1994年印度洋偶极子对两广地区后汛期降水异常的影响机理
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摘要
利用1979—2017年中国地面气象台站2 400站中广东省和广西壮族自治区(简称两广地区) 174站的逐日降水资料、英国Hadley中心的逐月海表温度资料、NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料,分析了1994年华南后汛期(7—9月)期间印度洋偶极子(Indian Ocean Dipole,IOD)对两广降水极端正异常的影响机理。结果表明,1994年的正位相IOD事件引起了两广地区后汛期偏多,影响机制主要为两方面:一方面,IOD东极子区域海温负异常时,水汽沿着印度北部-孟加拉湾北部-中南半岛-两广地区和孟加拉湾中部-中南半岛-两广地区的异常水汽输送通道向两广地区输送,使得两广地区水汽异常辐合;另一方面,IOD东极子区域海温异常偏低时,该地区对流层低层异常辐散、高层异常辐合、存在异常下沉运动,两广地区对流层低层异常辐合、高层异常辐散、受异常上升运动控制。上述物理机制共同作用,导致1994年后汛期两广地区降水极端正异常。
In this paper,based on the daily precipitation data of 174 stations in Guangdong Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region( hereinafter collectively referred to as the Guangdong-Guangxi region) at a total of 2 400 China surface meteorological stations from 1979 to 2017,monthly sea surface temperature data of the Hadley Center in the UK and monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the influence mechanism of the Indian Ocean Dipole( IOD) on the extreme positive anomaly of precipitation in southern China during the late flood season( July-September) of 1994 is analyzed.The study results show that the positive IOD event in 1994 can affect the above-normal precipitation over Guangdong-Guangxi region during post-flood season.In addition,when the sea surface temperature in the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean( eastern pole of IOD) is negative,water vapor is transported to the Guangdong-Guangxi region along the abnormal water vapor transport channels in the northern part of India,northern part of the Bay of Bengal,central part of the Bay of Bengal,central part of the Central South Peninsula,and two parts of the Bay of Bengal, resulting in an abnormal convergence of water vapor in the Guangdong-Guangxi region.At the same time,when the SST anomaly in the eastern pole of IOD is low, the anomalous convergence of the lower troposphere and anomalous divergence of the upper troposphere in the GuangdongGuangxi region will then be controlled by the anomalous upward motion,which will result in meridional vertical circulation. The above physical mechanisms work together,thereby leading to extreme positive precipitation anomalies in the Guangdong-Guangxi region in the flood season after 1994.
In this paper,based on the daily precipitation data of 174 stations in Guangdong Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region( hereinafter collectively referred to as the Guangdong-Guangxi region) at a total of 2 400 China surface meteorological stations from 1979 to 2017,monthly sea surface temperature data of the Hadley Center in the UK and monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the influence mechanism of the Indian Ocean Dipole( IOD) on the extreme positive anomaly of precipitation in southern China during the late flood season( July-September) of 1994 is analyzed.The study results show that the positive IOD event in 1994 can affect the above-normal precipitation over Guangdong-Guangxi region during post-flood season.In addition,when the sea surface temperature in the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean( eastern pole of IOD) is negative,water vapor is transported to the Guangdong-Guangxi region along the abnormal water vapor transport channels in the northern part of India,northern part of the Bay of Bengal,central part of the Bay of Bengal,central part of the Central South Peninsula,and two parts of the Bay of Bengal, resulting in an abnormal convergence of water vapor in the Guangdong-Guangxi region.At the same time,when the SST anomaly in the eastern pole of IOD is low, the anomalous convergence of the lower troposphere and anomalous divergence of the upper troposphere in the GuangdongGuangxi region will then be controlled by the anomalous upward motion,which will result in meridional vertical circulation. The above physical mechanisms work together,thereby leading to extreme positive precipitation anomalies in the Guangdong-Guangxi region in the flood season after 1994.
引文
Behera S K,Yamagata T,2001.Subtropical SST Dipole events in the southern Indian Ocean[J].Geophys Res Lett,28(2):327-330.
