南太平洋副热带偶极子模式模拟评估
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摘要
为研究模式模拟南太平洋副热带偶极子的能力,本文利用CMIP5(CoupledModel IntercomparisonProjectPhase5)模式的模拟数据评估了15种模式模拟南太平洋副热带偶极子(South Pacific Subtropical Dipole, SPSD)时空分布的效果,并予以评分。结果表明:其中10种模式可以模拟出完整的SPSD生成发展过程,且SPSD的主要区域与观测较为接近,但其余5种模式在模拟强度、位置与观测有较大出入;所有模式在模拟SPSD生成阶段时比观测提前一个月出现偶极模态,1/4的模式海表面温度(sea surface temperature, SST)偶极异常可以追溯到6个月之前;潜热通量与SST的时空分布显示,潜热通量是影响偶极模态生成发展的主要因素。模态的变化主要受大气环流的调制,在模态发展最强时部分模式的正极上方有正潜热通量异常,即海洋向大气传递热量。分析显示模式模拟海气耦合过程中的SST模拟强度较观测偏强,气压方面与观测较为接近。
We applied 15 CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models to stimulate temporal and spatial distribution of the South Pacific Subtropical Dipole(SPSD), from which the performance of the 15 models were compared and scored. The results show that 10 of them could present a complete SPSD in development course, and the main areas of SPSD are similar to the observations. However, the rest 5 models showed large differences in the intensity and the position of observation of the SPSD. Most of the CMIP5 models showed a one-month lead to the observation result in the initial phase of SPSD, and about one third of the models could display the dipole anomaly of sea surface temperature3-6 months in the past retroactively. As shown in the temporal and spatial distribution, latent heat flux is the main factor affecting the development of SPSD under an atmospheric circulation anomaly. For the SPSD mature phase, some models could show a positive latent heat flux anomaly over the positive pole, indicating that the ocean would feedback to the atmospheric circulation in latent heat flux and form a negative feedback circulation. Therefore, these CMIP5 models perform better in sea-surface-temperature simulation than sea-surface-pressure simulation.
We applied 15 CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models to stimulate temporal and spatial distribution of the South Pacific Subtropical Dipole(SPSD), from which the performance of the 15 models were compared and scored. The results show that 10 of them could present a complete SPSD in development course, and the main areas of SPSD are similar to the observations. However, the rest 5 models showed large differences in the intensity and the position of observation of the SPSD. Most of the CMIP5 models showed a one-month lead to the observation result in the initial phase of SPSD, and about one third of the models could display the dipole anomaly of sea surface temperature3-6 months in the past retroactively. As shown in the temporal and spatial distribution, latent heat flux is the main factor affecting the development of SPSD under an atmospheric circulation anomaly. For the SPSD mature phase, some models could show a positive latent heat flux anomaly over the positive pole, indicating that the ocean would feedback to the atmospheric circulation in latent heat flux and form a negative feedback circulation. Therefore, these CMIP5 models perform better in sea-surface-temperature simulation than sea-surface-pressure simulation.
