1965—2017年东江中上游流域气温变化特征分析
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摘要
利用东江中上游江流域8个气象站1965—2017年逐日气温资料,采用线性趋势分析、小波分析和Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法分析了东江中上游流域气温的变化特征。结果表明:1965—2017年东江中上游流域年平均气温以0.17℃/(10a)速率显著上升;秋季平均气温上升最显著,冬季、夏季次之,春季不显著;年高温日数以3.526 d/(10 a)的速率显著增多。年与季平均气温和年高温日数均存在突变,各气象站年与季平均气温均大致呈自南向北依次递减分布。上游的高温日数略多于中游。各气象站年平均气温上升趋势均显著,春、夏季均以连平为中心上升幅度最大,秋季为上升趋势最明显的季节,冬季以连平为中心上升趋势最显著。各气象站年高温日数增多趋势均显著,增幅最大为连平,最小为龙川。年平均气温存在4、8—9、13—14、18—19 a的周期变化,高温日数存在2、6、10—11、25—26 a的周期变化。
Based on the temperature data from 1965 to 2017 of the eight meteorological stations in the middle and upper reaches of the Dongjiang river,the temperature variation characteristics in the upper and middle reaches of the Dongjiang river were discussed using linear trend analysis,wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall mutation test.The results showed that the annual average temperature in the middle and upper reaches of Dongjiang river increased significantly with a rate of 0.17℃/(10 a)from 1965 to 2017;the increase of average temperature in autumn was the most significant,followed by winter and summer,but not significant in spring;the annual high temperature days increased significantly with the rate of 3.526 d/(10 a).The sudden changes occurred in annual and seasonal average temperatures and annual high temperature days.The annual and seasonal average temperatures of the meteorological stations generally decreased from south to north.The number of high temperature days in the upstream was slightly more than that of the middle reaches.The annual average temperature of each meteorological station presented a significant positive trend.The highest increase is in the spring and summer,and the most obvious season was in the autumn.The most important trend is the rising trend in the winter.The annual increase in the number of high-temperature days in each meteorological station was significant,with the largest increase appeared in Lianping and the smallest increase in Longchuan.The annual average temperature presented cycle variations of 4,8-9,13-14 a,and 18-19 a,and cycle variations of 2,6,10-11 a,and 25-26 a for the high temperature days.
Based on the temperature data from 1965 to 2017 of the eight meteorological stations in the middle and upper reaches of the Dongjiang river,the temperature variation characteristics in the upper and middle reaches of the Dongjiang river were discussed using linear trend analysis,wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall mutation test.The results showed that the annual average temperature in the middle and upper reaches of Dongjiang river increased significantly with a rate of 0.17℃/(10 a)from 1965 to 2017;the increase of average temperature in autumn was the most significant,followed by winter and summer,but not significant in spring;the annual high temperature days increased significantly with the rate of 3.526 d/(10 a).The sudden changes occurred in annual and seasonal average temperatures and annual high temperature days.The annual and seasonal average temperatures of the meteorological stations generally decreased from south to north.The number of high temperature days in the upstream was slightly more than that of the middle reaches.The annual average temperature of each meteorological station presented a significant positive trend.The highest increase is in the spring and summer,and the most obvious season was in the autumn.The most important trend is the rising trend in the winter.The annual increase in the number of high-temperature days in each meteorological station was significant,with the largest increase appeared in Lianping and the smallest increase in Longchuan.The annual average temperature presented cycle variations of 4,8-9,13-14 a,and 18-19 a,and cycle variations of 2,6,10-11 a,and 25-26 a for the high temperature days.
引文
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陈颖,张灵,千怀遂.2016.华南地区近53 a极端高温日数的变化特征及其区域差异[J].热带地理,36(4):692-699,726.Chen Y,Zhang L,Qian H S.2016.Variation characteristics and spatial differences of extremely high temperature days over South China during the recent 53 years[J].Tropical Geogr,36(4):692-699,726.(in Chinese)
丁丽佳,王春林,凌良新.2011.广东地区平均气温的时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象,32(4):500-506.Ding L J,Wang C L,Ling L X.2011.Spatial-temporal variation characteristics of average temperature in Guangdong[J].Chin J Agrometeorol,32(4):500-506.(in Chinese)
IPCC.2013.Climate Change 2013:The physical science basis.Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
姬兴杰,朱业玉,顾万龙,等.2012.1971-2010年河南省夏季高温日数的变化趋势分析[J].灾害学,27(3):59-63,68.Ji X J,Zhu Y Y,Gu W L,et al.2012.Analysis on variation trends of summer high temperature days during 1971-2010in Henan province[J].J Catastr,27(3):59-63,68.(in Chinese)
李柏贞,孔萍,占明锦,等.2017.1961-2015年江西省气温变化特征分析[J].气象与减灾研究,40(3):184-192.Li B Z,Kong P,Zhan M J,et al.2017.Analysis on thetemperature variation in Jiangxi province during 1961-2015[J].Meteor Disaster Reduction Res,40(3):184-192.(in Chinese)
刘爱君.2003.广东近半个世纪的气温变化趋势[J].广东气象,(4):11-13.Liu A J.2003.The trend of temperature change in Guangdong in the past half century[J].Guangdong Meteor,(4):11-13.(in Chinese)
刘卫平,张镭,田鹏飞,等.2016.1981-2010年甘肃夏季高温天气和高温日数变化分析[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),52(4):475-478.Liu W P,Zhang L,Tian P F,et al.2016.Analysis of hot weather and high temperature day in the summer of Gansu province from1981 to 2010[J].J Lanzhou Univ(Nat Sci),52(4):475-478.(in Chinese)
马德栗,缪启龙,朱公群.2008.合肥市53 a气温变化特征分析[J].气象与减灾研究,31(3):35-42.Ma D L,Miao Q L,Zhu G Q.2008.Characteristics of temperature variation over the past 53years in Hefei[J].Meteor Disaster Redution Res,31(3):35-42.(in Chinese)
任国玉,徐铭志,初子莹,等.2005.近54 a中国地面气温变化[J].气候与环境研究,10(4):717-727.Ren G Y,Xu M Z,Chu Z Y,et al.2005.Changes of surface air temperature in China during1951-2004[J].Climatic Environ Res,10(4):717-727.(in Chinese)
魏凤英.2004.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社:69-72.Wei F Y.2004.Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction technology[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press:69-72.(in Chinese)
吴晓绚,杜尧东,杨永生.2015.1961-2012年华南地区气温的变化特征[J].气象与减灾研究,38(2):27-30.Wu X X,Du Y D,Yang Y S.2015.Characteristics of temperature variation during1961-2014 over southern China[J].Meteor Disaster Reduction Res,38(3):35-42.(in Chinese)