外汇投机偏好对人民币国际化的冲击——基于日元衰退的实证分析
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摘要
2015年人民币正式加入SDR,虽然标志着人民币国际化进程取得重大突破,但是并不意味着人民币已能充当国际货币职能。首先通过提出凯恩斯货币境外需求动机理论,以此分析日元国际化失败的内在原因;然后利用扣除本地需求法重新测算人民币最新境外存量走势,推断人民币国际化目前所处阶段;最后采用脉冲响应分析,研究推动人民币国际化的潜在因素。结论是:其一,日元国际化的失败在于其未能真正充当国际货币职能,而仅是成为国际外汇市场的套利工具;其二,人民币国际化水平已经降至金融危机后水平,表明"新常态"下人民币国际化战略正面临严峻阻碍;其三,人民币国际化此前主要的推动因素源于人民币币值的持续走强,而如今币值的下降同样带来人民币国际化水平的骤跌。从当前形势看,人民币国际化进程与曾经日元国际化存在相似之处,因此需积极调整推进战略,提高风险防范意识。
Entering SDR officially in 2015 markes a significant milestone of the RMB internationalization,but it does not mean that the renminbi has been able to act as an international currency. This paper firstly analyzes the inherent causes of the failure of yen internationalization by proposing the theory of monetary foreign demand motivations; then uses the method of the local demand deduction to calculate the trend of RMB outside stock and to infer the current stage of RMB internationalization; and finally uses impulse response analysis to study the potential factors to promote RMB internationalization.The conclusions are: First,the reason of the failure of yen internationalization is that it does not really act as an international monetary function,but only becomes the international foreign exchange market arbitrage tool; Second,the international level of RMB has dropped to the level after the financial crisis,indicating that the RMB internationalization strategy is facing severe obstacles under the New Normal; Third,the main driving factors of RMB internationalization stemed from the continued strength of the RMB before,and now the RMB depreciation results in its international level's plunging. From the current situation,the internationalization process of RMB and yen has a similarity,which reminds us to adjust promoting stragegy and take cautious attitude.
Entering SDR officially in 2015 markes a significant milestone of the RMB internationalization,but it does not mean that the renminbi has been able to act as an international currency. This paper firstly analyzes the inherent causes of the failure of yen internationalization by proposing the theory of monetary foreign demand motivations; then uses the method of the local demand deduction to calculate the trend of RMB outside stock and to infer the current stage of RMB internationalization; and finally uses impulse response analysis to study the potential factors to promote RMB internationalization.The conclusions are: First,the reason of the failure of yen internationalization is that it does not really act as an international monetary function,but only becomes the international foreign exchange market arbitrage tool; Second,the international level of RMB has dropped to the level after the financial crisis,indicating that the RMB internationalization strategy is facing severe obstacles under the New Normal; Third,the main driving factors of RMB internationalization stemed from the continued strength of the RMB before,and now the RMB depreciation results in its international level's plunging. From the current situation,the internationalization process of RMB and yen has a similarity,which reminds us to adjust promoting stragegy and take cautious attitude.
引文
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[8]中国人民银行人民币现金跨境流动调查课题组.2004年人民币现金跨境流动调查[J].中国金融,2005,(06):38-39.
[9]李德运,龚新蜀.中国新疆与中亚五国边境贸易中人民币区域化初探[J].经济视角:下,2010,(04):7-9.
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[11]沙文兵.汇率变动、贸易地位与人民币境外存量——基于1994-2012年月度数据的实证分析[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2014,(01):3-9.
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[13]李婧,管涛,何帆.人民币跨境流通的现状及对中国经济的影响[J].管理世界,2004,(09):45-52.
[14]刘瑞.日元国际化困境的深层原因[J].日本学刊,2012,(02):96-111.
[15]李晓.“日元国际化”的困境及其战略调整[J].世界经济,2005,(06):3-18.
[16]菊地悠二,陈建.日元国际化:进程与展望[M].中国人民大学出版社,2002.
[17]余道先,邹彤.人民币国际化的国家异质性分析与人民币国际化进程[J].世界经济研究,2017,(07):3-16.
[18]谢申祥,石慧敏,张铭心.谈判势力与战略性贸易政策[J].世界经济,2016,(07):3-23.
(1)Rogoff(1998)在其文章“Blessing or Curse Foreign and Underground Demand for Euro Notes”中提出,一国的税率水平与该国的地下经济规模有着显著的正相关关系。
[2]Subramanian,A.Eclipe.Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance[M].Peterson Institute,2011.
[3]李建军,甄峰,崔西强.人民币国际化发展现状、程度测度及展望评估[J].国际金融研究,2013,(10):58-65.
[4]中国人民大学国际经济研究所.人民币国际化报告[R].中国人民大学出版社,2014.
[5]片山贞雄,尤冬青.日元的国际化与国际货币问题[J].经济资料译丛,2001,(04):66-70.
[6]中条诚一,郑甘澍.亚洲的日元国际化(下)[J].经济资料译丛,2002,(04):22-26.
[7]石田护.日本失败的教训对中国经济运营的启迪[J].国际贸易译丛,2002,(05):27-32.
[8]中国人民银行人民币现金跨境流动调查课题组.2004年人民币现金跨境流动调查[J].中国金融,2005,(06):38-39.
[9]李德运,龚新蜀.中国新疆与中亚五国边境贸易中人民币区域化初探[J].经济视角:下,2010,(04):7-9.
[10]李继民.人民币境外存量估计——基于ARDL模型的实证分析[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2011,(02):107-114.
[11]沙文兵.汇率变动、贸易地位与人民币境外存量——基于1994-2012年月度数据的实证分析[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2014,(01):3-9.
[12]余道先,王云.人民币国际化进程的影响因素分析——基于国际收支视角[J].世界经济研究,2015,(03).
[13]李婧,管涛,何帆.人民币跨境流通的现状及对中国经济的影响[J].管理世界,2004,(09):45-52.
[14]刘瑞.日元国际化困境的深层原因[J].日本学刊,2012,(02):96-111.
[15]李晓.“日元国际化”的困境及其战略调整[J].世界经济,2005,(06):3-18.
[16]菊地悠二,陈建.日元国际化:进程与展望[M].中国人民大学出版社,2002.
[17]余道先,邹彤.人民币国际化的国家异质性分析与人民币国际化进程[J].世界经济研究,2017,(07):3-16.
[18]谢申祥,石慧敏,张铭心.谈判势力与战略性贸易政策[J].世界经济,2016,(07):3-23.
(1)Rogoff(1998)在其文章“Blessing or Curse Foreign and Underground Demand for Euro Notes”中提出,一国的税率水平与该国的地下经济规模有着显著的正相关关系。