Ding Y H,Wang Z Y,Sun Y,2008.Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon.Part I:observed evidences[J].Int J Climatol,28(9):1139-1161.
Endo S,Tozuka T,2016.Two flavors of the Indian Ocean Dipole[J].Clim Dyn,46(11/12):3371-3385.
Gill A E,1980.Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation[J].Quart J Royal Met Soc,106(449):447-462.
Guan Z Y,Yamagata T,2003.The unusual summer of 1994 in East Asia:IOD teleconnections[J].Geophys Res Lett,30(10).
何有海,关翠华,林锡贵,1998.华南后汛期降雨量的振动和分布[J].热带气象学报,14(4):359-363.He Y H,Guan C H,Lin X G,1998.Vibration and distribution of rainfall in the post-flood of South China[J].J Trop Meteor,14(4):359-363.(in Chinese).
Huang R,Li W.1987.Influence of the heat source anomaly over the tropical western Pacific on the subtropical high over East Asia[C]//Proc.International conference on the general circulation of East Asia.Chengdu:40-51.
Huo L W,Jin D C,2016.The interannual relationship between anomalous precipitation over southern China and the south eastern tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies during boreal summer[J].Atmos Sci Lett,17(11):610-615.
Jin D C,Guan Z Y,Huo L W,et al.,2017.Possible impacts of spring sea surface temperature anomalies over South Indian Ocean on summer rainfall in Guangdong-Guangxi region of China[J].Clim Dyn,49(9):3075-3090.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.,1996.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-471.
李丽平,许冠宇,成丽萍,等,2012.华南后汛期极端降水特征及变化趋势[J].大气科学学报,35(5):570-577.Li L P,Xu G Y,Cheng L P,et al.,2012.Characteristics of extreme precipitation and its variation trend in the post-flood of South China[J].Trans Atoms Sci,35(5):570-577.(in Chinese).
林爱兰,纪忠萍,谷德军,等,2016.大气季节内振荡在华南降水预报中的应用[J].热带气象学报,32(6):878-889.Lin A L,Ji Z P,Gu D J,et al.,2016.Application of atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation in precipitation forecast over south China[J].J Trop Meteor,32(6):878-889.(in Chinese).
马慧,王谦谦,陈桢华,2006.华南前汛期降水异常的时空变化特征[J].高原气象,25(2):325-329.Ma H,Wang Q Q,Chen Z H,2006.Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation anomalies in the first flood season in South China[J].Plateau Meteor,25(2):325-329.(in Chinese).
马慧,陈桢华,毛文书,等,2009.华南前汛期降水异常及其环流特征分析[J].热带气象学报,25(2):89-96.Ma H,Chen Z H,Mao W S,et al.,2009.Analysis of precipitation in the annually first rainy period and general circulation in the south of China[J].J Trop Meteor,25(2):89-96.(in Chinese).
Matsuno T,1966.Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,44(1):25-43.
苗春生,吴志伟,何金海,等,2006.近50年东北冷涡异常特征及其与前汛期华南降水的关系分析[J].大气科学学报,30(6):1249-1256.Miao C S,Wu Z W,He J H,et al.,2006.The anomalous features of the northeast cold vortex during the first flood period in the last 50 years and its correlation with rainfall in South China[J].Trans Atoms Sci,30(6):1249-1256.(in Chinese).
Nitta T,1987.Convective activities in the tropical western pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,65(3):373-390.
齐庆华,蔡榕硕,张启龙,2013.华南夏季极端降水时空变异及其与西北部太平洋海气异常关联性初探[J].高原气象,32(1):110-121.Qi Q H,Cai R S,Zhang Q L,2013.Primarily analyses on variations of summer extreme precipitation in South China and its relation to the sea-air anomaly in northwestern Pacific Ocean[J].Plateau Meteorology,32(1):110-121.(in Chinese).
