煤层气选区评价方法探讨——以准噶尔盆地南缘为例
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摘要
煤层气选区评价历来是煤层气勘探的一个重要环节,其中评价方法的选择关系到能否准确命中目标靶区,近年来的选区评价方法从定性评价逐渐发展为定量评价。以准噶尔盆地南缘为评价区,从定性—半定量—定量评价的思路方法着手,首先选取了典型的5种评价方法,系统地论述了其在煤层气评价选区中的利弊,发现定性评价方法仍有着其广泛运用的空间,虽然现有的定量评价方法进一步降低了主观因素影响,但这5种评价方法均不同程度地存在着主观性、经验性判断。在对这5种方法进行异同点总结的基础之上,笔者进一步引进了主成分分析法这一定量评价方法,避免了主观因素影响,优选出四工河—大黄山区段为有利区段,与前述5种方法结果相同,表明主成分分析法运用于煤层气选区评价是合理可靠的,完全避免了主观因素的影响成为其选区评价的最大优点。在综合分析了各评价方法的优缺点之后,提倡运用初步定性判断—定量评价研究—定性评价验证的思路来进行煤层气的选区评价。
Selected areas evaluation of coalbed methane has always been an important link in the process of coalbed methane( CBM) exploration,in which the evaluation method is the key to favorable area.The methods gradually developed from the qualitative evaluation to quantitative evaluation in recent years.This paper uses southern Junggar Basin as an appraisal area.Firstly,five typical kinds of evaluation methods are discussed,in which the merits and demerits are systematically expounded.It is founded that qualitative evaluations are still practical,although quantitative evaluations have improved the veracity of evaluation,subjectivism and empirical judgments are still existed in the process of quantitative evaluations to some extent.Based on the differences and similarities of the five evaluation methods,principal component analysis( PCA) has been proposed for the purpose that avoids the subjectivism and empirical judgments.The Sigonghe to Dahuangshan area has been selected as a favorable area by PCA method,the same result is generated by the five evaluation methods,which proves that the PCA method is feasible in selecting the favorable CBM areas,and its greatest advantage is to avoid the subjectivism.The authors advocate that the thought of "first qualitativejudgment,second quantitative analysis,and final qualitative verification"should be used to select favorable CBM areas.
Selected areas evaluation of coalbed methane has always been an important link in the process of coalbed methane( CBM) exploration,in which the evaluation method is the key to favorable area.The methods gradually developed from the qualitative evaluation to quantitative evaluation in recent years.This paper uses southern Junggar Basin as an appraisal area.Firstly,five typical kinds of evaluation methods are discussed,in which the merits and demerits are systematically expounded.It is founded that qualitative evaluations are still practical,although quantitative evaluations have improved the veracity of evaluation,subjectivism and empirical judgments are still existed in the process of quantitative evaluations to some extent.Based on the differences and similarities of the five evaluation methods,principal component analysis( PCA) has been proposed for the purpose that avoids the subjectivism and empirical judgments.The Sigonghe to Dahuangshan area has been selected as a favorable area by PCA method,the same result is generated by the five evaluation methods,which proves that the PCA method is feasible in selecting the favorable CBM areas,and its greatest advantage is to avoid the subjectivism.The authors advocate that the thought of "first qualitativejudgment,second quantitative analysis,and final qualitative verification"should be used to select favorable CBM areas.
引文
[1]王一兵,田文广,李五忠,等.中国煤层气选区评价标准探讨[J].地质通报,2006,25(9-10):1104-1107.Wang Yibing,Tian Wenguang,Li Wuzhong,et al.Criteria for the evaluation of coalbed methane area selection in China[J].Geological Bulletin of China,2006,25(9-10):1104-1107.
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[3]赵黔荣.六盘水煤层气选区评价参数及勘探开发模式[J].贵州地质,2000,17(4):226-235.Zhao Qianrong.Discussion on geological feature of coalbed gas and its mode of exploration and development in Liupanshui area[J].Guizhou Geology,2000,17(4):226-235.
