高度城镇化背景下水系演变及其响应
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摘要
针对长江三角洲地区高度城镇化对水系剧烈影响的事实,以该区太湖平原苏州市为例,选取河网密度、水面率、分形维数和支流发育系数作为水系变化指标,运用GIS分析近50年来河网的时空变化规律,在此基础上,研究水系变化对于城镇化及降水变化的定量响应,分析高度城镇化下水系的发展趋势。结果表明:①近50年来研究区水系呈衰减趋势,河网密度、水面率、分形维数和支流发育系数分别下降5.6%、19%、1.2%和3%;区内水系禀赋差异大。②近50年来水系衰减的主要影响因素为城镇化,气候变化对其影响相对较弱;在水系变化中,城镇化的贡献率在67%以上。③随着城镇化率增加,研究区河网密度、分形维数、支流发育系数呈现先增长后衰减的"倒U型"曲线特征;苏州的高度城镇化与其水系表现出"先松弛,后紧密"的关系,二者的发展目前处于曲线右侧;未来将过渡到"高水平适应阶段"。本研究的结果丰富了城镇化与水系发展关系研究,可为其他地区水系系统的健康、绿色发展和保护提供参考。
The purpose of the study is to analyze the response of river system to the climate change and rapid urbanization process in Suzhou,Taihu Lake plain area. The study selected the drainage density,water surface ratio,fractal dimension and tributaries development coefficient as representative parameters. Based on GIS technology,the spatial and temporal variation of river networks caused by urbanization and climate change in the study area in the past 50 years was analyzed. On this basis,the study focused on the quantitative response of river network changes to urbanization and precipitation change,and the development trend of river system under highly urbanization. The results showed that:① The river system in Suzhou presented a high spatial heterogeneity and rapid descending tend in the past 50 years. The drainage density,water surface ratio,fractal dimension and evolution coefficient of branch river were decreased by 5.6%,19%,1.2% and 3%,respectively. ② Compared with climate change,highly urbanization was recognized as the stronger driving factors of river system degrading in the past 50 years. Urbanization contributed over 67% to each unit of river network change.③ With the increase of urbanization,the drainage density,fractal dimension and evolution coefficient of branch river first showed growing trend and then started to decay,presenting a curve in "inverted U shape". The influence of high urbanization to river networks grew from weak to strong. Currently,the development of river network and urbanization rate was in the right of the curve. With the mutual adaption between the urbanization and the development of river network systems,they will evolve into a high-level development stage in the future. This research investigated the developing rule and relationship of urbanization and river network systems,providing support for the river network health and green development and protection in similar area.
The purpose of the study is to analyze the response of river system to the climate change and rapid urbanization process in Suzhou,Taihu Lake plain area. The study selected the drainage density,water surface ratio,fractal dimension and tributaries development coefficient as representative parameters. Based on GIS technology,the spatial and temporal variation of river networks caused by urbanization and climate change in the study area in the past 50 years was analyzed. On this basis,the study focused on the quantitative response of river network changes to urbanization and precipitation change,and the development trend of river system under highly urbanization. The results showed that:① The river system in Suzhou presented a high spatial heterogeneity and rapid descending tend in the past 50 years. The drainage density,water surface ratio,fractal dimension and evolution coefficient of branch river were decreased by 5.6%,19%,1.2% and 3%,respectively. ② Compared with climate change,highly urbanization was recognized as the stronger driving factors of river system degrading in the past 50 years. Urbanization contributed over 67% to each unit of river network change.③ With the increase of urbanization,the drainage density,fractal dimension and evolution coefficient of branch river first showed growing trend and then started to decay,presenting a curve in "inverted U shape". The influence of high urbanization to river networks grew from weak to strong. Currently,the development of river network and urbanization rate was in the right of the curve. With the mutual adaption between the urbanization and the development of river network systems,they will evolve into a high-level development stage in the future. This research investigated the developing rule and relationship of urbanization and river network systems,providing support for the river network health and green development and protection in similar area.
引文
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[2] VANACKER V,MOLINA A,GOVERS G,et al.River channel response to short-term human-induced change in landscape connectivity in Andean ecosystems[J].Geomorphology,2005,72(1):340-353.
