对数正态分布下基于LSM航空陀螺电机寿命预测
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摘要
为了准确预测航空陀螺电机寿命,利用对数正态分布函数来描述其寿命分布,采用最小二乘法(LSM)估计了对数均值、对数标准差及加速参数,对陀螺电机寿命是否服从对数正态分布进行了K-S检验,并利用自行开发的寿命预测软件计算出平均寿命和中位寿命。结果表明,航空陀螺电机寿命满足对数正态分布,其寿命特征和温度应力的关系符合阿伦尼斯方程,预测出的陀螺电机寿命精度较高,利用精确计算的加速参数可实现在短时间(10 h)内估算其寿命,为航空陀螺电机设计提供技术参考。
In order to accurately predict the life of aircraft gyro motor, the lognormal distribution function was applied to describe the life distribution. The least square method(LSM) was employed to estimate the logarithm mean value, logarithm standard deviation and accelerated parameters. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to verify whether the life of the gyro motor could meet the lognormal distribution. The average life and the median life were predicted using self-developed software.The results indicated that the gyro motor life confirmed to lognormal distribution. The relationship between life characteristics and temperature stress followed the Arrhenius equation. The prediction accuracy of aircraft gyro motor′ s life was relative high.The life of aircraft gyroscope motor can be predicted using the precise accelerated parameter in a shorter time(10 h). This could provide technology reference for the design of aircraft gyro motor.
In order to accurately predict the life of aircraft gyro motor, the lognormal distribution function was applied to describe the life distribution. The least square method(LSM) was employed to estimate the logarithm mean value, logarithm standard deviation and accelerated parameters. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to verify whether the life of the gyro motor could meet the lognormal distribution. The average life and the median life were predicted using self-developed software.The results indicated that the gyro motor life confirmed to lognormal distribution. The relationship between life characteristics and temperature stress followed the Arrhenius equation. The prediction accuracy of aircraft gyro motor′ s life was relative high.The life of aircraft gyroscope motor can be predicted using the precise accelerated parameter in a shorter time(10 h). This could provide technology reference for the design of aircraft gyro motor.
引文
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[14]Zhang J P,Liu F,Liu Y,et al.Life prediction for white OLED based on LSM under lognormal distribution[J].SolidState Electronics,2012,75:102-106.
[2]Sanaie G,Schneider E,Schenkelberg F.Using reliability modeling and accelerated life testing to estimate solar inverter useful life[J].Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,2013,28-31:1-6.
[3]Zhang C,Wang S P,Bai G H.An accelerated life test model for solid lubricated bearings based on dependence analysis and proportional hazard effect[J].Acta Astronautica,2014,95:30-36.
[4]Huang T T,Jiang T M.Optimum design of equivalent accelerated life testing plans based on proportional hazards-proportional odds model[J].Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics,2011,22(5):871-878.
[5]Yada Z,Elsayed A E.Design of accelerated life testing plans under multiple stresses[J].Naval Research Logistics,2013,60(6):468-478.
[6]金光,冯静.长寿命卫星活动部件Bayes-Weibull可靠性评估方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2009,31(8):2020-2023.
[7]Ismail,Ali A.Estimating the generalized exponential distribution parameters and the acceleration factor under constantstress partially accelerated life testing with yype-II censoring[J].Strength of Materials,2013,45(6):693-702.
[8]孙天宇,师义民,谢奇.Weibull分布下双应交叉步加试验的可靠性分析[J].机械强度,2013,35(3):253-257.
[9]贾艳辉,张天平,李小平.离子推力器加速栅寿命概率性分析[J].推进技术,2011,32(6):766-769.
[10]郭凤英,何洪庆,李宝盛.涡轮泵长程寿命的模糊可靠性设计和评估[J].推进技术,1999,20(2):45-48.
[11]二三二厂加速试验课题组,北京航空学院余度技术课题组.航空陀螺电机的加速寿命试验和可靠性研究[J].航空标准化,1983(5):15-21.
[12]陈东生,宋永刚,徐强.基于工程可靠性分析的陀螺电机加速寿命试验设计[J].导弹与航天运载技术,2005(6):38-41.
[13]茆诗松.加速寿命试验的加速模型[J].质量与可靠性,2003(2):15-17.
[14]Zhang J P,Liu F,Liu Y,et al.Life prediction for white OLED based on LSM under lognormal distribution[J].SolidState Electronics,2012,75:102-106.