[4]罗金辉,杨永国,秦勇,等.基于组合权重的煤层气有利区块模糊优选[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(2):242-246.Luo Jinhui,Yang Yongguo,Qin Yong,et al.Fuzzy optimization for CBM favorable targets based on combined weights[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2012,37(2):242-246.
[5]侯海海,邵龙义,唐跃,等.基于多层次模糊数学的中国低煤阶煤层气选区评价标准——以吐哈盆地为例[J].中国地质,2014,41(3):1002-1009.Hou Haihai,Shao Longyi,Tang Yue,et al.Criteria for selected areas evaluation of low rank CBM based on multi-layered fuzzy mathematics:A case study of Turpan-Hami Basin[J].Geology in China,2014,41(3):1002-1009.
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[11]于福生,李国志,杨光达,等.准噶尔盆地南缘褶皱-冲断带变形特征及成因机制模拟[J].大地构造与成矿学,2009,33(3):386-395.Yu Fusheng,Li Guozhi,Yang Guangda,et al.Deformation feature and genesis simulation of fold-and-thrust belts in the southern margin Junggar Basin[J].Geotectonica et Metallogenia,2009,33(3):386-395.
[12]王先超.新疆五宫煤矿瓦斯赋存的构造控制[J].山东国土资源,2015,31(6):16-19.Wang Xianchao.Tectonic control on gas occurrence of Wugong coal mine in Xinjiang uygur autonomous region[J].Shangdong Land and Resources,2015,31(6):16-19.
[13]陈书平,漆家福,于福生,等.准噶尔盆地南缘构造变形特征及其主控因素[J].地质学报,2007,81(2):151-157.Chen Shuping,Qi Jiafu,Yu Fusheng,et al.Deformation characteristics in the southern margin of the Junggar Basin and their controlling factors[J].Acta Geological Sinica,2007,81(2):151-157.
[14]祁斌.阜康矿区煤层气开发地质特征与钻井选型[J].中国煤层气,2015,12(3):23-25.Qi Bin.Geological characteristics and selection of drilling wells for CBM development in Fukang mining area[J].China Coalbed Methane,2015,12(3):23-25.
[15]张国庆.准南煤田煤层气资源开发前景[J].中国煤田地质,2001,13(2):35-36,121.Zhang Guoqing.Exploiting prospect of coal bed gas resources in Zhunnan Coal-field[J].Coal Geology of China,2001,13(2):35-36,121.
[16]郭继刚,王绪龙,庞雄奇,等.准噶尔盆地南缘中下侏罗统烃源岩评价及排烃特征[J].中国矿业大学学报,2013,42(4):595-605.Guo Jigang,Wang Xulong,Pang Xiongqi,et al.Evaluation and hydrocarbon expulsion characteristics of the Middle-Lower Jurassic source rock in the southern margin of Junggar basin[J].Journal of China University of Mining&Technology,2013,42(4):595-605.
[17]吕跃进,陈万翠,钟磊.层次分析法标度研究的若干问题[J].琼州学院学报,2013,20(5):1-6.LüYuejin,Chen Wancui,Zhong Lei.A survey on the scale of analytic hierarchy process[J].Journal of Hainan Tropical Ocean University,2013,20(5):1-6.
[18]韩俊,邵龙义,肖建新,等.多层次模糊数学在煤层气开发潜力评价中的应用[J].煤田地质与勘探,2008,36(3):32-36.Han Jun,Shao Longyi,Xiao Jianxin,et al.Application of multi-layered fuzzy mathematics in assessment of exploration potential of coalbed methane resources[J].Coal Geology&Exploration,2008,36(3):32-36.
[19]刘刚,陈新军,柳保军,等.灰色聚类分析在石油及天然气地质研究中的应用[J].新疆石油学院学报,2003,15(1):26-30.Liu Gang,Chen Xinjun,Liu Baojun,et al.Application of grey clustering analysis in the geological stuely of petroleum and natural gas[J].Journal of Xinjiang Petroleum Institute,2003,15(1):26-30.
