家庭生命周期对农户规模经营意愿的影响分析——基于长江中游三省稻农的调查与分析
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摘要
借鉴家庭生命周期理论,利用长江中游地区3省711个样本农户家庭的数据,揭示家庭生命周期对农户规模经营意愿的影响机制。研究发现:1)相比于空巢期家庭,处于其他生命周期阶段的农户家庭愿意进行规模经营的可能性更高;2)户主个人特征年龄、文化程度、健康状况,农户家庭特征户主是否外出就业、人均耕地面积,外在环境特征山地丘陵地形、农地块均面积、种粮政策支持感知、农村道路交通设施满意度是影响农户规模经营意愿的关键因素;3)不同家庭生命周期阶段农户规模经营意愿影响因素存在显著差异。有鉴于此,本研究认为对于空巢期阶段家庭,政府应该给予养老政策支持,鼓励其转出土地。处于抚养期和稳定期阶段农户家庭具备较强的人力资源禀赋与意愿成为适度规模经营主体,政府应加大对这些农户农业生产经营能力培训与政策支持力度。进一步改善农业生产外在环境条件,提高农户生产积极性与规模经营意愿。
Based on family life cycle theory,this study uses the data of 711 sample households in 3 provinces of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River to reveal the influence mechanism of the family life cycle on the scale operation intention of farmers.The results show that:1)Compared to the empty nest family with elders at home,the other life cycle stage of farm households has a greater willingness to scale operation.2)Householder personal characteristics age,cultural level,health status,the characteristics of farm households outside employment,arable land per capita,the external environment characteristics of mountain hilly terrain,the average area of agricultural land,the grain policy support perception,satisfaction of rural road traffic facilities are the key factors that influence the will of peasant household scale operation.3)There are significant differences in the influence factors of farmers' scale operation intention on different family life cycle stages.In conclusion,it is believed that the government should provide pension policy support to families in the empty nest stage and encourage them to transfer out of the land.In the stage of raising period and stable period of farm households have strong human resources endowment and the willingness to become the subject of moderate scale management,the government should enhance farmers' agricultural production and operation capacity trainings and policy support,improve agricultural production conditions in the external environment,and increase farmers' enthusiasm for production and their willingness to operate on a large scale.
Based on family life cycle theory,this study uses the data of 711 sample households in 3 provinces of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River to reveal the influence mechanism of the family life cycle on the scale operation intention of farmers.The results show that:1)Compared to the empty nest family with elders at home,the other life cycle stage of farm households has a greater willingness to scale operation.2)Householder personal characteristics age,cultural level,health status,the characteristics of farm households outside employment,arable land per capita,the external environment characteristics of mountain hilly terrain,the average area of agricultural land,the grain policy support perception,satisfaction of rural road traffic facilities are the key factors that influence the will of peasant household scale operation.3)There are significant differences in the influence factors of farmers' scale operation intention on different family life cycle stages.In conclusion,it is believed that the government should provide pension policy support to families in the empty nest stage and encourage them to transfer out of the land.In the stage of raising period and stable period of farm households have strong human resources endowment and the willingness to become the subject of moderate scale management,the government should enhance farmers' agricultural production and operation capacity trainings and policy support,improve agricultural production conditions in the external environment,and increase farmers' enthusiasm for production and their willingness to operate on a large scale.
