多普勒雷达资料同化在福建地区暴雨过程中的模拟试验
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摘要
利用中尺度模式WRFV3.5,对福建地区的一次暴雨过程进行了模式参数化方案模拟效果的敏感性试验,并同化了多普勒雷达资料进行了模拟研究。结果表明,WSM5微物理方案与BMJ积云对流方案的组合模拟大雨和暴雨量级降水的TS评分可达0.29,模拟效果优于其他各种组合。在此基础上,采用WRFV3.5三维变分系统,直接同化多普勒雷达资料,并和登陆台风的外围暴雨过程的控制试验比较,结果表明,仅同化反射率资料使得暴雨落区会向南调整,更接近于实况(TS评分提高了0.12),而仅同化径向风资料使得模拟的降水强度更趋近于实况(TS评分提高了0.13);同时同化反射率和径向风资料,使得暴雨落区及其强度的模拟最接近于实况(TS评分从0.12提高到0.28);敏感性试验的对比结果以时间间隔为3 h时模拟效果最优,6 h间隔次之。因此,合理同化雷达资料会显著改进福建登陆台风的降水模拟效果。
The mesoscale model WRFV3.5 was used to compare the result of different cumulus convectional and microphysical parameterization schemes on rainstorm simulating over Fujian area,and do simulated test on heavy rain by assimilating Doppler radar data in Fujian.The result indicated that the microphysical parameterization of WSM5 along with BMJ cumulus convectional parameterization had relatively well matched with observed strong precipitation,the TS score of this group were 0.29 both in downfall and rainstorm simulating.The Doppler radar data directly assimilated into the mesoscale model,which focused on the rainstorm period of typhoon,applied by the Three Dimensional Variation Assimilation System(3 DVAR).The simulated effect was better with Doppler than assimilation of surface observed data.Furthermore,the radar reflectively data assimilation,which made the rainstorm area adjust to the south,was favored to precipitation area simulations(the TS score increased by0.12),while only assimilated radial velocity of Doppler data could be advantaged to rainfall strength simulations(the TS score increased by 0.13).The result of assimilation with both reflectively and radial velocity data showed minimum deviation compared to observation(the TS score increased by 0.16).In addition,the result also showed interval time of assimilation had obvious influenced on simulated effects,and three or six hour of assimilated interval time was the best experiment in case simulations.
The mesoscale model WRFV3.5 was used to compare the result of different cumulus convectional and microphysical parameterization schemes on rainstorm simulating over Fujian area,and do simulated test on heavy rain by assimilating Doppler radar data in Fujian.The result indicated that the microphysical parameterization of WSM5 along with BMJ cumulus convectional parameterization had relatively well matched with observed strong precipitation,the TS score of this group were 0.29 both in downfall and rainstorm simulating.The Doppler radar data directly assimilated into the mesoscale model,which focused on the rainstorm period of typhoon,applied by the Three Dimensional Variation Assimilation System(3 DVAR).The simulated effect was better with Doppler than assimilation of surface observed data.Furthermore,the radar reflectively data assimilation,which made the rainstorm area adjust to the south,was favored to precipitation area simulations(the TS score increased by0.12),while only assimilated radial velocity of Doppler data could be advantaged to rainfall strength simulations(the TS score increased by 0.13).The result of assimilation with both reflectively and radial velocity data showed minimum deviation compared to observation(the TS score increased by 0.16).In addition,the result also showed interval time of assimilation had obvious influenced on simulated effects,and three or six hour of assimilated interval time was the best experiment in case simulations.
引文
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董海萍,袁炳,罗雨,2017.多源资料循环同化在台风“潭美”预报中的应用[J].热带气象学报,33(4):433-441.
兰伟仁,朱江,薛明,等,2010.风暴尺度天气下利用集合卡尔曼滤波模拟多普勒雷达资料同化试验I:不考虑模式误差的情形[J].大气科学,34(3):640-652.
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闵锦忠,刘悦,高士博,等,2016.微物理方案及其参数对EnSRF资料同化的影响研究[J].大气科学学报,39(4):510-524.
沈菲菲,闵锦忠,陈鹏,等,2015.多普勒雷达资料同化在台风“桑美”预报中的应用研究[J].海洋学报,37(3):25-35.
施丽娟,许小峰,李柏,等,2009.雷达资料在登陆台风“桑美”数值模拟中的应用[J].应用气象学报,20(3):257-266.
王洪,尹金方,王东海,2014.单双参云微物理方案对华南暴雨的模拟对比分析[J].高原气象,33(5):1341-1351.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00119.
王坤,张飞民,孙超,等,2014.WRF-WSM3微物理方案在青藏高原地区暴雪模拟中的改进及试验[J].大气科学,38(1),101-109.
王越亚,邵爱梅,2016.SVD-En3Dvar同化方法在一次飑线过程中的应用[J].高原气象,35(3):755-766.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00109.
徐慧燕,朱业,刘瑞,等,2013.长江下游地区不同边界层参数化方案的试验研究[J].大气科学,37(1):149-158.
杨艳蓉,李柏,张沛源,等,2004.多普勒雷达资料四维变分同化[J].应用气象学报,15(1):95-110.
杨毅,邱崇践,2006.利用多普勒雷达资料分析一次强降水过程的中尺度流场[J].高原气象,25(5):925-931.
