工业开采诱发地震(一):发生机理和影响因素
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摘要
对工业开采诱发地震的机理及其影响因素的研究,为解决社会上对工业开采诱发地震的各种争议,以及有针对性地开展诱发地震的预防、危险性评价、减灾行动、政策制定等方面具有重要意义。本文系统地整理了目前国际上对工业开采诱发地震的成因机理的主要认识和分歧,梳理了影响诱发地震产生的主要因素,以及涉及此类问题的主要研究方式,并介绍了基于上述认识建立的可能的减灾方式,试图为开展此类机理研究和推进减轻破坏性诱发地震灾害提供一定的科学参考。
It is of great significance to study the mechanisms and influencing factors of industrial mining induced earthquakes, so as to solve various social controversies about it and carry out targeted work on the prevention of induced earthquakes, risk assessment, disaster reduction actions and policy formulation. In this study, we systematically collate the main understandings and disputes of the mechanisms on industrial mining induced earthquakes, sort out the main factors affecting the occurrence of it and the ways to study correlated problems, and introduce the possible disaster reduction methods based on the above understanding. We attempt to provide a scientific reference for conducting such mechanism research and promoting the mitigation of destructive disasters caused by induced earthquakes.
It is of great significance to study the mechanisms and influencing factors of industrial mining induced earthquakes, so as to solve various social controversies about it and carry out targeted work on the prevention of induced earthquakes, risk assessment, disaster reduction actions and policy formulation. In this study, we systematically collate the main understandings and disputes of the mechanisms on industrial mining induced earthquakes, sort out the main factors affecting the occurrence of it and the ways to study correlated problems, and introduce the possible disaster reduction methods based on the above understanding. We attempt to provide a scientific reference for conducting such mechanism research and promoting the mitigation of destructive disasters caused by induced earthquakes.
引文
[1]McGarr A.Maximum magnitude earthquakes induced by fluid injection[J].J.Geophys.Res.:Solid Earth,2014,119(2):1008-1019
[2]Hsieh P A,Bredehoeft J D.A reservoir analysis of the denver earthquakes:A case of induced seismicity[J].J.Geophys.Res.:Solid Earth,1981,86(B2):903-920
[3]Lei X L,Yu G Z,Ma S L,et al.Earthquakes induced by water injection at~3 km depth within the Rongchang gas field,Chongqing,China[J].J.Geophys.Res.:Solid Earth,2008,113(B10):310-321
[4]Goertz-Allmann B P,Goertz A,Wiemer S.Stress drop variations of induced earthquakes at the Basel geothermal site[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2011,38(9):L09308
[5]Segall P,Lu S.Injection-induced seismicity:Poroelastic and earthquake nucleation effects[J].J.Geophys.Res.:Solid Earth,2015,120(7):5082-5103
[6]Postma T,Jansen J D.The small effect of poroelastic pressure transients on triggering of production-induced earthquakes in the Groningen natural gas field[J].J.Geophys.Res.:Solid Earth,2018,123(1):401-417
[7]Chang K W,Segall P.Injection induced seismicity on basement faults including poroelastic stressing[J].J.Geophys.Res.:Solid Earth,2016,121(4):2708-2726
[8]Goebel T H W,Walter J I,Murray K,et al.Comment on“How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma responds to decreased saltwater injection rates?”b y C.Langenbruch and M.D.Zoback[J].Sci.Adv.,2017,3(8):e1700441
[9]Goebel T H W,Brodsky E E.The spatial footprint of injection wells in a global compilation of induced earthquake sequences[J].Science,2018,361(6405):899-904
[10]Ellsworth W L.Injection-induced earthquakes[J].Science,2013,341(6142):1225942
[11]Keranen K M,Savage H M,Abers G A,et al.Potentially induced earthquakes in Oklahoma,USA:Links between wastewater injection and the 2011 MW5.7 earthquake sequence[J].Geology,2013,41(6):699-702
[12]Healy J H,Rubey W W,Griggs D T,et al.The Denver earthquakes[J].Science,1968,161(3848):1301-1310
[13]Nicholson C,Wesson R L.Earthquake hazard associated with deep well injection:A report to the USEnvironmental Protection Agency[R].Washington,D.C.,U.S.Geol.Surv.Bull.No 1951,U.S.Gov.Print.Off.,1990
[14]Suckale J.Induced seismicity in hydrocarbon fields[J].Adv.Geophy.,2009,51:55-106
[15]Holland A.Examination of possibly induced seismicity from hydraulic fracturing in the Eola Field,Garvey County,Oklahoma[R].Oklahoma Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept.OF1-2011,2011:28