引文
[1]杨俊,杨钢桥,胡贤辉.农业劳动力年龄对农户耕地利用效率的影响:来自不同经济发展水平地区的实证[J].资源科学,2011,33(9):1691-1698Yang J,Yang G J,Hu X H.Impact of agricultural labor aging on farmland use efficiency of rural households:An empirical study from regions of differing economic development levels[J].Resources Science,2011,33(9):1691-1698(in Chinese)
[2]周曙东,卞琦娟,翁贞林,朱红根,张宗毅.种粮大户农地转入意愿影响因素的实证研究:以江西省为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(10):1164-1170Zhou S D,Bian Q J,Weng Z L,Zhu H G,Zhang Z Y.Empirical analysis on factors influencing the large rice houshhold’s willingness to rent farmland:A case of Jiangxi Province[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2010,19(10):1164-1170(in Chinese)
[3]刘凤芹.农业土地规模经营的条件与效果研究:以东北农村为例[J].管理世界,2006(9):45-54Liu F Q.A Study of the conditions of the scale operation of farmland,and of the effect thereof:Taking the northeastern countryside as a case[J].Management World,2006(9):45-54(in Chinese)
[4]戚迪明,杨肖丽,江金启,张广胜.生产环节外包对农户土地规模经营的影响分析:基于辽宁省水稻种植户的调查数据[J].湖南农业大学学报:社会科学版,2015(3):7-12Qi D M,Yang X L,Jiang J Q,Zhang G S.Impact of production outsourcing on farmers’land scale operation:Based on a survey of rice planting farmers in Liaoning Province[J].Journal of Hunan Agricultural University:Social Science,2015(3):7-12(in Chinese)
[5]陈秧分,刘彦随,翟荣新.基于农户调查的东部沿海地区农地规模经营意愿及其影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(7):1102-1108Chen Y F,Liu Y S,Zhai R X.Households’willingness and its determinants on the scale operation of farmland in the coastal areas of east China based on household survey[J].Resources Science,2009,31(7):1102-1108(in Chinese)
[6]钱文荣,张忠明.农民土地意愿经营规模影响因素实证研究:基于长江中下游区域的调查分析[J].农业经济问题,2007,28(5):28-34Qian W R,Zhang Z M.The farmers’desired scale of land management:An analysis based on a survey in the middlelower reaches of Yangtze River:An empirical study[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2007,28(5):28-34(in Chinese)
[7]凌莎.农户规模经营意愿及其影响因素:基于全国26个省区的抽样问卷调查的思考[J].农村经济,2014(4):96-100Ling S.Farmers’willingness to operate on a large scale and its influencing factors:Based on the consideration of the sampling questionnaire survey in 26provinces and autonomous regions of China[J].Rural Economy,2014(4):96-100(in Chinese)
[8]诸培新,杨子,饶芳萍.家庭生命周期对土地规模经营的影响研究[J].中国人口科学,2017(6):43-53Zhu P X,Yang Z,Rao F P.The effect of family life cycle on land-scale management[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,2017(6):43-53(in Chinese)
[9]林善浪,张作雄,林玉妹.家庭生命周期对农户土地规模经营的影响分析:基于福建农村的调查数据[J].财贸研究,2011,22(4):14-21Lin S L,Zhang Z X,Lin Y M.Impact analysis of family life cycle on land scale operation of rural households:Based on data of Fujian rural area[J].Finance and Trade Research,2011,22(4):14-21(in Chinese)
[10]Glick P C.The family cycle[J].American Sociological Review,1947,12(2):164-174
[11]Perz S G.Household demographic factors as life cycle determinants of land use in the Amazon[J].Population Research&Policy Review,2001,20(3):159-186
[12]何可,张俊飚,田云.家庭生命周期、人口学特征与劳动节约型技术需求:基于582户农民的调查[J].软科学,2013,27(8):118-122He K,Zhang J B,Tian Y.Family life cycle,demographic characteristics and labor-saving technique needs:Based on the data of 582farmers[J].Soft Science,2013,27(8):118-122(in Chinese)
[13]晁钢令,万广圣.农民工家庭生命周期变异及对其家庭消费结构的影响[J].管理世界,2016(11):96-109Chao G L,Wan G S.The life cycle variation of migrant workers and its influence on their household consumption structure[J].Management World,2016(11):96-109(in Chinese)
