地震预警警报剖析:端对端地震预警系统的延迟预测
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摘要
<正>引言地震预警系统(EEW)在防震减灾中起着重要作用,是除了抗震设计(长期措施)[1]、地震预报(中短期措施)[2]和烈度速报[3]之外的另一种防震减灾手段。在过去的20年间,算法的改进、地震台网的加密以及通讯技术的更新已经使EEW成为可能。随着可用预警时间的持续增加,EEW开始对更广泛的潜在终端
引文
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[15]Hoshiba M,Kamigaichi O,Saito M, et al. Earthquake early warning starts nationwide in Japan[J]. Eos Trans.AGU, 2008, 89(8):73
[16]Hsiao N-C,Wu Y-M,Zhao L. A new prototype system for earthquake early warning in Taiwan[J]. Soil Dyn.Earthq. Eng., 2011, 31(2):201-208
[17] Zollo A, Colombelli S, Elia L, et al. An integrated regional and onsite earthquake early warning system for southern Italy:Concepts, methodologies and performances[M].//Wenzel J Z Friedemann(Editor). Early Warning for Geological Disasters—Scientific Methods and Current Practice, Springer, Berlin, Germany, 2013:117-138
[18]Allen R M,Gasparini P, Kamigaichi O, et al. The status of earthquake early warning around the world:An introductory overview[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett., 2009, 80(5):682-693
[19]Brown H M,Allen R M, Hellweg M, et al. Development of the ElarmS methodology fore-arthquake earlywarning:Realtime application in California and offline testing in Japan[J]. Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 2011, 31(2):188-200
[20] Kuyuk H S, Allen R M,Brown H M, et al. Designing a network-based earthquake early warning algorithm for California:ElarmS-2[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 2014, 104(1):162-173
[21] Heaton T H. A model for a seismic computerized alert network[J]. Science, 1985, 228(4702):987-990
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[23] Kuyuk H S, Allen R M. Optimal seismic network density for earthquake early warning:A case study from California[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett., 2013, 84(6):946-954
[24] Auclair S, Goula X,Jara J-A, et al. Feasibility and interest in earthquake early warning systems for areas of moderate seismicity:Case study for the Pyrenees[J]. Pure Appl. Geophys., 2015, 172(9):2449-2465
[25]Allen R M. The ElarmS earthquake early warning methodology and application across California[C].//Gasparini P,Manfredi G, and Zschau J(Editors). Earthquake Early Warning Systems. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany,2007:21-43
[26] Wu Y-M, Kanamori H,Allen R M, et al. Determination of earthquake early warning pa-rameters,τc and Pd, for southern California[J]. Geophys. J. Int., 2007, 170(2):711-717
[27] Bose M, Hauksson E, Solanki E, Kanamori H and Heaton T H. Real-time testing of the on-site warning algorithm in southern California and its performance during the July 29 2008 Mw 5.4 Chino Hills earthquake[J]. Geophys. Res.Lett.,2009, 36(3):2-6
[28] Hanka W,Saul J, Weber B, et al. Real-time earthquake monitoring for tsunami warning in the Indian Ocean and beyond[J]. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst,Sci., 2010, 10(12):2611-2622
[29] Steim J M and Reimiller R D. Timeliness of data delivery from Q330 systems[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett., 2014, 85(4):844-851
[30] Fah D, Giardini D, Kastli P, et al. ECOS-09 Earthquake Catalogue of Switzerland Release[M]. 2011
[31] Diehl T,Clinton J, Kraft T, et al. Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2012[J]. Swiss J.Geosci., 2013, 106(3):543-558
[32] Allen R V. Automatic earthquake recognition and timing from single traces[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 1978,68(5):1521-1532
[33] Satriano C,Lomax A, Zollo A. Real-time evolutionary earthquake location for seismic early warning[J]. Bull.Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2008, 98(3):1482-1494
[34] Rosenberger A. Arrival-time order location revisited[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2010,99(3):2027-2034
[35] Anjum B, Perros H. Adding percentiles of Erlangian distributions[J]. IEEE Commun. Lett., 2011, 15(3):346-348