[16]Eaton D W,Mahani A B.Focal mechanisms of some inferred induced earthquakes in Alberta,Canada[J].Seismol.Res.Lett.,2015,86(4):1078-1085
[17]Farahbod A M,Kao H,Walker D M,et al.Investigation of regional seismicity before and after hydraulic fracturing in the Horn River Basin,northeast British Columbia[J].Can.J.Earth Sci.,2015,52(2):112-122
[18]Skoumal R M,Brudzinski M R,Currie B S.Earthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing in Poland Township,Ohio[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Amer.,2015,105(1):189-197
[19]Frohlich C,Glidewell J,Brunt M.Location and felt reports for the 25 April 2010 mb Lg 3.9 earthquake near Alice,Texas:Was it induced by petroleum production?[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Amer.,2012,102(2):457-466
[20]Frohlich C,Brunt M.Two-year survey of earthquakes and injection/production wells in the Eagle Ford Shale,Texas,prior to the MW4.8 20 October 2011 earthquake[J].Earth Planet.Sci.Lett.,2013,379(5):53-63
[21]Lamontagne M,Lavoie D.Report on the monitoring of micro-earthquakes during the hydraulic fracturing conducted in New Brunswick in August and September 2014[R].Geological Survey of Canada,Open File 7815,2015:40
[22]Rubinstein J L,Mahani A B.Myths and facts on wastewater injection,hydraulic fracturing,enhanced oil recovery,and induced seismicity[J].Seismol.Res.Lett.,2015,86(4):1060-1067
[23]Evans D M.The denier area earthquakes and the rocky mountain arsenal disposal well[J].The Mountain Geologist,1966,3(1):23-36
[24]Improta L,Valoroso L,Piccinini D,et al.A detailed analysis of wastewater-induced seismicity in the Val d’Agri oil field(Italy)[J].Geophy.Res.Lett.,2015,42(8):2682-2690
[25]Johann L,Shapiro S A,Dinske C.The surge of earthquakes in Central Oklahoma has features of reservoir-induced seismicity[J].Scientific Reports,2018,8(1):11505
[26]Hincks T,Aspinall W,Cooke R,et al.Oklahoma's induced seismicity strongly linked to wastewater injection depth[J].Science,2018,359(6381):1251-1255
[27]Burnett J W,Mothorpe C,Jaume S C.Earthquake alley:Unconventional oil and gas development,induced seismic activity,and housing price impacts[J].SSRN Electronic Journal,2018:1-58
[28]Philips M.Why Oklahoma can’t turn off its earthquakes[EB/OL].[2019-3-18].https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-08/why-oklahoma-can-t-turn-off-its-earthquakes,2016
[29]Yeck W L,Hayes G P,McNamara D E,et al.Oklahoma experiences largest earthquake during ongoing regional wastewater injectionhazard mitigation efforts[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2017,44:711-717
[30]Horton S.Disposal of hydrofracking waste fluid by injection into subsurface aquifers triggers earthquake swarm in central Arkansas with potential for damaging earthquake[J].Seismol.Res.Lett.,2012,83(2):250-260
[31]Weingarten M,Ge S,Godt J W,et al.High-rate injection is associated with the increase in U.S.mid-continent seismicity[J].Science,2015,348(6241):1336-1340
[32]Grocholski B.Making quakes depends on injection rates[J].Science,2015,348(6241):1327
[33]G?bel T.A comparison of seismicity rates and fluid-injection operations in Oklahoma and California:Implications for crustal stresses[J].The Leading Edge,2015,34(6):640-648
[34]Moschetti M P,Hartzell S H,Herrmann R B.Rupture model of the M5.8 Pawnee,Oklahoma,earthquake from regional and teleseismic waveforms[J].Geophy.Res.Lett.,2019,46(4):2494-2502
[35]Bachmann C E,Wiemer S,Goertz-Allmann B P,et al.Influence of pore-pressure on the event-size distribution of induced earthquakes[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2012,39(9):L09302
[36]Shapiro S A,Hummel N.Nonlinear diffusion-based interpretation of hydraulic fracturing induced seismicity[C].European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers,2013,C04
[37]Shalev E,Lyakhovsky V.The processes controlling damage zone propagation induced by wellbore fluid injection[J].Geophy.J.Int.,2013,193(1):209-219
[38]Fan Z,Eichhubl P,Gale J F W.Geomechanical analysis of fluid injection and seismic fault slip for the MW4.8Timpson,Texas,earthquake sequence[J].J.Geophy.Res.:Solid Earth,2016,121(4):2798-2812
