贵州省无雨日和最长连续无雨日数时空分布特征
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摘要
利用贵州省气象站点逐日降水资料,采用数据统计、空间插值、变异系数等方法,分析了1981—2017年贵州省无雨日的时空变化特征。研究结果表明,贵州省年均无雨日数呈现增加趋势,春夏秋冬4个季节无雨日数都呈现增加趋势,其中秋季增加趋势最大,其次是冬季和春季,夏季增加趋势最小;空间上呈现从西到东、从北到南增加的变化趋势;无雨日数年际变化较小,西部变异系数大于东部地区。从年均最长连续无雨日数看,黔西南州的南部和黔南州南部日数较多,变化较大。
The daily precipitation data of Guizhou meteorological stations were used and data statistics, spatial interpolation, coefficient of variation and other methods were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of rain-free days in Guizhou Province from 1981 to 2017. The results show that the average annual number of rain-free days in Guizhou Province shows an increasing trend. The number of no rain-free days in the four seasons of spring, summer, autumn and winter presents an increasing trend, in which the increase trend is the largest in autumn, followed by winter and spring, and the increase trend is the smallest in summer.There is an increasing trend from west to east and from north to south. The interannual variation of rain-free days is small, and the variation coefficient is greater in western than that of the eastern region. According to the longest continuous rain-free days per year,the days in the south of southwestern Guizhou and the south of southern Guizhou were more varied.
The daily precipitation data of Guizhou meteorological stations were used and data statistics, spatial interpolation, coefficient of variation and other methods were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of rain-free days in Guizhou Province from 1981 to 2017. The results show that the average annual number of rain-free days in Guizhou Province shows an increasing trend. The number of no rain-free days in the four seasons of spring, summer, autumn and winter presents an increasing trend, in which the increase trend is the largest in autumn, followed by winter and spring, and the increase trend is the smallest in summer.There is an increasing trend from west to east and from north to south. The interannual variation of rain-free days is small, and the variation coefficient is greater in western than that of the eastern region. According to the longest continuous rain-free days per year,the days in the south of southwestern Guizhou and the south of southern Guizhou were more varied.
引文
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[2]陈军,李小兰,喻义军,等.贵州旱涝变化特征及其与西太平洋副高和海温的联系[J].干旱气象,2016,34(3):440-447.
[3]杨涛,陆桂华,李会会,等.气候变化下水文极端事件变化预测研究进展[J].水科学进展,201l,22(2):279-286.
[4]王利娜,朱清科,翁白莎,等.1961-2012年黄土高原干旱时空分布特征[J].水利水电技术,2018,49(2):15-22.
[5]黄荣辉.中国重大气候灾害的形成机理和预测理论研究[J].地球科学进展,2006,21(6):564-575.
[6]DAI A G.Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models[J].Nature Climate Change,2013,3(2):52-58.
[7]胡娜娜,延军平,李双双,等.气候暖干化背景下黄土高原早涝时空演变特征[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(4):705-711.
[8]王澄海,王蕾迪.西北半干旱区感、潜热通量特征及近50年来的变化趋势[J].高原气象,2010,29(4):849-854.
[9]贺晋云,张明军,王鹏,等.近50年西南地区极端干旱气候变化特征[J].地理学报,2011,66(9):1179-1190.
[10]姚玉壁,张强,王劲松,等.中国西南干旱对气候变暖的响应特征[J].生态环境学报,2014,23(9):1409-1417.
[11]王芬,曹杰,李腹广,等.贵州不同等级降水日数气候特征及其与降水量的关系[J].高原气象,2015,34(1):145-154.
[12]FU G B,YU J J,YU X B,et al.Temporal variation of extreme rainfall events in China,1961-2009[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,487:48-59.
[13]REN Z G,ZHANG M J,WANG S J,et al.Changes in daily extreme precipitation events in South China from 1961 to 2011[J].Journal of Geographical Science,2015,25(1):58-68.
[14]陈学凯,徐建新,胡娟萍,等.1961-2012年贵州省极端降水时空变化特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(4):50-61.
[15]张之贤,张强,陶际春,等.2010年“8·8”舟曲特大山洪泥石流灾害形成的气候特征及地质地理环境分析[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(4):898-905.
[16]贺新春,张志学,邱凌辉.黔西南州降水及干旱特征分析[J].人民珠江,2018,39(9):76-78.
[17]严小东,宋燕,吴战平,等.基于GEV干旱指数的贵州春旱时空变化及预测模型探析[J].云南大学学报(自然科学版),2016,38(2):256-266.
[18]张勇荣,马士彬,闫利会.贵州省近55年降水事件变化特征[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(1):40-44.
[19]张宇发.贵州降水近五十年变化趋势及突变[J].贵州气象,1998,22(5):19-21.
[20]严小冬,金建德,雷云.近50年贵州降水时空分布分析[J].贵州气象,2004,28(S1):3-7.
[21]马士彬,张勇荣,安裕伦.典型喀斯特高原区气候变化特征分析---以贵州省西部为例[J].广东农业科学,2013,40(16):164-166.
[22]伍红雨,王谦谦.近49年贵州降水异常的气候特征分析[J].高原气象,2003,22(1):65-70.
[23]白淑英,莫婷,史建桥,等.近50年贵州不同强度降水日数时空变化分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,13(2):220-224.
[24]彭锐,黄河清,郑林.鄱阳湖区1959年至2005年降水过程的持续性特征与减灾对策[J].资源科学,2009,31(5):731-742.
[25]韩会庆,苏志华,张娇艳,等.1960-2013年贵州省强降水天数时空变化特征[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(11):1-5.
[26]任正果,张明军,王圣杰,等.1961-2011年中国南方地区极端降水事件变化[J].地理学报,2014(5):640-649.