农村人口与聚落用地空间分布的脱钩及预测分析——以大理市洱海东岸地区为例
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摘要
以大理市洱海东岸地区为例,运用地理集中度、脱钩指数及地理探测器等模型,从村域尺度分析1988—2015年农村人口与聚落用地空间分布的脱钩状况及原因,并构建灰色预测模型对2015—2024年的变动态势进行预测。结果表明:(1)随时间的演进,农村人口空间分布变动较小且集中于洱海沿岸,而聚落用地集聚区呈远离洱海态势;(2)农村人口与聚落用地的空间分布由扩张与衰退脱钩状态并举向以扩张脱钩状态为主演变,二者地理集中度的变动由以人口上升为主转为以聚落用地上升为主;(3)农村人口与聚落用地空间分布的脱钩状况受农业生产力因子变动的影响减弱而受经济基础、产业结构及人口结构因子变动的影响增强;(4) 2015—2024年,农村人口与聚落用地将以国道G320-G5611一线为界,继续呈西密东疏的空间分布特点,人口地理集中度将整体提升,并以衰退强绝对负脱钩和扩张相对负脱钩两类村庄为主。
Takeing east coast of Erhai Lake in Dali City as an example,from the perspective of village area,this paper measures the decoupling status and causes of spatial distribution of rural population and settlements from1988 to 2015 by using geographic concentration,decoupling index and geographical detector model,and constructs GM( 1,1) model to predict its change tendency during 2015—2024. The results are as follows:(1) With time going on,the spatial distribution of rural population in this area has changed little and concentrated along the Erhai lake,while the agglomeration area of settlements showed a trend away from Erhai;(2) The spatial distribution of rural population and settlements have experienced the evolution from both expansion and recession decoupling state to dominated expansion decoupling state,the change of geographical concentration have turned from mainly with population growth to mainly with settlements growth;(3) The influence of changes in agricultural productivity factors on the decoupling state of spatial distribution of rural population and settlements is weakened while the influence of changes in economic base,industrial structure and population structure factors is enhanced;(4) During 2015—2024,both rural population and settlements will be bounded by G320—G5611,continue to show the spatial distribution characteristics of "west dense and east sparse",the population geography concentration will be overall upgrade,two types of villages as decay strong absolute negative decoupling and expansion relative negative decoupling will come into dominated.
Takeing east coast of Erhai Lake in Dali City as an example,from the perspective of village area,this paper measures the decoupling status and causes of spatial distribution of rural population and settlements from1988 to 2015 by using geographic concentration,decoupling index and geographical detector model,and constructs GM( 1,1) model to predict its change tendency during 2015—2024. The results are as follows:(1) With time going on,the spatial distribution of rural population in this area has changed little and concentrated along the Erhai lake,while the agglomeration area of settlements showed a trend away from Erhai;(2) The spatial distribution of rural population and settlements have experienced the evolution from both expansion and recession decoupling state to dominated expansion decoupling state,the change of geographical concentration have turned from mainly with population growth to mainly with settlements growth;(3) The influence of changes in agricultural productivity factors on the decoupling state of spatial distribution of rural population and settlements is weakened while the influence of changes in economic base,industrial structure and population structure factors is enhanced;(4) During 2015—2024,both rural population and settlements will be bounded by G320—G5611,continue to show the spatial distribution characteristics of "west dense and east sparse",the population geography concentration will be overall upgrade,two types of villages as decay strong absolute negative decoupling and expansion relative negative decoupling will come into dominated.
引文
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[3]陈涛,陈池波.中国农村人口空心化测量指标改进研究[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2017,17(1):149-155.
[4]龙冬平,李同昇,苗园园,等.中国农村人口非农化时空演变特征及影响因素[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(4):517-530.
[5]袁俊,吴殿廷,吴铮争.中国农村人口老龄化的空间差异及其影响因素分析[J].中国人口科学,2007(3):41-47.
[6]颜姜慧,朱舜.农村人口转移趋势及空间指向研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(5):146-452.
[7]高更和,罗庆,樊新生,等.中国农村人口省际流动研究:基于第六次人口普查数据[J].地理科学,2015,35(12):1511-1517.
[8]杨慧敏,高更和,李二玲.河南省农民工务工地选择及影响因素分析[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(12):1634-1641.