[39]Gischig V S.Rupture propagation behavior and the largest possible earthquake induced by fluid injection into deep reservoirs[J].Geophy.Res.Lett.,2015,42(18):7420-7428
[40]Tan Y Y,Zhang H J,Li J L,et al.Focal mechanism determination for induced seismicity using the neighbourhood algorithm[J].Geophy.J.Int.,2018,214(3):1715-1731
[41]Toshiko T.Evolution of pore fluid pressures in a stimulated geothermal reservoir inferred from earthquake focal mechanisms[J].Geophy.Res.Lett.,2014,41(21):7468-7476
[42]Troiano A,Di Giuseppe M G,Troise C,et al.A Coulomb stress model for induced seismicity distribution due to fluid injection and withdrawal in deep boreholes[J].Geophy.J.Int.,2013,195(1):504-512
[43]Dieterich J.A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering[J].J.Geophys.Res.:Solid Earth,1994,99(B2):2601-2618
[44]Raleigh C B,Healy J H,Bredehoeft J D.An experiment in earthquake control at Rangely,Colorado[J].Science,1976,191(4233):1230-1237
[2]Hsieh P A,Bredehoeft J D.A reservoir analysis of the denver earthquakes:A case of induced seismicity[J].J.Geophys.Res.:Solid Earth,1981,86(B2):903-920
[3]Lei X L,Yu G Z,Ma S L,et al.Earthquakes induced by water injection at~3 km depth within the Rongchang gas field,Chongqing,China[J].J.Geophys.Res.:Solid Earth,2008,113(B10):310-321
[4]Goertz-Allmann B P,Goertz A,Wiemer S.Stress drop variations of induced earthquakes at the Basel geothermal site[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2011,38(9):L09308
[5]Segall P,Lu S.Injection-induced seismicity:Poroelastic and earthquake nucleation effects[J].J.Geophys.Res.:Solid Earth,2015,120(7):5082-5103
[6]Postma T,Jansen J D.The small effect of poroelastic pressure transients on triggering of production-induced earthquakes in the Groningen natural gas field[J].J.Geophys.Res.:Solid Earth,2018,123(1):401-417
[7]Chang K W,Segall P.Injection induced seismicity on basement faults including poroelastic stressing[J].J.Geophys.Res.:Solid Earth,2016,121(4):2708-2726
[8]Goebel T H W,Walter J I,Murray K,et al.Comment on“How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma responds to decreased saltwater injection rates?”b y C.Langenbruch and M.D.Zoback[J].Sci.Adv.,2017,3(8):e1700441
[9]Goebel T H W,Brodsky E E.The spatial footprint of injection wells in a global compilation of induced earthquake sequences[J].Science,2018,361(6405):899-904
[10]Ellsworth W L.Injection-induced earthquakes[J].Science,2013,341(6142):1225942
[11]Keranen K M,Savage H M,Abers G A,et al.Potentially induced earthquakes in Oklahoma,USA:Links between wastewater injection and the 2011 MW5.7 earthquake sequence[J].Geology,2013,41(6):699-702
[12]Healy J H,Rubey W W,Griggs D T,et al.The Denver earthquakes[J].Science,1968,161(3848):1301-1310
[13]Nicholson C,Wesson R L.Earthquake hazard associated with deep well injection:A report to the USEnvironmental Protection Agency[R].Washington,D.C.,U.S.Geol.Surv.Bull.No 1951,U.S.Gov.Print.Off.,1990
[14]Suckale J.Induced seismicity in hydrocarbon fields[J].Adv.Geophy.,2009,51:55-106
[15]Holland A.Examination of possibly induced seismicity from hydraulic fracturing in the Eola Field,Garvey County,Oklahoma[R].Oklahoma Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept.OF1-2011,2011:28
[16]Eaton D W,Mahani A B.Focal mechanisms of some inferred induced earthquakes in Alberta,Canada[J].Seismol.Res.Lett.,2015,86(4):1078-1085
[17]Farahbod A M,Kao H,Walker D M,et al.Investigation of regional seismicity before and after hydraulic fracturing in the Horn River Basin,northeast British Columbia[J].Can.J.Earth Sci.,2015,52(2):112-122
[18]Skoumal R M,Brudzinski M R,Currie B S.Earthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing in Poland Township,Ohio[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Amer.,2015,105(1):189-197
[19]Frohlich C,Glidewell J,Brunt M.Location and felt reports for the 25 April 2010 mb Lg 3.9 earthquake near Alice,Texas:Was it induced by petroleum production?[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Amer.,2012,102(2):457-466
[20]Frohlich C,Brunt M.Two-year survey of earthquakes and injection/production wells in the Eagle Ford Shale,Texas,prior to the MW4.8 20 October 2011 earthquake[J].Earth Planet.Sci.Lett.,2013,379(5):53-63
