贵州山区降水集中度和降水集中期的时空变化特征
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摘要
利用1961~2015年贵州省81个气象观测站的逐日降雨资料,计算了降水集中度(PCD)和集中期(PCP),并采用线性趋势、空间分析、M-K突变检验和R/S分析等方法 ,对贵州山区复杂地形下的降水集中度和降水集中期进行了分析。结果表明:贵州1961~2015年PCD波动幅度介于0.30~0.59之间,空间分布上由东向西逐渐增加的趋势,PCP的波动范围在16.5~21.0旬之间,空间呈现出由东南向西北逐渐增加的趋势;PCD与降水量的相关性高于PCP与降水量的相关性,表明贵州地区的降水量越多,降水越趋于集中;R/S分析表明贵州地区PCD可能隐含着周期规律,PCP会保持提前的趋势。
Based on the daily precipitation data from the 81 stations in Guizhou Province during 1961-2015, this paper analyzed the precipitation concentration degree(PCD) and concentration period(PCP) of Guizhou mountain complex terrain by using the methods of the linear trend, spatial analysis, Mann Kendall trend test and R/S analysis. The results show that, during 1961-2015, the PCD in the Guizhou ranged from 0.30 to 0.59,gradually increased from east to west in the spatial distribution, and the PCP ranged from 16.5 to 21.0 periods of ten days, the spatial distribution from the southeast to the northwest gradually increased. The correlation between PCD and precipitation is higher than that between PCP and precipitation, which indicates that the more precipitation in Guizhou Province, the more PCD tends to be concentrated. R/S results show that the PCD in Guizhou Province may be periodic, and the PCP will keep ahead of the tendency.
Based on the daily precipitation data from the 81 stations in Guizhou Province during 1961-2015, this paper analyzed the precipitation concentration degree(PCD) and concentration period(PCP) of Guizhou mountain complex terrain by using the methods of the linear trend, spatial analysis, Mann Kendall trend test and R/S analysis. The results show that, during 1961-2015, the PCD in the Guizhou ranged from 0.30 to 0.59,gradually increased from east to west in the spatial distribution, and the PCP ranged from 16.5 to 21.0 periods of ten days, the spatial distribution from the southeast to the northwest gradually increased. The correlation between PCD and precipitation is higher than that between PCP and precipitation, which indicates that the more precipitation in Guizhou Province, the more PCD tends to be concentrated. R/S results show that the PCD in Guizhou Province may be periodic, and the PCP will keep ahead of the tendency.
引文
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[19]曹永兴,蔡宏珂,向卫国,等.我国西南地区1963年-2012年降水集中指数的变化特征[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2016,38(10):117-124.(CAO Yongxiong,CAI Hongke,XIANG Weiguo,et al.Characteristics of precipitation concentration index variations in southwest China from 1963 to 2012[J].Journal of South west University(Natural Science Edition),2016,38(10):117-124.(in Chinese))
[2]王芬,曹杰,李腹广,等.贵州不同等级降水日数气候特征及其与降水量的关系[J].高原气象,2015,34(1):145-154.(WANG Fen,CAO Jie,LI Fuguang,et al.Climate characteristics of rain days and the relationship between rain days and total amount of precipitation in Guizhou[J].Plateau Meteorology,2015,34(1):145-154.(in Chinese))
[3]冯婧,程兵芬,王坤,等.我国西南地区典型降雨特征-以贵州湄潭县为例[J].长江科学院院报,2012,29(12):1-4.(FENG Jing,CHENG Binfen,WANG Kun,et al.Typical characteristics of rainfall evolution in southwest China:a case study of Meitan county in Guizhou province[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2012,29(12):1-4.(in Chinese))
[4]ZHANG Lujun,Qian Yongfu.Annual distribution features of the yearly precipitation in China and their inter annual variations[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2003,17(2):146-163.
