新疆生产建设兵团地区气候资源变化及其对农业生产效率的影响
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摘要
气候资源是农业生产的基本要素之一,当前全球气候变暖对农业造成一定的影响。对1990～2016年新疆生产建设兵团所在地区农业气候资源、农业生产要素、农业生产效率以及气候对农业生产效率的影响进行了研究。首先梳理了当地气温、降水和日照的变化特征和趋势;然后利用主成分分析当地农业生产的影响因素,基于投入产出理论利用数据包络模型分析当地农业生产效率,进一步构建农业生产效率和气象因素的多元线性回归模型。研究结果表明:多年来当地气温升高,降水增加,日照时长减少,南疆气温升高趋势比北疆明显,降水增量低于北疆;年平均气温变化以中长周期为主,降水从频繁的短周期转变为中长周期,波动幅度加剧;研究期内,气温和降水变化没有明显的突变点;自然资源、科技、现代农业生产条件和资金投入对当地农业生产影响较大;当地农业生产效率稳步提高,在当前气象变化条件下,气温和降水都对农业生产效率产生正效应,气温对农业生产效率的促进作用远高于降水。保障当地农业生产的长期稳定,要积极应对气候变化,充分利用气象资源变化带来的有利方面,预防极端天气带来的危害,提高农业生产的适应性和自我缓解能力。
Climate resources are one of the basic elements of agricultural production,and the current global warming has a certain impact on agriculture. The effects of agroclimatic resources,agricultural production factors,agricultural production efficiency and the effect of climate on agricultural production efficiency of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC) during 1990 ～ 2016 were studied. Firstly,the change characteristics and trends of temperature,precipitation and sunshine were analyzed. Then,the factors of agricultural production were analyzed by principle components analysis (PCA),and the efficiency of agricultural production was analyzed by SE-DEA based on input-output theory. Furthermore,the multiple linear regression model for agricultural production efficiency and meteorological factors was conducted. The results show that,over the years,the temperature and the precipitation increase,the sunshine duration decrease. The temperature in the southern is higher than that in the northern,and the precipitation increment is lower than that in the northern. There is no obvious abrupt change of temperature and precipitation; Natural resources,science and technology,modern agricultural production conditions and capital input have a great impact on the agricultural production. The efficiency of agricultural production of the XPCC has steadily improved. Under the current meteorological conditions,temperature and precipitation have a positive effect on agricultural production efficiency,and the temperature has a higher positive effect than the effect of the precipitation. To ensure the long-term stability of agricultural production in the XPCC,climate change should be responded to actively,aspects of the meteorological changes should be made full use of to prevent the harm caused by extreme weather,and to improve the adaptability and self-mitigation ability of agriculture.
Climate resources are one of the basic elements of agricultural production,and the current global warming has a certain impact on agriculture. The effects of agroclimatic resources,agricultural production factors,agricultural production efficiency and the effect of climate on agricultural production efficiency of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC) during 1990 ～ 2016 were studied. Firstly,the change characteristics and trends of temperature,precipitation and sunshine were analyzed. Then,the factors of agricultural production were analyzed by principle components analysis (PCA),and the efficiency of agricultural production was analyzed by SE-DEA based on input-output theory. Furthermore,the multiple linear regression model for agricultural production efficiency and meteorological factors was conducted. The results show that,over the years,the temperature and the precipitation increase,the sunshine duration decrease. The temperature in the southern is higher than that in the northern,and the precipitation increment is lower than that in the northern. There is no obvious abrupt change of temperature and precipitation; Natural resources,science and technology,modern agricultural production conditions and capital input have a great impact on the agricultural production. The efficiency of agricultural production of the XPCC has steadily improved. Under the current meteorological conditions,temperature and precipitation have a positive effect on agricultural production efficiency,and the temperature has a higher positive effect than the effect of the precipitation. To ensure the long-term stability of agricultural production in the XPCC,climate change should be responded to actively,aspects of the meteorological changes should be made full use of to prevent the harm caused by extreme weather,and to improve the adaptability and self-mitigation ability of agriculture.