[9]谭雪兰,周国华,朱苏晖,等.长沙市农村居民点景观格局变化及地域分异特征研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(2):204-210.
[10]郜红娟,韩会庆,罗绪强.中国西南山区公路沿线乡村聚落景观格局演变[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(3):139-143.
[11]胡鑫,谭雪兰,朱红梅,等.长沙市农村居民点空间格局特征研究[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(1):138-143.
[12]席鸿,肖莉,刘瑞强,等.古城边缘带乡村聚落演变特征及驱动机制:以陕西韩城庙后村为例[J].地域研究与开发,2018,37(2):158-162.
[13] YANG R,LIU Y S,LONG H L,et al. Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Rural Settlements and Land Use in the Bohai Rim of China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2015,25(5):559-572.
[14]张佰林,张凤荣,周建,等.农村居民点功能演变的微尺度分析:山东省沂水县核桃园村的实证[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1272-1279.
[15]陈诚.农村聚落功能评价研究:以启东市为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(10):1425-1431.
[16]朱泰峰,张凤荣,李灿,等.农村居民点用地集约利用评价:以北京市门头沟区为例[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(1):160-165.
[17]谢保鹏,朱道林,陈英,等.基于区位条件分析的农村居民点整理模式选择[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(1):219-227.
[18]李伟松,李江风,姚尧,等.三生空间重构视角下的镇域农村居民点整治分区:以湖北省荆门市沙洋县官垱镇为例[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(1):139-143.
[19]张贵军,朱永明,臧亮,等.新型城镇化背景下昌黎县农村居民点空间重构评价与分区[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(12):237-246.
[20]王成,费智慧,叶琴丽,等.基于共生理论的村域尺度下农村居民点空间重构策略与实现[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(3):205-214.
[21]张磊,武友德,李君.高原湖泊平坝区农村居民点空间格局演变及预测分析:以大理市海西地区为例[J].中国农业大学学报,2018,23(2):126-138.
[22]张磊,武友德,李君.环洱海地区耕地与农业劳动力空间分布特征及其耦合关系[J].世界地理研究,2018,27(3):109-119.
[23]刘影,肖池伟,李鹏,等. 1978—2013年中国粮食主产区“粮-经”关系分析[J].资源科学,2015,37(10):1891-1901.
[24]钟业喜,刘运伟,赖格英.红三角经济圈人口与经济空间分布关系研究[J].华南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,44(1):118-123.
[25]张成,蔡万焕,于同申.区域经济增长与碳生产率:基于收敛及脱钩指数的分析[J].中国工业经济,2013(5):18-30.
[26]张文彬,李国平.中国区域经济增长及可持续性研究:基于脱钩指数分析[J].经济地理,2015,35(11):8-14.
[27] WANG J F,LI X H,CHRISTAKOS G,et al. Geographical Detectors-based Health Risk Assessment and Its Application in the Neural Tube Defects Study of the Heshun Region,China[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2010,24(1):107-127.
[28]朱鹤,刘家明,陶慧,等.北京城市休闲商务区的时空分布特征与成因[J].地理学报,2015,70(8):1215-1228.
[29]丛海彬,邹德玲,吴福象.中国社会经济综合发展水平时空格局演化及驱动因素[J].经济地理,2015,35(7):21-29.
[30]杨忍,刘彦随,龙花楼.中国环渤海地区人口-土地-产业非农化转型协同演化特征[J].地理研究,2015,34(3):475-486.
[31]王曼曼,吴秀芹,吴斌,等.盐池北部风沙区乡村聚落空间格局演变分析[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(8):260-271.
[32]马媛,黄翀,郑巍.玛曲县土地利用变化分析与预测[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(4):735-741.
[33]杨华龙,刘金霞,郑斌.灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的改进及应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(23):39-46.
[2]王婧,方创琳,李裕瑞.中国城乡人口与建设用地的时空变化及其耦合特征研究[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(8):1271-1281.
[3]陈涛,陈池波.中国农村人口空心化测量指标改进研究[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2017,17(1):149-155.
[4]龙冬平,李同昇,苗园园,等.中国农村人口非农化时空演变特征及影响因素[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(4):517-530.