[3] ELMORE A J,KAUSHAL S S.Disappearing headwaters:patterns of stream burial due to urbanization [J].Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,2008,6(6):308-312.
[4] 夏继红,陈永明,周子晔,等.河流水系连通性机制及计算方法综述[J].水科学进展,2017,28(5):780-787.(XIA J H,CHEN Y M,ZHOU Z Y,et al.Review of mechanism and quantifying methods of river system connectivity[J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(5):780-787.(in Chinese))
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[6] 周洪建,王静爱,岳耀杰,等.基于河网水系变化的水灾危险性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):45- 49.(ZHOU H J,WANG J A,YUE Y J,et al.Assessment of flood hazard based on river network change:taking the Beijing-Tianjin segment of Yongding River watershed as an example[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,15(6):45- 49.(in Chinese))
[7] 程江,杨凯,赵军,等.上海中心城区河流水系百年变化及影响因素分析[J].地理科学,2007,27(1):85- 91.(CHENG J,YANG K,ZHAO J,et al.Variation of river system in center district of Shanghai and its impact factors during the last one hundred years[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2007,27(1):85- 91.(in Chinese))
[8] 韩昌来,毛锐.太湖水系结构特点及其功能的变化[J].湖泊科学,1997,9(4):300-306.(HAN C L,MAO R.The structure characteristic and the functional variation of the river systems in Taihu Lake catchment[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,1997,9(4):300-306.(in Chinese))
[9] 孟飞,刘敏.高强度人类活动下河网水系时空变化驱动机制分析:以浦东新区为例[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2006,42(4):15-20.(MENG F,LIU M.Analysis of driving forces and changes in river network under intensive human activity:a case study of Pudong New Area,Shanghai[J].Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences),2006,42(4):15-20.(in Chinese))
[10] 陈德超.浦东城市化进程中的河网体系变迁与水环境演化研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2003.(CHEN D C.Study on the evolution of river networks and related water environment during the urbanization of Pudong new area[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University,2003.(in Chinese))
[11] 徐羽,许有鹏,王强,等.太湖平原河网区城镇化发展与水系变化关系[J].水科学进展,2018,29(4):473- 481.(XU Y,XU Y P,WANG Q,et al.Relationship between urbanization and river network change in Taihu Lake basin,China[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(4):473- 481.(in Chinese))
[12] YANG L,XU Y P,HAN L F,et al.River networks system changes and its impact on storage and flood control capacity under rapid urbanization[J].Hydrological Processes,2016,30(13):2401-2412.
[13] 江苏省太湖水利规划设计研究院有限公司,苏州市水利局.苏州市城市防洪规划修编[R].苏州:江苏省太湖水利规划设计研究院有限公司,2015:1-11.(Jiangsu Taihu Planning and Design Institute of Water Resource Co.Ltd,The Ministry of Water Resources of Suzhou.The revision of Suzhou urban flood control plan[R].Suzhou:Jiangsu Taihu Planning and Design Institute of Water Resource Co.Ltd,2015:1-11.(in Chinese))
[14] 苏州市第一次全国水利普查领导小组办公室.苏州市河湖基本情况普查报告[R].苏州:江苏省水文水资源勘测局苏州分局,2012:1- 6.(The First National Water Census Suzhou Leading Group Office.The essential census report of Suzhou rivers and lakes[R].Suzhou:Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Suzhou Bureau in Jiangsu Province,2012:1- 6.(in Chinese))
[15] HORTON R E.Erosional development of streams and their drainage basins,hydrophysical approach to quantitative morphology[J].Geological society of America bulletin,1945,56(3):275-370.
[16] ANTROP M.Landscape change and the urbanization process in Europe[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2004,67(1):9-26.
[17] 徐光来,许有鹏,王柳艳.近50年杭—嘉—湖平原水系时空变化[J].地理学报,2013,68(7):966- 974.(XU G L,XU Y P,WANG L Y.Temporal and spatial changes of river systems in Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou Plain during 1960s—2000s[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(7):966- 974.(in Chinese))
[18] 韩龙飞,许有鹏,杨柳,等.近 50 年长三角地区水系时空变化及其驱动机制[J].地理学报,2015,70(5):819-827.(HAN L F,XU Y P,YANG L,et al.Temporal and spatial change of stream structure in Yangtze River Delta and its driving forces during 1960s—2010s[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(5):819-827.(in Chinese))
[19] LERNER A P.The diagrammatical representation of elasticity of demand[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1933,1(1):39- 44.