[21]Lamontagne M,Lavoie D.Report on the monitoring of micro-earthquakes during the hydraulic fracturing conducted in New Brunswick in August and September 2014[R].Geological Survey of Canada,Open File 7815,2015:40
[22]Rubinstein J L,Mahani A B.Myths and facts on wastewater injection,hydraulic fracturing,enhanced oil recovery,and induced seismicity[J].Seismol.Res.Lett.,2015,86(4):1060-1067
[23]Evans D M.The denier area earthquakes and the rocky mountain arsenal disposal well[J].The Mountain Geologist,1966,3(1):23-36
[24]Improta L,Valoroso L,Piccinini D,et al.A detailed analysis of wastewater-induced seismicity in the Val d’Agri oil field(Italy)[J].Geophy.Res.Lett.,2015,42(8):2682-2690
[25]Johann L,Shapiro S A,Dinske C.The surge of earthquakes in Central Oklahoma has features of reservoir-induced seismicity[J].Scientific Reports,2018,8(1):11505
[26]Hincks T,Aspinall W,Cooke R,et al.Oklahoma's induced seismicity strongly linked to wastewater injection depth[J].Science,2018,359(6381):1251-1255
[27]Burnett J W,Mothorpe C,Jaume S C.Earthquake alley:Unconventional oil and gas development,induced seismic activity,and housing price impacts[J].SSRN Electronic Journal,2018:1-58
[28]Philips M.Why Oklahoma can’t turn off its earthquakes[EB/OL].[2019-3-18].https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-08/why-oklahoma-can-t-turn-off-its-earthquakes,2016
[29]Yeck W L,Hayes G P,McNamara D E,et al.Oklahoma experiences largest earthquake during ongoing regional wastewater injectionhazard mitigation efforts[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2017,44:711-717
[30]Horton S.Disposal of hydrofracking waste fluid by injection into subsurface aquifers triggers earthquake swarm in central Arkansas with potential for damaging earthquake[J].Seismol.Res.Lett.,2012,83(2):250-260
[31]Weingarten M,Ge S,Godt J W,et al.High-rate injection is associated with the increase in U.S.mid-continent seismicity[J].Science,2015,348(6241):1336-1340
[32]Grocholski B.Making quakes depends on injection rates[J].Science,2015,348(6241):1327
[33]G?bel T.A comparison of seismicity rates and fluid-injection operations in Oklahoma and California:Implications for crustal stresses[J].The Leading Edge,2015,34(6):640-648
[34]Moschetti M P,Hartzell S H,Herrmann R B.Rupture model of the M5.8 Pawnee,Oklahoma,earthquake from regional and teleseismic waveforms[J].Geophy.Res.Lett.,2019,46(4):2494-2502
[35]Bachmann C E,Wiemer S,Goertz-Allmann B P,et al.Influence of pore-pressure on the event-size distribution of induced earthquakes[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2012,39(9):L09302
[36]Shapiro S A,Hummel N.Nonlinear diffusion-based interpretation of hydraulic fracturing induced seismicity[C].European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers,2013,C04
[37]Shalev E,Lyakhovsky V.The processes controlling damage zone propagation induced by wellbore fluid injection[J].Geophy.J.Int.,2013,193(1):209-219
[38]Fan Z,Eichhubl P,Gale J F W.Geomechanical analysis of fluid injection and seismic fault slip for the MW4.8Timpson,Texas,earthquake sequence[J].J.Geophy.Res.:Solid Earth,2016,121(4):2798-2812
[39]Gischig V S.Rupture propagation behavior and the largest possible earthquake induced by fluid injection into deep reservoirs[J].Geophy.Res.Lett.,2015,42(18):7420-7428
[40]Tan Y Y,Zhang H J,Li J L,et al.Focal mechanism determination for induced seismicity using the neighbourhood algorithm[J].Geophy.J.Int.,2018,214(3):1715-1731
[41]Toshiko T.Evolution of pore fluid pressures in a stimulated geothermal reservoir inferred from earthquake focal mechanisms[J].Geophy.Res.Lett.,2014,41(21):7468-7476
[42]Troiano A,Di Giuseppe M G,Troise C,et al.A Coulomb stress model for induced seismicity distribution due to fluid injection and withdrawal in deep boreholes[J].Geophy.J.Int.,2013,195(1):504-512
[43]Dieterich J.A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering[J].J.Geophys.Res.:Solid Earth,1994,99(B2):2601-2618
[44]Raleigh C B,Healy J H,Bredehoeft J D.An experiment in earthquake control at Rangely,Colorado[J].Science,1976,191(4233):1230-1237
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