引文
李琼,郑建,王法明,2016.南太平洋副热带偶极子对南太平洋辐合带的影响.海洋科学,40(10):143-150
Behera S K,Yamagata T,2001.Subtropical SST dipole events in the southern Indian Ocean.Geophysical Research Letters,28(2):327-330
Chiang J C H,Vimont D J,2004.Analogous Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes of tropical atmosphere-ocean variability.Journal of Climate,17(21):4143-4158
Chu J E,Ha K J,Lee J Y et al,2014.Future change of the Indian Ocean basin-wide and dipole modes in the CMIP5.Climate Dynamics,43(1-2):535-551
Hirota N,Takayabu Y N,Watanabe M et al,2011.Precipitation reproducibility over tropical oceans and its relationship to the double ITCZ problem in CMIP3 and MIROC5 climate models.Journal of Climate,24(18):4859-4873
Morioka Y,Ratnam J V,Sasaki W et al,2013.Generation mechanism of the South Pacific Subtropical Dipole.Journal of Climate,26(16):6033-6045
Morioka Y,Tozuka T,Masson S et al,2012.Subtropical dipole modes simulated in a coupled general circulation model.Journal of Climate,25(12):4029-4047
Reason C J C,2001.Subtropical Indian Ocean SST dipole events and southern African rainfall.Geophysical Research Letters,28(11):2225-2227
Saji N H,Goswami B N,Vinayachandran P N et al,1999.Adipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean.Nature,401(6751):360-363
Taylor K E,2001.Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,106(D7):7183-7192
Taylor K E,Stouffer R J,Meehl G A,2012.An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,93(4):485-498
Venegas S A,Mysak L A,Straub D N,1997.Atmosphere-ocean coupled variability in the South Atlantic.Journal of Climate,10(11):2904-2920
Wang F M,2010a.Thermodynamic coupled modes in the tropical atmosphere-ocean:An analytical solution.Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,67(5):1667-1677
Wang F M,2010b.Subtropical dipole mode in the Southern Hemisphere:A global view.Geophysical Research Letters,37(10):L10702
Wang F M,Chang P,2010.Coupled variability and predictability in a stochastic climate model of the Tropical Atlantic.Journal of Climate,21(23):6247-6259
Yuan C X,Tozuka T,Luo J J et al,2014.Predictability of the subtropical dipole modes in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model.Climate Dynamics,42(5-6):1291-1308
Zheng J,Wang F M,2017.On the formation of the South Pacific quadrupole mode.Theoretical and Applied Climatology,130(1-2):331-344
Behera S K,Yamagata T,2001.Subtropical SST dipole events in the southern Indian Ocean.Geophysical Research Letters,28(2):327-330
Chiang J C H,Vimont D J,2004.Analogous Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes of tropical atmosphere-ocean variability.Journal of Climate,17(21):4143-4158
Chu J E,Ha K J,Lee J Y et al,2014.Future change of the Indian Ocean basin-wide and dipole modes in the CMIP5.Climate Dynamics,43(1-2):535-551
Hirota N,Takayabu Y N,Watanabe M et al,2011.Precipitation reproducibility over tropical oceans and its relationship to the double ITCZ problem in CMIP3 and MIROC5 climate models.Journal of Climate,24(18):4859-4873
Morioka Y,Ratnam J V,Sasaki W et al,2013.Generation mechanism of the South Pacific Subtropical Dipole.Journal of Climate,26(16):6033-6045
Morioka Y,Tozuka T,Masson S et al,2012.Subtropical dipole modes simulated in a coupled general circulation model.Journal of Climate,25(12):4029-4047
Reason C J C,2001.Subtropical Indian Ocean SST dipole events and southern African rainfall.Geophysical Research Letters,28(11):2225-2227
Saji N H,Goswami B N,Vinayachandran P N et al,1999.Adipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean.Nature,401(6751):360-363
Taylor K E,2001.Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,106(D7):7183-7192
Taylor K E,Stouffer R J,Meehl G A,2012.An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,93(4):485-498
Venegas S A,Mysak L A,Straub D N,1997.Atmosphere-ocean coupled variability in the South Atlantic.Journal of Climate,10(11):2904-2920
Wang F M,2010a.Thermodynamic coupled modes in the tropical atmosphere-ocean:An analytical solution.Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,67(5):1667-1677
Wang F M,2010b.Subtropical dipole mode in the Southern Hemisphere:A global view.Geophysical Research Letters,37(10):L10702
Wang F M,Chang P,2010.Coupled variability and predictability in a stochastic climate model of the Tropical Atlantic.Journal of Climate,21(23):6247-6259
Yuan C X,Tozuka T,Luo J J et al,2014.Predictability of the subtropical dipole modes in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model.Climate Dynamics,42(5-6):1291-1308
Zheng J,Wang F M,2017.On the formation of the South Pacific quadrupole mode.Theoretical and Applied Climatology,130(1-2):331-344