[20] ZHENG H X,ZHANG L,ZHU R N,et al.Responses of streamflow to climate and land surface change in the headwaters of the Yellow River basin[J].Water Resources Research,2009,45(7):62-75.
[21] WANG D,HEJAZI M.Quantifying the relative contribution of the climate and direct human impacts on mean annual streamflow in the contiguous United States[J].Water Resources Research,2011,47(10):411- 426.
[22] MA Z,KANG S,ZHANG L,et al.Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2008,352(3/4):239-249.
[23] KUZNETS S.Economic growth and income inequality[J].The American Economic Review,1955,45(1):1-28.
[24] 张润森,濮励杰,文继群,等.建设用地扩张与碳排放效应的库兹涅茨曲线假说及验证[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(5):723-733.(ZHANG R S,PU L J,WEN J Q,et al.Hypothesis and validation on the Kuznets curve of construction land expansion and carbon emission effect[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(5):723-733.(in Chinese))
[25] KIJIMA M,NISHIDE K,OHYAMA A.Economic models for the environmental Kuznets curve:a survey [J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2010,34(7):1187-1201.
[26] GROSSMAN G M,KRUEGER A B.Economic growth and the environment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-377.
[27] 苏州市水利史志编纂委员会编.苏州水利志[M].上海:上海社会科学院出版社,1997.(Suzhou Water Conservancy Annals Compilation Committee.Suzhou water conservancy annals[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Press,1997.(in Chinese))
[28] 高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模:EViews 应用及实例[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006:126-165.(GAO T M.Econometric analysis and modeling:EVIEWS applications and examples[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2006:126-165.(in Chinese))
[2] VANACKER V,MOLINA A,GOVERS G,et al.River channel response to short-term human-induced change in landscape connectivity in Andean ecosystems[J].Geomorphology,2005,72(1):340-353.
[3] ELMORE A J,KAUSHAL S S.Disappearing headwaters:patterns of stream burial due to urbanization [J].Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,2008,6(6):308-312.
[4] 夏继红,陈永明,周子晔,等.河流水系连通性机制及计算方法综述[J].水科学进展,2017,28(5):780-787.(XIA J H,CHEN Y M,ZHOU Z Y,et al.Review of mechanism and quantifying methods of river system connectivity[J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(5):780-787.(in Chinese))
[5] 杨明楠,许有鹏,邓晓军,等.平原河网地区城市中心区河流水系变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(5):263-266.(YANG M N,XU Y P,DENG X J,et al.River system change characteristics of urban central area in plain river network region[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,34(5):263-266.(in Chinese))
[6] 周洪建,王静爱,岳耀杰,等.基于河网水系变化的水灾危险性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):45- 49.(ZHOU H J,WANG J A,YUE Y J,et al.Assessment of flood hazard based on river network change:taking the Beijing-Tianjin segment of Yongding River watershed as an example[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,15(6):45- 49.(in Chinese))
[7] 程江,杨凯,赵军,等.上海中心城区河流水系百年变化及影响因素分析[J].地理科学,2007,27(1):85- 91.(CHENG J,YANG K,ZHAO J,et al.Variation of river system in center district of Shanghai and its impact factors during the last one hundred years[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2007,27(1):85- 91.(in Chinese))
[8] 韩昌来,毛锐.太湖水系结构特点及其功能的变化[J].湖泊科学,1997,9(4):300-306.(HAN C L,MAO R.The structure characteristic and the functional variation of the river systems in Taihu Lake catchment[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,1997,9(4):300-306.(in Chinese))
[9] 孟飞,刘敏.高强度人类活动下河网水系时空变化驱动机制分析:以浦东新区为例[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2006,42(4):15-20.(MENG F,LIU M.Analysis of driving forces and changes in river network under intensive human activity:a case study of Pudong New Area,Shanghai[J].Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences),2006,42(4):15-20.(in Chinese))
[10] 陈德超.浦东城市化进程中的河网体系变迁与水环境演化研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2003.(CHEN D C.Study on the evolution of river networks and related water environment during the urbanization of Pudong new area[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University,2003.(in Chinese))
[11] 徐羽,许有鹏,王强,等.太湖平原河网区城镇化发展与水系变化关系[J].水科学进展,2018,29(4):473- 481.(XU Y,XU Y P,WANG Q,et al.Relationship between urbanization and river network change in Taihu Lake basin,China[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(4):473- 481.(in Chinese))
[12] YANG L,XU Y P,HAN L F,et al.River networks system changes and its impact on storage and flood control capacity under rapid urbanization[J].Hydrological Processes,2016,30(13):2401-2412.
