多变量干旱事件识别与频率计算方法
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摘要
干旱持续时间久、影响范围大,时空连续性是干旱的基本特征,以往研究大多考虑单变量或双变量。通过给定阈值识别干旱斑块和判断两相邻时间干旱的连续性,提出了时空连续的干旱事件三维识别方法,用干旱历时、干旱面积、干旱烈度、干旱强度和干旱中心位置5个特征变量对一场干旱事件进行度量;提出了基于Copula函数的干旱历时-面积-烈度三变量频率分析方法。以中国西南地区为例,采用SPI(Standard Precipitation Index)干旱指标识别了近52年发生历时等于或大于3个月的干旱事件,一共78场,其中2009年8月至2010年6月最严重干旱事件的重现期为94年一遇。通过比较概率分布函数和Copula函数,表明在干旱频率分析时需要考虑干旱历时、面积、烈度3个特征变量。
Droughts have such essential features as long duration,large scope of influence,and spatio-temporal continuity,and a single variable or double variables were mostly considered in previous studies. By identifying arid patches and judging the continuity between two adjacent droughts based on the given threshold,a spatio-temporally continuous 3 D identification method has been proposed for drought events,measuring a drought event in terms of 5 characteristic variables of duration,area,severity,intensity,and central location;the duration-area-severity frequency analysis method based on Copula function has been proposed. Taking Southwest China as an example,SPI drought indices are used to identify the drought events that lasted 3 months or longer in recent 52 years,which totaled 78. Among them,the most serious event from Aug. 2009 to Jun. 2010 has a recurrence period of 94 years. The comparison between the probability distribution function and the Copula function indicates that the 3 characteristic variables of duration,area and severity shall be simultaneously considered upon frequency analysis of drought events.
Droughts have such essential features as long duration,large scope of influence,and spatio-temporal continuity,and a single variable or double variables were mostly considered in previous studies. By identifying arid patches and judging the continuity between two adjacent droughts based on the given threshold,a spatio-temporally continuous 3 D identification method has been proposed for drought events,measuring a drought event in terms of 5 characteristic variables of duration,area,severity,intensity,and central location;the duration-area-severity frequency analysis method based on Copula function has been proposed. Taking Southwest China as an example,SPI drought indices are used to identify the drought events that lasted 3 months or longer in recent 52 years,which totaled 78. Among them,the most serious event from Aug. 2009 to Jun. 2010 has a recurrence period of 94 years. The comparison between the probability distribution function and the Copula function indicates that the 3 characteristic variables of duration,area and severity shall be simultaneously considered upon frequency analysis of drought events.
引文
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[31] 沈艳,冯明农,张洪政,等.我国逐日降水量格点化方法[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(3):279-286.(SHEN Y,FENG M N,ZHANG H Z,et al.Interpolation methods of China daily precipitation data[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2010,21(3):279-286.(in Chinese))
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[33] LONG D,SHEN Y,SUN A,et al.Drought and flood monitoring for a large karst plateau in Southwest China using extended GRACE data[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2014,155:145-160.
[34] LU E,LUO Y,ZHANG R,et al.Regional atmospheric anomalies responsible for the 2009—2010 severe drought in China[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2011,116:D21114.
[2] MIN S K,KWON W T,PARK E,et al.Spatial and temporal comparisons of droughts over Korea with East Asia[J].International Journal of Climatology,2003,23(2):223-233.
[3] GOCIC M,TRAJKOVIC S.Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in Serbia[J].Journal of Hydrology,2014,510:110-123.
[4] CHEN Z,YANG G.Analysis of drought hazards in North China:distribution and interpretation[J].Natural Hazards,2013,65(1):279-294.
[5] KIM S,KIM B,AHN T J,et al.Spatio-temporal characterization of Korean drought using severity-area-duration curve analysis[J].Water and Environment Journal,2011,25(1):22-30.
[6] SONG X,LI L,FU G,et al.Spatial-temporal variations of spring drought based on spring-composite index values for the Songnen Plain,Northeast China[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2014,116(3/4):371-384.
[7] ANDREADIS K M,CLARK E A,WOOD A W,et al.Twentieth-century drought in the conterminous united states[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2005,6(6):985-1001.
[8] VAN ROOY M P.A rainfall anomaly index independent of time and space[J].Notos,1965,14:43- 48.
[9] WANG A,LETTENMAIER D P,SHEFFIELD J.Soil moisture drought in China,1950—2006[J].Journal of Climate,2011,24(13):3257-3271.
[10] 刘慧,田富强,汤秋鸿,等.基于水文模型和遥感的干旱评估和重建[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2013,53(5):613- 617.(LIU H,TIAN F Q,TANG Q H,et al.Drought evaluation and reconstruction based on a hydrologic model and remote sensing[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2013,53(5):613- 617.(in Chinese))
[11] XU K,YANG D,YANG H,et al.Spatio-temporal variation of drought in China during 1961—2012:a climatic perspective[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,526:253-264.
