洗钱对跨境资本流动的影响
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摘要
近年来跨境资本流动一直是国内外学者研究的热点问题,但目前学界缺乏洗钱行为对跨境资本流动的影响及其路径的相关实证研究。文章以2005～2015年全球60个国家(地区)的面板数据为样本,引入经济发展作为中介变量,研究洗钱对跨境资本流动的影响。研究结果表明:跨境资本在洗钱风险高与洗钱吸引力强的国家流动更加频繁,经济发展在洗钱与跨境资本流动的正向效应关系中,中介效应分别为14. 98%和11. 39%。
In recent years,cross-border capital flow has been a hot topic studied by domestic and foreign scholars,but there is a lack of empirical research on the impact of money laundering on cross-border capital flow and its path. Taking panel data of 60 countries( regions) from 2005 to 2015 as samples,this paper introduced economic development as the intermediary variable to study the impact of money laundering on cross-border capital flows. The research results show that cross-border capital flows are more frequent in countries with high risk of money laundering and strong attraction of money laundering. In the relationship between the positive effects of money laundering and cross-border capital flows,the intermediary effects are 14. 98% and 11. 39%,respectively. The conclusion of this study not only enriches and expands the research on cross-border capital flow,but also provides a basis for China's cross-border anti-money laundering.
In recent years,cross-border capital flow has been a hot topic studied by domestic and foreign scholars,but there is a lack of empirical research on the impact of money laundering on cross-border capital flow and its path. Taking panel data of 60 countries( regions) from 2005 to 2015 as samples,this paper introduced economic development as the intermediary variable to study the impact of money laundering on cross-border capital flows. The research results show that cross-border capital flows are more frequent in countries with high risk of money laundering and strong attraction of money laundering. In the relationship between the positive effects of money laundering and cross-border capital flows,the intermediary effects are 14. 98% and 11. 39%,respectively. The conclusion of this study not only enriches and expands the research on cross-border capital flow,but also provides a basis for China's cross-border anti-money laundering.
引文
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[20]马宇,杜萌.新兴市场国际资本流动影响因素——基于美元因素和GMM方法的实证分析[J].财贸经济,2013(1):46-55.
[21]梅德祥,高增安.中国产生的洗钱规模及其流出研究[J].经济学家,2015a(1):64-72.
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[23]梅德祥,李立恒,高增安.基于洗钱视角的我国对外直接投资研究[J].南方经济,2015b(3):77-92.
[24]梅德祥.世界流入中国的洗钱规模研究[J].经济与管理研究,2015d,36(9):43-52.
[25]潘功胜.中国外汇市场的政策框架及管理取向[J].当代金融家,2017(5):27-31.
[26]王倩,周向南.中国跨境资金异常流动:监测、驱动与对策[J].南京师大学报(社会科学版),2016(4):97-105.
[27]温忠麟.张雷,侯杰泰,刘红云.中介效应检验程序及其应用[J].心理学报,2004(5):614-620.
[28]杨彦龙.国际金融监管改革的方向和路径——基于国外文献梳理的思考[J].西部论坛,2018,28(2):116-124.
[29]杨子晖,陈创练.金融深化条件下的跨境资本流动效应研究[J].金融研究,2015(5):34-49.
[30]张广婷.新兴市场国家跨境资本流动的驱动因素研究——基于因子分析法的实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2016(10):42-61+135-136.
[31]张明,肖立晟.国际资本流动的驱动因素:新兴市场与发达经济体的比较[J].世界经济,2014,37(8):151-172.
[32]张燕玲.金融业反洗钱问题研究[J].国际金融研究,2002(11):4-12.
[33]赵新泉,刘文革.金融发展与国际资本流动:新兴市场与发达经济体的比较[J].经济学家,2016(6):76-84.
[2] Balakina O,D'Andrea A,Masciandaro D.. Bank secrecy in offshore centres and capital flows:Does blacklisting matter?[J]. Review of Financial Economics,2017,32:30-57.
[3] Bartlett B L.. The negative effects of money laundering on economic development[J]. Asian Development Bank Regional Technical Assistance Project No,2002,5967.
[4] Cavallo E A,Frankel J A.. Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops,or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,2008,27(8):1430-1452.
