基于MaxEnt模型的新疆鹅喉羚生境适宜性评价
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摘要
生境评价对物种保护具有非常重要的意义。本文以鹅喉羚为研究对象,2013～2017年通过对新疆各地区开展多次野外考察,共收集了180个鹅喉羚出现点数据,作为其分布点数据,选取19个气候因子、3个地形因子、植被因子、人类干扰因子等4类24种因子作为环境变量因子,利用MaxEnt模型分析了鹅喉羚的生境适宜性分布特征和主要环境变量因子对鹅喉羚分布的影响。结果表明:模型预测结果准确性较高,平均AUC(area under the curve,受试工作者曲线下面积)值为0. 973; Jackknife检验结果显示:海拔、最冷月最低温度(BIO6)、最干季平均温度(BIO9)、年均温(BIO1)、最冷季平均温度(BIO11)为对鹅喉羚生境分布影响最大的环境变量。鹅喉羚在新疆的适宜分布区主要是天山山脉南部的塔里木盆地和塔克拉玛干大沙漠周边区域、天山山脉北部的准噶尔盆地周边区域、新疆东部的吐哈盆地周边地区、新疆最北部的阿勒泰山脉周边区域等。本研究不仅揭示了新疆鹅喉羚的实际分布状况,同时为了更有效地保护新疆鹅喉羚及其栖息环境提供科学依据。
Habitat assessment is important in planning for species protection. We analyzed 180 GPS locations of Gazella subgutturosa recorded during 2013-2017 during field investigations in various regions of Xinjiang,China. Four categories of 24 factors including 19 climatic factors,3 topographic factors,vegetation factors,and human interference factors were selected as environmental variables. We used the MaxEnt model to analyze habitat suitability for G. subgutturosa and the effects of these environmental variables on habitat use. The accuracy of predicted models was relatively high with area-under-the-curve( AUC) values of 0. 973. Jackknife test indicated that elevation,lowest monthly temperature( BIO6), driest seasonal mean temperature( BIO9), annual mean temperature( BIO1),and coldest seasonal mean temperature( BIO11) were the environmental variables that most affected the habitat distribution of G. subgutturosa. Among these,the influence of elevation was most significant. The areas of most suitable habitat in Xinjiang were in the Tarim Basin of the southern Tianshan Mountains and around the Taklimakan Desert,the surrounding area of the Junggar Basin in the northern Tianshan Mountains,the area surrounding the Turpan Hami Basin in eastern Xinjiang,and the area surrounding the Altay Mountains in northernmost Xinjiang. This study provided information on the actual distribution of Gazella subgutturosa in Xinjiang and identifies important indicators that could be investigated by future studies on this species and its habitat.
Habitat assessment is important in planning for species protection. We analyzed 180 GPS locations of Gazella subgutturosa recorded during 2013-2017 during field investigations in various regions of Xinjiang,China. Four categories of 24 factors including 19 climatic factors,3 topographic factors,vegetation factors,and human interference factors were selected as environmental variables. We used the MaxEnt model to analyze habitat suitability for G. subgutturosa and the effects of these environmental variables on habitat use. The accuracy of predicted models was relatively high with area-under-the-curve( AUC) values of 0. 973. Jackknife test indicated that elevation,lowest monthly temperature( BIO6), driest seasonal mean temperature( BIO9), annual mean temperature( BIO1),and coldest seasonal mean temperature( BIO11) were the environmental variables that most affected the habitat distribution of G. subgutturosa. Among these,the influence of elevation was most significant. The areas of most suitable habitat in Xinjiang were in the Tarim Basin of the southern Tianshan Mountains and around the Taklimakan Desert,the surrounding area of the Junggar Basin in the northern Tianshan Mountains,the area surrounding the Turpan Hami Basin in eastern Xinjiang,and the area surrounding the Altay Mountains in northernmost Xinjiang. This study provided information on the actual distribution of Gazella subgutturosa in Xinjiang and identifies important indicators that could be investigated by future studies on this species and its habitat.
引文
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[23]李明阳,席庆,徐海根.基于WEB数据库和Max Ent模型的白头叶猴潜在生境评价研究[J].林业资源管理,2010(4):31-36;57.
[24]雷军成,徐海根.基于Max Ent的加拿大一枝黄花在中国的潜在分布区预测[J].生态与农村环境学报,2010,26(2):137-141.
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[29]García-González R,Hidalgo R,Ameztoy J M,et al.Census,population structure and habitat use of a chamois population in Ordesa N.P.living in sympatry with Pyrenean wild goat[C]//Ongulesungulates 91:Proceedings of the International Symposium,1992:321-325.
[30]杨维康,乔建芳,姚军,等.新疆准噶尔盆地东部鹅喉羚采食地的特征[J].兽类学报,2005,25(4):355-360.
[2]Fahrig L.Effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity[J].Annual Review of Ecology,Evolution,and Systematics,2003,34(1):487-515.