钱玮,管兆勇,2007.中国南方夏季降水与热带印度洋偶极型海温异常的联系[J].南京气象学院学报,30(1):9-16.Qian W,Guan Z Y,2007.Relationships between SSTA of tropical Indian Ocean and summer rainfall in southern China[J].J Nanjing Ins Meteor,30(1):9-16.(in Chinese).
强学民,杨修群,2013.华南前汛期降水异常与太平洋海表温度异常的关系[J].地球物理学报,56(8):2583-2593.Qiang X M,Yang X Q,2013.Relationgship between the first rainy season precipitation anomaly in South China and the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific[J].Chinese J Geophys,56(8):2583-2593.(in Chinese).
Saji N,Yamagata T,2003.Possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole mode events on global climate[J].Clim Res,25:151-169.
Saji N H,Goswami B N,Vinayachandran P N,et al.,1999.A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean[J].Nature,401(6751):360-363.
史学丽,丁一汇,2000.1994年中国华南大范围暴雨过程的形成与夏季风活动的研究[J].气象学报,58(6):666-678.Shi X L,Ding Y H,2000.Study on the formation of large-scale rainstorm process and the activity of summer monsoon in South China in 1994[J].Acta Atoms Sinica,58(6):666-678.(in Chinese).
孙建华,赵思雄,2000.一次罕见的华南大暴雨过程的诊断与数值模拟研究[J].大气科学,24(3):382-391.Sun J H,Zhao S X,2000.Diagnosis and numerical simulation of a rare heavy rain process in South China[J].Trans Atoms Sci,24(3):382-391.(in Chinese).
滕代高,刘宣飞,张增信,等,2005.澳大利亚高压的年际变化及其对应的亚澳季风[J].南京气象学院学报,28(1)86-89.Teng D G,Liu X F,Zhang Z X,et al.,2005.Interannual variation of Australian high and its corresponding Asian-Australian monsoon[J].J Nanjing Ins Meteor,28(1):86-89.(in Chinese).
Webster P J,Moore A M,Loschnigg J P,et al.,1999.Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98[J].Nature,401(6751):356-360.
吴恒强,张爱华,蒋伯仁,等,1998.华南前汛期降水与南极海冰变化的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,21(2):266-273.Wu H Q,Zhang A H,Jiang B R,et al.,1998.Relationship between the variation of Antarctic sea ice and the preflood season rainfall in southern China[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,21(2):266-273.(in Chinese).
吴尚森,黄成昌,薛惠娴,1990.华南后讯期降水的年际变化[J].热带气象,6(4):348-356.Wu S S,Huang C C,Xue H X,1990.On interannual variation of precipitation during the second rainy season in south China[J].J Trop Meteor,6(4):348-356.(in Chinese).
张爱华,蒋伯仁,吴恒强,等,1998.南极海冰变异对华南后汛期旱涝的影响[J].气象,24(7):14-19.Zhang A H,Jiang B R,Wu H Q,et al.,1998.The influence of Antarctic sea ice anomalous variance on dryness and wetness during late flood season in South China[J].Meteor Mon,24(7):14-19.(in Chinese).
张蓬勃,管兆勇,孙密娜,等,2010.SVD分析揭示的澳大利亚高压年际变化对中国夏季降水的可能影响[J].气象学报,68(6):908-917.Zhang P B,Guan Z Y,Sun M N,et al.,2010.Possible impacts of the interannual variability of the Australian High on summertime rainfall in China as revealed by the SVD analysis[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,68(6):908-917.(in Chinese).
张婷,魏凤英,韩雪,2011.华南汛期降水与南半球关键系统低频演变特征[J].应用气象学报,22(3):265-274.Zhang T,Wei F Y,Han X,2011.Low frequency oscillations of Southern Hemispheric critical systems and precipitation during flood season in South China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,22(3):265-274.(in Chinese).
Zhao Y F,Wang D H,Liang Z M,et al.,2017.On the dynamics of the large-scale circulation during the persistent severe rainfall events in southern China[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,95(2):111-125.