[14]汪为,吴海涛.家庭生命周期视角下农村劳动力非农转移的影响因素分析:基于湖北省的调查数据[J].中国农村观察,2017(6):57-70Wang W,Wu H T.The determinants of rural labor transfer to non-agricultural sectors from the perspective of family life cycle:An analysis using field survey data in Hubei Province[J].China Rural Survey,2017(6):57-70(in Chinese)
[15]恰亚诺夫A,萧正洪.农民经济组织[M].北京:中央编译出版社,1996Chayanov A,Xiao Z H.Peasant Economic Organization[M].Beijing:Central Compilation Press,1996((in Chinese)
[16]李树茁,梁义成,Marcus W F,Gretchen C D退耕还林政策对农户生计的影响研究:基于家庭结构视角的可持续生计分析[J].公共管理学报,2010,7(2):1-10Li S Z,Liang Y C,Marcus W F,Gretchen C D.The impact of grain for green program on rural livelihoods in China:Sustainable livelihoods analysis in a perspective of household composition[J].Journal of Public Management,2010,7(2):1-10(in Chinese)
[17]Clay D C,Nan E J.Size of farm or size of family:Which comes first?[J].Population Studies,1992,46(3):491-505
[18]Ellis F.农民经济学:农民家庭农业和农业发展[M].胡景北译.上海:上海人民出版社,2006Ellis F.Farmer’s Economics:Farmer’s Family Agriculture and Agricultural Development[M].Hu J B translated.Shanghai:Shanghai People’s Press,2006(in Chinese)
[19]刘升.家庭结构视角下的“半工半耕”及其功能[J].北京社会科学,2015(3):75-81Liu S.“While working side farming”livelihood and its function from the family structure perspective[J].Social Sciences of Beijing,2015(3):75-81(in Chinese)
(1)数据来源:http:∥www.zgxcfx.com/sannonglunjian/201805/109933.html
(2)资料来源:《中国农村统计年鉴—2017》
(1)汪为等将年龄65岁以上定义为老人,考虑到农业生产存在一定的劳动强度,将年龄为60岁以上定义为老人,能更为准确的考察老人对家庭农业生产的影响。
(1)由于本研究使用数据为横截面数据,无法获得农户不同生命周期阶段数据,因此按照已有研究做法,从静态层面考察农户家庭所处生命周期阶段。
(2)考虑到户主年龄、家庭人口负担系数与家庭生命周期阶段可能存在共线性问题,本研究在实证分析中进行了多重共线性检验。结果表明VIF值大多在1.5以下,最大值为6.77,多重共线性较弱。
(3)在本研究中,为家庭生命周期的各类型的样本均具有代表性,由于起步期阶段家庭在家较少,样本获取较难,在此本研究对样本数量较少的起步期家庭阶段予以剔除。
[2]周曙东,卞琦娟,翁贞林,朱红根,张宗毅.种粮大户农地转入意愿影响因素的实证研究:以江西省为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(10):1164-1170Zhou S D,Bian Q J,Weng Z L,Zhu H G,Zhang Z Y.Empirical analysis on factors influencing the large rice houshhold’s willingness to rent farmland:A case of Jiangxi Province[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2010,19(10):1164-1170(in Chinese)
[3]刘凤芹.农业土地规模经营的条件与效果研究:以东北农村为例[J].管理世界,2006(9):45-54Liu F Q.A Study of the conditions of the scale operation of farmland,and of the effect thereof:Taking the northeastern countryside as a case[J].Management World,2006(9):45-54(in Chinese)
[4]戚迪明,杨肖丽,江金启,张广胜.生产环节外包对农户土地规模经营的影响分析:基于辽宁省水稻种植户的调查数据[J].湖南农业大学学报:社会科学版,2015(3):7-12Qi D M,Yang X L,Jiang J Q,Zhang G S.Impact of production outsourcing on farmers’land scale operation:Based on a survey of rice planting farmers in Liaoning Province[J].Journal of Hunan Agricultural University:Social Science,2015(3):7-12(in Chinese)
[5]陈秧分,刘彦随,翟荣新.基于农户调查的东部沿海地区农地规模经营意愿及其影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(7):1102-1108Chen Y F,Liu Y S,Zhai R X.Households’willingness and its determinants on the scale operation of farmland in the coastal areas of east China based on household survey[J].Resources Science,2009,31(7):1102-1108(in Chinese)
[6]钱文荣,张忠明.农民土地意愿经营规模影响因素实证研究:基于长江中下游区域的调查分析[J].农业经济问题,2007,28(5):28-34Qian W R,Zhang Z M.The farmers’desired scale of land management:An analysis based on a survey in the middlelower reaches of Yangtze River:An empirical study[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2007,28(5):28-34(in Chinese)