[20]谭河清,彭存仓,武国华,等.灰色聚类分析在孤东地区油气勘探中的应用[J].石油与天然气地质,2003,24(1):97-101.Tan Heqing,Peng Cuncang,Wu Guohua,et al.Gray clustering analysis and its application to petroleum exploration in Gudong area[J].Oil&Gas Geology,2003,24(1):97-101.
[21]冯利华.灾害等级的灰色聚类分析[J].自然灾害学报,1997,6(1):16-20.Feng Lihua.Gray clustering analysis of disaster grade[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1997,6(1):16-20.
[22]王晓波,丁陈建.灰色聚类分析在煤矿瓦斯分区中的应用[J].煤田地质与勘探,1998,26(5):26-29.Wang Xiaobo,Ding Chenjian.The application of the gray cluster analysis in the mine gas division[J].Coal Geology&Exploration,1998,26(5):26-29.
[23]凌复华.突变理论及其应用[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,1987:1-5.
[24]李绍飞,孙书洪,王向余.突变理论在海河流域地下水环境风险评价中的应用[J].水利学报,2007,38(11):1312-1317.Li Shaofei,Sun Shuhong,Wang Xiangyu.Application of catastrophe theory to risk assessment of groundwater environment for river basin[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2007,38(11):1312-1317.
[25]谷新建,柴红保.应用突变评价理论选择采矿方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2004,14(7):16-18.Gu Jianxin,Chai Hongbao.Selection of mining method by catastrophe evaluation theory[J].China Safety Science Journal,2004,14(7):16-18.
[26]汪东华.多元统计分析与SPSS应用[M].上海:华东理工大学出版社,2010:187-205.
[27]赵喜林,李德宜,龚谊承.应用数理统计与SPSS操作[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2009:225-234.
[28]万金保,曾海燕,朱邦辉.主成分分析法在乐安河水质评价中的应用[J].中国给水排水,2009,25(16):104-108.Wan Jinbao,Zeng Haiyan,Zhu Banghui.Application of principal component analysis in evaluation of water quality of Lean River[J].China Water&Wastewater,2009,25(16):104-108.
[29]高吉喜,段飞舟,香宝.主成分分析在农田土壤环境评价中的应用[J].地理研究,2006,25(5):836-842.Gao Jixi,Duan Feizhou,Xiang Bao.The application of principal component analysis to agriculture soil contamination assessment[J].Geographical Research,2006,25(5):836-842.
[30]强平,曾伟,陈景山.利用主成分分析对储层进行分类和评价[J].西南石油学院学报,1997,19(1):26-31.Qiang Ping,Zeng Wei,Chen Jingshan.Reservoir classification and evoluation by the method of Chief Component Analysis[J].Journal of Southwestern Petroleum Institute,1997,19(1):26-31.
[31]张伟,周梓欣.塔拉德萨依勘查区CS-1井煤层气储层特征分析[J].中国煤层气,2016,13(3):10-12,40.Zhang Wei,Zhou Zixin.Analysis of the characteristics of coalbed methane reservoir of CS-1 well in Taladesayi exploration area[J].China Coalbed Methane,2016,13(3):10-12,40.
[2]李五忠,田文广,陈刚,等.不同煤阶煤层气选区评价参数的研究与应用[J].天然气工业,2010,30(6):45-47,63,126.Li Wuzhong,Tian Wenguang,Chen Gang,et al.Research and application appraisal variables for the prioritizing of coalbed methane areas featured by different coal ranks[J].Natural Gas Industry,2010,30(6):45-47,63,126.
[3]赵黔荣.六盘水煤层气选区评价参数及勘探开发模式[J].贵州地质,2000,17(4):226-235.Zhao Qianrong.Discussion on geological feature of coalbed gas and its mode of exploration and development in Liupanshui area[J].Guizhou Geology,2000,17(4):226-235.
[4]罗金辉,杨永国,秦勇,等.基于组合权重的煤层气有利区块模糊优选[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(2):242-246.Luo Jinhui,Yang Yongguo,Qin Yong,et al.Fuzzy optimization for CBM favorable targets based on combined weights[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2012,37(2):242-246.