[5]袁俊,吴殿廷,吴铮争.中国农村人口老龄化的空间差异及其影响因素分析[J].中国人口科学,2007(3):41-47.
[6]颜姜慧,朱舜.农村人口转移趋势及空间指向研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(5):146-452.
[7]高更和,罗庆,樊新生,等.中国农村人口省际流动研究:基于第六次人口普查数据[J].地理科学,2015,35(12):1511-1517.
[8]杨慧敏,高更和,李二玲.河南省农民工务工地选择及影响因素分析[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(12):1634-1641.
[9]谭雪兰,周国华,朱苏晖,等.长沙市农村居民点景观格局变化及地域分异特征研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(2):204-210.
[10]郜红娟,韩会庆,罗绪强.中国西南山区公路沿线乡村聚落景观格局演变[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(3):139-143.
[11]胡鑫,谭雪兰,朱红梅,等.长沙市农村居民点空间格局特征研究[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(1):138-143.
[12]席鸿,肖莉,刘瑞强,等.古城边缘带乡村聚落演变特征及驱动机制:以陕西韩城庙后村为例[J].地域研究与开发,2018,37(2):158-162.
[13] YANG R,LIU Y S,LONG H L,et al. Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Rural Settlements and Land Use in the Bohai Rim of China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2015,25(5):559-572.
[14]张佰林,张凤荣,周建,等.农村居民点功能演变的微尺度分析:山东省沂水县核桃园村的实证[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1272-1279.
[15]陈诚.农村聚落功能评价研究:以启东市为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(10):1425-1431.
[16]朱泰峰,张凤荣,李灿,等.农村居民点用地集约利用评价:以北京市门头沟区为例[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(1):160-165.
[17]谢保鹏,朱道林,陈英,等.基于区位条件分析的农村居民点整理模式选择[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(1):219-227.
[18]李伟松,李江风,姚尧,等.三生空间重构视角下的镇域农村居民点整治分区:以湖北省荆门市沙洋县官垱镇为例[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(1):139-143.
[19]张贵军,朱永明,臧亮,等.新型城镇化背景下昌黎县农村居民点空间重构评价与分区[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(12):237-246.
[20]王成,费智慧,叶琴丽,等.基于共生理论的村域尺度下农村居民点空间重构策略与实现[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(3):205-214.
[21]张磊,武友德,李君.高原湖泊平坝区农村居民点空间格局演变及预测分析:以大理市海西地区为例[J].中国农业大学学报,2018,23(2):126-138.
[22]张磊,武友德,李君.环洱海地区耕地与农业劳动力空间分布特征及其耦合关系[J].世界地理研究,2018,27(3):109-119.
[23]刘影,肖池伟,李鹏,等. 1978—2013年中国粮食主产区“粮-经”关系分析[J].资源科学,2015,37(10):1891-1901.
[24]钟业喜,刘运伟,赖格英.红三角经济圈人口与经济空间分布关系研究[J].华南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,44(1):118-123.
[25]张成,蔡万焕,于同申.区域经济增长与碳生产率:基于收敛及脱钩指数的分析[J].中国工业经济,2013(5):18-30.
[26]张文彬,李国平.中国区域经济增长及可持续性研究:基于脱钩指数分析[J].经济地理,2015,35(11):8-14.
[27] WANG J F,LI X H,CHRISTAKOS G,et al. Geographical Detectors-based Health Risk Assessment and Its Application in the Neural Tube Defects Study of the Heshun Region,China[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2010,24(1):107-127.
[28]朱鹤,刘家明,陶慧,等.北京城市休闲商务区的时空分布特征与成因[J].地理学报,2015,70(8):1215-1228.
[29]丛海彬,邹德玲,吴福象.中国社会经济综合发展水平时空格局演化及驱动因素[J].经济地理,2015,35(7):21-29.
[30]杨忍,刘彦随,龙花楼.中国环渤海地区人口-土地-产业非农化转型协同演化特征[J].地理研究,2015,34(3):475-486.
[31]王曼曼,吴秀芹,吴斌,等.盐池北部风沙区乡村聚落空间格局演变分析[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(8):260-271.
[32]马媛,黄翀,郑巍.玛曲县土地利用变化分析与预测[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(4):735-741.
[33]杨华龙,刘金霞,郑斌.灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的改进及应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(23):39-46.
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