基于集对分析的区域城市地价系统稳定性研究——以京津冀地区为例
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摘要
从系统论出发,利用集对理论,以京津冀为研究区域,构建包括城市区位与环境、城市经济发展水平、城市社会发展水平三个准则层17个指标层的城市地价系统稳定性综合评价模型,判定京津冀地区2007～2014年地价系统稳定性,总结地价稳定性的发展趋势。结果表明:1)北京市地价系统处于"稳定"状态,廊坊市由于其现实情况,处于不稳定状态,其他10个城市地价系统均处于"一般稳定"状态;2)当i=1时,北京市地价系统处于"稳定"状态,其他11个城市地价系统均处于"一般稳定"状态;当i=0时,唐山和衡水市地价系统处于"不稳定"状态,其他9个城市地价系统均处于"一般稳定"状态;当i=-1时,北京、承德市地价系统处于"一般稳定"状态,其他10个城市地价系统均处于"不稳定"状态;3)北京市地价系统以同一的趋势存在,其他11个城市地价系统以对立的趋势存在;4)北京、沧州、保定、石家庄、天津、张家口、邯郸、承德、邢台9个城市集对悲观势与乐观势变化范围较大,而衡水、秦皇岛、唐山3个城市变化范围较小。对区域城市地价系统稳定性进行研究,旨在为政府部门加强对城市地价的管理、实现土地资源合理配置提供科学依据。
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was chosen as a sample by using set pair theory to build a comprehensive evaluation model of urban land price system stability based on 17 index layers of three criteria including the location and environment,city urban economy development level,urban social development level. Then the stability of land price system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2007 to 2014 was analyzed and the development trend of land price stability was summarized. As result,the set pair theory could be applied to the stability of the land price system,and the value of the difference degree i can reflect the stability state of the land price system. At present,the land price system of Beijing is in a"stable"state,the land price system in other 11 cities are in a " general stability" state except LangFang. Beijing's land price system is the same trend there,and the other 11 cities' are the opposing trends. Set pair potentials of pessimistic and optimistic of Beijing,Cangzhou,Baoding,Shijiazhuang,Tianjin,Zhangjiakou,Handan,Chengde and Xingtai change on a larger range,and the system is likely to improve,but that of Hengshui,Qinhuangdao and Tangshan change in a small range and it is difficult to improve in a short time. The study on the stability of regional urban land price system provides a scientific basis for government departments to strengthen the management of urban land price and realize the rational allocation of land resources.
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was chosen as a sample by using set pair theory to build a comprehensive evaluation model of urban land price system stability based on 17 index layers of three criteria including the location and environment,city urban economy development level,urban social development level. Then the stability of land price system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2007 to 2014 was analyzed and the development trend of land price stability was summarized. As result,the set pair theory could be applied to the stability of the land price system,and the value of the difference degree i can reflect the stability state of the land price system. At present,the land price system of Beijing is in a"stable"state,the land price system in other 11 cities are in a " general stability" state except LangFang. Beijing's land price system is the same trend there,and the other 11 cities' are the opposing trends. Set pair potentials of pessimistic and optimistic of Beijing,Cangzhou,Baoding,Shijiazhuang,Tianjin,Zhangjiakou,Handan,Chengde and Xingtai change on a larger range,and the system is likely to improve,but that of Hengshui,Qinhuangdao and Tangshan change in a small range and it is difficult to improve in a short time. The study on the stability of regional urban land price system provides a scientific basis for government departments to strengthen the management of urban land price and realize the rational allocation of land resources.
引文
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[20]隋雪艳,吴巍,周生路,等.都市新区住宅地价空间异质性驱动因素研究—基于空间扩展模型和GWR模型的对比[J].地理科学,2015,35(6):683-689.
[2]崔英伟,董宝海,李涛.从系统论观点看城市经济、城市建设、城市环境三方面规划实践的统一[J].河北建筑工程学院学报,2003,21(4):21-23.
[3]曹天邦,黄克龙,李剑波,等.基于GWR的南京市住宅地价空间分异及演变[J].地理研究,2013,32(12):2324-2333.
[4]李玲,朱道林,胡克林.北京市城区住宅地价的时空变化规律[J].经济地理,2011,31(4):655-659.
[5]朱春龙.武汉市住宅价格时空演变特征及其影响因素研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2010.
[6]杨奎奇,汪应宏,张绍良,等.江苏省城市地价影响因素分析与空间结构研究[J].人文地理,2013,28(1):69-74.
[7]王爱,陆林,包善驹,等.基于GWR模型的合肥居住地价影响因素研究[J].人文地理,2017,32(5):89-97.
[8]张居峰.城市地价合理性变动的实证研究[D].哈尔滨:东北农业大学,2007.
[9]蔡剑红,朱道林.多空间尺度普通住宅用地的合理地价研究[J].中国房地产,2012(4):38-42.
[10]吴跃民.城市地价空间分布的流场理论研究[J].湘潮,2008(7):76-77.
[11]江凌,吕光辉,汪溪远,等.城市化进程中的绿洲生态系统稳定性评价探讨[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,20(2):28-32.
[12]Zhang Z B,Yan C,Krebs C J,Chr N. Stenseth. Ecological non-monotonicity and its effects on complexity and stability of populations,communities and ecosystems[J]. Ecological Modelling,2015,312(24):374-384.
[13]王玲玲,曾光明,黄国和,等.湖滨湿地生态系统稳定性评价[J].生态学报,2005,25(12):3406-3410.
[14]周迎雪,李贻学,孙仪阳.基于TOPSIS的聊城市土地生态经济系统稳定性分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(6):26-31.
[15]廖静玉,宋长春,郭跃东,等.三江平原湿地生态系统稳定性评价指标体系和评价方法[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(10):89-94.
[16]张福群.卧龙湖湿地生态系统稳定性分析与评价研究[D].沈阳:东北大学,2010.
[17]董黎明,冯长春.城市土地综合经济评价的理论方法初探[J].地理学报,1989,44(3):323-333.
[18]华文,范黎,吴群,等.城市地价水平影响因素的相关分析—以江苏省为例[J].经济地理,2005,25(2):203-205,218.
[19]朱宁.省域城市地价空间分异的影响因素研究—以江苏省为例[D].南京市:南京农业大学,2008.
[20]隋雪艳,吴巍,周生路,等.都市新区住宅地价空间异质性驱动因素研究—基于空间扩展模型和GWR模型的对比[J].地理科学,2015,35(6):683-689.