Ding Y H,Wang Z Y,Sun Y,2008.Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon.Part I:observed evidences[J].Int J Climatol,28(9):1139-1161.
Endo S,Tozuka T,2016.Two flavors of the Indian Ocean Dipole[J].Clim Dyn,46(11/12):3371-3385.
Gill A E,1980.Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation[J].Quart J Royal Met Soc,106(449):447-462.
Guan Z Y,Yamagata T,2003.The unusual summer of 1994 in East Asia:IOD teleconnections[J].Geophys Res Lett,30(10).
何有海,关翠华,林锡贵,1998.华南后汛期降雨量的振动和分布[J].热带气象学报,14(4):359-363.He Y H,Guan C H,Lin X G,1998.Vibration and distribution of rainfall in the post-flood of South China[J].J Trop Meteor,14(4):359-363.(in Chinese).
Huang R,Li W.1987.Influence of the heat source anomaly over the tropical western Pacific on the subtropical high over East Asia[C]//Proc.International conference on the general circulation of East Asia.Chengdu:40-51.
Huo L W,Jin D C,2016.The interannual relationship between anomalous precipitation over southern China and the south eastern tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies during boreal summer[J].Atmos Sci Lett,17(11):610-615.
Jin D C,Guan Z Y,Huo L W,et al.,2017.Possible impacts of spring sea surface temperature anomalies over South Indian Ocean on summer rainfall in Guangdong-Guangxi region of China[J].Clim Dyn,49(9):3075-3090.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.,1996.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-471.
李丽平,许冠宇,成丽萍,等,2012.华南后汛期极端降水特征及变化趋势[J].大气科学学报,35(5):570-577.Li L P,Xu G Y,Cheng L P,et al.,2012.Characteristics of extreme precipitation and its variation trend in the post-flood of South China[J].Trans Atoms Sci,35(5):570-577.(in Chinese).
林爱兰,纪忠萍,谷德军,等,2016.大气季节内振荡在华南降水预报中的应用[J].热带气象学报,32(6):878-889.Lin A L,Ji Z P,Gu D J,et al.,2016.Application of atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation in precipitation forecast over south China[J].J Trop Meteor,32(6):878-889.(in Chinese).
马慧,王谦谦,陈桢华,2006.华南前汛期降水异常的时空变化特征[J].高原气象,25(2):325-329.Ma H,Wang Q Q,Chen Z H,2006.Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation anomalies in the first flood season in South China[J].Plateau Meteor,25(2):325-329.(in Chinese).
马慧,陈桢华,毛文书,等,2009.华南前汛期降水异常及其环流特征分析[J].热带气象学报,25(2):89-96.Ma H,Chen Z H,Mao W S,et al.,2009.Analysis of precipitation in the annually first rainy period and general circulation in the south of China[J].J Trop Meteor,25(2):89-96.(in Chinese).
Matsuno T,1966.Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,44(1):25-43.
苗春生,吴志伟,何金海,等,2006.近50年东北冷涡异常特征及其与前汛期华南降水的关系分析[J].大气科学学报,30(6):1249-1256.Miao C S,Wu Z W,He J H,et al.,2006.The anomalous features of the northeast cold vortex during the first flood period in the last 50 years and its correlation with rainfall in South China[J].Trans Atoms Sci,30(6):1249-1256.(in Chinese).
Nitta T,1987.Convective activities in the tropical western pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,65(3):373-390.
齐庆华,蔡榕硕,张启龙,2013.华南夏季极端降水时空变异及其与西北部太平洋海气异常关联性初探[J].高原气象,32(1):110-121.Qi Q H,Cai R S,Zhang Q L,2013.Primarily analyses on variations of summer extreme precipitation in South China and its relation to the sea-air anomaly in northwestern Pacific Ocean[J].Plateau Meteorology,32(1):110-121.(in Chinese).