[12] 屈艳萍,郦建强,吕娟,等.旱灾风险定量评估总体框架及其关键技术[J].水科学进展,2014,25(2):297-304.(QU Y P,LI J Q,LYU J,et al.A quantitative frame work for assessing drought disaster risk and key techniques[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(2):297-304.(in Chinese))
[13] SONG S,SINGH V P.Meta-elliptical copulas for drought frequency analysis of periodic hydrologic data[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2010,24(3):425- 444.
[14] SONG S,SINGH V P.Frequency analysis of droughts using the Plackett copula and parameter estimation by genetic algorithm[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2010,24(5):783-805.
[15] SHIAU J,MODARRES R.Copula-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis in Iran[J].Meteorological Applications,2009,16(4):481- 489.
[16] CANCELLIERE A,SALAS J D.Drought length properties for periodic-stochastic hydrologic data[J].Water Resources Research,2004,40(2):W02503.
[17] SHIAU J T.Fitting drought duration and severity with two-dimensional copulas[J].Water Resources Management,2006,20(5):795-815.
[18] MA M,SONG S,REN L,et al.Multivariate drought characteristics using trivariate Gaussian and Student t copulas[J].Hydrological Processes,2013,27(8):1175-1190.
[19] 马明卫,宋松柏.椭圆型Copulas函数在西安站干旱特征分析中的应用[J].水文,2010,30(4):36- 42.(MA M W,SONG S B.Elliptical copulas for drought characteristics analysis of Xi'an gauging station[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2010,30(4):36- 42.(in Chinese))
[20] 张雨,宋松柏.Copulas 函数在多变量干旱联合分布中的应用[J].灌溉排水学报,2010,29(3):64- 68.(ZHANG Y,SONG S B.Application of Archimedean copulas in multi-variable drought distribution[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2010,29(3):64- 68.(in Chinese))
[21] 宋松柏,聂荣.基于非对称阿基米德Copula的多变量水文干旱联合概率研究[J].水力发电学报,2011,30(4):20-29.(SONG S B,NIE R.Asymmetric Archimedean Copulas for multivariate hydrological drought frequency analysis[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2011,30(4):20-29.(in Chinese))
[22] 程亮,金菊良,郦建强,等.干旱频率分析研究进展[J].水科学进展,2013,24(2):296-302.(CHEN L,JIN J L,LI J Q,et al.Advance in the study of drought frequency analysis[J].Advances in Water Science.2013,24(2):296-302.(in Chinese))
[23] 许凯,徐翔宇,李爱花,等.基于概率统计方法的承德市农业旱灾风险评估[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(14):139-146.(XU K,XU X Y,LI A H,et al.Assessing agricultural drought disaster risk in Chengde city using stochastic method[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2013,29(14):139-146.(in Chinese))
[24] WONG G,van LANEN H,TORFS P.Probabilistic analysis of hydrological drought characteristics using meteorological drought[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2013,58(2):253-270.
[25] SHIAU J T,FENG S,NADARAJAH S.Assessment of hydrological droughts for the Yellow River,China,using copulas[J].Hydrological Processes,2007,21(16):2157-2163.
[26] MA M,SONG S,REN L,et al.Multivariate drought characteristics using trivariate Gaussian and Student t copulas[J].Hydrological Processes,2013,27(8):1175-1190.
[27] CHEN L,SINGH V P,GUO S,et al.Drought analysis using copulas[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2012,18(7):797-808.
[28] SHEFFIELD J,ANDREADIS K M,WOOD E F,et al.Global and continental drought in the second half of the twentieth century:severity-area-duration analysis and temporal variability of large-scale events[J].Journal of Climate,2009,22(8):1962-1981.
[29] 张宇亮,蒋尚明,金菊良,等.基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法[J].水科学进展,2017,28(5):691-701.(ZHANG Y L,JIANG S M,JIN J L,et al.Computational methods of drought return periods based on the regional agricultural water consumption[J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(5):691-701.(in Chinese))
[30] QIU J.China drought highlights future climate threats[J].Nature News,2010,465(7295):142-143.
[31] 沈艳,冯明农,张洪政,等.我国逐日降水量格点化方法[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(3):279-286.(SHEN Y,FENG M N,ZHANG H Z,et al.Interpolation methods of China daily precipitation data[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2010,21(3):279-286.(in Chinese))
[32] 中国气象局.中国气象灾害年鉴:2011[M].北京:气象出版社,2012:639- 642.(China Meteorological Administration.China meteorological disaster yearbook:2011[M].Beijing:Meteorological Press,2012:639- 642.(in Chinese))
[33] LONG D,SHEN Y,SUN A,et al.Drought and flood monitoring for a large karst plateau in Southwest China using extended GRACE data[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2014,155:145-160.
[34] LU E,LUO Y,ZHANG R,et al.Regional atmospheric anomalies responsible for the 2009—2010 severe drought in China[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2011,116:D21114.