引文
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11王元超,王旭,雷晓辉,等.丹江口水库入库径流特征及其演变规律[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,13(1):15-19Wang Yuanchao,Wang Xu,Lei Xiaohui,et al.Inflow runoff in the Danjiangkou Reservoir and its evolution[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2015,13(1):15-19
12潘国营,秦永泰,马亚芬,等.基于R/S和Morlet小波分析的丹河径流变化特征研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015(3):41-45Pan Guoying,Qin Yongtai,Ma Yafen,et al.Research on variation characteristics of runoff in Danhe river basin based on R/S and Morlet wavelet analysis[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2015(3):41-45
13 Andersen P,Petersen N C.A procedure for ranking efficient units in data envelopment analysis[J].Management Science,1993,39(10):1261-1264
2胡汝骥,樊自立,王亚俊,等.近50 a新疆气候变化对环境影响评估[J].干旱区地理(汉文版),2001,24(2):97-103Hu Ruji,Fan Zili,Wang Yajun,et al.Assessment about the impact of climate change on environment in Xinjiang since recent 50years[J].Arid Land Geography(Chinese version),2001,24(2):97-103
3 Alley R B,Berntsen T,Bindoff N L,et al.IPCC,2007:summary for policymakers[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007
4肖风劲,张海东,王春乙,等.气候变化对我国农业的可能影响及适应性对策[J].自然灾害学报,2006(增刊1):127-131Xiao Fengjin,Zhang Haidong,Wang Chunyi,et al.Impact of climatic change on agriculture and its adaptation countermeasures in China[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006(S1):127-131
5吴普特,赵西宁.气候变化对中国农业用水和粮食生产的影响[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(2):1-6Wu Pute,Zhao Xining.Impact of climate change on agricultural water use and grain production in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2010,26(2):1-6
6侯麟科,仇焕广,汪阳洁,等.气候变化对我国农业生产的影响---基于多投入多产出生产函数的分析[J].农业技术经济,2015(3):4-14Hou Linke,Qiu Huanguang,Wang Yangjie,et al.Impact of climate change on agricultural production in China:an analysis based on multi-input and multi-output production function[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2015(3):4-14
7余弘泳,赵俊芳,余会康.气候变化对年代际东北玉米冷害影响分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(5):113-122Yu Hongyong,Zhao Junfang,Yu Huikang.Impact of climate change on decadal chilling injury of corn in northeastern China[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2017,38(5):113-122
8赵一飞,张勃,张亚宁,等.近50 a来黑河流域气候变暖对农业生产的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(12):130-136Zhao Yifei,Zhang Bo,Zhang Yaning,et al.Impacts of climate change on agriculture production in the Heihe river basin in recent50 years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012,26(12):130-136
9王丹,王开磊.气候变化对我国农业生产的影响及对策研究[J].中州学刊,2009(3):69-71Wang Dan,Wang Kailei.The impact of climate change on agricultural production in China and its countermeasures[J].Academic Journal of Zhongzhou,2009(3):69-71
10周曙东,周文魁,朱红根,等.气候变化对农业的影响及应对措施[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2010,10(1):34-39Zhou Shudong,Zhou Wenkui,Zhu Honggen,et al.Impact of climate change on agriculture and its countermeasures[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2010,10(1):34-39
11王元超,王旭,雷晓辉,等.丹江口水库入库径流特征及其演变规律[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,13(1):15-19Wang Yuanchao,Wang Xu,Lei Xiaohui,et al.Inflow runoff in the Danjiangkou Reservoir and its evolution[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2015,13(1):15-19
12潘国营,秦永泰,马亚芬,等.基于R/S和Morlet小波分析的丹河径流变化特征研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015(3):41-45Pan Guoying,Qin Yongtai,Ma Yafen,et al.Research on variation characteristics of runoff in Danhe river basin based on R/S and Morlet wavelet analysis[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2015(3):41-45
13 Andersen P,Petersen N C.A procedure for ranking efficient units in data envelopment analysis[J].Management Science,1993,39(10):1261-1264