[36] Oth A,Bose M, Wenzel F, et al. Evaluation and optimization of seismic networks and algorithms for earthquake early warning—the case of Istanbul(Turkey)[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 2010, 115(B10311)
[37] Zollo A, Iannaccone G,Lancieri M, et al. Earthquake early warning system in southern Ita-ly:Methodologies and performance evaluation[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2009,36(4):1-6
[38] Gallovic F, Brokesova J. Hybrid k-squared source model for strong ground motion simulations:Introduction[J].Phys. Earth Planet. In., 2007, 160(1):34-50
1德国:Landeserdbebendienst Baden-Würtemberg;奥地利:Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik;意大利:Istituto Nazionale di Geofisicae Vulconologia;意大利:Zivilschutz der Autonomen Provinz Bozen Südtirol;意大利:Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale,Trieste;法国:Réseau Sismologique et Géodésique Francais。
[2] Gerstenberger M C,Wiemer S, Jones L M, et al. Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California[J].Nature, 2005, 435(7040):328-331
[3]Wald D J,Quitoriano V,Heaton T H. TriNet"ShakeMaps":Rapid generation of peak ground motion and intensity maps for earthquakes in southern California[J]. Earthq. Spectra, 1999, 15(3):537-555
[4]Bose M,Allen R, Brown H, et al. CISN ShakeAlert—An earthquake early warning demonstration system for California[M].//Wenzel F and Zschau J(Editors). Early Warning for Geological Disasters—Scientific Methods and Current Practice. Springer, Berlin, Germany, 2013
[5]Nakamura Y. On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system(UrEDAS)[C].//Proc. Ninth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. Tokyo-Kyoto, Japan, 2011, 2-9 August
[6]Kanamori H. Real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation[J]. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 2005,33(1):195-214
[7]Bose M,Hauksson E,Solanki K,Kanamori H, Wu Y-M,et al. A new trigger criterion for improved real-time performance of onsite earthquake early warning in southern California[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 2009,99(2A):897-905
[8]Allen R M and Kanamori H. The potential for earthquake early warning in southern Califor-nia[J]. Science,2003,300(5620):786-789
[9]Cua G B, Heaton T H. The Virtual Seismologist(VS)method:A Bayesian approach to earthquake early warning[M].//Gasparini P, Manfredi G,and Zschau J(Editors). Earthquake Early Warning Systems. SpringerVerlag, Berlin, Germany, 2007:97-130
[10]Cua G B,Fischer M, Heaton T H, et al. Real-time performance of the Virtual Seismologist earthquake early warning algorithm in southern California[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett., 2009, 80(5):740-747
[11]Satriano C,Elia L, Martino C. PRESTo, the earthquake early warning system for southern Italy:Concepts,capabilities and future perspectives[J]. Soil Dyn. Earthq.Eng., 2011, 31(2):137-153
[12] Espinosa-Aranda J M, Jimenez A, Ibarrola G, et al. Mexico City seismic alert system[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett.,1995, 66(6):42-53
[13]Marmureanu A, Ionescu C, Cioflan C O. Advanced realtime acquisition of the Vrancea earthquake early warning system[J]. Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng.,2011,31(2):163-169
[14] Nakamura Y,Saita J, Sato T. On an earthquake early warning system(EEW)and its ap-plications[J]. Soil Dyn.Earthq. Eng., 2011, 31(2):127-136
[15]Hoshiba M,Kamigaichi O,Saito M, et al. Earthquake early warning starts nationwide in Japan[J]. Eos Trans.AGU, 2008, 89(8):73
[16]Hsiao N-C,Wu Y-M,Zhao L. A new prototype system for earthquake early warning in Taiwan[J]. Soil Dyn.Earthq. Eng., 2011, 31(2):201-208
[17] Zollo A, Colombelli S, Elia L, et al. An integrated regional and onsite earthquake early warning system for southern Italy:Concepts, methodologies and performances[M].//Wenzel J Z Friedemann(Editor). Early Warning for Geological Disasters—Scientific Methods and Current Practice, Springer, Berlin, Germany, 2013:117-138
