气候变暖背景下青海汛期暴雨洪涝及次生灾害风险评估
|
摘要
本文根据自然灾害系统理论和暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估原理,基于基础地理信息数据和历史灾情数据,旨在利用青海50个气象站1961—2017年汛期(6—10月)的逐日气温、降水数据,通过对暴雨洪涝致灾因子危险性及孕灾环境易损性的研究,对气候变暖背景下青海省汛期暴雨洪涝及次生灾害的风险进行评估,结果得出:(1)1961年以来,青海省汛期平均气温升高、降水增加,降水日数及强降水日数增多,极端天气气候事件频发(;2)由短时强降水及连续性降水造成的洪水、渍涝灾害及其引发的滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害呈增多趋势,且7、8月份为青海省暴雨洪涝及其引发的次生灾害的高发期,占汛期灾害发生次数的77.9%;(3)贵德县、兴海县、贵南县、共和县、同德县、化隆县为青海省汛期暴雨洪涝及次生灾害发生次数最多、风险最为严重的县。本研究通过开展暴雨洪涝及其引发次生灾害风险评估工作,对暴雨洪涝的早期预警以及防灾减灾措施的及时制定和实施具有重要意义,可为气象防灾减灾建设工作提供决策信息。
According to the natural disaster system theory and disaster risk assessment principles, this paper aims to assess the risk of rainstorm flood and its secondary disasters during flood season in Qinghai under the background of global warming by identifying the inducing factors of rainstorm flood disaster and vulnerability of hazard bearing body, based on the daily precipitation and temperature data derived from 50 meteorological stations in Qinghai from June to October during 1961-2017 and basic geographic information and disasters data. The results showed that:(1) the temperature, precipitation,(heavy) rain days and extreme climate events increased since 1961 in Qinghai;(2) floods and the secondary disasters such as landslides and debris flows caused by continuous or short-term heavy rainfall increased, and the peak of rainstorm flood and secondary disasters came up from July to August in Qinghai and accounted for 77.9% of the total disasters in flood season;(3) the rainstorm flood and secondary disasters occurred most frequently and seriously in Guide,Xinghai, Guinan, Gonghe, Tongde and Hualong. This study is of significance to the early warning of rainstorm flood disasters and the timely formulation and implementation of the measures for disaster prevention and reduction, thus to provide decision-making support for local disaster prevention, reduction and relief work.
According to the natural disaster system theory and disaster risk assessment principles, this paper aims to assess the risk of rainstorm flood and its secondary disasters during flood season in Qinghai under the background of global warming by identifying the inducing factors of rainstorm flood disaster and vulnerability of hazard bearing body, based on the daily precipitation and temperature data derived from 50 meteorological stations in Qinghai from June to October during 1961-2017 and basic geographic information and disasters data. The results showed that:(1) the temperature, precipitation,(heavy) rain days and extreme climate events increased since 1961 in Qinghai;(2) floods and the secondary disasters such as landslides and debris flows caused by continuous or short-term heavy rainfall increased, and the peak of rainstorm flood and secondary disasters came up from July to August in Qinghai and accounted for 77.9% of the total disasters in flood season;(3) the rainstorm flood and secondary disasters occurred most frequently and seriously in Guide,Xinghai, Guinan, Gonghe, Tongde and Hualong. This study is of significance to the early warning of rainstorm flood disasters and the timely formulation and implementation of the measures for disaster prevention and reduction, thus to provide decision-making support for local disaster prevention, reduction and relief work.
引文
[1] Kennedy D. Break through of the year[J].Science,2003,30-38.
[2]宫清华,黄光庆,郭敏,等.基于GIS技术的广东省洪涝灾害风险区划[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(1):58-63.
[3]马秀梅,刘晓燕,代青措.副热带高压影响下青海东部两次暴雨对比分析[J].青海科技, 2017(3):72-77.
[4]史国枢.青海自然灾害[M].西宁:青海人民出版社, 2003.
[5]伏洋,李凤霞,郭广,等.青海省自然灾害灾情与特征分析[J].高原地震, 2004, 16(4):59-67.
[6]许维俊,史津梅.青海省大降水特征分析[J].青海气象,2000(3):12-14.
[7]马元仓.青海省大雨落区预报系统技术报告[R].西宁:青海省气象台, 2002.
[8]巨克英,刘蓓,李万志. 2014年7月青海气象灾害特点及气象服务分析[J].青海环境,2015,25(3):105-108.
[9]张正涛,高超,刘青,等.不同重现期下淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价[J].地理研究,2014,33(7):1361-1372.
[10]苏军锋,肖志强,魏邦宪,等.基于GIS的甘肃省陇南市暴雨灾害风险区划[J].干旱气象,2012,30(4):650-655.