[5] Chinn M D,Ito H.. A new measure of financial openness[J]. Journal of comparative policy analysis,2008,10(3):309-322.
[6] Forbes K J,Warnock F E.. Capital flow waves:Surges,stops,flight,and retrenchment[J]. Journal of International Economics,2012,88(2):235-251.
[7] Giordani P E,Ruta M,Weisfeld H,et al.. Capital Flow Deflection[J]. Journal of International Economics,2017,105(145):102-118.
[8] Giovanni J D.. What Drives Capital Flows? The Case of Cross-border M&A Activity and Financial Deepening[J]. Journal of International Economics,2005,65(1):127-149.
[9] Julio B,Yook Y.. Policy uncertainty,irreversibility,and cross-border flows of capital[J]. Journal of International Economics,2016,103:13-26.
[10] Kar D,Spanjers J.. Illicit Financial Flows from Developing Countries:2003-2012[J]. 2014.
[11] Levine R,Zervos S.. Capital control liberalization and stock market development[J]. World Development,1998,26(7):1169-1183.
[12] Perez M F,Brada J C,Drabek Z.. Illicit money flows as motives for FDI[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,2012,40(1):108-126.
[13] Quirk P J.. Macroeconomic implications of money laundering[J]. Trends in Organized Crime,1997,2(3):10-14.
[14] Unger B,Busuioc E M.. The scale and impacts of money laundering[M]. Edward Elgar Publishing,2007.
[15] Unger B,Siegel M,Ferwerda J,et al.. The amounts and effects of money laundering[J]. Report for the Ministry of Finance,2006:9-21.
[16] Walker J.. How big is global money laundering?[J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control,1999,3(1):25-37.
[17]大卫·科兹.中国如何防范金融风险和抵御新自由主义思潮——《西部论坛》主编访谈大卫·科兹教授[J].西部论坛,2018,28(4):1-3.
[18]范小云,刘粮,陈雷.从“货币三元悖论”到“金融三元悖论”——国际资本流动研究的新思路[J].国际经济评论,2018(4):126-144+7-8.
[19]刘俊奇,安英俭.资本项目开放下中国跨境洗钱的新趋势及监管对策[J].新金融,2017(2):60-63.
[20]马宇,杜萌.新兴市场国际资本流动影响因素——基于美元因素和GMM方法的实证分析[J].财贸经济,2013(1):46-55.
[21]梅德祥,高增安.中国产生的洗钱规模及其流出研究[J].经济学家,2015a(1):64-72.
[22]梅德祥,蒋旭,高增安.洗钱对我国外商直接投资的影响——基于上市公司面板数据的实证研究[J].财经论丛,2015c(7):48-55.
[23]梅德祥,李立恒,高增安.基于洗钱视角的我国对外直接投资研究[J].南方经济,2015b(3):77-92.
[24]梅德祥.世界流入中国的洗钱规模研究[J].经济与管理研究,2015d,36(9):43-52.
[25]潘功胜.中国外汇市场的政策框架及管理取向[J].当代金融家,2017(5):27-31.
[26]王倩,周向南.中国跨境资金异常流动:监测、驱动与对策[J].南京师大学报(社会科学版),2016(4):97-105.
[27]温忠麟.张雷,侯杰泰,刘红云.中介效应检验程序及其应用[J].心理学报,2004(5):614-620.
[28]杨彦龙.国际金融监管改革的方向和路径——基于国外文献梳理的思考[J].西部论坛,2018,28(2):116-124.
[29]杨子晖,陈创练.金融深化条件下的跨境资本流动效应研究[J].金融研究,2015(5):34-49.
[30]张广婷.新兴市场国家跨境资本流动的驱动因素研究——基于因子分析法的实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2016(10):42-61+135-136.
[31]张明,肖立晟.国际资本流动的驱动因素:新兴市场与发达经济体的比较[J].世界经济,2014,37(8):151-172.
[32]张燕玲.金融业反洗钱问题研究[J].国际金融研究,2002(11):4-12.
[33]赵新泉,刘文革.金融发展与国际资本流动:新兴市场与发达经济体的比较[J].经济学家,2016(6):76-84.
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