2018年春末南方极端持续高温及MJO影响
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摘要
本文分析了2018年春末我国南方地区持续性极端高温过程及其影响系统。本次事件自5月15日首先在江淮等地迅速发展,17日之后扩展至华南并在该地区维持至6月初。江南南部和华南东部等地高温日数比常年同期偏多6～10 d,累计近两千站次出现了35℃以上的高温天气,约是之前最多年(1991年)的2. 6倍。研究区域内有超过三分之一的测站高温日数突破5月历史极值。统计分析结果显示,春末南方高温日数与该地区上空位势高度、其西侧经向风及其上空对流活动均有显著关系,但对流的影响更为超前,约在一周左右。除和华南地区对流呈显著正相关外,春末南方高温还和热带印度洋OLR(Outgoing Longwave Radiation)呈显著的负相关,这种相关模态和MJO(Madden-Julian Oscillation)的第一、二位相对应的对流异常分布一致。对2018年的个例分析支持这一统计结果。2018年5月,MJO有20 d持续位于这两个位相,且振幅均超过1,是有MJO监测以来5月这两个位相最多的一年。因此,无论是统计分析还是个例都表明MJO对本次春末南方高温有重要影响。
A persistent extreme high temperature( HT) event occurred in southern China in late spring of 2018.It began on May 15 and developed rapidly in the Jianghuai region, then spread southward to southern China beginning May 17,and remained in the region until early June.The HT days in the southern reaches of the Yangtze River and east part of southern China are approximately 6—10 days greater than the climatology.The accumulated HT frequencies with maximal air temperatures over 35 ℃ reach nearly 2 000,which is 2. 6 times greater than the second largest value in the research period.In May 2018,more than 1/3 of the stations in southern China broke the historical records of HT days of May.The statistical analyses show that the HT days in southern China in late spring( May 16—31) are significantly related to the 500 hPa geopotential heights and convection over the area,as well as the 850 hPa meridional wind speed over its west side.However, the effect of the convection is more advanced,with a leading influence of about one week.Aside from the local circulations, the convection over the tropical Indian Ocean has a significant negative correlation with the HT frequency.A case study of circulations in 2018 also supported this statistical result.The spatial differences of convection may be linked to the activities of MJO.In May 2018,MJO remained in phases 1 and 2 for 20 days with amplitudes exceeding 1.The days in these two phases are the largest in May since 1981.Both the statistical analysis and case study indicate that MJO has an important impact on the HT events in southern China in late spring of 2018.
A persistent extreme high temperature( HT) event occurred in southern China in late spring of 2018.It began on May 15 and developed rapidly in the Jianghuai region, then spread southward to southern China beginning May 17,and remained in the region until early June.The HT days in the southern reaches of the Yangtze River and east part of southern China are approximately 6—10 days greater than the climatology.The accumulated HT frequencies with maximal air temperatures over 35 ℃ reach nearly 2 000,which is 2. 6 times greater than the second largest value in the research period.In May 2018,more than 1/3 of the stations in southern China broke the historical records of HT days of May.The statistical analyses show that the HT days in southern China in late spring( May 16—31) are significantly related to the 500 hPa geopotential heights and convection over the area,as well as the 850 hPa meridional wind speed over its west side.However, the effect of the convection is more advanced,with a leading influence of about one week.Aside from the local circulations, the convection over the tropical Indian Ocean has a significant negative correlation with the HT frequency.A case study of circulations in 2018 also supported this statistical result.The spatial differences of convection may be linked to the activities of MJO.In May 2018,MJO remained in phases 1 and 2 for 20 days with amplitudes exceeding 1.The days in these two phases are the largest in May since 1981.Both the statistical analysis and case study indicate that MJO has an important impact on the HT events in southern China in late spring of 2018.
引文
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Wheeler M C,Hendon H H,2004.An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index:development of an index for monitoring and prediction[J].Mon Wea Rev,132(8):1917-1932.
徐良炎,2003.江南高温少雨旱情重黄淮暴雨成灾损失大-2003年8月[J].气象,29(11):62-63.Xu L Y,2003.Monthly climate and impact assessments in August 2003[J].Meteor Mon,29(11):62-63.(in Chinese).
杨涵洧,封国林,2016.2013年盛夏中国持续性高温事件诊断分析[J].高原气象,35(2):484-494.Yang H W,Feng G L,2016.Diagnostic analyses of characteristics and causes of regional and persistent high temperature event in China[J].Plateau Meteor,35(2):484-494.(in Chinese).
杨辉,李崇银,2005.2003年夏季中国江南异常高温的分析研究[J].气候与环境研究,10(1):80-85.Yang H,Li C Y,2005.Diagnostic study of serious high temperature over South China in 2003 summer[J].Climatic Environ Res,10(1):80-85.(in Chinese).
Zhang F,Gao H,Cui X,2007.Frequency of extreme high temperature days in China,1961-2003[J].Weather,63(2):46-49.
张强,叶殿秀,刘海波,2007.中国灾害性天气气候图集[M].北京:气象出版社:110.Zhang Q,Ye D X,Liu H B,2007.Atlas of disastrous weather and climate in China[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press:110.(in Chinese).
张宇,李耀辉,王劲松,等,2014.2013年7月我国南方异常持续高温成因分析[J].热带气象学报,30(6):1172-1180.Zhang Y,Li Y H,Wang JS,et al.,2014.Analysis on the cause of the abnormally persistent high temperature in South of China in july 2013[J].J Trop Meteor,30(6):1172-1180.(in Chinese).
邹海波,吴珊珊,单九生,等,2015.2013年盛夏中国中东部高温天气的成因分析[J].气象学报,73(3):481-495.Zou H B,Wu S S,Shan J S,et al.,2015.Diagnostic study of the severe high temperature event over Mid-East China in 2013 summer[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,73(3):481-495.(in Chinese).