[11]孟翠丽,匡昭敏,李莉,等.基于GIS的广西暴雨灾害风险实时评估技术研究[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(26):184-189.
[12]于文金,闫永刚,吕海燕,等.基于GIS的太湖流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险定量化研究[J].灾害学,2011,26(4):1-7.
[13]盛绍学,石磊,刘家福,等.沿淮湖泊洼地区域暴雨洪涝风险评估[J].地理研究,2010,29(3):416-422.
[14]蔡冰,刘寿东,费玉娟,等.江苏省设施农业气象灾害风险等级区划[J].中国农学通报,2011,27(20):285-291.
[15]于文金,赵景旺.唐山市暴雨特征及风险评估研究[J].灾害学,2013,28(4):50-5.
[16]祝新建,臧新洲,段世萍,等.豫北气象灾害风险评估系统研究——以辉县市为例[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(29):285-291.
[17]李茜,蔡新玲,徐军昶,等.陕西省暴雨灾害风险实时评估技术研究[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(25):241-246.
[18]谢五三,田红,卢燕宇.基于FloodArea模型的大通河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估[J].暴雨灾害,2015,34(4):384-387.
[19]黄冬梅,黄卓帆,黄肖寒.基于GIS的河池市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与区划[J].气象研究与应用,2016,37(1):21-24.
[20]陈楠,黄玉芳,马慧妍.鲁西南地区主要气象灾害时空分布特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2018,34(8).
[21]黄安多.薄壁堰自由出流的试验研究[D].成都:西华大学,2017.
[22]青海省质量技术监督局.青海省地方灾害标准[S].青海,2011.
[23]周波涛,於琍.管理气候灾害风险推进气候变化适应[J].中国减灾,2012(3):18-19.
[2]宫清华,黄光庆,郭敏,等.基于GIS技术的广东省洪涝灾害风险区划[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(1):58-63.
[3]马秀梅,刘晓燕,代青措.副热带高压影响下青海东部两次暴雨对比分析[J].青海科技, 2017(3):72-77.
[4]史国枢.青海自然灾害[M].西宁:青海人民出版社, 2003.
[5]伏洋,李凤霞,郭广,等.青海省自然灾害灾情与特征分析[J].高原地震, 2004, 16(4):59-67.
[6]许维俊,史津梅.青海省大降水特征分析[J].青海气象,2000(3):12-14.
[7]马元仓.青海省大雨落区预报系统技术报告[R].西宁:青海省气象台, 2002.
[8]巨克英,刘蓓,李万志. 2014年7月青海气象灾害特点及气象服务分析[J].青海环境,2015,25(3):105-108.
[9]张正涛,高超,刘青,等.不同重现期下淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价[J].地理研究,2014,33(7):1361-1372.
[10]苏军锋,肖志强,魏邦宪,等.基于GIS的甘肃省陇南市暴雨灾害风险区划[J].干旱气象,2012,30(4):650-655.
[11]孟翠丽,匡昭敏,李莉,等.基于GIS的广西暴雨灾害风险实时评估技术研究[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(26):184-189.
[12]于文金,闫永刚,吕海燕,等.基于GIS的太湖流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险定量化研究[J].灾害学,2011,26(4):1-7.
[13]盛绍学,石磊,刘家福,等.沿淮湖泊洼地区域暴雨洪涝风险评估[J].地理研究,2010,29(3):416-422.
[14]蔡冰,刘寿东,费玉娟,等.江苏省设施农业气象灾害风险等级区划[J].中国农学通报,2011,27(20):285-291.
[15]于文金,赵景旺.唐山市暴雨特征及风险评估研究[J].灾害学,2013,28(4):50-5.
[16]祝新建,臧新洲,段世萍,等.豫北气象灾害风险评估系统研究——以辉县市为例[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(29):285-291.
[17]李茜,蔡新玲,徐军昶,等.陕西省暴雨灾害风险实时评估技术研究[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(25):241-246.
[18]谢五三,田红,卢燕宇.基于FloodArea模型的大通河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估[J].暴雨灾害,2015,34(4):384-387.
[19]黄冬梅,黄卓帆,黄肖寒.基于GIS的河池市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与区划[J].气象研究与应用,2016,37(1):21-24.
[20]陈楠,黄玉芳,马慧妍.鲁西南地区主要气象灾害时空分布特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2018,34(8).
[21]黄安多.薄壁堰自由出流的试验研究[D].成都:西华大学,2017.
[22]青海省质量技术监督局.青海省地方灾害标准[S].青海,2011.
[23]周波涛,於琍.管理气候灾害风险推进气候变化适应[J].中国减灾,2012(3):18-19.