1961～2016年四川盆地夏季高温热浪变化特征分析
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摘要
利用27个测站逐日最高气温资料,对1961～2016年四川盆地夏季高温热浪的时空演变特征进行研究。结果表明:(1)四川盆地高温热浪频次、强度和持续时间均呈增加趋势,其中热浪强度的增加趋势最为显著。三者都经历了先较弱增加后明显减少再明显增加的年代际变化过程。20世纪80年代是热浪低发期,2010～2016年为明显高发期。(2)盆地高温热浪气候平均空间分布大致呈东南多(强)西北少(弱),空间差异显著,多发区主要集中在重庆西南部一带。三项指标除盆地东南边缘小部分为减少趋势外,基本呈增加趋势,增幅大值带均沿重庆北部至四川南部呈东北-西南走向。相比而言,盆地西部增加趋势比盆地东部更加显著。(3)盆地高温热浪频次、强度和持续时间均存在显著的年际变化周期,且具有较为一致的2年周期。相关分析表明,三者均与西太平洋副高脊线和北界位置存在显著的正相关。
Based on the daily observational summer maximum temperature data at 27 stations from 1961 to 2016,we have discussed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of summer heat waves in Sichuan Basin by using the methods of trend analysis and wavelet analysis and so on. The results show that: 1) The frequency, intensity and duration of summer heat waves in Sichuan basin present an detectable increase, and the trend of intensity is the most significant. All of them show an distinct decadal revolution of weakly increasing—obviously decreasing in the 1960 s to 1980 s,while abruptly increasing from the 1990 s up to now. 2)The spatial distribution of climatic summer heat waves are generally characterized by less(weak) northwest and more(strong) southeast.The features of spatial difference are significant. High frequency and intensity of heat waves are mainly observed in the southwestern Chongqing. In the past 56 years, the summer heat waves in most areas of Sichuan Basin have increased, except for a small part of the southeastern margin areas. The large-value bands of increase are northeast-southwest along the north part of Chongqing to the south of Sichuan province. In contrast, the increase of heat waves in the west part of the basin is more significant than that in the eastern. 3) Wavelet analysis indicates that there are significant inter-annual variations in the heat waves frequency, intensity and duration, and they have a relatively consistent two-year cycle. Correlation analyses show that there are significant simultaneous positive correlation between the heat waves and western Pacific subtropical high ridge line and northern boundary.
Based on the daily observational summer maximum temperature data at 27 stations from 1961 to 2016,we have discussed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of summer heat waves in Sichuan Basin by using the methods of trend analysis and wavelet analysis and so on. The results show that: 1) The frequency, intensity and duration of summer heat waves in Sichuan basin present an detectable increase, and the trend of intensity is the most significant. All of them show an distinct decadal revolution of weakly increasing—obviously decreasing in the 1960 s to 1980 s,while abruptly increasing from the 1990 s up to now. 2)The spatial distribution of climatic summer heat waves are generally characterized by less(weak) northwest and more(strong) southeast.The features of spatial difference are significant. High frequency and intensity of heat waves are mainly observed in the southwestern Chongqing. In the past 56 years, the summer heat waves in most areas of Sichuan Basin have increased, except for a small part of the southeastern margin areas. The large-value bands of increase are northeast-southwest along the north part of Chongqing to the south of Sichuan province. In contrast, the increase of heat waves in the west part of the basin is more significant than that in the eastern. 3) Wavelet analysis indicates that there are significant inter-annual variations in the heat waves frequency, intensity and duration, and they have a relatively consistent two-year cycle. Correlation analyses show that there are significant simultaneous positive correlation between the heat waves and western Pacific subtropical high ridge line and northern boundary.
