219.DOI:10.1016/0022-1694(86)90123-X.
[6]RANGO A,MARTINEC J.Application of a snowmelt-runoff model using Landsat data[J].Nordic Hydrology,1979,10(4):225-238.
[7]TAHIR A A,CHEVALLIER P,ARNAUD Y,et al.Modeling snowmelt-runoff under climate scenarios in the Hunza River basin,Karakoram Range,Northern Pakistan[J].Journal of Hydrology,2011,409(1-2):104-117.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.08.035.
[8]JONATHAN K,WOONSUP C,JINMU C.Sensitivity of the snowmelt runoff model to snow covered area and temperature inputs[J].Applied Geography,2014,55:30-38.DOI:10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.08.011.
[9]YU M Y,CHEN X,LI L H,et al.Incorporating accumulated temperature and algorithm of snow cover calculation into the snowmelt runoff model[J].Hydrological Processes,2013,27:3589-3595.DOI:10.1002/hyp.9372.
[10]ZHANG G Q,XIE H J,YAO T D,et al.Quantitative water resources assessment of Qinghai Lake basin using Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM)[J].Journal of Hydrology,2014,519:976-987.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.08.022.
[11]VAFAKHAH M,NOURI A,AIAVIPANAH S K.Snowmeltrunoff estimation using radiation SRM model in Taleghan watershed[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2015,73:993-1003.DOI:10.1007/s12665-014-3449-5.
[12]EMILE E,ALBERT R,CAITRIANA M S,et al.Simulated impact of climate change on hydrology of multiple watersheds using traditional and recommended snowmelt runoff model methodology[J].Journal of Water and Climate Change,2016,7(4):665-682.DOI:10.2166/wcc.2016.097.
[13]KARIMI H,ZEINIVAND H,TAHMASEBIPOUR N,et al.Comparison of SRM and WetSpa models efficiency for snowmelt runoff simulation[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2016,75:664.DOI:10.1007/s12665-016-5490-z.
[14]冯学智,李文君,史正涛,等.卫星雪盖监测与玛纳斯河融雪径流模拟[J].遥感技术与应用,2000,15(1):18-21.(FENG X Z,LI W J,SHI Z T,et al.Satellite snowcover monitoring and snowmelt runoff simulation of Manas River in Tianshan Region[J].Remote Sensing Technology and Application,2000,15(1):18-21.(in Chinese))
[15]马虹,程国栋.SRM融雪径流模型在西天山巩乃斯河流域的应用实验[J].科学通报,2003,48(19):2088-2093.(MA H,CHENG G D.Application of snowmelt runoff model in Kunes River Basin of Western Tianshan Mountains[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2003,48(19):2088-2093.(in Chinese))
[16]李宝林,张一驰,周成虎.天山开都河流域雪盖消融曲线研究[J].资源科学,2004,26(6):23-29.(LI B L,ZHANG Y C,ZHOU C H.Snow cover depletion curve in Kaidu River Basin,Tianshan Mountains[J].Resources Science.2004,26(6):23-29.(in Chinese))
[17]房世峰.基于"3S"技术的分布式融雪径流模型的设计和应用[D].新疆大学,2007.(FANG S F.The design and application of distributed snowmelt runoff model based on the"3S"technology[D].Xinjiang University,2007.(in Chinese))
[18]李弘毅,王建.SRM融雪径流模型在黑河流域上游的模拟研究[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(5):769-775.(LI H Y,WANG J.The snowmelt runoff model applied in the upper Heihe River Basin[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2008,30(5):769-775.(in Chinese))
[19]李晶,刘时银,魏俊锋,等.塔里木河源区托什干河流域积雪动态及融雪径流模拟与预估[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(6):1508-1516.(LI J,LIU S Y,WEI J F,et al.Snow cover dynamics and snowmelt runoff modeling in the Toxkan River basin,source region of the Tarim River,Xinjiang[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2014,36(6):1508-1516.(in Chinese))DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0181.
[20]怀保娟,李忠勤,孙美平,等.SRM融雪径流模型在乌鲁木齐河源区的应用研究[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(1):41-48.(HUAI B J,LI Z Q,SUN M P,et al.Snowmelt runoff model applied in the headwaters region of Urumqi River[J].Arid Land Geography,2013,36(1):41-48.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13826/j.cnki.cn65-1103/x.2013.01.010.
[21]赵军,黄永生,宋阁庆,等.SRM融雪径流模型在疏勒河流域上游的应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(1):72-80.(ZHAO J,HUANG Y S,SONG G Q,et al.Application of snowmelt runoff model in upper stream of Shule river basin[J].Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2015,26(1):72-80.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.01.014.
[22]HE Z H,PARAJKA J,TIAN F Q.Estimating degree-day factors from MODIS for snowmelt runoff modeling[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014,18:4773-4789.DOI:10.5194/hess-18-4773-2014.
[23]侯慧姝,杨宏业.MODIS积雪产品及研究应用概述[J].遥感技术与应用,2009,24(2):252-256.(HOU H S,YANG H Y.A general introduction to MODIS snow products and its researching application[J].Remote Sensing Technology and Application,2009,24(2):252-256.(in Chinese))
[24]MARTINEC J,RANGO A,ROBERTS R.The snowmelt runoff model(SRM)user′s manual(updated edition 1998,Version4.0)[M].Berne:University of Berne,1998.
[25]JONATHAN K,WOONSUP C,ANKE K.Snowmelt runoff modeling:Limitations and potential for mitigating water disputes[J].Journal of Hydrology,2012,430-431:179-181.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.01.043.
[26]MOHSIN J B,MUHAMMAD B.Application of snowmelt runoff model for water resource management[J].Hydrological Processes,2011,25:3735-3747.DOI:10.1002/hyp.8099.
[27]苑希民,李鸿雁,刘树坤,等.神经网络和遗传算法在水科学领域的应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002.(YUAN X M,LI H Y,LIU S K,et al.Application of neural network and genetic algorithm in water science[M].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2002.(in Chinese))