[13] 江苏省太湖水利规划设计研究院有限公司,苏州市水利局.苏州市城市防洪规划修编[R].苏州:江苏省太湖水利规划设计研究院有限公司,2015:1-11.(Jiangsu Taihu Planning and Design Institute of Water Resource Co.Ltd,The Ministry of Water Resources of Suzhou.The revision of Suzhou urban flood control plan[R].Suzhou:Jiangsu Taihu Planning and Design Institute of Water Resource Co.Ltd,2015:1-11.(in Chinese))
[14] 苏州市第一次全国水利普查领导小组办公室.苏州市河湖基本情况普查报告[R].苏州:江苏省水文水资源勘测局苏州分局,2012:1- 6.(The First National Water Census Suzhou Leading Group Office.The essential census report of Suzhou rivers and lakes[R].Suzhou:Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Suzhou Bureau in Jiangsu Province,2012:1- 6.(in Chinese))
[15] HORTON R E.Erosional development of streams and their drainage basins,hydrophysical approach to quantitative morphology[J].Geological society of America bulletin,1945,56(3):275-370.
[16] ANTROP M.Landscape change and the urbanization process in Europe[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2004,67(1):9-26.
[17] 徐光来,许有鹏,王柳艳.近50年杭—嘉—湖平原水系时空变化[J].地理学报,2013,68(7):966- 974.(XU G L,XU Y P,WANG L Y.Temporal and spatial changes of river systems in Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou Plain during 1960s—2000s[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(7):966- 974.(in Chinese))
[18] 韩龙飞,许有鹏,杨柳,等.近 50 年长三角地区水系时空变化及其驱动机制[J].地理学报,2015,70(5):819-827.(HAN L F,XU Y P,YANG L,et al.Temporal and spatial change of stream structure in Yangtze River Delta and its driving forces during 1960s—2010s[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(5):819-827.(in Chinese))
[19] LERNER A P.The diagrammatical representation of elasticity of demand[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1933,1(1):39- 44.
[20] ZHENG H X,ZHANG L,ZHU R N,et al.Responses of streamflow to climate and land surface change in the headwaters of the Yellow River basin[J].Water Resources Research,2009,45(7):62-75.
[21] WANG D,HEJAZI M.Quantifying the relative contribution of the climate and direct human impacts on mean annual streamflow in the contiguous United States[J].Water Resources Research,2011,47(10):411- 426.
[22] MA Z,KANG S,ZHANG L,et al.Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2008,352(3/4):239-249.
[23] KUZNETS S.Economic growth and income inequality[J].The American Economic Review,1955,45(1):1-28.
[24] 张润森,濮励杰,文继群,等.建设用地扩张与碳排放效应的库兹涅茨曲线假说及验证[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(5):723-733.(ZHANG R S,PU L J,WEN J Q,et al.Hypothesis and validation on the Kuznets curve of construction land expansion and carbon emission effect[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(5):723-733.(in Chinese))
[25] KIJIMA M,NISHIDE K,OHYAMA A.Economic models for the environmental Kuznets curve:a survey [J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2010,34(7):1187-1201.
[26] GROSSMAN G M,KRUEGER A B.Economic growth and the environment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-377.
[27] 苏州市水利史志编纂委员会编.苏州水利志[M].上海:上海社会科学院出版社,1997.(Suzhou Water Conservancy Annals Compilation Committee.Suzhou water conservancy annals[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Press,1997.(in Chinese))
[28] 高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模:EViews 应用及实例[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006:126-165.(GAO T M.Econometric analysis and modeling:EVIEWS applications and examples[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2006:126-165.(in Chinese))
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