[18]Allen R M,Gasparini P, Kamigaichi O, et al. The status of earthquake early warning around the world:An introductory overview[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett., 2009, 80(5):682-693
[19]Brown H M,Allen R M, Hellweg M, et al. Development of the ElarmS methodology fore-arthquake earlywarning:Realtime application in California and offline testing in Japan[J]. Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 2011, 31(2):188-200
[20] Kuyuk H S, Allen R M,Brown H M, et al. Designing a network-based earthquake early warning algorithm for California:ElarmS-2[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 2014, 104(1):162-173
[21] Heaton T H. A model for a seismic computerized alert network[J]. Science, 1985, 228(4702):987-990
[22] Allen R M. Probabilistic warning times for earthquake ground shaking in the San Francisco Bay area[J]. Seismol.Res. Lett., 2006, 77(3):371-376
[23] Kuyuk H S, Allen R M. Optimal seismic network density for earthquake early warning:A case study from California[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett., 2013, 84(6):946-954
[24] Auclair S, Goula X,Jara J-A, et al. Feasibility and interest in earthquake early warning systems for areas of moderate seismicity:Case study for the Pyrenees[J]. Pure Appl. Geophys., 2015, 172(9):2449-2465
[25]Allen R M. The ElarmS earthquake early warning methodology and application across California[C].//Gasparini P,Manfredi G, and Zschau J(Editors). Earthquake Early Warning Systems. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany,2007:21-43
[26] Wu Y-M, Kanamori H,Allen R M, et al. Determination of earthquake early warning pa-rameters,τc and Pd, for southern California[J]. Geophys. J. Int., 2007, 170(2):711-717
[27] Bose M, Hauksson E, Solanki E, Kanamori H and Heaton T H. Real-time testing of the on-site warning algorithm in southern California and its performance during the July 29 2008 Mw 5.4 Chino Hills earthquake[J]. Geophys. Res.Lett.,2009, 36(3):2-6
[28] Hanka W,Saul J, Weber B, et al. Real-time earthquake monitoring for tsunami warning in the Indian Ocean and beyond[J]. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst,Sci., 2010, 10(12):2611-2622
[29] Steim J M and Reimiller R D. Timeliness of data delivery from Q330 systems[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett., 2014, 85(4):844-851
[30] Fah D, Giardini D, Kastli P, et al. ECOS-09 Earthquake Catalogue of Switzerland Release[M]. 2011
[31] Diehl T,Clinton J, Kraft T, et al. Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2012[J]. Swiss J.Geosci., 2013, 106(3):543-558
[32] Allen R V. Automatic earthquake recognition and timing from single traces[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 1978,68(5):1521-1532
[33] Satriano C,Lomax A, Zollo A. Real-time evolutionary earthquake location for seismic early warning[J]. Bull.Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2008, 98(3):1482-1494
[34] Rosenberger A. Arrival-time order location revisited[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2010,99(3):2027-2034
[35] Anjum B, Perros H. Adding percentiles of Erlangian distributions[J]. IEEE Commun. Lett., 2011, 15(3):346-348
[36] Oth A,Bose M, Wenzel F, et al. Evaluation and optimization of seismic networks and algorithms for earthquake early warning—the case of Istanbul(Turkey)[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 2010, 115(B10311)
[37] Zollo A, Iannaccone G,Lancieri M, et al. Earthquake early warning system in southern Ita-ly:Methodologies and performance evaluation[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2009,36(4):1-6
[38] Gallovic F, Brokesova J. Hybrid k-squared source model for strong ground motion simulations:Introduction[J].Phys. Earth Planet. In., 2007, 160(1):34-50
1德国:Landeserdbebendienst Baden-Würtemberg;奥地利:Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik;意大利:Istituto Nazionale di Geofisicae Vulconologia;意大利:Zivilschutz der Autonomen Provinz Bozen Südtirol;意大利:Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale,Trieste;法国:Réseau Sismologique et Géodésique Francais。