[3]曹铭昌,刘高焕,单凯,等.基于多尺度的丹顶鹤生境适宜性评价---以黄河三角洲自然保护区为例[J].生物多样性,2010,18(3):283-291.
[4]欧阳志云,刘建国,肖寒,等.卧龙自然保护区大熊猫生境评价[J].生态学报,2001,21(11):1869-1874.
[5]徐文轩,乔建芳,刘伟,等.鹅喉羚生态生物学研究现状[J].生态学杂志,2008,27(2):257-262.
[6]孙铭娟.准噶尔盆地东南缘鹅喉羚(Gazella subgutturosa sairensis)栖息地选择与食性研究[D].乌鲁木齐:中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2003.
[7]The ultimate ungulate page[DB/OL].(2018-07-03).http://www.ultimateungulate.com.
[8]Phillips S J,Anderson R P,Schapire R E.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J].Ecological Modelling,2006,190(3/4):231-259.
[9]Elith J,Phillips S J,Hastie T,et al.A statistical explanation of Max Ent for ecologists[J].Diversity and Distributions,2011,17(1):43-57.
[10]Zhang J P,Zhang Y L,Liu L S,et al.Predicting potential distribution of Tibetan spruce(Picea smithiana)in Qomolangma(Mount Everest)National Nature Preserve using maximum entropy nichebased model[J].Chinese Geographical Science,2011,21(4):417-426.
[11]黎运喜,赵军,李刚,等.基于Max Ent模型的四川小寨子沟国家级自然保护区大熊猫化学通讯位点适宜性评价[J].四川动物,2018,37(3):275-279.
[12]Bai D F,Chen P J,Atzeni L,et al.Assessment of habitat suitability of the snow leopard(Panthera uncia)in Qomolangma National Nature Reserve based on Max Ent modeling[J].Zoological Research,2018,39(6):373-386.
[13]邢丁亮,郝占庆.最大熵原理及其在生态学研究中的应用[J].生物多样性,2011,19(3):295-302.
[14]Haegeman B,Etienne R S.Entropy maximization and the spatial distribution of species[J].The American Naturalist,2010,175(4):E74-E90.
[15]初红军,蒋志刚,蒋峰,等.鹅喉羚夏季和冬季卧息地选择[J].动物学研究,2009,30(3):311-318.
[16]Behdarvand N,Kaboli M,Ahmadi M,et al.Spatial risk model and mitigation implications for wolf-human conflict in a highly modified agroecosystem in western Iran[J].Biological Conservation,2014,177:156-164.
[17]王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,等.ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用[J].生物多样性,2007,15(4):365-372.
[18]Catry F X,Rego F C,Ba92o F L,et al.Modeling and mapping wildfire ignition risk in Portugal[J].International Journal of Wildland Fire,2010,18(8):921-931.
[19]侯宁,戴强,冉江洪,等.大相岭山系泥巴山大熊猫生境廊道设计[J].应用与环境生物学报,2014,20(6):1039-1045.
[20]Araújo M B,Pearson R G,Thuiller W,et al.Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change[J].Global Change Biology,2005,11(9):1504-1513.
[21]Jiang G S,Qi J Z,Wang G M,et al.New hope for the survival of the Amur leopard in China[C]//The 7th International Symposium of Integrative Zoology-Wildlife Monitoring and Data Collection under Global Change.International Society of Zoological Sciences,2015:89.
[22]林源,徐雪怡,伊剑锋,等.基于Max Ent模型的广西黑颈长尾雉潜在栖息地预测与保护空缺分析[J].四川动物,2017,36(3):328-333.
[23]李明阳,席庆,徐海根.基于WEB数据库和Max Ent模型的白头叶猴潜在生境评价研究[J].林业资源管理,2010(4):31-36;57.
[24]雷军成,徐海根.基于Max Ent的加拿大一枝黄花在中国的潜在分布区预测[J].生态与农村环境学报,2010,26(2):137-141.
[25]Kingswood S C,Blank D A.Gazella subgutturosa[J].Mammalian Species,1996(518):1-10.
[26]高行宜,许可芬,姚军,等.新疆鹅喉羚的种群结构[J].兽类学报,1996,16(1):14-18.
[27]Macdonald D,Norris S.The new encyclopedia of Mammals[M].Oxford:Oxford University Press,2001.
[28]陈良.黑麂栖息地特征和栖息地选择的季节变化[D].金华:浙江师范大学,2007.
[29]García-González R,Hidalgo R,Ameztoy J M,et al.Census,population structure and habitat use of a chamois population in Ordesa N.P.living in sympatry with Pyrenean wild goat[C]//Ongulesungulates 91:Proceedings of the International Symposium,1992:321-325.
[30]杨维康,乔建芳,姚军,等.新疆准噶尔盆地东部鹅喉羚采食地的特征[J].兽类学报,2005,25(4):355-360.
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