Ding T,Gao H,Li W J,2018.Extreme high-temperature event in southern China in 2016 and the possible role of cross-equatorial flows[J].Int J Climatol,38(9):3579-3594.
Dole R,Hoerling M,Perlwitz J,et al.,2011.Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave?[J].Geophys Res Lett,38(6):122-133.
高歌,2001.全国大部降水偏少北方高温旱情严重-2001年5月[J].气象,27(8):62-63.Gao G,2001.Monthly climate and impact assessments in May 2001[J].Meteor Mon,27(8):62-63.(in Chinese).
IPCC,2013.Climate Change[R].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.,1996.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-471.
Kistler R,Collins W,Saha S,et al.,2001.The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis:monthly means CD-ROM and documentation[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,82(2):247-267.
李崇银,潘静,宋洁,2013.MJO研究新进展[J].大气科学,37(2):229-252.Li C Y,Pan J,Song J,2013.Progress on the MJO research in recent years[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,37(2):229-252.(in Chinese).
Li J,Ding T,Jia X L,et al.,2015.Analysis on the extreme heat wave over China around yangtze river region in the summer of 2013 and its main contributing factors[J].Advances in Meteorology(1):1-15.
林建,毕宝贵,何金海,2005.2003年7月西太平洋副热带高压变异及中国南方高温形成机理研究[J].大气科学,29(4):594-599.Lin J,Bi BG,He J H,2005.Physical mechanism responsible for Western Pacific subtropical high variation and hot wave in Southern China in July 2003[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,29(4):594-599.(in Chinese).
马红云,董轩,孙岑霄,2018.南京地区高温天气下城市化影响的模拟研究[J].大气科学学报,41(1):67-76.Ma H Y,Dong X,Sun C X,2018.Numerical simulations of urbanization impacts under hot weather conditions in Nanjing[J].Trans Atmos Sci,41(1):67-76.(in Chinese).
彭京备,刘舸,孙淑清,2016.2013年我国南方持续性高温天气及副热带高压异常维持的成因分析[J].大气科学,40(5):897-906.Peng J B,Liu G,Sun S Q,2016.An analysis on the formation of the heat wave in southern China and its relation to the anomalous western Pacific subtropical high in the summer of 2013[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,40(5):897-906.(in Chinese).
Pezza A B,van Rensch P,Cai W J,2012.Severe heat waves in southern Australia:synoptic climatology and large scale connections[J].Clim Dyn,38(1/2):209-224.
任芝花,余予,邹凤玲,等,2012.部分地面要素历史基础气象资料质量检测[J].应用气象学报,23(6):739-747.Ren Z H,Yu Y,Zou F L,et al.,2012.Quality detection of surface historical basic meteorological data[J].J App Meter Sci,23(6):739-747.(in Chinese).
孙建奇,2014.2013年北大西洋破纪录高海温与我国江淮-江南地区极端高温的关系[J].科学通报,59(27):2714-2719.Sun J Q,2014.Recordbreaking SST over mid-North Atlantic and extreme high temperature over the Jianghuai-Jiangnan region of China in 2013[J].Chin Sci Bull,59:3465-3470.(in Chinese).
Trenberth K E,Fasullo J T,2012.Climate extremes and climate change:the Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010[J].J Geophys Res,117(D17):D17103.
王亚伟,翟盘茂,田华,2006.近40年南方高温变化特征与2003年的高温事件[J].气象,32(10):27-33.Wang Y W,Zhai P M,Tian H,2006.Extreme high temperatures in southern China in 2003 under the background of climate change[J].Meteor Mon,32(10):27-33.(in Chinese).
Wheeler M C,Hendon H H,2004.An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index:development of an index for monitoring and prediction[J].Mon Wea Rev,132(8):1917-1932.
徐良炎,2003.江南高温少雨旱情重黄淮暴雨成灾损失大-2003年8月[J].气象,29(11):62-63.Xu L Y,2003.Monthly climate and impact assessments in August 2003[J].Meteor Mon,29(11):62-63.(in Chinese).
杨涵洧,封国林,2016.2013年盛夏中国持续性高温事件诊断分析[J].高原气象,35(2):484-494.Yang H W,Feng G L,2016.Diagnostic analyses of characteristics and causes of regional and persistent high temperature event in China[J].Plateau Meteor,35(2):484-494.(in Chinese).
杨辉,李崇银,2005.2003年夏季中国江南异常高温的分析研究[J].气候与环境研究,10(1):80-85.Yang H,Li C Y,2005.Diagnostic study of serious high temperature over South China in 2003 summer[J].Climatic Environ Res,10(1):80-85.(in Chinese).
Zhang F,Gao H,Cui X,2007.Frequency of extreme high temperature days in China,1961-2003[J].Weather,63(2):46-49.
张强,叶殿秀,刘海波,2007.中国灾害性天气气候图集[M].北京:气象出版社:110.Zhang Q,Ye D X,Liu H B,2007.Atlas of disastrous weather and climate in China[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press:110.(in Chinese).
张宇,李耀辉,王劲松,等,2014.2013年7月我国南方异常持续高温成因分析[J].热带气象学报,30(6):1172-1180.Zhang Y,Li Y H,Wang JS,et al.,2014.Analysis on the cause of the abnormally persistent high temperature in South of China in july 2013[J].J Trop Meteor,30(6):1172-1180.(in Chinese).
邹海波,吴珊珊,单九生,等,2015.2013年盛夏中国中东部高温天气的成因分析[J].气象学报,73(3):481-495.Zou H B,Wu S S,Shan J S,et al.,2015.Diagnostic study of the severe high temperature event over Mid-East China in 2013 summer[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,73(3):481-495.(in Chinese).