杨银,朱克云,张杰,等,2015.复杂地形下多普勒雷达资料同化的研究[J].高原气象,34(5):1495-1501.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00059.
尹金方,王东海,翟国庆,2014.区域中尺度模式云微物理参数化方案特征及其在中国的适用性[J].地球科学进展,29(2):238-249.
张飞民,王澄海,2014.利用WRF-3DVAR同化常规观测资料对近地层风速预报改进的试验[J].高原气象,33(3):675-685.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00198.
张林,倪允琪,2006.雷达径向风资料的四维变分同化试验[J].大气科学,30(3):433-440.
周振波,闵锦忠,彭霞云,等,2006.单多普勒雷达风场反演的扩展VAP方法(I):方法与对比试验[J].高原气象,25(3):516-524.
Lin Y,Ray P S,Johnson K W,1993.Initialization of a modeled convective storm using Doppler radar-derived fields[J].Monthly Weather Review,121:2757-2775.
Lorenz E N,1982.Atmospheric predictability experiment with a large numerical model[J].Tellus,34:505-513.
Yue J,Meng Z Y,Yu C K,et al,2017.Impact of coastal radar observability on the forecast of the track and rainfall of Typhoon Morakot(2009)using WRF-based ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,34(1),66-78.
Zhang F M,Yang Y,Wang C H,2015.The effects of assimilating conventional and ATOVS data on forecasted near-surface wind with WRF-3DVAR[J].Monthly Weather Review,143(1):153-164.
Zhang F M,Pu Z X,Wang C H,2017a.Effects of boundary layer vertical mixing on the evolution of hurricanes over land[J].Monthly Weather Review,145(6):2343-2361.
Zhang F M,Pu Z X,2017b.Effects of vertical eddy diffusivity parameterization on the evolution of landfalling hurricanes[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,74(6),1879-1905.
Zhao K,Xue M,2009.Assimilation of coastal Doppler radar data with the ARPS 3DVAR and cloud analysis for the prediction of Hurricane[J].Geophysical Research Letters,36(12):L12803.
Zhu L,Wan Q,Shen X,et al,2016.Prediction and predictability of high-impact Western Pacific landfalling Tropical Cyclone Vicente(2012)through convection-permitting ensemble assimilation of doppler radar velocity[J].Monthly Weather Review,144(1):21-43.
陈锋,董美莹,冀春晓,等,2012.WRF模式对浙江2011年夏季降水和温度预报评估及其湿过程敏感性分析[J].浙江气象,33(3):3-12.
董海萍,袁炳,罗雨,2017.多源资料循环同化在台风“潭美”预报中的应用[J].热带气象学报,33(4):433-441.
兰伟仁,朱江,薛明,等,2010.风暴尺度天气下利用集合卡尔曼滤波模拟多普勒雷达资料同化试验I:不考虑模式误差的情形[J].大气科学,34(3):640-652.
廖镜彪,王雪梅,夏北成,等,2012.WRF模式中微物理和积云参数化方案的对比试验[J].热带气象学报.28(4):461-469.
闵锦忠,刘悦,高士博,等,2016.微物理方案及其参数对EnSRF资料同化的影响研究[J].大气科学学报,39(4):510-524.
沈菲菲,闵锦忠,陈鹏,等,2015.多普勒雷达资料同化在台风“桑美”预报中的应用研究[J].海洋学报,37(3):25-35.
施丽娟,许小峰,李柏,等,2009.雷达资料在登陆台风“桑美”数值模拟中的应用[J].应用气象学报,20(3):257-266.
王洪,尹金方,王东海,2014.单双参云微物理方案对华南暴雨的模拟对比分析[J].高原气象,33(5):1341-1351.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00119.
王坤,张飞民,孙超,等,2014.WRF-WSM3微物理方案在青藏高原地区暴雪模拟中的改进及试验[J].大气科学,38(1),101-109.
王越亚,邵爱梅,2016.SVD-En3Dvar同化方法在一次飑线过程中的应用[J].高原气象,35(3):755-766.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00109.
徐慧燕,朱业,刘瑞,等,2013.长江下游地区不同边界层参数化方案的试验研究[J].大气科学,37(1):149-158.
杨艳蓉,李柏,张沛源,等,2004.多普勒雷达资料四维变分同化[J].应用气象学报,15(1):95-110.
杨毅,邱崇践,2006.利用多普勒雷达资料分析一次强降水过程的中尺度流场[J].高原气象,25(5):925-931.
杨银,朱克云,张杰,等,2015.复杂地形下多普勒雷达资料同化的研究[J].高原气象,34(5):1495-1501.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00059.
尹金方,王东海,翟国庆,2014.区域中尺度模式云微物理参数化方案特征及其在中国的适用性[J].地球科学进展,29(2):238-249.
张飞民,王澄海,2014.利用WRF-3DVAR同化常规观测资料对近地层风速预报改进的试验[J].高原气象,33(3):675-685.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00198.
张林,倪允琪,2006.雷达径向风资料的四维变分同化试验[J].大气科学,30(3):433-440.
周振波,闵锦忠,彭霞云,等,2006.单多普勒雷达风场反演的扩展VAP方法(I):方法与对比试验[J].高原气象,25(3):516-524.