[7]凌莎.农户规模经营意愿及其影响因素:基于全国26个省区的抽样问卷调查的思考[J].农村经济,2014(4):96-100Ling S.Farmers’willingness to operate on a large scale and its influencing factors:Based on the consideration of the sampling questionnaire survey in 26provinces and autonomous regions of China[J].Rural Economy,2014(4):96-100(in Chinese)
[8]诸培新,杨子,饶芳萍.家庭生命周期对土地规模经营的影响研究[J].中国人口科学,2017(6):43-53Zhu P X,Yang Z,Rao F P.The effect of family life cycle on land-scale management[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,2017(6):43-53(in Chinese)
[9]林善浪,张作雄,林玉妹.家庭生命周期对农户土地规模经营的影响分析:基于福建农村的调查数据[J].财贸研究,2011,22(4):14-21Lin S L,Zhang Z X,Lin Y M.Impact analysis of family life cycle on land scale operation of rural households:Based on data of Fujian rural area[J].Finance and Trade Research,2011,22(4):14-21(in Chinese)
[10]Glick P C.The family cycle[J].American Sociological Review,1947,12(2):164-174
[11]Perz S G.Household demographic factors as life cycle determinants of land use in the Amazon[J].Population Research&Policy Review,2001,20(3):159-186
[12]何可,张俊飚,田云.家庭生命周期、人口学特征与劳动节约型技术需求:基于582户农民的调查[J].软科学,2013,27(8):118-122He K,Zhang J B,Tian Y.Family life cycle,demographic characteristics and labor-saving technique needs:Based on the data of 582farmers[J].Soft Science,2013,27(8):118-122(in Chinese)
[13]晁钢令,万广圣.农民工家庭生命周期变异及对其家庭消费结构的影响[J].管理世界,2016(11):96-109Chao G L,Wan G S.The life cycle variation of migrant workers and its influence on their household consumption structure[J].Management World,2016(11):96-109(in Chinese)
[14]汪为,吴海涛.家庭生命周期视角下农村劳动力非农转移的影响因素分析:基于湖北省的调查数据[J].中国农村观察,2017(6):57-70Wang W,Wu H T.The determinants of rural labor transfer to non-agricultural sectors from the perspective of family life cycle:An analysis using field survey data in Hubei Province[J].China Rural Survey,2017(6):57-70(in Chinese)
[15]恰亚诺夫A,萧正洪.农民经济组织[M].北京:中央编译出版社,1996Chayanov A,Xiao Z H.Peasant Economic Organization[M].Beijing:Central Compilation Press,1996((in Chinese)
[16]李树茁,梁义成,Marcus W F,Gretchen C D退耕还林政策对农户生计的影响研究:基于家庭结构视角的可持续生计分析[J].公共管理学报,2010,7(2):1-10Li S Z,Liang Y C,Marcus W F,Gretchen C D.The impact of grain for green program on rural livelihoods in China:Sustainable livelihoods analysis in a perspective of household composition[J].Journal of Public Management,2010,7(2):1-10(in Chinese)
[17]Clay D C,Nan E J.Size of farm or size of family:Which comes first?[J].Population Studies,1992,46(3):491-505
[18]Ellis F.农民经济学:农民家庭农业和农业发展[M].胡景北译.上海:上海人民出版社,2006Ellis F.Farmer’s Economics:Farmer’s Family Agriculture and Agricultural Development[M].Hu J B translated.Shanghai:Shanghai People’s Press,2006(in Chinese)
[19]刘升.家庭结构视角下的“半工半耕”及其功能[J].北京社会科学,2015(3):75-81Liu S.“While working side farming”livelihood and its function from the family structure perspective[J].Social Sciences of Beijing,2015(3):75-81(in Chinese)
(1)数据来源:http:∥www.zgxcfx.com/sannonglunjian/201805/109933.html
(2)资料来源:《中国农村统计年鉴—2017》
(1)汪为等将年龄65岁以上定义为老人,考虑到农业生产存在一定的劳动强度,将年龄为60岁以上定义为老人,能更为准确的考察老人对家庭农业生产的影响。
(1)由于本研究使用数据为横截面数据,无法获得农户不同生命周期阶段数据,因此按照已有研究做法,从静态层面考察农户家庭所处生命周期阶段。
(2)考虑到户主年龄、家庭人口负担系数与家庭生命周期阶段可能存在共线性问题,本研究在实证分析中进行了多重共线性检验。结果表明VIF值大多在1.5以下,最大值为6.77,多重共线性较弱。
(3)在本研究中,为家庭生命周期的各类型的样本均具有代表性,由于起步期阶段家庭在家较少,样本获取较难,在此本研究对样本数量较少的起步期家庭阶段予以剔除。