2001-2017年陕西省地质灾害成功预报时空分布规律
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摘要
系统梳理了2001-2017年陕西省地质灾害成功预报案例,揭示了地质灾害成功预报的时空分布规律、探讨了预报时间与发生时间的关系:(1)时间上,地质灾害成功预报主要发生在7-10月,占总数的84. 88%,且在9月达到最大值。(2)空间上,陕北、关中和陕南地区地质灾害成功预报占比分别为14. 14%、32. 20%和53. 66%,地市分布以安康市成功预报最多,商洛市次之,其他各地市分布相对平均。(3)预报时间与发生时间间隔上,在发出预警信息后,3～12 h内发生地质灾害的数量最多,占总数的26. 34%,在未来12 h内发生地质灾害的比例达到了54. 15%。在此基础上分析了陕西省地质灾害成功预报的主要做法,以期进一步提高陕西省的地质灾害成功预报率,努力从灾后救助向灾前预防转变,也为其他省份地质灾害成功预报提供可借鉴与参考的依据。
Successful geological hazard prediction cases in Shaanxi Province from 2001 to 2017 are systematically sorted out. The temporal and spatial distribution of successful geological hazard prediction is revealed and the relationship between prediction time and occurrence time is discussed.(1)In time,successful geological hazard prediction mainly occurred in July-October,accounting for 84. 88% of the total,and reached its maximum in September.(2)Spatially,14. 14%,32. 20% and 53. 66% of geological hazards were successfully predicted in northern Shaanxi,Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi,respectively. Ankang City was the most successful city,Shangluo City was the second,and other cities were relatively average.(3)In terms of forecast time and occurrence time interval,the number of geological hazards occurring within 3-12 hours is the largest,accounting for 26. 34% of the total,and the proportion of geological hazards occurring within the next 12 hours is 54. 15%. On this basis,the main methods of successful prediction of geological hazards in Shaanxi Province are analyzed in order to further improve the successful prediction rate of geological hazards in Shaanxi Province,strive to change the level from post-disaster relief to pre-disaster prevention,and provide reference for successful prediction of geological hazards in other provinces.
Successful geological hazard prediction cases in Shaanxi Province from 2001 to 2017 are systematically sorted out. The temporal and spatial distribution of successful geological hazard prediction is revealed and the relationship between prediction time and occurrence time is discussed.(1)In time,successful geological hazard prediction mainly occurred in July-October,accounting for 84. 88% of the total,and reached its maximum in September.(2)Spatially,14. 14%,32. 20% and 53. 66% of geological hazards were successfully predicted in northern Shaanxi,Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi,respectively. Ankang City was the most successful city,Shangluo City was the second,and other cities were relatively average.(3)In terms of forecast time and occurrence time interval,the number of geological hazards occurring within 3-12 hours is the largest,accounting for 26. 34% of the total,and the proportion of geological hazards occurring within the next 12 hours is 54. 15%. On this basis,the main methods of successful prediction of geological hazards in Shaanxi Province are analyzed in order to further improve the successful prediction rate of geological hazards in Shaanxi Province,strive to change the level from post-disaster relief to pre-disaster prevention,and provide reference for successful prediction of geological hazards in other provinces.
引文
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[18]陕西省国土资源厅办公室文件(陕国土资办发[2016]49号)陕西省地质灾害隐患点调查认定与核销管理暂行办法[Z].西安:陕西省地质环境监测总站,2016.
[2]关凤峻,沈伟志.全国地质灾害防治分析研究与趋势预测[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2017,28(1):1-3.
[3]关凤峻,沈伟志.全国地质灾害灾情分析与防治研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2016,43(2):1-4.
[4]薛凯喜,胡艳香,邹玉亮,等.近十年中国地质灾害时空发育规律分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2016,27(3):90-97.
[5]章诗芳,王玉芬,贾蓓,等.中国2005-2016年地质灾害的时空变化及影响因素分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(12):1567-1574.
[6]李媛,曲雪妍,杨旭东,等.中国地质灾害时空分布规律及防范重点[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2013,24(4):71-78.
[7]强菲,赵法锁,段钊.陕南秦巴山区地质灾害发育及空间分布规律[J].灾害学,2015,30(2):193-198.
[8]刘传正,刘艳辉,温明生,等.中国地质灾害气象预警实践:2003-2012[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2015,26(1):1-8.
[9]宁奎斌,李永红,何倩,等. 2000-2016年陕西省地质灾害时空分布规律及变化趋势[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2018,29(1):93-101.
[10]王雁林,郝俊卿,赵法锁,等.陕西省地质灾害风险区划初步研究[J].西安科技大学学报,2011,31(1):46-52.
[11]唐亚明.陕北黄土滑坡风险评价及监测预警技术方法研究[D].北京:中国地质大学,2012.
[12]刘海南,李永红,杜江丽,等.陕西省神木县地质灾害群测群防体系现状与对策[J].灾害学,2016,31(1):144-147.
[13]李永红,刘海南,范立民,等.陕西榆神府生态环境脆弱区地质灾害分布规律[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2016,27(3):116-121.
[14]李永红,范立民,贺卫中,等.对如何做好地质灾害详细调查工作的探讨[J].灾害学,2016,31(1):102-112.
[15]王雁林.陕西省地质灾害实例分析及其致灾模式探讨[J].灾害学,2008,23(3):57-61.
[16]张国平,宋建洋,邵小路,等.近期我国大型地质灾害预报与避险案例分析[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(3):20-27.
[17]中华人民共和国国务院令(第394号)地质灾害防治条例[Z].西安:陕西省地质环境监测总站,2003.
[18]陕西省国土资源厅办公室文件(陕国土资办发[2016]49号)陕西省地质灾害隐患点调查认定与核销管理暂行办法[Z].西安:陕西省地质环境监测总站,2016.