钱玮,管兆勇,2007.中国南方夏季降水与热带印度洋偶极型海温异常的联系[J].南京气象学院学报,30(1):9-16.Qian W,Guan Z Y,2007.Relationships between SSTA of tropical Indian Ocean and summer rainfall in southern China[J].J Nanjing Ins Meteor,30(1):9-16.(in Chinese).
强学民,杨修群,2013.华南前汛期降水异常与太平洋海表温度异常的关系[J].地球物理学报,56(8):2583-2593.Qiang X M,Yang X Q,2013.Relationgship between the first rainy season precipitation anomaly in South China and the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific[J].Chinese J Geophys,56(8):2583-2593.(in Chinese).
Saji N,Yamagata T,2003.Possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole mode events on global climate[J].Clim Res,25:151-169.
Saji N H,Goswami B N,Vinayachandran P N,et al.,1999.A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean[J].Nature,401(6751):360-363.
史学丽,丁一汇,2000.1994年中国华南大范围暴雨过程的形成与夏季风活动的研究[J].气象学报,58(6):666-678.Shi X L,Ding Y H,2000.Study on the formation of large-scale rainstorm process and the activity of summer monsoon in South China in 1994[J].Acta Atoms Sinica,58(6):666-678.(in Chinese).
孙建华,赵思雄,2000.一次罕见的华南大暴雨过程的诊断与数值模拟研究[J].大气科学,24(3):382-391.Sun J H,Zhao S X,2000.Diagnosis and numerical simulation of a rare heavy rain process in South China[J].Trans Atoms Sci,24(3):382-391.(in Chinese).
滕代高,刘宣飞,张增信,等,2005.澳大利亚高压的年际变化及其对应的亚澳季风[J].南京气象学院学报,28(1)86-89.Teng D G,Liu X F,Zhang Z X,et al.,2005.Interannual variation of Australian high and its corresponding Asian-Australian monsoon[J].J Nanjing Ins Meteor,28(1):86-89.(in Chinese).
Webster P J,Moore A M,Loschnigg J P,et al.,1999.Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98[J].Nature,401(6751):356-360.
吴恒强,张爱华,蒋伯仁,等,1998.华南前汛期降水与南极海冰变化的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,21(2):266-273.Wu H Q,Zhang A H,Jiang B R,et al.,1998.Relationship between the variation of Antarctic sea ice and the preflood season rainfall in southern China[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,21(2):266-273.(in Chinese).
吴尚森,黄成昌,薛惠娴,1990.华南后讯期降水的年际变化[J].热带气象,6(4):348-356.Wu S S,Huang C C,Xue H X,1990.On interannual variation of precipitation during the second rainy season in south China[J].J Trop Meteor,6(4):348-356.(in Chinese).
张爱华,蒋伯仁,吴恒强,等,1998.南极海冰变异对华南后汛期旱涝的影响[J].气象,24(7):14-19.Zhang A H,Jiang B R,Wu H Q,et al.,1998.The influence of Antarctic sea ice anomalous variance on dryness and wetness during late flood season in South China[J].Meteor Mon,24(7):14-19.(in Chinese).
张蓬勃,管兆勇,孙密娜,等,2010.SVD分析揭示的澳大利亚高压年际变化对中国夏季降水的可能影响[J].气象学报,68(6):908-917.Zhang P B,Guan Z Y,Sun M N,et al.,2010.Possible impacts of the interannual variability of the Australian High on summertime rainfall in China as revealed by the SVD analysis[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,68(6):908-917.(in Chinese).
张婷,魏凤英,韩雪,2011.华南汛期降水与南半球关键系统低频演变特征[J].应用气象学报,22(3):265-274.Zhang T,Wei F Y,Han X,2011.Low frequency oscillations of Southern Hemispheric critical systems and precipitation during flood season in South China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,22(3):265-274.(in Chinese).
Zhao Y F,Wang D H,Liang Z M,et al.,2017.On the dynamics of the large-scale circulation during the persistent severe rainfall events in southern China[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,95(2):111-125.