[5]刘贤赵,李嘉竹,宿庆,等.基于集中度与集中期的径流年内分配研究[J].地理科学,2007,27(6):791-795.(LIU Xianzhao,LI Jiazhu,SU Qing,et al.Inter annual runoff distribution based on degree and time of concentration for rivers[J].Scientia Geographic Sinica,2007,27(6):791-795.(in Chinese))
[6]姜爱军,杜银,谢志清,等.中国强降水过程时空集中度气候趋势[J].地理学报,2005,60(6):129-136.(JIANG Aijun,Du Yin,XIE Zhiqing,et al.Climatic trends of heavy precipitation spatial and temporal concentration in China[J].Acta Geographic Sinica,2005,60(6):129-136.(in Chinese))
[7]张天宇,程炳岩,王记芳,等.华北雨季降水集中度和集中期的时空变化特征[J].高原气象,2007,26(4):843-853.(ZHANG Tianyu,CHENG Bingyan,WANG Jifang,et al.Temporal and spatial change characteristics of precipitation-concentration degree(PCD)and precipitation-concentration period(PCP)over north China in rainy reason[J].Plateau Meteorology,2007,26(4):843-853.(in Chinese))
[8]张文,张天宇,刘剑.东北降水过程年集中度和集中期的时空变化特征[J].南京气象学院学报,2008,31(3):403-410.(ZHANG Wen,ZHANG Tianyu,LIU Jian.Temporal and spatial features of precipitation-concentration degree and precipitation-concentration period of annual rainfal lover northeast China[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorolog,2008,31(3):403-410.(in Chinese))
[9]戴廷仁,陆忠艳,李广霞,等.近46年辽宁省降水集中程度研究[J].气象,2007,33(1):32-37.(DAI Tingren,LV Zhongyan,LIGuangxia,et al,Research of precipitation concentration degree in Liaoning province for the last 46 years[J].Meteorological Monthly,2007,33(1):32-37.(in Chinese))
[10]李远平,杨太保,马建国.淠河流域汛期降水集中度和集中期的变化特征[J].资源科学,2012,34(3):418-423.(LI Yuanping,YANGTaibao,MA Jianguo.Change characteristics of precipitation concentration degree(PCD)and precipitation concentration period(PCP)in the flood season in Pi River valley[J].Resources Science,2012,34(3):418-423.(in Chinese))
[11]汪卫平,张祖强,许遐祯,等.中国降水集中期之特征[J].气象学报,2015,(6):1052-1065.(WANG Weiping,ZHANG Zuqiang,XUXiazhen,et al.Characteristice of the precipitation concentration period in China[J].Acta Meteorological Sinica,2015,(6):1052-1065.(in Chinese))
[12]王米雪,延军平.1960-2013年中国东南沿海地区年内降水集中度和集中期的时空变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(2):277-282,287.(WANG Mixue,YAN Junping.Spatial-temporal variation of intra-annual precipitation concentration degree and precipitation concentration period on southeast coast of China from 1960 to2013[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,36(2):277-282,287.(in Chinese))
[13]冯新灵,罗隆诚,冯自立,等.中国近50年降水变化趋势及突变的Hurst指数试验[J].干旱区地理,2009,32(6):859-866.(FENGXinling,LUO Longcheng,FENG Zili,et al.Hurst index experiment on precipitation change trend and mutation of china in the near 50 years[J].Arid Lang Geography,2009,32(6):859-866.(in Chinese))
[14]李珊珊,张明军,汪宝龙,等.近51年来三江源区降水变化的空间差异[J].生态学杂志,2012,31(10):2635-2643.(LI Shanshan,ZHANG Mingjun,WANG Baolong,et al.Spatial difference of precipitation variation in Three-River headwaters region of China in recent 51 years[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2012,31(10):2635-2643.(in Chinese))
[15]徐丽梅,郭英,刘敏,等.1957年至2008年海河流域气温变化趋势和突变分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(5):995-1001.(XU Limei,GUOYing,LIU Ming,et al.Analysis of temperature trends and change points in the Haihe River basin over the last 50 years[J].Resources Science,2011,33(5):995-1001.(in Chinese))
[16]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.(WEI Fengying.Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology[M].Beijing:China Meteorology Press,1999.(in Chinese))
[17]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.(FU Zongbing,WANG Qiang.The definition and detection of the abrupt climatic change[J].Scientia Atmospherica Sinica,1992,16(4):482-493.(in Chinese))
[18]朱丹,肖天贵,谌芸.四川地区1960年-2004年降水集中程度研究[J].资源科学,2010,32(10):1910-1917.(ZHU Dan,XIAO Tiangui,CHEN Yun.A study on precipitation concentration in Sichuan province from 1960 to 2004[J].Resources Science,2010,32(10):1910-1917.(in Chinese))
[19]曹永兴,蔡宏珂,向卫国,等.我国西南地区1963年-2012年降水集中指数的变化特征[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2016,38(10):117-124.(CAO Yongxiong,CAI Hongke,XIANG Weiguo,et al.Characteristics of precipitation concentration index variations in southwest China from 1963 to 2012[J].Journal of South west University(Natural Science Edition),2016,38(10):117-124.(in Chinese))