[5]侯海海,邵龙义,唐跃,等.基于多层次模糊数学的中国低煤阶煤层气选区评价标准——以吐哈盆地为例[J].中国地质,2014,41(3):1002-1009.Hou Haihai,Shao Longyi,Tang Yue,et al.Criteria for selected areas evaluation of low rank CBM based on multi-layered fuzzy mathematics:A case study of Turpan-Hami Basin[J].Geology in China,2014,41(3):1002-1009.
[6]叶建平,秦勇,林大杨.中国煤层气资源[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,1998:186-195.
[7]霍凯中,赵永军,孙立冬.灰色聚类分析在煤层气选区评价中的应用[J].断块油气田,2007,14(2):14-17.Huo Kaizhong,Zhao Yongjun,Sun Lidong.Application of grey cluster analysis in selective area evaluation of coalbed methane[J].FaultBlock Oil&Gas Field,2007,14(2):14-17.
[8]池卫国.煤层气评价选区新思路——地层能量评价法及其应用[J].天然气工业,1998,18(4):26-29,4.Chi Weiguo.A thought on the evaluation and regional selection of coalbed gas-evaluation method of formation energy and its application[J].Natural Gas Industry,1998,18(4):26-29,4.
[9]陈茂谦,师俊峰,金娟.突变评价法在煤层气评价和选区中的应用[J].石油钻探技术,2009,37(2):74-77.Chen Maoqian,Shi Junfeng,Jin Juan.Application of catastrophe theory in evaluation and selection of coal-bed gas reservoirs[J].Petroleum Drilling Techniques,2009,37(2):74-77.
[10]白斌.准噶尔南缘构造沉积演化及其控制下的基本油气地质条件[D].西安:西北大学,2008:55-90.Bai Bin.Tectono-sedimentary evolution and its controls on basic petroleum geological condition of south Margin of Junggar[D].Xi’an:Northwest University,2008:55-90.
[11]于福生,李国志,杨光达,等.准噶尔盆地南缘褶皱-冲断带变形特征及成因机制模拟[J].大地构造与成矿学,2009,33(3):386-395.Yu Fusheng,Li Guozhi,Yang Guangda,et al.Deformation feature and genesis simulation of fold-and-thrust belts in the southern margin Junggar Basin[J].Geotectonica et Metallogenia,2009,33(3):386-395.
[12]王先超.新疆五宫煤矿瓦斯赋存的构造控制[J].山东国土资源,2015,31(6):16-19.Wang Xianchao.Tectonic control on gas occurrence of Wugong coal mine in Xinjiang uygur autonomous region[J].Shangdong Land and Resources,2015,31(6):16-19.
[13]陈书平,漆家福,于福生,等.准噶尔盆地南缘构造变形特征及其主控因素[J].地质学报,2007,81(2):151-157.Chen Shuping,Qi Jiafu,Yu Fusheng,et al.Deformation characteristics in the southern margin of the Junggar Basin and their controlling factors[J].Acta Geological Sinica,2007,81(2):151-157.
[14]祁斌.阜康矿区煤层气开发地质特征与钻井选型[J].中国煤层气,2015,12(3):23-25.Qi Bin.Geological characteristics and selection of drilling wells for CBM development in Fukang mining area[J].China Coalbed Methane,2015,12(3):23-25.
[15]张国庆.准南煤田煤层气资源开发前景[J].中国煤田地质,2001,13(2):35-36,121.Zhang Guoqing.Exploiting prospect of coal bed gas resources in Zhunnan Coal-field[J].Coal Geology of China,2001,13(2):35-36,121.
[16]郭继刚,王绪龙,庞雄奇,等.准噶尔盆地南缘中下侏罗统烃源岩评价及排烃特征[J].中国矿业大学学报,2013,42(4):595-605.Guo Jigang,Wang Xulong,Pang Xiongqi,et al.Evaluation and hydrocarbon expulsion characteristics of the Middle-Lower Jurassic source rock in the southern margin of Junggar basin[J].Journal of China University of Mining&Technology,2013,42(4):595-605.
[17]吕跃进,陈万翠,钟磊.层次分析法标度研究的若干问题[J].琼州学院学报,2013,20(5):1-6.LüYuejin,Chen Wancui,Zhong Lei.A survey on the scale of analytic hierarchy process[J].Journal of Hainan Tropical Ocean University,2013,20(5):1-6.