引文
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[20] 李琪,苏欢,史雨涵,等.1961—2010 年江浙沪地区夏季高温热浪时空变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(3):506-512
[21] 叶殿秀,尹继福,陈正洪,等.1961～2010 年我国夏季高温热浪的时空变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):15-20
[22] 肖嗣荣,张可慧,刘芳圆,等.石家庄市高温热浪与“三大火炉”城市的对比研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2010,26(5):87-92
[23] 傅帅,蒋勇,张小泉,等.近64 年长沙市高温热浪事件统计分析[J].气象科技,2016,44(6):991-997
[24] Allan R,Lindesay J,Parker D.El Niňo southern oscillation & climatic variability [M].Australia:CSIRO Publishing,1998:405
[25] 陈隆勋,赵平.海气陆相互作用的准四年振荡机制[J].气象科学,2000,20(3):249-259
[26] Wilson R C,Hudson H S.Sun luminosity variations in solar cycle 21[J].Nature,1988,332:810-812
[27] 郭渠,孙卫国,程炳岩,等.重庆近48 年来高温天气气候特征及其环流形势[J].长江流域资源与环境,2009,18(1):52-59
[28] 程炳岩,孙卫国,郭渠.重庆地区夏季高温的气候特征与环流形势分析[J].西南大学学报 (自然科学版),2010,32(1):73-80
[29] 赵文虎,孙卫国,程炳岩.近50年川渝地区的气温变化及其原因分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(3):59-67
[30] 胡豪然,李跃清.近50 年来川渝地区夏季高温及严重干燥事件分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(7):832-838
[31] 刘晓冉,程炳岩,张天宇,等.近46年重庆地区气温变化特征分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2009,29(1):39-43
[2] 秦大河,STOCKER T,259 名作者和TSU( 驻伯尔尼和北京).IPCC 第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1) :1-6
[3] 祁新华,程煜,李达谋,等.西方高温热浪研究述评[J].生态学报,2016,36(9):2773-2778
[4] 金志凤,杨太明,李仁忠.浙江省高温热害发生规律及其对早稻产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(4):628-631
[5] 宣守丽,石春林,刘杨,等.自然环境高温对长江中下游地区中稻结实率的影响及模拟[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(1):73-77
[6] 梁嘉荧,蔡一霞.高温干旱对水稻产量、品质及剑叶生理特性影响研究综述[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(27):1-6
[7] 吴振鹏,武媛,李乃杰,等.1999年北京持续高温天气过程的诊断分析[J].气象与环境科学,2016,39(1):82-88
[8] 周长艳,张顺谦,齐冬梅,等.近50年四川高温变化特征及其影响[J].高原气象,2013,32(6):1720-1728
[9] 周长春,汪丽,郭善云,等.四川盆地高温热浪时空特征及预报模型研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2014,34(3):51-57
[10] 江玉华,程炳岩,邓承之,等.重庆市严重伏旱气候特征分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2009,29(1):31-38
[11] 胡豪然,毛晓亮,梁玲.近50年川渝地区夏季极端高温事件的时空演变特征[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(3):15-20
[12] 谈建国,陆晨,陈正洪.高温热浪与人体健康[M].北京:气象出版社,2009:2-3
[13] 谈建国,郑有飞,彭丽,等.城市热岛对上海夏季高温热浪的影响[J].高原气象,2008,27(S):144-149
[14] 徐金芳,邓振镛,陈敏.中国高温热浪危害特征的研究综述[J].干旱气象,2009,27(2):163-167
[15] 张曦,黎鑫.湖南省夏季高温热浪时空分布特征及其成因[J].气候与环境研究,2017,22 (6):747-756
[16] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:105-124
[17] TORRENCE C,COMPO G P.A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1998,79(1):61-78
[18] 陈敏,耿福海,马雷鸣,等.近138年上海地区高温热浪事件分析[J].高原气象,2013,32 (2):597–607
[19] 王喜元,闫业超,岳书平,等.1961～2010 年长江流域高温热浪时空变化特征[J].云南大学学报 (自然科学版),2016,38(4):602–609
[20] 李琪,苏欢,史雨涵,等.1961—2010 年江浙沪地区夏季高温热浪时空变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(3):506-512
[21] 叶殿秀,尹继福,陈正洪,等.1961～2010 年我国夏季高温热浪的时空变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):15-20
[22] 肖嗣荣,张可慧,刘芳圆,等.石家庄市高温热浪与“三大火炉”城市的对比研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2010,26(5):87-92
[23] 傅帅,蒋勇,张小泉,等.近64 年长沙市高温热浪事件统计分析[J].气象科技,2016,44(6):991-997
[24] Allan R,Lindesay J,Parker D.El Niňo southern oscillation & climatic variability [M].Australia:CSIRO Publishing,1998:405
[25] 陈隆勋,赵平.海气陆相互作用的准四年振荡机制[J].气象科学,2000,20(3):249-259
[26] Wilson R C,Hudson H S.Sun luminosity variations in solar cycle 21[J].Nature,1988,332:810-812
[27] 郭渠,孙卫国,程炳岩,等.重庆近48 年来高温天气气候特征及其环流形势[J].长江流域资源与环境,2009,18(1):52-59
[28] 程炳岩,孙卫国,郭渠.重庆地区夏季高温的气候特征与环流形势分析[J].西南大学学报 (自然科学版),2010,32(1):73-80
[29] 赵文虎,孙卫国,程炳岩.近50年川渝地区的气温变化及其原因分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(3):59-67
[30] 胡豪然,李跃清.近50 年来川渝地区夏季高温及严重干燥事件分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(7):832-838
[31] 刘晓冉,程炳岩,张天宇,等.近46年重庆地区气温变化特征分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2009,29(1):39-43