[18]韩俊,邵龙义,肖建新,等.多层次模糊数学在煤层气开发潜力评价中的应用[J].煤田地质与勘探,2008,36(3):32-36.Han Jun,Shao Longyi,Xiao Jianxin,et al.Application of multi-layered fuzzy mathematics in assessment of exploration potential of coalbed methane resources[J].Coal Geology&Exploration,2008,36(3):32-36.
[19]刘刚,陈新军,柳保军,等.灰色聚类分析在石油及天然气地质研究中的应用[J].新疆石油学院学报,2003,15(1):26-30.Liu Gang,Chen Xinjun,Liu Baojun,et al.Application of grey clustering analysis in the geological stuely of petroleum and natural gas[J].Journal of Xinjiang Petroleum Institute,2003,15(1):26-30.
[20]谭河清,彭存仓,武国华,等.灰色聚类分析在孤东地区油气勘探中的应用[J].石油与天然气地质,2003,24(1):97-101.Tan Heqing,Peng Cuncang,Wu Guohua,et al.Gray clustering analysis and its application to petroleum exploration in Gudong area[J].Oil&Gas Geology,2003,24(1):97-101.
[21]冯利华.灾害等级的灰色聚类分析[J].自然灾害学报,1997,6(1):16-20.Feng Lihua.Gray clustering analysis of disaster grade[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1997,6(1):16-20.
[22]王晓波,丁陈建.灰色聚类分析在煤矿瓦斯分区中的应用[J].煤田地质与勘探,1998,26(5):26-29.Wang Xiaobo,Ding Chenjian.The application of the gray cluster analysis in the mine gas division[J].Coal Geology&Exploration,1998,26(5):26-29.
[23]凌复华.突变理论及其应用[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,1987:1-5.
[24]李绍飞,孙书洪,王向余.突变理论在海河流域地下水环境风险评价中的应用[J].水利学报,2007,38(11):1312-1317.Li Shaofei,Sun Shuhong,Wang Xiangyu.Application of catastrophe theory to risk assessment of groundwater environment for river basin[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2007,38(11):1312-1317.
[25]谷新建,柴红保.应用突变评价理论选择采矿方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2004,14(7):16-18.Gu Jianxin,Chai Hongbao.Selection of mining method by catastrophe evaluation theory[J].China Safety Science Journal,2004,14(7):16-18.
[26]汪东华.多元统计分析与SPSS应用[M].上海:华东理工大学出版社,2010:187-205.
[27]赵喜林,李德宜,龚谊承.应用数理统计与SPSS操作[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2009:225-234.
[28]万金保,曾海燕,朱邦辉.主成分分析法在乐安河水质评价中的应用[J].中国给水排水,2009,25(16):104-108.Wan Jinbao,Zeng Haiyan,Zhu Banghui.Application of principal component analysis in evaluation of water quality of Lean River[J].China Water&Wastewater,2009,25(16):104-108.
[29]高吉喜,段飞舟,香宝.主成分分析在农田土壤环境评价中的应用[J].地理研究,2006,25(5):836-842.Gao Jixi,Duan Feizhou,Xiang Bao.The application of principal component analysis to agriculture soil contamination assessment[J].Geographical Research,2006,25(5):836-842.
[30]强平,曾伟,陈景山.利用主成分分析对储层进行分类和评价[J].西南石油学院学报,1997,19(1):26-31.Qiang Ping,Zeng Wei,Chen Jingshan.Reservoir classification and evoluation by the method of Chief Component Analysis[J].Journal of Southwestern Petroleum Institute,1997,19(1):26-31.
[31]张伟,周梓欣.塔拉德萨依勘查区CS-1井煤层气储层特征分析[J].中国煤层气,2016,13(3):10-12,40.Zhang Wei,Zhou Zixin.Analysis of the characteristics of coalbed methane reservoir of CS-1 well in Taladesayi exploration area[J].China Coalbed Methane,2016,13(3):10-12,40.
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